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Portfolio Theory Pt1
Portfolio Theory Pt1
Portfolio Theory Pt1
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Learning Objectives
The learning objectives for this section are to:
understand the apply the concept of work with a portfolio understand how
concepts of risk risk aversion in that allocates funds leverage can be used
aversion and utility measuring a utility between a risky in capital allocation
function and asset and a risk-free
understand how risk asset
aversion affects
capital allocation
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Background
Portfolio construction comprises two components:
1. The capital allocation decision: the allocation of the complete
portfolio to a riskless asset and a risky portfolio.
2. The asset allocation decision: the composition of the risky
portfolio of the complete portfolio.
This section focuses on the capital allocation decision, which depends
on the risk-return trade-off offered by the risky portfolio but also the
investor’s risk aversion. MPT Part 2 focuses on the asset allocation
decision.
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1. Risk Aversion and Utility
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• Consider the following: A coin will be flipped; if it comes up heads, you
receive R1000; if it comes up tails, you receive nothing. The expected
payoff is 0.5(R1000) + 0.5(R0) = R500.
• A risk-averse investor would choose a payment of R500 (a certain
outcome) over the gamble.
• A risk-seeking investor would prefer the gamble to a certain payment
of R500.
• A risk-neutral investor would be indifferent between the gamble and
a certain payment of R500.
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• A risk-averse investor will only hold a risky portfolio if the extra return
that he earns is adequate compensation for the additional risk (i.e. a
+ve risk premium).
• Portfolios with higher expected returns and lower risk are considered
more attractive and will therefore be ranked higher in terms of
preference.
• BUT, risk generally increases with expected returns implying that the
investor must be prepared to accept more risk in exchange for a higher
return.
• How will an investor choose between these portfolios? We need to
consider Utility Theory.
Portfolios E(r) rf E(r) - rf σ
Low Risk 5% 3% 2% 7%
Medium Risk 10% 3% 7% 12%
High Risk 15% 3% 12% 20%
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• An investor’s utility function represents the investor’s preferences
in terms of risk and return (i.e. his/her degree of risk aversion).
• We assume that expected return and risk are the only portfolio
characteristics that investors care about.
• An indifference curve (IC) is a tool from economics that, in this
application, plots combinations of expected return and risk
(standard deviation) among which an investor is indifferent.
• The investor’s utility is the same for all points along a single IC.
• IC I1 represents the most preferred portfolios; the investor will
prefer any portfolio along I1 to any portfolio on either I2 or I3.
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For a risk-averse investor:
I1 Higher Utility
Expected Return
I2
I3 Lower Utility
C B
E(r)2
A
E(r)1
Same measure
of utility
σ3 σ1 σ2 Standard Deviation
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• ICs slope upward for risk-averse investors as they will only take on
more risk if they are compensated with greater expected returns.
This is known as the risk-return trade-off.
• A more risk averse investor requires a greater increase in expected
return to compensate for a given increase in risk so their ICs will be
steeper reflecting a higher risk aversion coefficient (see next figure).
• A less risk averse investor requires a smaller increase in expected
return to compensate for a given increase in risk so their ICs will be
flatter reflecting a lower risk aversion coefficient (see next figure).
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Risk-averse vs risk-loving vs risk-neutral investors
More Risk
Averse Moderately Risk
steeper Averse
Less Risk Averse
E(r)
flatter
E(r1)
Risk Neutral
Risk Loving
σ1 σ2 σ
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• To rank investment portfolios, it is necessary to assign them a level or
measure of utility which is based on expected return and variance.
This is defined by:
Returns and std dev MUST BE
1 2 expressed as decimals (and
𝑈𝑈 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟 − 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 not as a whole number) in
2
this equation.
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• Example 1: Assume an investor with a risk aversion of 3 has a choice
between two shares with expected return and standard deviation as
shown in the table. Which share should he invest in?
Vodacom MTN
E (r ) 10% 12%
σ 9% 13%
1
𝑈𝑈 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟 − 𝐴𝐴𝜎𝜎 2 Note, returns and std dev
2 are expressed as decimals
UV = 0.1 – ½*3*0.092 = 0.0879 (and not %s) in this
UM = 0.12 – ½*3*0.132 = 0.0947 equation.
Therefore choose MTN as it results in higher utility based on the
investor’s coefficient of risk aversion.
We can convert these utility scores to %s by multiplying by 100, which represents
the certainty equivalent rate of return (CERR). Thus, the respective CERRs for
Vodacom and MTN are 8.79% and 9.47%
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• Example 2: A portfolio has an expected return of 15% and a standard
deviation of 17%. The risk-free rate is 3.44%. Investor X has a coefficient
of risk aversion of 4 and investor Y has a coefficient of risk aversion of 8.
