Government College University, Lahore

Department of Statistics
BIOSTATISTICS
STAT-4104
Assignment
B.S. (Honors)
Year-IV
Semester-VIII (Evening)
Group#6
Qurat-ul-Ayn Naeem -1248
Fatima Hassan Bukhari -1216
Zarfeen Shahzad -1239
Khizra Qassar -1232
Kashif Amin –1251

Submitted to:
Dr. Amina Shahzadi
Dated: 21/06/2023

1
 1. Perform a statistical analysis of a data set from health sciences, and hence
write a report of this case study.

AIDS diagnoses
transmission mode
and year of diagnosis
(2006–2015)
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is
an infection that attacks the body’s
immune system. Acquired
immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is the
most advanced stage of the disease. HIV
targets the body’s white blood cells, weakening the immune system. This makes it easier to get
sick with diseases like tuberculosis, infections and some cancers. HIV is spread from the body
fluids of an infected person, including blood, breast milk, semen and vaginal fluids. It is not
spread by kisses, hugs or sharing food. It can also spread from a mother to her baby. HIV can be
treated and prevented with antiretroviral therapy (ART). Untreated HIV can progress to AIDS,
often after many years. The data given in Table 1.1 is collected of HIV patients in European
Economic Area from 2006-2015. And we want to analyze which of the following factors are the
cause of HIV increase in European Economic Area.
Table 1.1
Year HIV Men who Injecting Heterosexual Mother- Haemophiliac Nosocomial Other/
Cases have sex drug use contact to-child /transfusion infection undetermined
with men recipient
2006 8305 1891 1967 3491 71 56 43 786
2007 7775 1850 1788 3268 65 35 38 731
2008 7712 1847 1572 3347 77 52 52 765
2009 6880 1785 1297 2940 76 34 28 720
2010 6674 1790 1164 2918 46 23 24 709
2011 5992 1670 1014 2625 48 10 22 603
2012 5973 1622 1004 2618 41 23 20 645
2013 5271 1509 856 2240 57 13 15 581
2014 4630 1340 656 2047 22 9 16 540
2015 3754 1107 479 1734 17 7 8 402

Data link:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/hivaids-eu-and-eea-tables-ms-excel-files-zipped-file

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 Graphical Representation:

8000

6000
2006
4000
2007
2000 2008
2009
0 2010
s es en us
e ct hi
ld nt on ed 2011
m ta ie cti in
Ca ug n -c cip e
V ith dr co -to e in
f rm 2012
HI xw al r r l te
ng xu he io
n ia de 2013
se cti s e ot us om un
ve je ro M f
oc r/ 2014
ha In te ns s he
ra No
t
ho He /t O 2015
w li ac
en hi
M op
e m
Ha

Descriptive Statistics:

N Mean SE StDev Variance Mini Q1 Media Q3 Maxi Kurtos

Variable Mean n is
HIV Cases 10 6297 462 1460 2133023 3754 5111 6333 7728 8305 -0.70
Men who have sex 10 1641.1 80.7 255.2 65104.1 1107 1466.8 1727.5 1847.8 1891 0.73
with men
Injecting drug use 10 1180 152 481 231792 479 806 1089 1626 1967 -0.79
Heterosexual 10 2723 184 582 338928 1734 2192 2772 3288 3491 -0.90
contact
Mother-to-child 10 52.00 6.71 21.22 450.44 17.0 36.25 52.50 72.25 77.00 -0.89
Haemophiliac/ 10 26.20 5.59 17.68 312.62 7.00 9.75 23.00 39.25 56.00 -0.85
transfusion recipi
Nosocomial 10 26.60 4.36 13.79 190.04 8.00 15.75 23.00 39.25 52.00 -0.36
infection
Other/undetermined 10 648.2 37.6 118.9 14136.6 402 570.8 677.0 739.5 786.0 0.54

Analysis: -
Software used: MINITAB (STAT-> Regression-> Fit Regression Model)

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 WORKSHEET 1
Regression Analysis: HIV Cases versus Men who have sex with men, Injecting drug
use, Heterosexual contact, Mother-to-child
Hypothesis
Null Hypothesis H 0=0.05
Alternative Hypothesis H 1 ≠ 0.05
Significance Level α =0.05

Regression Equation
HIV Cases=−25+1. 029 Men who have sex with men+0 . 933 Injecting drug use+ 1. 260 Heterosexual contact + 1. 9

Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant -25 122 -0.20 0.848
Men who have sex with men 1.029 0.211 4.88 0.005 23.65
Injecting drug use 0.933 0.112 8.33 0.000 23.72
Heterosexual contact 1.260 0.151 8.35 0.000 63.04
Mother-to-child 1.90 1.10 1.73 0.145 4.46

Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)
33.2112 99.97% 99.95% 99.88%

Analysis of Variance
Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Regression 4 19191689 4797922 4349.94 0.000
Men who have sex with men 1 26257 26257 23.81 0.005
Injecting drug use 1 76606 76606 69.45 0.000
Heterosexual contact 1 76871 76871 69.69 0.000
Mother-to-child 1 3293 3293 2.99 0.145
Error 5 5515 1103
Total 9 19197204

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 Conclusion

Reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than or equal to your significance level.

