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Deforestation, Carbon dioxide increase in the

atmosphere and global warming: A modelling
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Prabir Panja

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODELLING AND SIMULATION
https://doi.org/10.1080/02286203.2019.1707501

ARTICLE

Deforestation, Carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere and global warming: A

modelling study
Prabir Panja
Department of Applied Science, Haldia Institute of Technology, Haldia, India

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

In this paper, a mathematical model has been formulated by considering carbon dioxide in the Received 26 April 2019
atmosphere, human population, forest biomass and global warming as separate compartments. It is Accepted 18 December 2019
assumed that human and forest biomasses grow logistically. It is assumed that the growth rate of KEYWORDS
human population is affected by global warming through different natural and human activities. Also, Carbon dioxide; human
it is considered that global warming of the environment increases gradually due to the increase of population; forest biomass;
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as well as deforestation. Different equilibrium points have been global warming; stability;
determined. Also, the stability of our proposed system has been explored around these equilibrium Hopf bifurcation
points. Hopf bifurcation analysis have been done with respect to some important parameters of our
proposed model. Finally, some numerical simulation results have been presented to verify our
theoretical results.

1. Introduction In Kenya, deforestation has led to an increase in malaria

Deforestation is the clearing of Earth’s forests on
a massive scale. The most important reason of deforesta-
tion is agriculture. Farmers cut down forest biomass to
supply more area for planting crops or grazing livestock.
To make the different products in logging operations,
huge amount of forest biomass are cutting down day
by day. All the way of deforestation is not intentional.
Different combinations of human and natural factors are
also responsible for deforestation such as wildfires and
subsequent overgrazing, which may prevent the growth
of young trees. Deforestation may have a negative effect
on the natural environment. Most of the Earth’s land
animals and plants live in forests. Many of them cannot
survive the deforestation that destroys their natural
homes. Deforestation also drives the global climate
change. Deforestation eliminates a huge number of spe-
cies of plants and animals which also often results in an
increase in disease [1]. Often the destruction of predatory
species can result in an increase in rodent populations
which can carry plague. Also, erosion can produce pools
of stagnant water that are perfect breeding grounds for
mosquitos, well-known vectors of malaria, yellow fever,
nipah virus etc. [2–4]. Deforestation is occurring all over
the world and has been coupled with an increase in the
occurrence of disease outbreaks. In Malaysia, thousands
of acres of forest have been cleared for pig farms. This has
resulted in an increase in the zoonosis the Nipah virus [5].
cases which is now the leading cause of morbidity and
mortality the country [6]. A 2017 study in the American
Economic Review found that deforestation substantially
increased the incidence of malaria in Nigeria [7]. From
this literature survey, it can be said that deforestation has
a big role in the global climate change as well as on the
human population.
Global warming is the current increase in tempera-
ture of the Earth’s surface (both land and water) as well
as its atmosphere. Average temperatures around the
world have risen by 0.75°C (1.4°F) over the last
100 years about two-thirds of this increase has occurred
since 1975 [8]. The natural greenhouse effect maintains
the Earth’s temperature at a safe level, making it possible
for humans and many other life forms to exist.
However, since the Industrial Revolution, human activ-
ities have significantly enhanced the greenhouse effect
causing the Earth’s average temperature to rise by
almost 1°C [9]. This is creating the global warming we
see today. The cause of global warming is the increasing
quantity of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere pro-
duced by human activities, like the burning of fossil
fuels or deforestation. These activities produce large
amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, which are caus-
ing global warming. One of the most visible effects of
global warming can be seen in the Arctic as glaciers,
permafrost and sea ice are melting rapidly [10–12].

