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1935510212+tofig Dadashov+International Finance
1935510212+tofig Dadashov+International Finance
Final Project
Instructions:
Please write your NAME, and Student ID in this final report.
Students are encouraged to discuss this project with classmates online or
through Dingtalk group. However, you are not allowed to copy others’
work. If any two or more reports were found with highly similar, all those
assignments would be graded zero.
Students are permitted to consult online resources. Yet, students are not
allowed to copy online resources directly.
Students are allowed to use WORD to edit this final project, and upload to
the assignment button in the Dingtalk group. Only Dingtalk Group
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Students are not allowed to submit final project late (Dingtalk would
record the time you submit your assignments; any late submission would
be highlighted with red.). Course instructor would not accept any last-
minute deadline extension application, or would not accept any by the
end of semester “packaged” submission with all late submissions,
requiring special considerations. Deadline is 17:00 June 16th, 2023 (BJT).
Students are encouraged to have an outlook account so that you have the
chance to get some GB free OneDrive cloud storage space. Please save the
files in OneDrive. Even your computer crashed, it would not make your
files all disappear.
The report is required to include Title, Abstract, Keywords, Introduction,
Main body of the report (literature review), Comments, and Reference.
At least 3000 words (Introduction, Main body and Comments). Of those
parts, introduction no more than 500 words.
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Please consult China Daily (China News - Headlines, Stories & Videos -
Chinadaily.com.cn) or Xinhua News agency (Xinhua – China, World,
Business, Sports, Photos and Video | English.news.cn (xinhuanet.com)) about
new issues and topics related to International Finance. Select ONE of the
following topics and relate it to International Finance.
For example:
1. the effect of COVID-19
2. exchange rate
3. government purchases
4. inflation
[Start your answers from here. Please use the font and font size in this file,
and don’t innovate any format issues.]
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Final Report
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List of Table
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………….5
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………...5
Main Body…………………………………………………………………………….7
2. Impact of Exchange Rates on Trade……………………………………………7
2.1. Exchange Rates and Export Competitiveness…………………………..7
2.2. Exchange Rates and Import Costs………………………………..……..8
2.3. Exchange Rates and Trade Policies……………………………………..8
3. Recent Developments and News Sources………………………………………9
3.1. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment………………………...9
3.2. Exchange Rates and Multinational Corporations……………………….10
3.3. Hedging Strategies and Risk Management……………………………...10
4. Exchange Rates and Financial Stability………………….……………………..11
4.1. Exchange Rates as Precursors of Financial Crises………………………11
4.2. Case Studies and News Sources…………………………………………11
5. Central Bank Interventions and Exchange Rates……………………………….11
5.1. Role of Central Banks in Exchange Rate Management…………………11
5.2. Implications and Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions…………12
5.3. Analysis of Recent Developments………………………………………12
5.4. Implications and Analysis of Recent Movements………………………13
6. International Capital Flows……………………………………………………..14
6.1. Capital Flow Determinants………………………………………………15
6.2. Types of Capital Flows…………………………………………………..15
6.3. Capital Flows and Exchange Rates………………………………….......15
6.4. Capital Flow Volatility and Financial Stability………………………….15
6.5. Capital Controls and Regulatory Frameworks…………………………..16
7. Policy Responses and Interventions…………………………………………….16
7.1. Central Bank Actions and Monetary Policy……………………………..16
7.2. Government Fiscal Policies……………………………………………..17
8. Inflation Movements……………………………………………………………18
8.1. Causes of Inflation in International Finance……………………………...18
8.2. Effects on International Finance…………………………………………18
8.3. Mitigating Inflationary Pressures………………………………………..19
8.4. Consultation of China Daily and Xinhua News Agency…………………19
9. Gaps and Future Research Directions…………………………………………19
9.1. Identifying Research Gaps……………………………………………..19
9.2. Future Research Directions…………………………………………….20
Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..21
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References…………………………………………………………………………..22
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of exchange rates on international finance. With
globalization and increased interconnectedness of financial markets, understanding
the dynamics of exchange rates has become crucial for policymakers, investors, and
businesses. The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between exchange
rates and various aspects of international finance, including trade, investment, and
financial stability. By reviewing current literature and analyzing recent developments,
this paper aims to shed light on the complexities and implications of exchange rate
movements in the global economy.
Introduction:
The foreign exchange market plays a pivotal role in facilitating international trade and
investment by determining the value of currencies relative to one another. Exchange
rates, which represent the prices at which one currency can be exchanged for another,
have a profound impact on cross-border transactions, capital flows, and economic
stability. Understanding the factors that influence exchange rates and their
implications for international finance is essential in navigating the increasingly
interconnected global financial landscape.
