4-1 inferential stats overview

- Inferential statistics are used to interpret data and draw conclusions.

- What is the probability that the difference between these means was due to change?
o If low probability:
▪ Chance is unlikely explanation.
▪ if the difference is likely due to the difference in the IV conditions, then this
is what we are aiming for.
o If high probability:
▪ If chance is our explanation, then we do not have enough data and evidence
to draw our conclusions on the basis of the difference IV conditions. This is
called random chance variability.
▪ Not a meaningful difference between the different IV groups: normal chance
variability.

4-2 inferential stats coin flip

- Normal chance variability in the coin flips would be getting any number of heads or tails that
are not strictly of 50%.
- If 10 out of 10 flips were heads or 0 out of 10 flips were heads, it is unlikely by chance. In this
case, random chance is not probable and other explanations should be found.
- It can be done by getting more samples in time intervals and see the frequency of the heads
and tails. This will give us a bell curve of normal distribution which explains the probability of
obtaining each number of heads is by chance.

- The operational definition of the cut-off point from where we decide what is something rare
by chance or common by chance is called checking the statistical significance.
- The results are significant when,
P < 0.05
- If SPSS value is < 0.05, then:
o Rare by chance and statistically significant
o Need alternative explanation.
 - If SPSS value is > 0.05, then:
o Common by chance and not statistically significant
o Chance is the probable explanation.

4-3 null hypothesis significance testing part 1

- Null hypothesis: it suggests that there is no significance difference between the two IV
groups.
o H0: µ1 = µ2
- Alternative hypothesis: there is a significant difference between the two conditions.
o H1: µ1 ≠ µ2
- The significance value (p value) is more than 0.05, we have to accept the null hypothesis. We
just do not have enough data to disprove the null hypothesis. Some possible areas of
improvement would be using a better dosage, more participants, or any other
improvements in the design.
- P value is less than 5%, then chance is not a probable explanation and the results are
statistically significant. Hence, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative
hypothesis.

4-4 null hypothesis significance testing part 2

- There can be times when we draw incorrect conclusions even with experiments with p value
less than 0.05.
- When we reject H0, but H0 was true, then it is incorrect. This is either called “false alarm” or
Type 1 Error.
- When we fail to reject H0, but H1 was true, then it is again incorrect. This is either called
“miss” or Type 2 Error.
- Probability of type 1 error depends on the criterion of p value = 0.05.
- Probability of type 2 error depends on many factors in the experiments, but the most
important is p value = 0.02.
- Since it is more important and serious to not falsely draw conclusions than missing a
significant result, the p value is 0.02 which is a smaller value.