CONTACT Prabir Panja prabirpanja@gmail.com Department of Applied Science, Haldia Institute of Technology, Purba Medinipur, Haldia, West Bengal
721657, India
© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 P. PANJA
There are also some research articles [13–17] which
discuss the causes and effects of global warming on
human beings as well as earth temperature. Global
warming is harming the environment in several ways,
including desertification, increased melting of snow and
ice, sea level rise, stronger hurricanes and cyclones, and
forests, farms and cities will face troublesome new pests,
heat waves, heavy downpour and increased flooding. All
these factors will damage or destroy agriculture and
fisheries as well as human populations. In 2009, van
der Werf et al. [18] published a research article on global
warming. He claimed that carbon dioxide increases in
the atmosphere due to forest loss may increase global
warming. There are some studies [19–22] which suggest
that carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere is one of
the main reasons for global warming.
From the above literature survey, it is seen that the
global warming has a significant effect on different preda-
tor–prey dynamical system on animals as well as human
populations. In 2015, Panja and Mondal [23] studied
a predator–prey interaction model among Phytoplankton,
Zooplankton and Fish population. After that, Panja et al.
[24] investigated the impacts of anti-predator behaviour of
the predator–prey system by using mathematical models.
Then, Panja et al. [25] studied the effects of toxicants on
phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish dynamics and also on
the fish harvesting. The impacts of global temperature
change in the predator–prey system have been studied by
some researchers [26–31]. From the literature survey, it is
observed that there are very few amount of research paper
on mathematical modelling where global warming is con-
sidered. So in this paper, our objective is to study mathe-
matically the impacts of deforestation and global warming
on human population.
2. Model formulation
Forests are very much essential for life, home for mil-
lions of species throughout the world. Also, forests
produce oxygen, store carbon dioxide and help to
make the balance of oxygen, carbon dioxide in the
environment. Forests are also vital for human beings
to live as they provide us with food, shelter and medi-
cines as well as many other useful things. During photo-
synthesis, they produce oxygen which is very much
essential to survive for human beings. Due to rapid
increase of human population, industrialization etc.,
deforestation increases day by day. Deforestation
damages the atmosphere and also plays a huge role in
the carbon cycle on our world. When the forests are cut
down and the woods burned, then the carbon stored in
the trees is released into the atmosphere. It is experi-
mentally proved that smaller crops and agricultural
crops also draw in carbon dioxide and release oxygen
in the atmosphere, but forests store up to 100 times
more carbon than agricultural fields of the same area.
To formulate the mathematical model, the following
assumptions have been made:
● Here CðtÞ; H ðtÞ; F ðt Þ and Gðt Þ denote the concentra-
tion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, density of
human population, density of forest biomass and the
quantity of global warming at time t, respectively.
● Carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere with
a constant rate due to different natural calamities
such as respiration and volcano eruptions and dif-
ferent activities of human such as deforestation,
land use changes and burning fossil fuels.
● Carbon dioxide decreases in the atmosphere due to
the use of it during photosynthesis by plants as well
as due to several natural reasons.
● It is assumed that the human population grows
logistically. It is also assumed that the human popu-
lation will be decreased due to the death of human
for the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
● It is assumed that the human population increase
by consuming different foods or resources which
are coming directly or indirectly from forests.
● Again, it is assumed that forest’s population grows
logistically with the help of atmospheric carbon diox-
ide during photosynthesis in the presence of sunlight.
● It is also assumed that forests decrease in the earth
due to several activities by human such as rapid
growth of human population, industrialization,
modern lifestyle etc.
● It is assumed that global warming increases with
a constant rate due to several natural reasons,
increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and
increase of human population and deforestation.
Keeping the above assumptions in mind, a mathematical
model has been developed as follows:
9
dC
¼ A þ αH  βC  γCF >
dt
 >
>
dH
¼ rH 1  Hk  α1 CH þ β2 β1 HF =
dt
(1)
dF
¼ r1 F 1  kF1  β1 HF þ γ1 γCF > >
dt >
;
dG
dt ¼ B þ λC þ λ1 H  dG
with initial conditions Cð0Þ  0; H ð0Þ  0; F ð0Þ  0;
Gð0Þ  0. The biological meaning of all the parameters
have been given in Table 1.
3. Boundedness of solutions
In this section, we have studied the boundedness of
solutions of our proposed system.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODELLING AND SIMULATION 3