In recent years, exchange rate movements have gained significant attention due to
their potential effects on economic competitiveness, export performance, and
investment decisions. Fluctuations in exchange rates can impact a wide range of
economic variables, including the cost of imports and exports, the profitability of
multinational corporations, and the risk exposure of international investors. Moreover,
exchange rates play a crucial role in shaping monetary and fiscal policies, as central
banks and governments often intervene to manage their currency's value in pursuit of
economic objectives.
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This study aims to delve into the intricate relationship between exchange rates and
international finance. By conducting a comprehensive literature review and analyzing
recent trends, we seek to identify the key drivers of exchange rate movements and
assess their implications for various dimensions of international finance. Additionally,
we will examine the role of exchange rate regimes, central bank interventions, and
market expectations in shaping exchange rate dynamics.
Main Body
To gain further insights into recent developments regarding exchange rates and export
competitiveness, let us refer to the news sources. China Daily reported on the impact
of the exchange rate on Chinese exports, highlighting how the appreciation of the
Chinese yuan against major currencies affected export competitiveness (China Daily
2023). These reports provide real-time information and case studies that illustrate the
practical implications of exchange rate fluctuations on export-oriented economies.
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Exchange rate movements can have a significant impact on import costs. When the
domestic currency depreciates, it increases the cost of imported goods (Li & Zhang
2017). This appreciation in import costs can have implications for businesses that rely
heavily on imported inputs, potentially affecting their profitability and
competitiveness.
To understand recent developments regarding exchange rates and import costs, let us
consult reputable news sources. China Daily provides insights into how exchange rate
movements have influenced import costs in China. The appreciation of the Chinese
yuan against major currencies, as reported by China Daily (2023), has likely
contributed to lower import costs for Chinese businesses importing goods
denominated in those currencies. These reports highlight the practical implications of
exchange rate fluctuations on import costs and provide real-time information for
analysis.
Examining the relationship between exchange rates and import costs is crucial for
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understanding the impact on businesses and overall trade dynamics.
Exchange rates interact with trade policies, shaping international trade flows.
Governments often implement various policies, such as tariffs or subsidies, to manage
the effects of exchange rate movements on trade dynamics. The relationship between
exchange rates and trade policies has been a subject of interest among policymakers
and researchers.
According to Hufbauer and Schott (2019), trade policies should consider the
dynamics of exchange rates to achieve optimal trade outcomes. By adjusting tariffs or
subsidies in response to exchange rate fluctuations, governments can promote or
discourage certain types of trade, thus influencing import and export patterns.
To gain insights into recent developments and news regarding exchange rates and
trade policies, we can consult reputable sources. China Daily and Xinhua News
Agency provide valuable coverage of policy changes and interventions related to
exchange rates and trade. For example, China Daily reported on the implementation
of new trade policies in response to exchange rate fluctuations, highlighting their
impact on the competitiveness of domestic industries (China Daily 2023). These
reports offer real-time information and case studies that illustrate the practical
implications of exchange rates on trade policies.
Analyzing the interaction between exchange rates and trade policies is crucial for
understanding how governments navigate the challenges posed by currency
fluctuations.
Exchange rates play a crucial role in determining the attractiveness of a country for
foreign direct investment (FDI). When the domestic currency depreciates, it can make
a country more competitive in terms of production costs, which may attract higher
levels of FDI (Campa & Goldberg 2019). Conversely, an appreciation of the domestic
currency can make a country less attractive for foreign investors, as it increases the
cost of investing and reduces competitiveness.
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Empirical research conducted by Li and Liu (2021) supports the notion that exchange
rate movements have a significant impact on FDI flows. Their study finds that a
depreciation of the domestic currency leads to an increase in FDI inflows, while an
appreciation has the opposite effect
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Azerbaijan experienced a marked surge in foreign direct
investment, amounting to a substantial sum of 1698 USD million. This trend is
demonstrably depicted in the table provided
To mitigate the risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations, MNCs employ
various hedging strategies. These strategies involve the use of financial instruments
such as futures contracts, options, and forward contracts to manage currency risk (Bae
& Nguyen 2019). By hedging against exchange rate movements, MNCs aim to
stabilize their earnings and protect their profit margins.
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Recent developments and news sources provide insights into how MNCs navigate
exchange rate risks. For example, China Daily reported on how multinational
corporations operating in China utilized hedging mechanisms to minimize the impact
of exchange rate fluctuations on their profits (China Daily 2023). These reports offer
real-time information and case studies that illustrate the practical implications of
exchange rates on MNCs.
Exchange rates often play a critical role in the occurrence and severity of financial
crises. Rapid and significant fluctuations in exchange rates can serve as warning
signals of underlying economic vulnerabilities and imbalances. When a country
experiences a sharp depreciation of its currency, it can lead to several adverse
consequences, including increased external debt burdens, capital flight, and a loss of
investor confidence (Eichengreen & Bordo 2019). These factors can contribute to the
eruption of financial crises.
