33 POISSON DISTRIBUTION qundom variable X is said to follow poisson distribution if the probability of x is ven by Age P(X = x) = p(x) >» *=0,1,2,... x! Where 2 Te Lis called the parameter of the distribution. ba Scanned with CamScanner5.28 Chapter 5 Some Special Probability Distributions 5-3.1 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution Poisson distribution is a limiting case of binomial distribution under the following conditions: (i) The number of trials should be infinitely large, i.e., n 3 °°. (ii) The probability of successes p for each trial should be very small, i.e., p > 0, (iii) np = A should be finite where / is a constant. Scanned with CamScanner3.2 Examples of Poisson Distribution “ (i) Number of defective bulbs produced by a reputed company (i) Number of telephone calls per minute at a switchboard (ii) Number of cars passing a certain point in one minute (iv) Number of printing mistakes per page in a large text (v) Number of persons born blind per year in a large city 3.3 Conditions of Poisson Distribution ‘The Poisson distribution holds under the following conditions: (i) The random variable X should be discrete. (i) The numbers of trials n is very large. (iii) The probability of success p is very small (very close to zero). (iv) 2=npis finite. (v) The occurrences are rare. 5.3.4 Constants of the Poisson Distribution 1, Mean of the Poisson Distribution BO)= x pa) 0 atte => x! xe* age 0 xt seh gpa Sox Me shot y 2 zal 1D! =ret 2 e (a2 5 a [ee she o* xt x! “al sce Scanned with CamScanner30 Chapter 5 Some Special "°°" ‘ctribution 2. Variance of the Poisson Distribu Var(xX) = B(X*)= 4° =y 8 pw-w? ae pe 9? xt Ma aye ap xfo-peS M: Age Ags ed 2 (x— eA wee 7 see +d Fy 0 Ms x x0 ateDeA MEM gg? & xQx=DX-2)-1 = yr : (es Lt re Lqoni* 2 2 (reaeBsJaanat amet 4 A? 4A-f? Wo M+a-a Vosun =4 3. Standard Deviation of the Poisson Distribution SD = Variance = A 4. Mode of the Poisson Distribution Mode isthe value of x for which the probability p(x) is maximum, P(x) 2 p(x+1) and P(x) p(x-1) When = p(x) 2 p(x + 1), chat eh gel “al (r+)! AL x41 (xtl2a x2A-1 Similarly, for p(x) 2 p- 1), xsd le Scanned with CamScanner"5 Recurrence Relation for the Poisson Distribution the Poisson distribution, -A yx pixy=* x! ea gull ptt eA ast xt Pay (xtD! et ae P(x+1) Scanned with CamScanner—_——— T—”™mmnnmyym::7£7:_"“€€_*_ ‘ample 3 If the mean of a Poisson variable is 1.8, find (i) P(X > 1), (ii) P(X =5), and (iii) PO < X <5). Solution For a Poisson distribution, A=18 A ax 18) gx Paya gn x! x! “_“ (i) P(X >1)=1-P(X <1) =1-[P(X =0)+ P(X =] 1 =1-) P(X =x) x=0 1 -18 =1- ye 1" =o x! =0.5372 Gi) PX =5)= e' 81.85 5 = 0.026 Gi) PO Px =x) 0.5974 4 If a Poisson distribution is such that 3 Px 1)= P(X =3), find ( POX 1), (ii) PIX $3), and (iii) P2 1), (ii) P(X $3), and (iii) PSX <5). Solution Fora Poisson distribution, A ax P(X =x) = a x50,1,2.. x! 3 yPX=)) = P(X =3) setal eA 21 3 3,_a3 6 B-90 =0 Scanned with CamScanneratt istributions .36 Chapter 5 Some Special Probability pistributi A(A? -9)=0 A=0,3,-3 ince A>0, A=3 33x lence, P(x=x)= a. x=0,1,2,-. (i) P(X21N) =1-P(X<1) =1-P(X =0) 33° 0! = 0.9502 P(X <$3)= P(X =0)+ P(X = I) + P(X = 2)+ P(X = 3) =I- (ii) 2 = YP =x) x=0 3 e 3% x! x=0 = 0.6472 (iii) P(2< X <5)= P(X =2)+ P(X =3)+ P(X =4)+ P(X =5) 5 =) P(X =x) Scanned with CamScanner\Axample 10 If X is a Poisson variate such that 1 3 P(X =4)= 5 P(X =2)+ P(X =0) Find (i) the mean of X, and (ii) P(X < 2), Scanned with CamScanner5.39 5.3 Polsson Distribution Solution (@ Fora Poisson distribution, aw Pxex) = yop... x! BPX = 4) =1 PX =2)+ PO =0) eet ety? oma} o! A‘ -24? -8=0 (2? -4) (02 42)=0 Aa (Ais real) A=2 (2 A>0) Mean = A=2 29: Hence, P(X =x) ; x=0,1,2,... x! Gi) P(X $2) = P(X =0)+ P(X =1)+ P(X =2) 2 =D P(X =x) eat x! = 0.6766 ‘ample 11 A manufacturer of cotterpins knows that 5% of his products are defective. [fhe sells cotterpins in boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than 10 pins will be defective, what is the approximate probability that a box Will fail to meet the guaranteed quality? Solution p be the probability of a pin being defective. P=5%=0.05, n= 100 : ince p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used. A= np =100 x 0.05 =5 7 be the random variable which denotes the number of defective pins in a box of Scanned with CamScanner540 Chapter 5. some special Probability Distributions Probability Of x defective pins in a box of 100 Probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality P(X >10)=1-P(X s 10) 19 =1-) P(X =x) x0 10 6-55 _ Fxample 12 A car-hire firm has two cars, which it hires out day by day. The numbey of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1.5. Calculate the Proportion of days on which (i) Neither car is used, and (ii) the proportion of days on which some demand is refused. Solution : A=15 Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of demands for a car on each day, Probability of days on which there are x demands for a car 7) ¥=0,1,2,.., x x! @_ Proportion or probability of days on which neither car is used Gi) Proportion or probability of da 'ys on Which some demand is refused P(X >2)=1-P(X $2) Scanned with CamScanner5.3. Poisson Distribution 5.44 SO ——$————————— ple 13 coins are tossed 6400 times. Using the Poisson distribution, what is ine approximate probability of getting six heads 10 times? solution etp be the probability of getting one head with one coin. 1 p=s 2 ed probability of getting 6 heads with 6 coins = (3) “a n= 6400 1 A Aenp= sa00( 2.) =100 ud a Probability of getting x heads ~Aax € P= x)= = Probability of getting 6 heads 10 times 100 99! e109" =1.025x10? 10! P(X =10)= Example 14 {2% of lightbulbs are defective, find the probability that (i) at least one is defective, and (ii) exactly 7 are defective. Also, find P(1 < X < 8) ina sample of 100. Solution Let p be the probability of defective bulb. p=2% = 0.02 n=100 Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used. 25 np = 100(0.02) =2 ae the random variable which denotes the number of defective bulbs in a sample Probability of x defective bulb in a sample of 100 emda ems at x! P(X=x)= + ¥=0,1,2,.. Scanned with CamScannerNST Some Special Probability DistribUnIo"™ © Probabitity that atleast one bulb is defective P(X 21) =1-P(x =0) 2° o! = 0.8647 Gi) Probability that exactly 7 bulbs are defective “27 P(X= =3)=1-P(X <3) =1-[P(X =0)+(X =D=P(X =2) =1-Yrx=s) = +P(X =3)] Uf two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards which are diamonds, using Poisson distribution, find the probability of getting nwo diamonds at least 3 times in 51 consecutive trials of two cards drawing each time. Solution Letp be the probability of getting two diamonds from a pack of 52 cards. Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used. 3 A=np=51{—|=3 _ (3) Let X be the random variable which denotes the drawing of two diamond cards. Probability of x trials of drawing two diamond cards in 51 trials pags o3qr ee x=0,1,2,... x! x! Probability of getting two diamond cards at least 3 times in 51 tials P(X23)=1-P(X <3) =1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1) + P(X =2)] ex “uppose a book of 585 pages contains 43 typogray ges iphical errors. if ese errors are randomly distributed throughout the book, what is the robability that 10 pages, selected at random, will be Sree from errors? Scanned with CamScannertity Distributions 5.44 Chapter S Some Special Probability Distribut Solution Let p be the probability of errors in a page. p=“2.