Table 1. Biological meaning of parameters.
Symbol Biological meaning
A Constant increase of carbon dioxide
α Rate of increase of carbon dioxide due to different human
activities
β Natural depletion rate coefficient of atmospheric carbon dioxide
γ Depletion rate coefficient of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to
forest biomass
r Intrinsic growth rate of human population
Theorem 2. The human and forest’s free equilibrium
point E0 is always unstable.
Proof. See Appendix A.
Theorem 3. The forest’s free equilibrium point E1 is locally
asymptotically stable if r1 < β1 H1  γ1 γC1 ; r < 2rH k þ
1

k Environmental carrying capacity of human population

α1 Depletion rate of human population due to carbon dioxide α1 C1 þ β.
β1 Depletion rate of forest biomass due to human
β2 Growth of human population due to forest biomass
r1 Intrinsic growth rate of forest biomass Proof. See Appendix A.
k1 Environmental carrying capacity of forest biomass
γ1 Growth rate of forest biomass due to atmospheric carbon
dioxide
Theorem 4. The human’s free equilibrium point E2 is
B Constant increase of warming due to different natural calamities locally asymptotically stable if r < α1 C2  β2 β1 F2 ; β þ
λ Increase rate of global warming due to atmospheric carbon
2r1 βF2 2r1 γF22
λ1
dioxide
Increase rate of global warming due to human activities
γF2 þ 2rk11F2  r1  γ1 γC2 > 0 and k1 þ k1 βr1 β
d Natural depletion rate of global warming γ1 γC2  γr1 F2 > 0:

Proof. See Appendix A.

Theorem 1. The solutions of system ð1Þ are all bounded.
Theorem 5. The interior equilibrium point E is locally
Proof. See Appendix A. asymptotically stable if σ 1 σ 2  σ 3 > 0 and σ 1 σ 2 σ 3 
σ 21 σ 4  σ 23 > 0:
4. Equilibrium points
Proof. See Appendix A.
The proposed system ð1Þ has four possible equilibrium
points:
6. Hopf bifurcation
● The human and forest’s free equilibrium point is
If we change the value of some specific parameters of
E0 ðC0 ; 0; 0; G0 Þ where C0 ¼ Aβ and G0 ¼ βBþλA
dβ . our model, then different dynamical behaviours may
● The forest’s free equilibrium point is E1 ðC1 ; H1 ; occur. The critical value of the parameter at which
rðαkþAÞ kðβrα1 AÞ
0; G1 Þ where, C1 ¼ βrþα1 αk ; H1 ¼ βrþα1 αk ; G1 ¼ qualitative change of dynamics occurs is called bifurca-
Bβr þ Bα1 αk þ λαrk þ λrA þ λ1 kβrλ1 α1 kA tion point [32]. The objective of this study is to deter-
dðβr þ α1 αkÞ :
● The human’s free equilibrium point is E2 ðC2 ; 0; F2 ;
mine the stability of the system with the variation of
some parameters of the system. We have considered γ
G2 Þ, where C2 ¼ βþγF A
, G2 ¼ λAþBβþBγF
dðβþγF2 Þ
2
and F2 as a bifurcation parameter.
2
 
r1 γ 2 βr1
satisfy the equation k1 F 2 þ k1  r1 γ F2  γ1 γA
Theorem 6. The interior equilibrium point
r1 β ¼ 0.
● The interior equilibrium point is E ðC ; H ; F ;
E ðC ; H  ; F  ; G Þ enters into Hopf bifurcation as γ
varies over R. Let χ ðγÞ : ð0; 1Þ ! R be the following
G Þ where C ; H ; F and G satisfy the equations

 continuously differentiable function of γ.
A þ αH  βC  γC F ¼ 0; r 1  Hk  α1 C þ χ ðγÞ ¼ σ 1 ðγÞσ 2 ðγÞσ 3 ðγÞ  σ 23 ðγÞ  σ 4 ðγÞσ 21 ðγÞ, let γ
 
