Central European Management Journal ISSN:2336-2693 | E-ISSN:2336-4890

Vol. 31 Iss. 2 (2023)

Effects of Industrialization on Indo-Pak Water Politics: A

Comparative Study of Egypt in Hindsight – A Pakistan
Perspective
Asmat Ullah Durrani, Muhammad Ali, Nisar Ahmed
BS International Relations BUITEMS, Quetta Pakistan
BS International Relations BUITEMS Quetta–Pakistan
BS International Relations BUITEMS, Quetta, Pakistan

ABSTRACT
We are witnessing recently a surge and commitment to utilize the full potential of the industrial base
in both India and Pakistan. Pakistan, particularly, is trying to take the economy out from an unpredictably
performing agrarian to a mixed or industrialized one. Being riparian states with massive population
growth coupled with increasing domestic demand for water and food Pakistan and India very much rely
on their agriculture sector amid loud cries for more industrialization. This study intends to find the role
and effect that industrialization may usher in Indo-Pak relations in the retrospect of water politics,
keeping in hindsight the comparative study of Egypt, which resembles Pakistan in the matter at hand. The
research was carried out following the qualitative research methods. The secondary data was collected by
searching keywords and reviewing the recent literature and analyzing through meta-analysis. The study
concludes that an increase in Industrialization will intensify water politics in particular and worsen the
already deteriorating relations in general between India and Pakistan.

Keywords: Industrialization, Indo-Pak relation, Water Politics.

1 Introduction
Water politics for the first time was used by Elhance (1997). Water politics/hydro politics has the capacity to
lead to violence between states or even within states for limited water supplies. If we look at this matter at hand
from a realist perspective, we find that water has been used historically for the ulterior motives of the rulers of states
and countries to gain upper hand in bargaining or for mightier reasons. Water politics, thus, is not a new
phenomenon. If the number of resources available does not match the needs of both the countries located at upper
and lower streams, there is an evident possibility that they might compete to acquire more water resources, in the
process increasing the hostility that can lead countries to a water war. (Gleick, 1993)

The literature studied gave a clear and vivid picture of the status of Indo-Pak relations and the role that water
politics has played in retrospect of it. Recent studies show that two factors contribute to the introduction of water
politics in the relations of both countries. First, Both India and Pakistan, as per the World Bank report, due to their
high population and population growth are on their way to becoming water-deficient countries. (Kishwar Munir,
2021) The present water availability cannot cater to the needs of India and Pakistan (Kishwar Munir, 2021).
Secondly, the use of water as a tool to push the lower riparian state on the back foot for security reasons and use it
as a diplomatic tool, historically, has its benefits for the upper riparian states. For instance, Haile Selassie of Utopia
exploited its upper riparian states' status in the Nile River Basin for the country’s territorial interests in Eritrea on
which Egypt had put up the claim. The moment Haile declared its interest in the Blue Nile project, Egypt revoked
its claim (Erlich, 2002). In quite the same fashion India blocked the water soon after independence and demanded
that Pakistan pay for the water as they hold property rights to the water. The tussle would give way to the Indus
Water Treaty later in 1960. Similarly, the studied literature gave a detailed historical account of the status of
industrialization in Pakistan, the times and factors leading to higher industrialization and those of stagnant
industrialization period. There is however a clear and vivid literature gap in linking the trends of Industrialization
with that of water politics and, hence, Indo-Pak relations. This study intends to fill that gap by linking
industrialization in Pakistan and assessing its effects on Indo-Pak relations in general and water politics in particular.
Due to the unavailability of relevant data in Pakistan concerning sector-wise water consumption a comparative study
of Egypt is undertaken as a guide and a window to sneak into the future of Indo-Pak relations. Egypt shares

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similarities with Pakistan in both being agriculture-driven economies of upper riparian states facing water scarcity
and having uptight, cutthroat relations with its neighbors.

The study provides a window into the future relations between Pakistan and India with growing
industrialization in Pakistan. It is important to note that the study covers Pakistan's perspective mostly and does not
hold into account the Indian perspective on industrialization in India and its likely effects on Indo-Pak relations.
The study also is limited in its scope of confining the water politics in the Indus River Basin (IRB) to Pak-India
Relations only and does not include other regional players and varying parties.