-00735, n=10 585 / Since p is very small and 1 is large, Poisson distribution is used. A= np = 10(0.0735) = 0.735 : Let X be the random variable which denotes the errors in the pages. Probability of x errors in a page in a book of 585 pages emia chen 0-139 xt P(X=2)= x=0,1,2,.. Probability that a random sample of 10 pages will contain no error. 07350.735° = 0.4795 _xample 18 ‘ A hospital switchboard receives an average. of 4 emergency calls ina 10-minute interval. What is the probability that (i) there are at mos 2 emergency calls? (ii) there are exactly 3 emergency calls in an interal of 10 minutes? Solution Let p be the probability of receiving emergency calls per minute, 4 = 204, n= P= n=10 A=np=10(0.4)=4 Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of emergency calls F* minute. Probability of x emergency calls per minute A yx 4 | (eandas SenAe P= ==, 2 0,1,2, Probability that there are at most 2 emergency calls P(X $2) = P(X =0)+ P(X =1)4 P(X 2) Scanned with CamScanner5.3. Poisson Distribution 5.45 Probability that there are exactly 3 emergency call 3 ncy calls, P(X =3) ample 19 A manufacturer, who produces medicine bottles, finds that 0.1% of the bottles are defective. The bottles are packed in boxes containing 500 bottles. A drug manufacturer buys 100 boxes from the producer of bottles. Using Poisson distribution, find how many boxes will contain (i) no defective bottles and (ii) at least 2 defective bottles. Solution Let p be the probability of deflective bottles. p'=0.1% = 0.001 n=500 A= np = 500(0.001) = 0.5 Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective bottles in a box of 500. Probability of x defective bottles in a box of 500 ays y05Q.5% pena, 120,12. x! x! (i) Probability of no defective bottles in a box 03° _ 9.6065 P(X =0) == Number of boxes containing no defective bottles : FQ) =N P(x=0)= 100(0.6065) = 61 (ii) Probability of at least 2 defective bottles =P(X <2) — [P(X =0)+ P(X = Dd) 1 . a1 P(X =) 0 1 05 95° x! x0 = 0.0902 Number of boxes containing at least 2 defect; fs) = N P(X 22) = 100 (0.0902) = 9 lefective bottles Scanned with CamScanneruy WIDUIIWULIUTID \ Bxdimple 20 na i certain factory turning out blades, there is a small chance fa i: T any blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10, ‘sé the Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number o packets containing no defective, one defective, and two defective blades in a consignment of 10000 packets. Solution Let p be the probability of defective blades in a packet. n=10, N=10000 1 = np =10( |= 0.02 Ann (a5) Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective blades in a packet. . Probability of x defective blades in a packet WA 4x 0.02 x P(x=n=* AE 0.02" = 0,1,2)-: ¢ x! x! (i) Probability of no defective blades in a packet -0.02 992° pur =0)=2 —2™ = 0.9802 0! . Number of packets with no defective blades fQ)=NP(X=0)= 10000(0.9802) = 9802 (ii), Probability of one defective blade in a packet 0.02 9,99! P(X=1 = 0.0196 Number of packets with one defective blade SQ) = N P(X = 1) = 10000 (0.0196) = 196 (iii) Probability of two defective blades in a packet 70.02 9972 P(X = 2) == 1.96 x10 , Number of packets with 2 defective blades f(x) =N P(X =2) = 10000 (1.96 x 10) = 1.96 = 2 Scanned with CamScanner