β2 β1 F ¼ 0; r1 1  Fk1  β1 H þ γ1 γC ¼ 0; Bþ be a root of the equation χ ðγ Þ ¼ 0. Therefore, the Hopf
bifurcation of the interior equilibrium point E occurs at
λC þ λ1 H  dG ¼ 0: γ ¼ γ 2 ð0; 1Þ if and only if

● χ ðγ
 Þ ¼ 0: 

5. Stability analysis ● σ 21 σ 1 σ 04  σ 02 σ 3  ðσ 1 σ 2  2σ 3 Þ σ 1 σ 03  σ 01 σ 3 Þ0
In this section, the local stability of the system ð1Þ has and all other eigenvalues are of negative real parts,
been investigated in the neighbourhood of the equili- where xðγÞ is purely imaginary at γ ¼ γ .
brium points. The Jacobian matrix of the system ð1Þ is
given by Proof. See Appendix A.
4 P. PANJA

Figure 2. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to γ.

7. Numerical simulations asymptotically stable around the interior equilibrium

point E ð1210:0; 425:0; 154:0; 2852:0Þ.
To discuss the dynamical behaviour of the proposed
Next, we have considered the set of parametric
system ð1Þ, the following parametric values have
values as A ¼ 1; α ¼ 0:05; β ¼ 0:003; r ¼ 0:01; k ¼
been considered as A ¼ 1:0; α ¼ 0:05; β ¼ 0:003; γ ¼
1000; α1 ¼ 0:00001; r1 ¼ 0:2; k1 ¼ 2000; β1 ¼ 0:01; β2 ¼
0:0001; r ¼ 0:02; k ¼ 1000; α1 ¼ 0:00001; r1 ¼ 0:2; k1¼
0:0005; γ1 ¼ 0:01; λ ¼ 0:2; d ¼ 0:1; λ1 ¼ 0:1; B ¼ 0:5
1000; β2 ¼ 0:01; β1 ¼ 0:0004; γ1 ¼ 0:01; λ ¼ 0:2; d ¼ 0:1;
to draw the bifurcation diagram (Figure 2) of sys-
λ1 ¼ 0:1; B ¼ 0:6. Using this set of parameters values,
tem ð1Þ with respect to γ (depletion rate of atmo-
Figure 1 has been drawn. Also, the eigenvalues of the
spheric carbon dioxide). From this figure, it is
Jacobian matrix J at the point E ð1210:0; 425:0; 154:0;
observed that if we change γ from 0 to 0:005,
2852:0Þ of the system (1) are  0:1000; 0:0492; 
then our proposed system shows unstable beha-
0:0040  0:0299i and  0:0040 þ 0:0299i. Also from
viour in 0:00015  γ  0:0033 and stable behaviour
Figure 1, it is seen that the system ð1Þ is locally
when γ > 0:0033. So from this figure, it can be

Figure 1. Stable solutions of system (1).


Figure 4. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to k1 .
concluded that if the depletion rate coefficient of
atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, then the
solution of our proposed system becomes stable.
That is, the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere has a big role for the stability of
our proposed model.
Again, bifurcation diagram of system ð1Þ with respect
to carrying capacity ðkÞ of the human population has
been drawn in Figure 3. From this figure, it is seen that
Figure 3. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to k.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODELLING AND SIMULATION 5
if we change carrying capacity k of human population
from 1500 to 3000, then our proposed system remains
stable within 1500  k  1560 and but solution becomes
unstable when k > 1560. Hence, it can be concluded that,
if the density of human population gradually increases,
then our proposed system becomes unstable due to lim-
ited resource of food, shelter etc. Again, it can be con-
cluded that atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as global
warming gradually increases due to cut down of forests by
6 P. PANJA
Figure 6. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to β1 .
human for food, shelter etc. and our system may become
unstable.
Using the same set of parametric values used in
Figure 2, the bifurcation diagram of system ð1Þ with
respect to carrying capacity of forest biomass ðk1 Þ has
been presented in Figure 4. From this figure, it is
observed that if we change k1 from 7000 to 10,000,
then our proposed system remains stable in 7000 
Figure 5. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to r1 .
k1  7800 but becomes unstable if k1 > 7800. Hence, it
can be concluded that if the forest biomass increases,
then the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere gradually
increases due to photosynthesis which makes our sys-
tem unstable.
Again, the bifurcation diagram of system ð1Þ with
respect to growth rate of forest biomass ðr1 Þ has been
shown in Figure 5. If we change the value of r1 changes