2 Literature Review
Water is an essential resource for human existence, economic growth, and ecological equilibrium in the natural
world. The scarcity of water, in particular, influences a huge spectrum of realms, from health to human rights,
environment, economy, culture, and politics, as well as many more aspects of human existence that are rarely
affected by other natural resources. (Sarfraz Ahmed, Dr. Siraj Bashir & Mumtaz Ali (2019). Every living thing is
composed of water and has the power to determine life and death. Pakistan, a country that is mainly reliant on
agriculture for its economy, is gradually moving towards industrialization. About 60% of its population resides in
rural areas where agriculture is the primary source of income. With a total geographical area of 79.61 million
hectares, Pakistan has around 22.08 million hectares of cultivated and about 23.01 million hectares of uncultivated
land. The agricultural sector contributes over 20% to the country's GDP and employs 43.5% of the labor force,
making it a crucial component of the economy. (Pakistan, 2014-15)

Despite being one of the aridest countries globally, Pakistan has the fourth-highest rate of water usage. The
majority of the country's water supply comes from the Indus River system (Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq,
2012), which comprises six significant tributaries: The Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, and is primarily
fed by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall. The primary source of rainfall is the summer monsoons. Approximately
300 million individuals depend on the Indus Basin for their water supply. (Frenken K. , 2011) The Indus River
Basin, situated in this region that faces water scarcity has become a site of intense competition and hostility over
water resources amongst Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. (J.J. Wescoat, 2000)
Pakistan and India share most of their water resources. Tragically, seven months following Pakistan's
establishment, India obstructed the flow of water in the Sutlej River, which could have adversely impacted Pakistan's
agriculture (Frenken K. , 2011). In 1960, India and Pakistan negotiated a treaty called the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)
to address their water issues (Chaturvedi, 2018). Under the treaty, India was granted exclusive rights to three Eastern
Rivers (the Ravi, the Beas, and the Sutlej), while Pakistan received the other three Western Rivers (the Chenab, the
Jhelum, and the Indus). Furthermore, India was granted some non-consumptive use rights over the Western Rivers,
as specified in the treaty. Despite three wars being fought between India and Pakistan, the Indus Water Treaty has
remained intact to this day. Despite three wars being fought between India and Pakistan, the Indus Water Treaty has
remained intact to this day.
Despite Pakistan pursuing its objections and differences on the Kishanganga and Ratle dams on a legal basis
according to the rules of the Treaty, India's leadership has taken an aggressive stance by threatening to use its upper
riparian status. Following a terrorist attack in 2016, Prime Minister Modi threatened to revoke the Indus Water
Treaty and held a meeting to discuss retaliatory actions through water control. In the meeting, there were
discussions regarding fully utilizing the potential of Western rivers (Kishwar Munir, 2021) Since then, India has been
issuing statements at the highest levels, threatening to halt the water supply to Pakistan. Although such statements
appear to be politically motivated, they undoubtedly affect the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Prior to the most recent general elections in India, Indian leaders at all levels made statements threatening to
halt the flow of residual waters into the eastern rivers. They specifically stated that Pakistan would face
consequences for the terrorist attack in Pulwama, although it was still unclear whether Pakistan had any
involvement. During this time, Indian Transport and Water Resources Minister Nitin Gandkari announced that
India had chosen to discontinue all residual flow of water from eastern rivers amidst heightened tensions following
the Pulwama incident. (Kishwar Munir, 2021) Pakistan currently supplies water to the eastern rivers through link
canals that are connected to the western rivers. The threat of halting this water supply during a time of high military
tensions and potential war insinuates a possible scenario of water wars. (Jeffrey Gettleman, 2019)

