5/16/23, 6:25 AM Sea level rise, facts and information

Climate change is accelerating the rise in sea levels around the world—leaving some of the
most vulnerable populations at risk as they are forced to live in marginal areas where
flooding from high tides is increasing as seen here in Kiribati.
P H OTO G R A P H BY K E N N E DY WA R N E

ENVIRONMENT EXPLAINER

Sea levels are rising at an

extraordinary pace. Here's what to
know.
Seas are predicted to rise a foot by 2050, regardless of how much global
carbon emissions can be reduced. Why is this happening, and what can we
do to adapt?

B Y C H R I S T I N A N U N E Z   A N D N AT I O N A L G E O G R A P H I C S TA F F

PUBLISHED APRIL 10, 2023 • 7 MIN READ

As humans continue to pour greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, oceans

have tempered the effect. The world's seas have absorbed more than 90
percent of the heat from these gases, but it’s taking a toll on our oceans:
2021 set a new record for ocean heating.

Rising seas is one of those climate change effects. Average sea levels have
swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those
inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another .13
inches (3.2 mm.) Research published in February 2022 shows that sea
level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.

That translates into as much sea level rise in the next 30 years as occurred
over the last century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, called the findings
“historic,” and warned that the projected rise will occur even if carbon
emissions are drastically cut.  Newsletters SUBSCRIBE

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(How carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contribute to climate

change.)

In the United States, the most vulnerable populations live on the East and
Gulf Coasts, where damaging flooding is predicted to occur 10 times more
often in 2050 than it does today. The acceleration of sea level rise along
these coasts is "unprecedented in at least 120 years," according to a study
published in April 2023. 

Here's what you need to know about the causes—and consequences—of sea
level rise.

3:29

FLOODS 101
No other kind of natural disaster in America has caused more death and destruction than
floods.

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Causes of sea level rise

The change in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by
ongoing global climate change:

Thermal expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half

of the sea-level rise over the past 25 years is attributable to warmer
oceans simply occupying more space. 
Melting glaciers: Large ice formations such as mountain glaciers
naturally melt a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily
from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the
melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by
global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as
well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs.
That creates an imbalance between runoff and ocean evaporation,
causing sea levels to rise.
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Loss of Greenland and Antarctica’s ice sheets: As with

mountain glaciers, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets
that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt more quickly. Scientists
also believe that meltwater from above and seawater from below is
seeping beneath Greenland's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice
streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. While
melting in West Antarctica has drawn considerable focus from
scientists, especially with the 2017 break in the Larsen C ice shelf,
glaciers in East Antarctica are also showing signs of destabilizing.

Consequences
When sea levels rise as rapidly as they have been, even a small increase can
have devastating effects on coastal habitats farther inland, it can cause
destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil
contamination with salt, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

(Here's how warming oceans affects wildlife and storm systems.)

Higher sea levels are coinciding with more dangerous hurricanes and
typhoons that move more slowly and drop more rain, contributing to more
powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path. One
study found that between 1963 and 2012, almost half of all deaths from
Atlantic hurricanes were caused by storm surges.

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Already, flooding in low-lying coastal areas is forcing people to migrate to

higher ground, and millions more are vulnerable from flood risk and other
climate change effects. The prospect of higher coastal water levels
threatens basic services such as Internet access, since much of the
underlying communications infrastructure lies in the path of rising seas.

Adapting to the threat

As a result of these risks, many coastal cities are already planning
adaptation measures to cope with the long-term prospects of higher sea
levels, often at considerable cost. Building seawalls, rethinking roads, and
planting mangroves or other vegetation to absorb water are all being
undertaken.

In Jakarta, a $40 billion project will aim to protect the city with an 80-
foot-high seawall. Rotterdam, home to the Global Center on Adaptation,
has offered a model to other cities seeking to combat flooding and land
loss. The Dutch city has built barriers, drainage, and innovative
architectural features such as a “water square” with temporary ponds.

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Of course, communities vulnerable to rising seas can only go so far in

holding back the tide. In the Marshall Islands, where rising sea levels are
forcing a choice between relocating or building up the land, residents will
need help from other nations if they decide to undertake the expensive
latter option.

2:49

C L I M AT E 1 0 1 : C A U S E S A N D E F F E C T S
The climate is certainly changing. But what is causing this change? And how does the rising
temperature affect the environment, and our lives?

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How high will it go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely
to accelerate, causing the oceans to keep rising. This means hundreds of
coastal cities face flooding. But forecasting how much and how soon seas
will rise remains an area of ongoing research.

A special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

says we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to 77
centimeters) by 2100 with temperatures warming 1.5 °C. That’s enough to
seriously affect many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. Another
analysis based on NASA and European data skewed toward the higher end
of that range, predicting a rise of 26 inches (65 centimeters) by the end of
this century if the current trajectory continues.

If all the ice that currently exists on Earth in glaciers and sheets melted it
would raise sea level by 216 feet. That could cause entire states and even
some countries to disappear under the waves, from Florida to Bangladesh.
That’s not a scenario scientists think is likely, and it would probably take
many centuries, but it could eventually happen if the world keeps burning
fossil fuels indiscriminately.

In the meantime, scientists keep refining their models of sea-level changes.

They also point out that the extent to which countries work together to
limit release of more greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on
how quickly seas rise, and how much.

Editor's Note: This story was originally published on February 19, 2019. It has
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been updated with new data.

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