P-value ≤ 0.05

Variable Coefficient T-value Sig. level P-value Conclusion

Men who have sex with men 1.029 4.88 0.05 0.005 We reject Ho
Injecting drug use 0.933 8.33 0.05 0.000 We reject Ho
Heterosexual contact 1.260 8.35 0.05 0.000 We reject Ho
Mother-to-child 1.90 1.73 0.05 0.145 We accept Ho

Interpretation:

Let,
z => HIV Cases
x 1=> Men who have sex with men

x 2=> Injecting drug use

x 3=> Heterosexual contact

x 4 => Mother-to-child (non-significant)

z=−25+ 1.029 x 1 +0.933 x2 +1.260 x 3+ 1.90 x 4

 Men who have sex with men (1), Injecting drug use (0), Heterosexual contact (0)
z=−25+ 1.029 x 1 +0.933 x2 +1.260 x 3
z=−25+ 1.029(1)+0.933 (0)+ 1.260(0)

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 z=−25+ 1.029(1)
z=−23.971
 Men who have sex with men (0), Injecting drug use (1), Heterosexual contact (0)
z=−25+ 1.029 x 1 +0.933 x2 +1.260 x 3
z=−25+ 1.029(0)+ 0.933(1)+ 1.260(0)
z=−25+ 0.933(1)
z=−24.067

 Men who have sex with men (0), Injecting drug use (0), Heterosexual contact (1)
z=−25+ 1.029 x 1 +0.933 x2 +1.260 x 3
z=−25+ 1.029(0)+ 0.933(0)+1.260(1)
z=−25+ 1.260(1)
z=−23.74

i. We see that R2 (coefficient of determination) = 0.9997, this implies that by using these
independent variables (Men who have sex with men, injecting drug use, Heterosexual
contact, Mother-to-child) in a first order model to predict z, 99.97% variation has been
explained of HIV cases by Men who have sex with men, injecting drug use, Heterosexual
contact, whereas Mother-to-child is not playing any part in explaining the variation of
HIV cases as it is non-significant. Adjusted R2 of this model is 99.95%.
ii. As coefficients of Men who have sex with men, injecting drug use, Heterosexual contact
are positive, therefore these factors have positive effect on HIV cases. These can be
interpreted as:
Men who have sex with men: with 10% increase in Men who have sex with men the HIV
cases are increased by 10 points provided all other variables are kept constant.
Injecting drug use: with 10% increase in Injecting drug use the HIV cases are increased
by 9 points provided all other variables are kept constant.
Heterosexual contact: with 1% increase in heterosexual contact the HIV cases are
increased by 1.2 points when all other variables are kept constant.
Mother-to-child: this variable doesn’t play a part in this model as the p-value is greater
that the significance level due to which we reject the alternative hypothesis. Mother-to-
child variable is insignificant in this model.

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 WORKSHEET 2
Regression Analysis: HIV Cases versus Haemophiliac/transfusion recipi, Nosocomial
infection, Other/undetermined
Regression Equation
HIV Cases=−163+ 4 . 9 Haemophiliac /transfusion recipi+ 25 .7 Nosocomial infection+8 . 71 Other /undetermined

Coefficients
Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant -163 964 -0.17 0.871
Haemophiliac/transfusion recipi 4.9 18.6 0.26 0.801 8.84
Nosocomial infection 25.7 24.1 1.06 0.328 8.99
Other/undetermined 8.71 2.00 4.36 0.005 4.58

Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)
332.800 96.54% 94.81% 82.48%

Analysis of Variance
Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Regression 3 18532670 6177557 55.78 0.000
Haemophiliac/transfusion recipi 1 7707 7707 0.07 0.801
Nosocomial infection 1 125579 125579 1.13 0.328
Other/undetermined 1 2107790 2107790 19.03 0.005
Error 6 664534 110756
Total 9 19197204

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 Conclusion

Variable Coefficient T-value Sig. Level P-value Conclusion

Haemophiliac/ transfusion recipi 4.9 0.26 0.05 0.801 We accept Ho
Nosocomial infection 25.7 1.06 0.05 0.328 We accept Ho
Other/undetermined 8.71 4.36 0.05 0.005 We reject Ho

Interpretation

Let,
z => HIV Cases
x 5=> Haemophiliac/transfusion recipi (non-significant)

x 6=> Nosocomial Infection (non-significant)

x 7=> other/undetermined

z=−163+ 4.9 x5 +25.7 x 6 +8.71 x 7

 Other/undetermined (1)
z=−163+ 8.71 ( 1 )
z=−154.29

I. We see that R2 (coefficient of determination) = 0.9654, this implies that by using

the independent variable (other/undetermined) in a first order model to predict
z, 96.54% variation has been explained of HIV cases by other/undetermined
variables, whereas Haemophiliac/transfusion recipi and Nosocomial infection are
not playing any part in explaining the variation of HIV cases as they non-
significant. Adjusted R2 of this model is 94.81%.

II. As coefficient of other/ undetermined variable is positive, therefore this factor

has positive effect on HIV cases. This can be interpreted as:
Other/undetermined: with 10% increase in other/undetermined variable the
HIV cases are increased by 87 points provided all other variables are kept
constant.
Haemophiliac/ transfusion recipi: this variable doesn’t play a part in this model
as the p-value is greater that the significance level due to which we reject the
alternative hypothesis. Haemophiliac/ transfusion recipi variable is insignificant
in this model.

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Nosocomial infection: this variable doesn’t play a part in this model as the p-
value is greater that the significance level due to which we reject the alternative
hypothesis. Nosocomial infection variable is insignificant in this model.