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Several months later, India responded with hostility by releasing water in Rai and Sutlej without prior information
sharing. Pakistan referred to this act as "Fifth Generation Warfare". This incident occurred after India revoked the
special status of Kashmir under Article 370 of its constitution, which resulted in a high level of tension between the
two countries. As a result of India's actions, water from a dam was released and caused flooding across the border in
Pakistan. When questioned as to why India released the water without prior information sharing, they responded by
stating that it was a goodwill gesture. India further explained that such releases after the monsoon season are
routine, and they did not have any plans to continue this gesture. (Kishwar Munir, 2021)
Experts agree that Pakistan, like the rest of the globe, has entered the fifth industrial revolution as a result
of technological advancements. The best evidence of Pakistan's fifth revolution is that It now has about 80 million
mobile broadband customers, and the e-commerce industry is preparing for a strong future. Experts see technology-
enabled rapid progress as a driver for change. The fourth industrial revolution known as Productivity enhancement
is the cornerstone of every industrial revolution (Lesnikova, 2016) These cutting-edge approaches make use of
extremely complex knowledge derived from current enterprise information technology, such as business intelligence
or the most recent big data analytics( (Lesnikova, 2016) It is extremely desired in the countries intelligentsia to take
steps to expand the cement, lime, and calcium chemical businesses so that the country may become self-sufficient
and export these resources for exchange. Pakistan has a large supply of raw materials for the cement industry, and
the country may earn enough foreign cash by exporting cement through the installation of dozens of cement
industries in the province of Balochistan and KPK (Malkani, 2018)
According to Hooman Peimani, one of Pakistan's objectives in becoming a nuclear power was to address
the Kashmir conflict. As the defeated side in two wars, Pakistan has had every reason to view India as a significant
threat to its national security, with the Kashmir dispute being the primary cause of the first two wars between the
two nations. The current divided status of Kashmir, with India controlling the larger part, has created an unstable
situation that could potentially lead to a military confrontation between the two sides. However, Hooman Peimani
also suggests that Pakistan's objective in becoming a nuclear power was an attempt to avoid such a major
confrontation with India. (Peimani, 2000)
While going through the literature we get to see and hear loads of recommendations and calls in favor of
an industrialized Pakistan from many scholars. These scholars have endeavored & put forward prospects and
consequences of industrialization on Pakistan’s economy but there is no evidence or presence of study by the
academia and the scholarships linking an industrialized Pakistan with that of water politics and Indo-Pak relations
This paper, thus, endeavors to fill the above gap and loopholes not yet filled and touch the areas mentioned earlier.

3 Methodology
The study is carried out following qualitative research methods as it aims to answer abstract claims for which
empirical data is already present somehow. The data was collected by searching online through keywords and
through the snowball effect. A descriptive approach was employed during the course of the study. The study does a
meta-analysis of the already existing analysis present in the literature by linking, first, the analysis of industrialization
with that of water politics and Indo-Pak relations and secondly making a separate analysis on top of it.

Discussion and analysis

Before we embark on our journey of the process of industrialization, it is very important to first
understand and define what an industrialized economy or industrialization means. Transition to an Industrial
economy is completed, or a country is said to have industrialized when the industrial labor force (in mining,
construction, manufacturing, public utilities, transport, communication, and storage) rises to exceed the declining
agricultural force. (Oshima, 1986)
On the economic front, Pakistan was considered an economic monstrosity with no industrial base.
(Papanek, 1967) A country producing ¾ of the world's jute had not a single mill to process it through to production.
Some good luck factors such as the Korean War came in handy in taking the country out of an almost complete
collapse of the economy thanks to the blackmailing of India. This push helped Pakistan immensely in embarking on
its first trade policy. The change in the government in 1958 brought high liberalization in the economy and the trade
policy was amended to a more indirect and pragmatic one such as the Export Bonus scheme (EBS) and import
licensing was substituted with OGL, Open General License (Zaidi, 2015)

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The decade of development, 1958-1968, saw the manufacturing sector growing with an average of 13.5%
per annum with Pakistan scoring higher in exports than the combined manufactured exports of South Korea,
Indonesia, Turkey, and Thailand (Asian Development Bank, 1985)

The disintegration of Pakistan along with the new Islamic socialism concept of Bhutto broke the link that
existed between the prior two decades and Pakistan plunged into an economic breakdown. The nationalization of all
the major enterprises gave way to more public investment in the industrial sector but at the same time private sector
took a nosedive (Naqvi, 1993)
The Bhutto government was seen to be going away from the industrial policy of the previous regimes
marked with anti-agriculture and pro-industry bias. The measures include but are not limited to the devaluation of
the rupee by 131%, the nationalization of banks hence breaking the all-important and closed industrial and financial
capital link, the abolition of all the subsidy programs to the export sector such as the Export Bonus Scheme (EBS)
(Amjad, 1984)
Exports increased by a shocking 153% in 1972/73 by the previous year but soon the bar took a nosedive.
The biggest factors were the world recession in 1974 which slowed the demand for Pakistani export and the “big
push” towards public sector investment for long projects. Some bad luck factors such as the increase in the prices of
imports in the aftermath of the 1973 oil price crisis, the floods in 1973 and 1976 which were the worst in the
country’s history, and the pest attacks on crops all contributed significantly to slowing the pace of industrialization
in the country during Bhutto’s reign (Amjad, 1984)