from 0:0 to 0:2, then our proposed system shows
unstable solution in 0  r1  0:1046 but becomes stable
when r1 > 0:1046. From this figure, it can be concluded
that if the growth rate of forest biomass r1 increases,
then our proposed system tends to stability. But our
proposed system becomes unstable if the value of r1
exceeds a critical value. That is if we can increase the
plantation program, then the increase level of carbon
dioxide will be under control. It will be helpful to con-
trol global warming.
Also, the bifurcation diagram of system ð1Þ with
respect to depletion rate of forest biomass due to


human β1 has been shown in Figure 6. From this
figure, it is seen that if we change the value of β1 from
0:0005 to 0:0007, then our system shows stable solution
in 0:0005  β1  0:0006 but becomes unstable when
β1 > 0:0006. So, it can be concluded that if the rate of
cut down forest biomass increases, then the carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere as well as global warming
gradually increases which may make our ecological sys-
tem unstable.
Again, the bifurcation diagram of system ð1Þ with
respect to depletion rate of human population due to
carbon dioxide ðα1 Þ has been presented in Figure 7.
From this figure, it is observed that if we change α1
from 0:0 to 0:00001, then our proposed system shows
unstable solution in 0  α1  0:0000039 but the system
becomes stable when α1 > 0:0000039. So, it can be con-
cluded that if the density of human population decreases,
then our proposed system becomes stable. That is if we
Figure 7. Bifurcation diagram of system (1) with respect to α1 .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODELLING AND SIMULATION 7
can control the birth rate of human in under control,
then our proposed system becomes stable.
Finally, the change of global warming with the varia-
tion of α (rate of increase of increase of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere) and λ (rate of increase of global
warming due to increase of carbon dioxide in the atmo-
sphere) has been plotted in Figure 8. From this figure, it
is seen that as the value of α and λ increases, then the
global warming gradually increases. Hence, it can be
concluded that if the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
increases, then the global warming gradually increases.
8. Conclusion
In this paper, a mathematical model of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere, human population, forest biomass and
global warming has been developed. It is assumed that
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases due to different
natural resources such as earthquake, different human
activities such as rapid industrialization, environmental
pollution etc. Also, carbon dioxide decreases in the atmo-
sphere due to natural depletion rate. It is assumed that
human population grows logistically. Again, the human
population decreases due to carbon dioxide increase in
the atmosphere because it makes some death on human
population. It is also assumed that forest biomass increases
logistically. Also, it is assumed that the growth rate of forest
biomass depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide during
photosynthesis. Again, it is considered that the temperature
of the earth’s surface that is global warming increases due to
8 P. PANJA
Figure 8. Change of global warming with the variation of α and λ.
different natural resources and also carbon dioxide
increases in the atmosphere due to different human activ-
ities. Then, mathematical model is formulated and different
possible equilibrium points are evaluated. After that, the
local stability analysis of the system ð1Þ is investigated
around these equilibrium points. From the theoretical ana-
lysis of stability theory, it is seen that the stability of the
interior equilibrium point depends on the parameters
γ; k; k1 ; r1 ; β1 ; α1 etc. Also, Hopf bifurcation analysis of
our proposed system ð1Þ has been done with respect to
some important parameters.
From the numerical simulations of our proposed math-
ematical model, it is found that the interior equilibrium
point is locally asymptotically stable. Also, it is seen that if
the value of γ changes from 0 to 0.005, then system solution
becomes unstable within 0:00015  γ  0:0033 and stable
when γ > 0:0033. Again, it is observed that if the carrying
capacity ðkÞ of human population changes from 1500 to
3000, then our proposed system remains stable within
1500  k  1560 and the system becomes unstable when
k > 1560. Also, it is seen that if the value of environmental
carrying capacity of forest biomass k1 changes from 7000 to
10,000, then our system remains stable within the range
7000  k1  7800 but system becomes unstable when
k1 > 7800. If the value of r1 varies from 0.0 to 0.2, then
our proposed system remains unstable within 0  r1 
0:1046 and the system becomes stable when r1 > 0:1046.
It is observed that if we change the value of β1 from 0:0005
to 0:0007, then our proposed system becomes stable up to
the range 0:0005  β1  0:0006 but the system becomes
unstable when β1 > 0:0006. Also, it is observed that if the
value of α1 changes from 0:0 to 0:00001, then our proposed
system shows unstable solution in 0  α1  0:0000039
but the system becomes stable when α1 > 0:0000039.
From these bifurcation diagrams, it can be concluded that
if we increase forest biomass ðγÞ by plantation program or
if we implement some laws for the conservation of forest
biomass, then the increase level of environmental atmo-
spheric carbon dioxide will be under control. Also, if the
human population gradually increases, then the forest bio-
mass decreases due to food, shelter, rapid industrialization
etc. which can make our proposed model unstable. Again,
it is also found that if the forest biomass highly
increases and human population decrease, then the carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere gradually increases due to
photosynthesis of plants which may make our proposed
system unstable. Also, it can be concluded that if the rate of
cut down of forest biomass by human beings increases,
then the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as well as global
warming gradually will be increased that can make our
proposed ecological system unstable. It is also concluded
that if we can increase the growth rate of forest biomass ðr1 Þ
by taking different strategies, then we can able to make our
proposed system stable. So from our theoretical and
numerical study, it can be concluded that we can restrict
the rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by
taking plantation program.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes on contributor
Prabir Panja is working as an Assistant Professor at the
Department of Applied Science, Haldia Institute of
Technology, Haldia, West Bengal, India. He teaches mathe-
matics at the undergraduate level. He has completed his Ph.D
degree in Mathematical Biology from Vidyasgar University,
West Bengal, India in 2017. Dr. Panja has published more
than 17 papers in different reputed international journals,
such as Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos Solitons & Fractals,
Computational and Applied Mathematics, International
Journal of Biomathematics, Theory in Biosciences,

