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Mohammadi, Ramjugernath.-Rapid Model For The Estimation of Dew Point Pressures in Gas Condensate Systems
Mohammadi, Ramjugernath.-Rapid Model For The Estimation of Dew Point Pressures in Gas Condensate Systems
Mohammadi, Ramjugernath.-Rapid Model For The Estimation of Dew Point Pressures in Gas Condensate Systems
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a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The production of condensate, in addition to gas can improve the recovery factor of gas condensate reservoirs,
Received 16 April 2015 as well as increase the economic feasibility of the reservoir. Dew point pressure (DPP) is regarded as one of
Revised 8 September 2015
the vital parameters for characterizing a gas condensate reservoir. The accurate estimation of DPP is however
Accepted 6 October 2015
still a major challenge for reservoir engineers. In this study, a consistent, accurate, and simple-to-use model
Available online xxx
is proposed for the prediction of DPP in gas condensate reservoirs using a reliable soft-computing approach
Keywords: known as gene expression programming (GEP). The computational approach utilizes a comprehensive dataset
Dew point pressure of DPP, as well as properties of C7+ , reservoir temperature, and hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon reservoir
Temperature fluid compositions. The model proposed is compared to three well-known empirical correlations. The pro-
Gene expression programming (GEP) posed model produces an average absolute relative deviation of approximately 7.88% and is clearly superior
Empirical correlation to previously published methods for the prediction of dew point pressure in gas condensate reservoirs.
Gas condensate reservoir
© 2015 Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1 1. Introduction pressure. In this type of DPP, with a decrease in dew point pressure, 21
at a specific pressure liquids start to form. At such a condition, the 22
2 There is a growing realization of the importance of gas condensate single phase fluid transforms into a liquid and gas phase. This pres- 23
3 reservoirs as a considerable hydrocarbon resource in terms of energy sure is often called the dew point or saturation pressure. By further 24
4 supply. In these reservoirs, well deliverability often reduces when the decreasing the pressure, the volume of liquid reaches a maximum. 25
5 bottom-hole pressure drops below the dew point pressure (DPP). As a Further decrease of pressure causes vaporization of the condensates 26
6 definition, dew point pressure is the pressure at which a considerably and consequently a decrease in the amount of liquid. Such reservoirs 27
7 larger amount of the gas phase is in equilibrium with a significantly are called retrograde condensate gas reservoirs [4]. The phase dia- 28
8 smaller amount of liquid phase [1]. As a result, the dew point pressure gram for gas condensate reservoirs clearly shows this behavior (Fig. 29
9 plays a significant role in hydrocarbon reservoir engineering, result- 1). Therefore, it can be concluded that the first type of dew point pres- 30
10 ing in the reservoirs being classified using dew point pressure. Gas sure does not matter in the performance of gas reservoirs, while the 31
11 condensate reservoirs are different in their thermodynamic and flow second type is very important in gas well performance. 32
12 behavior compared to common gas reservoirs. As a consequence, the accurate prediction of dew point pressure 33
13 In the operation of gas reservoirs, there are two kinds of dew in gas condensate reservoirs is important to evaluate their perfor- 34
14 points that engineers are focused on [2,3]. The first type is the nor- mance because of a reduction in the rate of gas condensate produc- 35
15 mal dew point pressure which occurs at low pressures when dry gas tion with an increase of liquid [5]. A number of researchers have stud- 36
16 is compressed to a point at which the first droplets begin to form. This ied the effect of dew point pressure on well productivity, e.g. Fevang 37
17 type of dew point pressure is not important for engineers because [6], Afidick and Bette. [7], Fan et al. [8], Barnum et al. [9], and Eil- 38
Q2
18 the pressure to achieve this dew point pressure is lower than atmo- erts and Smits [10]. The studies conclude that there is a considerable 39
19 spheric pressure, while the pressure of reservoirs are greater than at- reduction in well generation in gas condensate wells under certain 40
20 mospheric pressure [3,4]. The second type is retrograde dew point conditions, e.g. near wellbore condensate aggregation. The determi- 41
nation of the dew point pressure in gas condensate reservoirs has 42
∗
been investigated by several researchers who have attempted to de- 43
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: arash.kamari@yahoo.com (A. Kamari), a.h.m@irgcp.fr,
termine this important property either experimentally or theoreti- 44
amir_h_mohammadi@yahoo.com (A.H. Mohammadi), ramjuger@ukzn.ac.za cally. For the determination of the DPP experimentally, the constant 45
(D. Ramjugernath). composition expansion (CCE) and constant volume depletion (CVD) 46
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
1876-1070/© 2015 Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Table 1
Ranges, averages and units of the variables implemented for the development of the
Nomenclature
GEP-based model for the prediction of dew point pressures.