Which investor is indifferent between the risky portfolio and the risk-
free asset?
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The Mean-Variance Criterion
σA σ
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• The criterion by which the choice of portfolio A is made is the mean-
variance (M-V) criterion. It can be stated as follows:
• For the M-V criterion to hold, at least one inequality is strict (so as
to rule out indifference between the two portfolios). Thus:
• If 𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟𝐴𝐴 = 𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝐵𝐵), then 𝜎𝜎𝐴𝐴 < 𝜎𝜎𝐵𝐵
• If 𝜎𝜎𝐴𝐴 = 𝜎𝜎𝐵𝐵 then, 𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟𝐴𝐴 > 𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝐵𝐵).
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• It is possible for the investor to identify other portfolios that are
equally desirable as portfolio A (see figure on next slide):
• Moving from A, an increase in σ, lowers utility and must be
compensated for by an increase in E(r). Thus C is equally desirable as
A.
• A decrease in σ raises utility and thus results in a lower E(r) as with
Portfolio D.
• The investor will be indifferent between portfolios C, A and D (and all
others) that plot on that IC and the choice between them will depend
on the trade-off between risk and return.
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According to the M-V criterion:
• A, C, D, E & F dominate B.
• The investor would be indifferent
between D, A & C but there is a trade-
off between risk and return.
• F & E dominate D, A, C & B.
E(r)
I II
Portfolio E Portfolio C
Portfolio F
E(rp)
Portfolio A
Portfolio D
Portfolio B
III IV
σp σ
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2. Capital Allocation
Risk-free asset
Risky assets
Level of Risk
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3. Portfolios of One Risky Portfolio & a
Risk-Free Asset
• The investment in risky assets can be viewed as a single risky portfolio
that comprises many risky securities. As we move in and out of safe
assets, we alter our holdings of the risky portfolio accordingly.
• The portfolio comprising the risk-free asset and the risky portfolio is
known as the complete portfolio.
• For the risky portfolio:
• The uncertain expected return: E(rp)
• The risk associated with the expected return: σp
• The % of funds invested in the risky portfolio: y
• For the risk-free asset:
• The certain return: rf.
• No risk: σrf = 0%
• The % of funds invested in the risk-free asset: 1 - y
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**Note: r refers to the total return
Rearranging:
[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ] =
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 + 𝑦𝑦[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ] Risk premium
𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐 = 𝑦𝑦𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝
• The expected return and std dev of the complete portfolio will be:
E(rc) = 7 + y[15 – 7] and σc = y22
The basic rate earned The risk premium the The std dev of the
on this portfolio is portfolio is expected to complete portfolio is the
the risk free rate of earn is 8% if 100% is std dev of the risky
7%. invested in the risky portfolio multiplied by
portfolio (i.e. y = 1) or the weight of the risky
less than 8% if y < 1. portfolio (y) in the
complete portfolio.
• The graph shows the investment opportunity set, which is the set of
feasible expected return and std dev pairs of all portfolios resulting
from different values of y.
• The straight line is known as the capital allocation line (CAL) which
plots the expected return and std dev of the complete portfolio
comprising different weightings in the risky portfolio and risk-free
asset.
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E(r)
Capital Allocation Line (CAL)
P
E (rp) = 15%
Slope = E (rp) - rf = 8%
8/22
rf = 7%
F
σp = 22% σ
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• The slope of the CAL (rise/ run):
This is the Sharpe Ratio and shows the
increase in expected return per unit of
[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ]
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = additional std dev (i.e. incremental
𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝 return per incremental risk).
[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 )−𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ]
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 + 𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐
𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝
𝜎𝜎
Note: this can also be derived by substituting in the std dev equation for y (𝑦𝑦 = 𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐 ) into
𝑝𝑝
the expected return formula: (𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 + 𝑦𝑦[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ]) as follows:
𝜎𝜎
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 + 𝑐𝑐 [𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ]
𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝
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i.e. 50% is invested in the risky portfolio and 50% is
invested in the risk-free asset.
OR
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑦𝑦𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) + (1 − 𝑦𝑦)𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 = 15*0.5 + (1 – 0.5)*7 = 11%
𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 −𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓
𝑆𝑆𝑐𝑐 = 𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐
= (11 – 7)/11 = 0.36
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• Portfolios to the left of P are lending portfolios as an investor “lends” money by
investing in the risk-free asset.
• What about points to the right of P? To get to points beyond P, an investor must
borrow at the risk-free rate and invest more in the risky portfolio (i.e. use leverage).
Hence these are borrowing portfolios.
• Whether an investor has a borrowing or lending portfolio depends on their level of
risk aversion (as captured by their IC).