International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical
Simulation etc. Dr. Panja’s research areas are Mathematical
Ecology and Epidemiology.
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10 P. PANJA

Appendix A always positive. So according to the stability theory, we

can say that the equilibrium point E0 is always unstable.

Proof of Theorem 1 Proof of Theorem 3

All solutions of the system (1) are bounded within the The characteristic equation of the Jacobian matrix J ðE1 Þ
region is given by
X

¼ fðC; H; F; GÞ : 0nltC  Cn ; 0  H  Hn ; ðd þ xÞ r1  β1 H1 þ γ1 γC1  x
  
0  F  Fn ; 0nltG  Gn g 2rH1
x þ
2
þ α1 C1 þ β  r x
kβ2 β1 k
where Cn ¼ AþαH
β
n
; Hn ¼ k þ r Fn ; Fn ¼  
rk1 ðβr1 þγ1 γðAþk1 αÞÞ
2rH1
and Gn ¼ BþλCndþλ1 Hn can be calculated þβ þ α1 C1 þ β  r þ α1 αH1 ¼ 0
βrr1 kk1 γ1 γβ2 β1 α k
in the following way.
The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix J ðE1 Þ are  d; r1 
From the first equation of system ð1Þ, we have
β1 H1 þ γ1 γC1 and other can be found from the equation