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The Zia years from 1977 to 1988 are considered the golden time in history concerning the economy,
specifically industry. Political stability and continuity along with moving towards the higher stages of import
substitution, export enhancement, export-led industrialization, and enhancement in the export sector efficiency led
Pakistan into growing by 6.5% per annum from 1980-88 falling behind only the economic giants the likes of Korea,
China and Hong Kong (Noman, 1991)The long anticipated denationalization, the reentry of the private sector into
the realm, the all-time high remittances and the introduction of float economic currency played an instrumental part
in the process of industrialization. (Laporte, 1989)

IMF and world bank started playing an important role in Pakistan’s economy post-1980 through its
Structural Adjustment Plans (SAPs) These SAPs, at times, proved fruitful during the political upheaval and mess
during the start of the 1990s and worst at the later part of minus 0.1% in 1996/7 and 1.95% in 1999/2000. The
stability in the form of military rule brought the industrial sector again on its footing with a 7 % decade average but
in The last years of Musharraf’s regime and the convening years of the Peoples’ Party government, the industrial
sector took a sharp nosedive with manufacturing sector going at minus 3.6% in 2008/ (Government of Pakistan,
2022). Pakistan has been in this situation since then and the industrial sector is still trying to find the ground under
its feet. The very recent government of PTI, however, did take some steps towards improving the state of affairs of
the country’s industrial sector by introducing an export diversification program and devaluing the currency. The
country’s exports in response have reached $33 Billion from its stagnant position of $25 Billion from 2013-2018.
There are many reasons for the nascent economic position in general and the industrial sector of the country in
particular. The first and foremost important factor of 9/11 and the war on terror cannot be shunned which brought
many political and social problems to the country with the army still fighting against its people in the country. The
global recession in 2008, the incessant increase and destabilized nature of the oil prices in the world happening due
to the oil politics of the OPEC, Covid-19, recent flooding, failure in meeting the growing energy demands, pest
attacks, insurgency, and many more.

Industrial Sector of Pakistan

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The contribution of the industrialization sector to Pakistan’s GDP was 28.11% in FY2021 (Pakistan
Economic Survey, 2021-22). The sector is mainly composed of manufacturing, electricity and gas, mining, and
construction. The manufacturing sector is further composed of three sub-sectors i.e. Large Scale Manufacturing,
LSM, Small Scale Manufacturing, SSM, and Slaughtering. The textile units make up the biggest part of the
manufacturing sector.

Industrialization & Water Consumption

The biggest factor contributing to the fact of textile units making up the biggest part of the manufacturing
sector is that most of Pakistan’s industrialization is agro-based which means that a prominent part of the
manufacturing sector of Pakistan uses agricultural inputs as raw materials and they process it out to industries to
come up with a finished product. Textile, considered the backbone of Pakistan’s export sector, uses cotton as a raw
material in industries. Last year almost $15.4B out of the $27B Pakistan’s exports were textile products making up
almost 56% of Pakistan’s total exports (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2021) In the fiscal year 2021, the target of
textile export was set up by the Imran khan’s government at $20B+. In situations such as this, one can infer that
more industrialization requires more agricultural inputs, more agricultural inputs means cultivating more lands and
setting up waterways and canals for those lands to fulfill the water demand. The industrial sector is utilizing and
consuming almost one-quarter of Pakistan’s water already at this moment.