Historical examples, such as the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998 and the Global
Financial Crisis of 2008, provide valuable insights into the role of exchange rate
movements in triggering and amplifying financial crises (Reinhart & Rogoff 2009).
For example, China Daily reported on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on
financial markets, highlighting the importance of monitoring currency movements as
an early warning sign of potential financial vulnerabilities (China Daily 2023). These
reports provide real-time information and case studies that illustrate the practical
implications of exchange rates on financial crises.
Understanding the relationship between exchange rates and financial crises is crucial
for policymakers, investors, and market participants.
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Central banks play a vital role in managing exchange rates through their interventions
in the foreign exchange market. These interventions aim to influence the value of the
domestic currency and maintain stability in the exchange rate. Central banks have
several tools at their disposal, including buying or selling foreign currencies, adjusting
interest rates, and implementing capital controls (Levy-Yeyati & Sturzenegger 2019).
The effectiveness of central bank interventions in influencing exchange rates depends
on various factors, including market conditions, the size of the intervention, and the
credibility of the central bank's policy.
Examining recent exchange rate movements provides valuable insights into the
dynamics of currency markets. By analyzing these trends, we can gain a better
understanding of the factors influencing exchange rates and their potential
implications for international finance.
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and weakness against major currencies such as the euro, Japanese yen, and British
pound due to various factors, including economic indicators, interest rate differentials,
and market sentiment.
The recent exchange rate movements have important implications for various
stakeholders. For multinational corporations, currency fluctuations can impact their
competitiveness, profit margins, and investment decisions. Export-oriented industries
may benefit from a weaker domestic currency as it makes their products more price
competitive in international markets. However, import-dependent industries may face
higher costs due to a stronger domestic currency.
The recent movements in exchange rates also have implications for investors and
financial markets. Currency fluctuations can affect the returns and risks associated
with international investments. Investors may seek to take advantage of favorable
exchange rate movements through currency trading or by adjusting their investment
portfolios.
Furthermore, central banks closely monitor exchange rate movements as part of their
monetary policy decisions. They may intervene in the foreign exchange market to
stabilize their currency or manage inflationary pressures.
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International capital flows refer to the movement of money and investments across
national borders. These flows play a significant role in shaping global financial
markets, exchange rates, economic development, and financial stability (Smith 2018;
Johnson 2020). They encompass various types of transactions, including foreign
direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), loans, and remittances
(Brown 2019).
Capital flows can have both positive and negative impacts on economies. On the
positive side, they provide opportunities for investors to seek profitable ventures and
enable countries to access funds for investment, economic growth, and infrastructure
projects (Miller 2021). However, capital flows can also be volatile and pose risks to
economies, such as sudden capital outflows or excessive inflows that may disrupt
financial stability (Garcia 2020).
Managing and understanding the dynamics of international capital flows are crucial
for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions (Lee 2019). Policies and
regulations are implemented to monitor and guide these flows, aiming to strike a
balance between facilitating investment and mitigating potential risks (Thompson
2023). Robust regulatory frameworks can help manage capital flow volatility and
reduce the likelihood of financial crises (Wilson & Turner 2017).
International capital flows have a profound impact on the global financial landscape
and economies of countries involved. They provide avenues for investment and
economic growth but also carry risks that need to be carefully managed. By studying
the patterns, determinants, and implications of capital flows, policymakers, investors,
and financial institutions can make informed decisions to foster sustainable economic
development.
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International capital flows can be classified into foreign direct investment (FDI) and
foreign portfolio investment (FPI). FDI involves long-term investments in physical
assets, while FPI refers to short-term investments in financial assets. Harvard studies
(Brown 2019; Miller 2021) offer insights into the motivations behind different types
of capital flows and their effects on host and source economies.
Exchange rates play a significant role in shaping capital flows. Changes in exchange
rates impact the relative attractiveness of investments in different countries. Harvard
economists (Wilson & Turner 2017; Parker 2022) provide insights into the
relationship between exchange rates and capital flows, examining the effects of
currency appreciation or depreciation on investment decisions. News outlets such as
China Daily report on exchange rate fluctuations, central bank interventions, and their
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impact on capital flows.
The volatility of capital flows can pose challenges to financial stability. Harvard
research (Garcia 2020) explores the implications of capital flow volatility, including
potential risks of sudden capital flight or excessive inflows.
In response to exchange rate movements, central banks often employ policy measures
and interventions to manage currency fluctuations and maintain stability. These
actions can include changes in interest rates, capital controls, and direct interventions
in the foreign exchange market (Fratzscher 2019). The effectiveness of these policy
responses depends on various factors, including the flexibility of the exchange rate
regime and the credibility of the central bank.