Optimal CAL
Expected Complete
Return Portfolio
P
Optimal
Complete
Portfolio
rf
Standard
Deviation
Scenario 1: Borrow at the risk-free rate and invest in the risky portfolio.
Using the info from the previous example and assuming leverage of
50%, what is the expected return, std dev and Sharpe ratio of the
complete portfolio?
Leverage of 50% means that an
y = 1.5 and 1 – y = -0.5 investor borrows 50% of their
investment total. The total
proportion invested in the risky
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 + 𝑦𝑦[𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 ] = 7 + 1.5*8 = 19% portfolio is 150% (y = 1.5). As the
OR investor borrows at the risk-free
𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 ) = 𝑦𝑦𝐸𝐸(𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 ) + (1 − 𝑦𝑦)𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 = 1.5*15 + -0.5*7 = 19% rate (rather than investing), 1- y
is negative.
𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐 = 𝑦𝑦𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝 = 1.5*22 = 33%
𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟𝑐𝑐 −𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓
𝑆𝑆𝑐𝑐 = = (19 – 7)/33 = 0.36
𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐
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E(r) Capital Allocation Line (CAL)
C
E (rc) = 19%
P
E (rp) = 15%
Slope = E (rp ) - rf =
8/22 8%
rf = 7%
F
σp = 22% σc = 33% σ
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Scenario 2: Borrow and invest in the risky portfolio but the borrowing
rate is greater than the risk-free rate.
Using the info from the previous example but with risk-free borrowing
at 9% (risk-free lending is still 7%) and assuming leverage of 50%, what
is the expected return, std dev and Sharpe ratio of the complete
portfolio?
CAL
E (rc) = 19%
P S (y > 1) = 0.27
E (rp ) = 15%
rB = 9% S (y ≤ 1) = 0.36
rf = 7%
F
σp = 22% σc = 33% σ
Therefore the CAL is “kinked” at portfolio P. To the left of P, the investor lends at
7% and the slope of the CAL is 0.36. To the right of P, the investor borrows at
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4. Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation
• The CAL plots all feasible risk-return combinations available for
capital allocation. The investor must now choose one optimal
complete portfolio, C, from the set of feasible choices.
• This choice entails a trade-off between risk and return.
• Individual differences in risk aversion lead to different capital
allocation choices even when facing an identical investment
opportunity set.
• Investors with higher levels of risk aversion choose to hold a
lower proportion of their investment in the portfolio of risky
assets (i.e. a lower y value) and more in the risk-free asset.
• Investors with lower levels of risk aversion choose to hold a
higher proportion of their investment in the portfolio of risky
assets (i.e. a higher y value) and less in the risk-free asset.
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• Higher ICs correspond to higher levels of
utility. Thus, the investor attempts to find
the complete portfolio on the highest IC.
• The highest IC that is tangential to the CAL
(i.e. still touches the CAL) will yield the
E(r)
optimal complete portfolio (i.e. I2).
I1
I2
I3 CAL
P
E(rp)
C
E(rc)
rf
F
σc σp σ
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To determine the complete portfolio mathematically:
• Investors choose the allocation to the risky asset, y, that maximises
1
their utility function 𝑈𝑈 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟 − 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴2
2
• This results in the optimal position for risk-averse investors in the
risky asset, y*, as follows:
Returns and std dev MUST
𝐸𝐸 𝑟𝑟𝑝𝑝 − 𝑟𝑟𝑓𝑓 BE expressed as decimals
𝑦𝑦 ∗ = and not whole numbers in
𝐴𝐴𝜎𝜎𝑝𝑝2 this equation.
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• Example 4: If rf = 7%, E(rp) = 15% and σp = 22% and investors X and Y
have coefficients of risk aversion of 6 and 1 respectively, calculate the
E(rc), σc and the reward-to-risk ratio for each investor.
Note: returns and std dev
are expressed as decimals
and not as whole numbers
in this equation.
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Investor X is more risk
averse than investor Y
We can also present this example graphically
and therefore their
indifference curves are
steeper.
E(r) Investor Y CAL
E(rc) = 20.2%
Investor X
P
E(rp) = 15%
E(rc) = 9.24%
rf = 7%
F
**The reward-to-risk ratio is lower than under example 4 as the investor now
faces a higher borrowing rate (9% versus 7%).
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We can also present this example graphically:
E(r) CAL
Investor Y Slope = 0.36
rBf = 9%
rf = 7%
F
• The CAL is derived from the risk-free asset and a risky portfolio. If the
risky portfolio is the market portfolio (comprising all risky assets), then
it is referred to as the Capital Market Line (CML).
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