Figure: Water consumption per sector

Apart from this, the Non-Agro based industrial sector also requires water for its production and
functioning, however, it is comparatively very less than those used for irrigation purposes and agro-based
industrialization. The following table shows the in-details outlook of the sector-wise distribution of water and the
quantity consumed for respective purposes:

Table: Distribution of water, its purpose, and the quantity consumed

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Water Politics
During partition, in a clear violation of the mandate to demarcate the boundaries of the newborn
independent state, despite being the Muslim majority areas and to be allocated to Pakistan, in an ironical move the
Madhopur and Ferozpur were allotted to India. Madhopur and Ferozpur were in the higher stream position and had
water headworks installed there, the flow of water through the Indus River basin, IRB, could be very easily tempered
from there. As a result, Pakistan, being in a downstream position, became the lower riparian state and India the
upper.
Studies show that two factors contribute to the introduction of water politics in the relations of both
countries. First, Both India and Pakistan, as per the World Bank report, due to their high population and population
growth are on their way to becoming water-deficient countries. (Kishwar Munir, 2021) The present water availability
cannot cater to the needs of India and Pakistan (Kishwar Munir, 2021). Secondly, the use of water as a tool to push
the lower riparian state on the back foot for security reasons and use it as a diplomatic tool, historically, has its
benefits for the upper riparian states. For instance, Haile Selassie of Utopia exploited its upper riparian states' status
in the Nile River Basin for the country’s territorial interests in Eritrea on which Egypt had put up the claim. The
moment Haile declared its interest in the Blue Nile project, Egypt revoked its claim (Erlich, 2002).
In quite the same fashion India blocked the water soon after independence and demanded that Pakistan
pay for the water as they hold property rights to the water but Pakistan straightforwardly rejected it and said they
won’t pay for anything other than the maintenance and operation.
A series of negotiation and conflict management tactics were employed including a standstill agreement to
resolve the issue but all in vain. (M. Hussain, 2021) But it was only after the involvement of the World Bank in 1952
that both states agreed to sign an agreement of Indus Water Treaty, IWT, in September 1960 (Bhatti, 2020)
By the treaty, three eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej, and Bias, were given to India and banned Pakistan from
modeling in the flow of these rivers when they are flowing through Pakistan’s territory. In a quiet parallel way, the
western rivers, Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus, were given to Pakistan and obliged India to not interfere in the flow of
water. (Kishwar Munir, 2021)
In case of a dispute, as per Article IX of the treaty, a commission constituting an expert from both
Pakistan and India would be established. The commission will resolve the issue. If it can’t then the question raised
would be called a difference and a neutral expert on the matter at hand would be appointed who if can’t solve the
difference would give way to a dispute and it would be resolved by a seven-member court of arbitration (world
bank, 1952)

Table: Procedure to handle the issues detailed in the treaty and the cases for those these methods have
been used:
Categories Methods Composition Cases

Questions Commission Two members constitute IC. Salal Dam case

Differences Neutral Both Parties appoint with the agreement and if fail Baglihar case
Expert to do so, the Bank is then entrusted to do so.

Disputes Court of Arbitration Article IX (5) of the treaty deals with the role of Kishanganga case
the Court of Arbitration

Source: Water conflict between Pakistan and India: implications to regional peace & security
The first 10 years, post-agreement, from 1960 to 1970 saw a peaceful environment on both sides. Even though
Pakistan constructed dams, Tarbela and Mangla, barrages, and tributaries still there weren’t any issues whatsoever on
the front. It was the moment India started constructing hydropower plants at the western rivers in Kashmir that
things started to go the wrong way and to add cherry topping is expected to increase in the future (Hussain,
2017)The following are the disputes which have seen the light of the day so far and their status now.

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Projects Dams & Spillways Location of the Status of the dispute

project

Salal Dam (1970) 690 MW hydroelectricity Chenab River Settled

Udhampur Jammu

Wullar Barrage/Tulbul 439 feet long barrage Jhelum River Bandipore Unresolved
navigational project district north of Srinagar
(1980)

Baglihar Dam (1992) 450 MW power plant Chenab River Doda Operational (though
district Jammu & Pakistan has serious
Kashmir reservations)

Kishanganga Dam Kishanganga Hydroelectric Jhelum River in parts of Operational (court decided
Project (KHEP) Jammu & Kashmir in favor of India)

Nimoo Bazgo and 45 MW power plant Indus River - 70 Km

Chutak Dams (2005) from Leh

Source: (Hussain, 2017)