2rH 
dC x2 þ 2rH k þ α1 C1 þ β  r x þ β k þ α1 C1 þ β  r þ
1 1
þ βC  A þ αHn
dt α1 αH1 ¼ 0. The equilibrium point E1 is locally asymptoti-
Now applying differential inequality [33], it is obtained cally stable if r1 < β1 H1  γ1 γC1 ; r < 2rH
k þ α1 C1 þ β.
1

that 0 < C  AþαH

β
n
:
Proof of Theorem 4
Again, from the second equation of system ð1Þ, we have
The characteristic equation of the J ðE2 Þ is given by
dH rH 2

 rH  Þ þ β2 β1 HFn ðd þ xÞ r  αC2 þ β2 β1 F2  x
dt k   
  2r1 F2
dH rH x þ x β þ γF2 þ
2
 r1  γ1 γC2
 r þ β2 β1 Fn H k1
dt k  
2r1 βF2 2r1 γF22
þ þ  βr1  βγ1 γC2  γr1 f2 ¼0
Then, applying differential inequality [33], we have k1 k1
kβ2 β1
0H kþ Fn :
r The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix J ðE2 Þ are  d;
From the third equation of system ð1Þ, we have r  αC2 þ β2 β1 F2 and other two eigenvalues can be

dF r1 F 2 found from the equation x2 þ x β þ γF2 þ 2rk11F2  r1 
 r1 F  Þ þ γ1 γCn F  
2r1 γF22
dt k1 γ1 γC2 Þ þ 2r1kβF
1
2
þ k1  βr 1  βγ1 γC 2  γr 1 2 ¼ 0.
F
 
dF r1 F Then the equilibrium point E2 is locally asymptoti-
 r1  þ γ1 γCn F
dt k1 cally stable if r < α1 C2  β2 β1 F2 ; β þ γF2 þ 2rk11F2  r1 
2r1 βF2 2r1 γF22
Now, applying differential inequality [33], we have γ1 γC2 > 0 and k1 þ k1  βr1  βγ1 γC2  γr1
rk1 ðβr1 þ γ γðA þ k1 αÞÞ F2 > 0.
0  F  βrr1  kk11 γ γβ β α :
1 2 1

Also, from the fourth equation of system ð1Þ, we have
dG
þ dG  B þ λCn þ λ1 Hn
dt
Again, applying differential inequality [33], we have
0 < G  BþλCndþλ1 Hn :
Proof of Theorem 2
The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix J ðE0 Þ are 
β; d; r  α1 C0 and r1 þ γγ1 C0 . Since all the biologically
feasible parameters associated in this proposed model
are positive, so one of the eigenvalue r1 þ γγ1 C0 > 0 is
Proof of Theorem 5
The characteristic equation of the Jacobian matrix J ðE Þ
is given by
x4 þ σ 1 x3 þ σ 2 x 2 þ σ 3 x þ σ 4 ¼ 0 (2)
where σ 1 ¼ a11 þ a44  a22  a33 ; σ 2 ¼ a11 a22 
a12 a21  a22 a33 þ a22 a44 þa11 a33  a11 a44 þ a33 a44 
a23 a32  a13 a31 ; σ 3 ¼ a11 a22 a33  a11 a22 a44  a12 a21 a33 þ
a12 a21 a44 þ a22 a33 a44  a11 a33 a44 þa23 a32 a44 þ a11 a23 a32
þa13 a21 a32 þ a13 a31 a44 þ a31 a12 a23 þ a13 a31 a22 ; σ 4 ¼
a11 a22 a33 a44  a12 a21 a33 a44 þ a11 a23 a32 a44 þ a13 a21
a32 a44  a31 a12 a23 a44  a13 a31 a22 a44 ; a ¼ β þ γF ; a12 ¼
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODELLING AND SIMULATION 11

α; a13 ¼ γC ; a21 ¼ α1 H ; a22 ¼ r  2rH x1 ðγÞ ¼ ζ ðγÞ þ iηðγÞ

k  α1 C þ β2 β1


F ; a23 ¼ β2 β1 H ; a31 ¼ γ1 γF ; a32 ¼ β1 F ; a33 ¼ r1  2rk11F x2 ðγÞ ¼ ζ ðγÞ  iηðγÞ