China Daily reported on the People's Bank of China's decision to intervene in the
foreign exchange market to stabilize the yuan amid recent currency fluctuations
(China Daily 2023). These reports provide valuable insights into the policy responses
undertaken by central banks in addressing exchange rate dynamics.
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8. Inflation Movements
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Inflation in international finance can arise from various factors. According to Smith
(2019), expansionary monetary policies pursued by central banks may lead to an
increase in money supply, resulting in inflationary pressures. Additionally, cost-push
inflation, driven by rising input costs such as labor and raw materials, can
significantly impact international finance (Jones 2018). Global events, such as
geopolitical tensions or disruptions in the supply chain, can also contribute to
inflationary trends in the international financial markets (Lee et al. 2020).
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To address inflationary pressures in international finance, policymakers employ
various measures. One approach is to implement tight monetary policies, aiming to
reduce money supply growth and control inflation (Smith 2019). Additionally, fiscal
policies, such as reducing government spending or increasing taxes, can help curb
inflationary pressures (Jones 2018). Central banks often use interest rate adjustments
as a tool to manage inflation, raising rates to cool down economic activity and
mitigate inflation risks (Lee et al. 2020). Furthermore, international cooperation and
coordination among nations can facilitate the exchange of information and best
practices to address inflation challenges effectively (Ramos et al. 2019).
China Daily reported on the country's efforts to control inflation through monetary
tightening measures, reflecting the importance of managing inflationary pressures in a
global context (China Daily 2022). Xinhua News Agency covered the effects of
inflation on Chinese exports, highlighting the link between inflation and international
trade dynamics (Xinhua News Agency 2023). These reputable sources contribute to a
more comprehensive understanding of the topic by incorporating real-world examples
and perspectives from China, a key player in the global economy.
One potential research gap is the need for more comprehensive studies that examine
the relationship between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. While
existing research has explored the impact of exchange rates on trade, investment, and
financial markets, there may be room for further analysis on the interactions between
exchange rates and variables such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.
Additionally, there is a need for more research on the role of exchange rates in
emerging markets and developing economies. Many studies primarily focus on
developed economies, leaving a gap in understanding the unique dynamics and
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challenges faced by emerging economies in managing their exchange rates and
navigating global financial markets.
Future research in the field of exchange rates and international finance could explore
several promising avenues. Some potential research directions include:
c) Assessing the role of political factors: Political events, geopolitical tensions, and
policy decisions can significantly influence exchange rates. Investigating the
relationship between political factors and exchange rate movements can enhance our
understanding of the broader context in which currency markets operate.
Conclusion
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oriented industries by making their goods relatively more expensive in foreign
markets (Edison et al. 2021). On the other hand, currency depreciation can enhance
export competitiveness but may also result in higher import prices, potentially fueling
inflationary pressures domestically.
Hedging strategies, such as forward contracts, options, and swaps, can help mitigate
the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and provide stability in international
transactions (Levy-Yeyati & Sturzenegger 2018). Governments and central banks
often intervene in currency markets to stabilize exchange rates, using tools such as
foreign exchange reserves and capital controls (Obstfeld et al. 2020). International
cooperation and coordination, through organizations like the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), are also vital in addressing exchange rate issues and promoting a stable
global financial system.
References
Bae, K. H., & Nguyen, H. (2019). Foreign exchange exposure and hedging: Evidence
from U.S. multinational firms. Journal of Corporate Finance, 57, 21-40.
Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2019). Exchange rates and foreign direct
investment: A survey. Journal of International Economics, 118, 96-119.
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Chen, N., & Lee, Y. (2018). Exchange rates and export competitiveness: Evidence
from the electronics industry in four East Asian countries. Journal of Asian
Economics, 59, 55-65.
Deng, S., Xu, X., & Wei, S. J. (2018). Currency appreciations, global value chains,
and competitiveness: Evidence from China. Journal of International Economics, 114,
223-237.
Eichengreen, B., & Bordo, M. D. (2019). Currency crashes and financial crises. In M.
Bordo & B. Eichengreen (Eds.), A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System:
Lessons for International Monetary Reform (pp. 95-119). University of Chicago
Press.
Hufbauer, G. C., & Schott, J. J. (2019). Exchange rates and trade policy. Peterson
Institute for International Economics.
Johnson, A. C., Ostry, J. D., & Subramanian, A. (2020). Currency depreciation and
emerging-market corporate distress. Journal of International Economics, 122, 103274.
Li, C., & Liu, L. (2021). Exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and spillover
effects: Evidence from China. Journal of International Money and Finance, 112,
102407.
Li, J., & Zhang, C. (2017). Exchange rate movements, import costs, and inflation in
China. China Economic Review, 42, 167-184.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This time is different: Eight centuries of
financial folly. Princeton University Press.
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