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Fig. 3. Comparison between the data calculated by Eq. (1) and actual magnitudes of dew point pressures with regard to line Y = X and residual error percentage.
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Fig. 4. Comparison between the data calculated by the Nemeth and Kennedy’s model [42] and actual magnitudes of dew point pressures with regard to line Y = X and residual
error percentage.
132 3. Dataset chemical engineering disciplines. The GA works on the same princi- 153
ples as the human brain and body’s genetic coding to define individu- 154
133 The DPP in gas condensate reservoirs is strongly influenced by the als, and Darwin’s rule to solve the desired problem [28]. Replacement 155
134 properties of C7+ (molecular and specific gravity), reservoir tempera- of the present populations related to a solution with new solutions 156
Q3
135 ture, and compositions of hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon com- is done by progressing the optimization process. A major difference 157
136 ponents [1,15,18,23,25,26]. An extensive dataset is thus required if between genetic algorithm modeling and numerical modeling is the 158
137 one want to develop a good correlative model. A comprehensive arrangement of variables; the arrangement of variables in GA is the 159
138 databank consisting of 562 experimental data [27] for DPP obtained genotype while in the numerical modeling it is the phenotype [29]. 160
139 from CVD tests was collected. The database comprises the values for Over the years, the GA evolutionary mathematical approach has 161
140 DPP (Pd , Psia), molecular weight for heptane plus fractions (MWC7+ ), been modified and a new form, namely genetic programming (GP), 162
141 reservoir temperature (TR ,°F), specific gravity for heptane plus frac- introduced. The GP approach has been increasingly employed to solve 163
142 tions (SGC7+ ), compositions of hydrocarbons including methane (C1 ), complex and/or relatively simple problems in engineering targets 164
143 ethane (C2 ), propane (C3 ), butanes (C4 ), pentanes (C5 ), hexanes (C6 ), [30–32]. Later, the GEP evolutionary soft-computing technique was 165
144 heptane-plus (C7+ ), and compositions of non-hydrocarbons including presented by Ferreira [11]. The GP approach uses parse trees to rep- 166
145 nitrogen (N2 ), carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and hydrogen sulfide (H2 S). Table resent the solutions, while they are characterized as numbers in GA 167
146 1 summarizes the ranges, averages, and units of the abovementioned techniques [33]. As a result, the population individuals in the GP com- 168
147 parameters. As can be seen in Table 1, the parameters presented cover putational scheme are symbolic expression trees (ETs) [34], while 169
148 a wide range of DPP, reservoir temperature, etc. they are linear chromosomes in the GEP approach, which are later 170
translated into the ETs [35]. Functions (arithmetic operations) and 171
149 4. Methodology for model development terminals (variables) and constants are two main elements of a gene 172
for chromosomes in GEP approaches, involving a head and tail [36]. 173
150 In recent years, genetic algorithms (GA) have been widely imple- In other words, the GEP approach processes the problems by using 174
151 mented as a reliable intelligent optimization method to solve regres- two entities including the ETs and the chromosomes. To demonstrate 175
152 sion and classification problems, in particular in the petroleum and the GEP approach, an example is provided where w, j and v can be 176
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Fig. 5. Comparison between the data calculated by the Shokir’s model [1] and actual magnitudes of dew point pressures with regard to line Y = X and residual error percentage.
177 considered as the terminals, as well as –, +, / can be expressed for tion). Therefore, about 80% of the available data points were assigned 202
178 the functions. Fig. 2 indicates a chromosome built of two genes with for the training, learning and model development stage and the re- 203
179 algebraic expression considering the Karva language. maining 20% of the data was categorized as validation or test data. To 204
180 In order to produce the new generation, with a minimum ex- evaluate the quality of a desired solution, an appropriate fitness func- 205
181 pected deviation using the GEP algorithm, the most commonly- tion is set during the prediction process by GEP algorithm [37]. Two 206
182 used genetic operators include selection, replacement, mutation, and reliable fitness functions, namely R-squared error and average abso- 207
183 crossover [37]. The selection operator in the GEP algorithm is applied lute relative deviation (AARD) were used to evaluate the performance 208
184 for increasing the possible survival, using the fitness of individuals of the GEP algorithm in the prediction of DPP. 209
185 [38]. In other words, it helps to improve the solving of the problem
186 at hand. The mutation operator is applied to prevent the convergence 5. Result and discussion 210
187 problem in the first steps of running the algorithm and also to im-
188 prove the variety of the expressions [39]. Additionally, the crossover 5.1. The proposed model 211
189 operator influences the structures in the populations and converts
190 the arrangements of instructions between two tournament winners As indicated earlier, there are a number of different factors which 212
191 [40]. Replacement enables timeworn populations which have a high affect the prediction capability of GEP-based models. Hence, many 213
192 deviation in order to be replaced with new individuals. The process attempts and computation run on a trial and error basis were per- 214
193 of effecting genetic operations continues until an acceptable and ac- formed to obtain an optimum and acceptable model in terms of preci- 215
194 curate result is reached. sion and simplicity. During the development of the GEP-based model 216
195 In the development of a model for DPP in gas condensate reser- for the prediction of DPP in gas condensate reservoirs, it was noticed 217
196 voirs by applying the GEP methodology, the collected dataset is di- that an increase in the number of permitted genes in the applied in- 218
197 vided into two groups of data, namely the training and test sets. dividual, and also the maximum depth of ET, has an effect on the do- 219
198 The training dataset is employed in the development/learning of the main size of the solution space; the complexity of the evolved func- 220
199 model (i.e. to fit the GEP model evolution). The test or validation tion rises and the run-time of the process also increases. The preci- 221
200 dataset is utilized for evaluating the capability and the prediction sion of models developed based on the GEP evolutionary approach 222
201 performance of the learned GEP-based model (i.e. external evalua- normally also depends on those factors, in that precision is increased 223
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Fig. 6. Comparison between the data calculated by the Elsharkawy’s model [41] and actual magnitudes of dew point pressures with regard to line Y = X and residual error
percentage.