Water Security/ Scarcity
From the above table it can be inferred that the intensity of conflict over water is increasing with time. The
progress from questions to differences and then to shows that the conflict on the water is getting worse with time.
One of the main reasons behind this is the alarming increase in water scarcity coupled with the population increase.
Climate change, the melting of glaciers which brings with it a great amount of mud with them, is continuously
decreasing the water capacity of the IRB on both sides. (Chaturvedi, 2018)

Table: Water availability in India and Pakistan

Water availability Pakistan (cubic feet) Population India (cubic feet) Population

1960 5000 cubic feet 50 million 6000 165 million

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2016 1500 cubic feet 200 million 1600 1268 million

Source: (Kishwar Munir, 2021)
As per the definition set by the United Nations, a country is declared and considered water scarce if the per
capita water availability goes below 850 cubic meters. At present Pakistan is scoring at 1000 cubic meters per capita
and as per the reports of the Water and power development authority Pakistan, WAPDA, Pakistan will become a
water-scarce country if the conditions and variables stayed the same.

Comparative Study of Egypt:

Egypt in many ways resembles Pakistan. Egypt is an agrarian country and relies heavily on the Nile River
i.e. 86% on the water comes from the Nile River. It is a lower riparian state just like Pakistan and its industrialization
sector is mostly agro based just also as Pakistan’s. It is also facing growing threats from the upper riparian state
Ethiopia from where almost 85% of the Nile river flows just like Pakistan which is facing growing tensions from the
upper riparian state, India. Ethiopia has embarked on the construction of its Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam on
its own which can alter the flow of water to the downstream countries. Egypt too is facing Water scarcity at this
moment and is importing water as virtual water also known as a food entity annually to meet its growing water
demand. As per the treaty signed with Sudan in 1959, Egypt will receive an annual 55.4 MAF annually whereas on
the contrary at the moment its water demand is around 87.5 MAF. The importance of the Nile River and its water is
evident from the statement of the president of Egypt, way back even in 1979 where he said “The only matter that
would take Egypt to a war again is water” (Maekele, 2013)
Another reason behind taking Egypt as a comparative study is the fact that there is no data available
currently of Pakistan related to water consumption by the industrial sector. Since the condition of Egypt resembles
Pakistan in many ways the example might suffice in understanding and evaluating the impact of industrialization on
water consumption.
Industrialization in Egypt is rising to the growing food demands and the fact that it is one of the most
promising options of development for Egypt. The Sector-wise water consumption over time shows that with an
increase in population, domestic water usage is increasing and so does industrialization. The impact that it has on
water consumption is given in the following table:
Table: Inflow/Outflow (bum/y)

Source: (Abdel_Rassoul, 2010)

Egypt's total annual water consumption has been estimated to be around 59.2 bum, with agricultural usage
accounting for approximately 84% of that amount. The remaining 16% is distributed between industrial, municipal,
and navigational uses, with 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Studies suggest that the total water consumption
increased to about 69.4 bum by the year 2000. While the agricultural and municipal sectors maintained similar
percentages of water usage to those in 1990, the industry's share rose by 50%, and navigational use decreased
significantly. (Zeid, 2007)

Table: Water availability and uses in Egypt, 1990

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Source: (Zeid, 2007)

Table: Water availability and uses in Egypt, 2000

Source: (Zeid, 2007)

According to Amr M. Abd-el-Kader * and S. M. Abdel_Rassoul, the inflow of water in Egypt was 4.6 bum
in 1990 and 7.9 bum in 2000 showing an increase of 58% of industrial demand. Of all available freshwater resources
and recycled water allocated for agriculture, industry, and municipal uses in 1997 were 82%, 11%, and 7%
respectively. The freshwater demand for different sectors was as following:

Table: Freshwater demands for the main economic and social use sectors

Source: (SAFWAT ABDEL-DAYEM1, 2007)

In situations such as those described above, the picture and the writing on the wall is very clear. One of the
most important facts to keep in consideration is the fact that the three western rivers, predominately the Indus River
on which Pakistan relies heavily for its irrigation, flow through the region of Kashmir. Kashmir hence has very
important strategic importance for Pakistan. All the water politics and the intimidation carried out thus far and to
come have their basis in Kashmir. Being the base through which this transboundary river flow is happening,