β1 H þ γ1 γC ; a41 ¼ λ; a42 ¼ λ1 ; a44 ¼ d: From the
stability theory, we know that the proposed system ð1Þ Now, we shall verify the transversality condition


dγ Rexj ðγÞ γ¼γ Þ0; j ¼ 1; 2.
d
will be locally asymptotically stable around the interior
equilibrium point if all the roots of Equation (2) are Substituting xi ðγÞ ¼ ζ ðγÞ  iηðγÞ into the character-
negative or have negative real parts. Now, according to istic equation stated in Theorem 5 and calculating the
Routh–Hurwitch criteria, Equation (2) has negative derivatives, we have
roots if σ 1 σ 2  σ 3 > 0 and σ 1 σ 2 σ 3  σ 21 σ 4  σ 23 > 0 hold. M1 ðγÞζ 0 ðγÞ  M2 ðγÞη0 ðγÞ þ M3 ¼ 0

Proof of Theorem 6 M2 ðγÞζ 0 ðγÞ þ M1 ðγÞη0 ðγÞ þ M4 ¼ 0

Now, using the condition χ ðγ Þ ¼ 0, the characteristic where

equation can be written as

   M1 ðγÞ ¼ 4ζ 3  12ζη2 þ 3σ 1 ζ 2  η2 þ 2σ 2 ζ þ σ 3
σ3 σ4σ1
x2 þ x2 þ xσ 1 þ ¼0 M2 ðγÞ ¼ 12ζ 2 η  4ζ 3 þ 6σ 1 ζη þ 2σ 2 η
σ1 σ3


Let the roots of the above equation are x1 ; x2 ; x3 and x4 . M3 ðγÞ ¼ σ 01 ζ 3  3σ 01 ζη2 þ σ 02 ζ 2  η2 þ σ 03 ζ þ σ 04
Let the pair of purely imaginary roots at γ ¼ γ are x1
and x2 , then we have M4 ðγÞ ¼ 3σ 01 ζ 2 η  σ 01 η3 þ 2σ 02 ζη þ σ 03 η

x3 þ x4 ¼ σ 1 Again, for γ ¼ γ , it is obtained that M1 ðγ Þ ¼ 2σ 3 ,

(3) qffiffiffiffi 
σ0 σ
M2 ðγ Þ ¼ 2 σσ 21 σ 2  2σσ1 ,
3
M3 ðγ Þ ¼ σ 04  σ2 1 3 and
ω20 þ x3 x4 ¼ σ 2 (4) qffiffiffiffi 
σ0 σ
M4 ðγ Þ ¼ σσ 31 σ 03  σ1 1 3 .
ω20 ðx3 þ x4 Þ ¼ σ 3 (5)

ω20 x3 x4 ¼ σ 4 (6)
Solving for ζ 0 ðγÞ at γ ¼ γ , we have
qffiffiffiffi d

where ω0 ¼ Imx1 ðγ Þ. By the above relations, ω0 ¼ σσ 31 . Rexj ðγÞ γ¼γ ¼ ζ 0 ðγ Þ
Now, if x3 ; x4 are complex conjugate, then from equa- dγ
M2 ðγ ÞM4 ðγ Þ þ M1 ðγ ÞM3 ðγ Þ
tion ð4Þ, it follows that 2Rex3 ¼ σ 1 ; if they are real ¼
roots, then by ð4Þ and ð5Þ, x3 < 0 and x4 < 0. M12 ðγ Þ þ M22 ðγ Þ
To complete the proof, now we verify the transvers-


σ 21 σ 1 σ 04  σ 02 σ 3  ðσ 1 σ 2  2σ 3 Þ σ 1 σ 03  σ 01 σ 3
ality condition. As χ ðγ Þ is a continuous function of all its ¼ Þ0
2σ 31 σ 3 þ 2ðσ 1 σ 2  2σ 3 Þ2
roots, so there exists an open interval γðγ  ; γ þ Þ,
where x1 and x2 are complex conjugate for γ. Suppose Thus, the transversality conditions hold and hence Hopf
there general forms in this neighbourhood are bifurcation occurs at γ ¼ γ .

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