Fig. 7. The performance of Eq. (1), as well as the comparative methods in predicting dew point pressures with respect to AARD.
224 with an increase in the number of genes and the depth of ET. Conse- anes, heptane-plus, and compositions of non-hydrocarbons including 230
225 quently, we applied two genes, AARD and R-squared as fitness func- nitrogen, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide were used as input vari- 231
226 tions, and a function set including ∗, +, –, ln and / in order to develop ables. The optimum GEP-based model obtained for the estimation of 232
227 the GEP-based model. Specific gravity and molecular weight for hep- DPP in gas condensate reservoirs is as follows: 233
228 tane plus fractions, reservoir temperature, compositions of hydrocar-
229 bons including methane, ethane, propane, butanes, pentanes, hex-
Pd = A + B (1)
13.145 − 4.942 ZC1 + 1961.7 ZC2 − 6212.71 ZC4 + 39335.07 (ZC4 ) + 2097 ZC5 − 3451.17 ZC6 + 201.93ZH2 S − 0.065224TR
2
A= (2)
0.0031904 TR + 0.094398
234
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
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Fig. 8. The performance of Eq. (1), as well as the comparative methods in predicting dew point pressures with respect to the study of the influence of temperature on dew point
pressure trend.
Fig. 9. Determination of doubtful data points in the dew point pressure dataset, collected during development of the GEP-based scheme, using Hat values.
1367.4 + 9.98 ZC1 MWC7+ − 1697.6 ZC3 − 5096.8 ZC7 + 358.07 ln (ZC7+ ) + 933.35 ZCO2 + 1909.7 ZN2
B= (3)
1.0214 − SGC7+
235 where Pd (Psia) denotes the DPP in gas condensate reservoirs, Eq. (1), as well as a relative error distribution plot is presented. Table 2 248
236 MWC7+ is the molecular weight of the heptane-plus fraction, SGC7+ summarizes the calculated errors for data predicted by the GEP-based 249
237 is the specific gravity of heptane plus fraction, TR is reservoir tem- model developed for DPP in gas condensate reservoirs. The proposed 250
238 perature (°F) and ZC1 , ZC2 , ZC3 , ZC4 , ZC5 , ZC6 , ZC7 + , ZCO2 , ZN2 , ZH2 S are model based on the GEP approach has an overall AARD of 7.8% and an 251
239 compositions of methane, ethane, propane, butanes, pentanes, hex- R-squared equal to 0.89. These values are acceptable for the proposed 252
240 anes, heptane-plus, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and hydrogen sulfide, model taking into account the dataset used in its development. Fig. 253
241 respectively. 3 shows the cross-plot of the actual data against the predicted val- 254
242 5.2. Capability and precision evaluation ues using Eq. (1), as well as the relative error distribution plot. As can 255
be seen in Fig. 3, there is good agreement between the actual data 256
243 In order to evaluate the capability of the model in predicting DPP, and values calculated using the GEP-based model proposed in this 257
244 we used some important error functions including AARD, R-squared study. There is an acceptable match, as observed in the top panel of 258
245 (R2 ), average relative deviation (ARD), root mean square error (RMSE) Fig. 3 between the reported and DPP values estimated using the GEP 259
246 and standard deviation (SD). Furthermore, a graphical analysis, in model. Additionally, the bottom panel of Fig. 3 illustrates satisfactory 260
247 terms of cross-plot of actual data against the predicted values, using distribution of relative deviation around the zero line. 261
Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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Please cite this article as: A. Kamari et al., Rapid model for the estimation of dew point pressures in gas condensate systems, Journal of the
Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtice.2015.10.011
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