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Kashmir has become a flashpoint between the two countries in its relations. Both countries may put forward moral
stances and flattering, use slippery tongue, or accuse each other of human rights abuses on either side of Kashmir
but it is very easily inferred from the aforementioned data that what happens to the strategic resources of Kashmir
i.e. Water holds more importance to both sides than what happens to the people living within the territory. The
countries are using these people as a disguise to further their ulterior motives.
As mentioned above in the study, industrialization, to our surprise, uses more water with an increase in
industrialization. Most of Pakistan’s industry being agro-based, partly because of the increasing food demands and
being rich with cotton and jute resources, makes it susceptible to use more water since more industrialization means
more agriculture inputs, more agricultural inputs means cultivating more lands and that in return means setting up
more waterways and canals for those lands to fulfill their water demand. The Non-Agro based industrial sector,
though less in quantity and numbers, also requires water for its production and functioning. The comparative study
of Egypt provided earlier also provides a clear image of how industrialization caused the consumption of more
water in Egypt. The growing population coupled with the food security and development-oriented approach of the
country compels the country into increasing the industrialization sector’s scope and operation.

4 Conclusion
From the above tables, data, and their analysis, it is evident that the increase in industrialization, which is due to
the growing national demands for more development and food, has caused more water consumption and is on its
way to increasing more. The state of affairs of Pakistan’s industrial sector and its growing trends coupled with water
security and scarcity makes the picture worse for India-Pakistan relations with respect to Kashmir. The Growing
Industrialization in both countries will take them to a position worse than that of Egypt and other Nile river basin
riparian states where you get to see threats coming from Egypt to Ethiopia and Sudan and Ethiopia and vice versa
every now and then with Egypt now laying claims to the Ethiopian territory, Eritrea, in face of its growing water
security. The situation has culminated to a climax where Egypt started to go against the agreement that it itself
authored with its neighbors in 1959 (Erlich, 2002) The industrialization in Pakistan, be that agro-based or non-agro
based, will increasingly worsen the relations between the two countries. If Pakistan continued its journey of
industrialization, then we might get to see a lot of water politics with more severity and intensity happening in the
years to come.

5 Recommendations
Through the comparative study of Egypt, given earlier, it is writing on the wall for India and Pakistan that they
are heading towards a grave tussle that has the intensity and capability to sustain the test of times never experienced
before in their 75 years of co-existence. There are many steps that the authorities in Pakistan can take to steer the
country out of a major confrontation with India in the future. Each of the recommendations and claims, given here,
should be put to test and made a topic and subject for future research. The recommendations are given in the
following:
• The irrigation system that came into being in the aftermath of the Indus Water Treaty, provides, on
average, 139 MAF of fresh water annually to Pakistan. In Pakistan, about 30 MAF of water flows into the
sea without being utilized due to the country's limited storage capacity, which is only 30 days. In contrast,
Egypt has a water storage capacity of about 1000 days, and India has a storage capacity of 220 days.
(Qamar, September 2005) Pakistan hence need to construct large water reservoirs to increase the water
capacity of the country and with it increases the water security.
• Different (RCTs) Resource conservative technologies. Several practices, including Precision Land Leveling
(PLL), Raised Bed Planting (RBP), and High-Efficiency Irrigation Systems (HEISs), have the potential to
conserve approximately 47 MAF of water in the near future. These practices can be applied in the tertiary
irrigation system by lining watercourses and increasing irrigation application efficiency. (Shahid, 2022)
• Pakistan's population might reach 338 million by 2050 from an estimated 229 million currently (Pakistan
Population, 2022) and the country will face a 32 percent water crisis in 2025, which would decrease food
output by 70 million tons. In situations such as this, there is a dire need to strictly control the population
increase by seriously implementing population control protocols/measures which sit at the core of water
politics.
• Pakistan has one of the lowest water yields in the world. for instance, the water yield for wheat is 0.5
kg/m3, as opposed to 1.0 kg/m3 in India and 1.5 kg/m3 in California, serves as an illustration of this

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subpar performance (Bank, 2004) in this regard High Yielding Varieties, HYV, seeds must be used and its
implementation strictly ensured equally in the rural, urban educated and uneducated areas of the country by
the government.

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