Research briefing
Humans
influence
mammal
populations
even inside
protected
areas
An analysis of millions of wildlife
photographs has revealed
that survival and colonization
probabilities of mammals in
protected areas are associated
with people and what they do
both inside and outside these
areas.
This is a summary of:
Semper-Pascal, A. et al. Occurrence dynam-
ics of mammals in protected tropical forests
respond to human presence and activities.
Nat. Ecol. Evol., https://doi.org/10.1038/
s41559-023-02060-6 (2023).
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Published online: xx xx xxxx
Nature Ecology & Evolution
The problem
Tropical forests are increasingly
affected by human activities such as
conversion, harvesting and hunting1,2.
Protected areas are now important
refuges for many species3. As a result,
increasing and expanding the cover-
age of protected areas has become a
global conservation priority (as agreed
at the UN Biodiversity Conference
(COP15) in December 2022). Yet, it is
unclear whether mammal populations
inside protected areas are safe. Previ-
ous research has largely focused on
intrinsic characteristics of protected
areas, and ignored human influences
from outside. Even processes that occur
far beyond the boundary of a protected
area can affect wildlife populations
within it and must therefore be taken
into account when assessing mam-
mal populations. We assessed how
anthropogenic stressors and processes
occurring at multiple spatial scales
(inside and outside the protected area)
influence the occurrence dynamics of
159 mammal species inside tropical
protected forests.
The solution
We used millions of wildlife photo-
graphs collected by the Tropical
Ecology Assessment and Monitoring
(TEAM) network4. TEAM consists of
researchers from different institutions
who collect data on tropical forests
and their wildlife using pre-agreed
methods. The data that we used came
from more than 1,000 sites spread
across 16 protected areas in the global
tropics (Neotropics, Afrotropics and
Indo-Malayan region). Importantly,
these data had been collected over mul-
tiple years, which enabled us to assess
whether a given site became colonized
by a species or whether the species was
lost (being absent or locally ‘extinct’ at a
site) between sampling years. Using sta-
tistical models, we determined the main
anthropogenic factors that relate to
colonization and survival (the opposite
of extinction) probabilities.
We found that inside tropical protected
areas, mammals are more likely to colo-
nize a site or become locally extinct when
human stressors at the local scale (inside
the protected area) and at the landscape
scale (inside and outside the protected
area) are lower. We additionally found
that not all species respond equally to
these stressors. For instance, special-
ist species (such as the white-bellied
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pangolin) that occupy only a small
number of habitat types were more likely
to colonize a site when forest cover at the
local scale was high and fragmentation at
the landscape scale was low (Fig. 1a). For
generalist species (such as the tayra) that
occupy several habitat types, we found
that the probability of the species surviv-
ing at a site varied depending on that
site’s distance from the protected area
border, and how many people lived in the
area. For these species, survival at a site
was higher near the protected area bor-
der when human population density was
low; however, when human population
density was high, the opposite occurred
(that is, survival was higher far from the
border) (Fig. 1b).
The implications
Our work has important implications
for the management of tropical pro-
tected areas. The results indicate that
protected areas should be combined
with wider measures aimed at decreasing
large-scale forest fragmentation beyond
the boundaries of the protected area. For
example, landscape connectivity could
be increased through habitat restoration.
Additionally, our findings suggest that
forest protection and restoration should
be especially emphasized to preserve
habitat specialists, and that conservation
measures such as enforcement of hunt-
ing regulations should be prioritized to
safeguard habitat generalists.
The fact that we found substan-
tial variation among species in their
response to anthropogenic stressors
highlights the importance of further
detailed species-level assessments to
inform effective conservation strate-
gies. The challenge is that many species
are elusive, rare and unstudied. We
therefore emphasize the importance of
continuing surveying these forests to
get more data on rare species, which will
enable us to draw robust conclusions on
the occurrence dynamics of mammals
and the factors driving the dynamics.
We have learned more about how
mammals respond to anthropogenic
stressors across space. A next step would
be to investigate their response across
time. For instance, whether mammals
are able to occur in sites that are influ-
enced by humans by avoiding the sites at
certain times.
Asunción Semper-Pascual1 & Douglas Sheil2
Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås,
1
Norway. 2Wageningen University and
Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Expert opinion References
“The authors used an impressive dataset influencing these patterns are static, they 1. Hansen, M. C. et al. High-resolution global
based on standardized camera trap surveys either use occurrence/abundance data maps of 21st-century forest cover change.
across the tropics carried out by the TEAM collected across several years and averaged Science 342, 850–853 (2013).
network. The main strength of this study out across this period, or they use one This paper reports deforestation rates
is the temporal component. Most studies single survey.” Ana Benítez-López, worldwide.
looking at occupancy or abundance National Museum of Natural Sciences 2. Benítez-López, A. et al. The impact of
patterns of vertebrates and factors (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain. hunting on tropical mammal and bird
populations. Science 356, 180–183 (2017).
This meta-analysis reports the effects of
hunting on tropical mammals.
3. Beaudrot, L. et al. Standardized assessment
Figure of biodiversity trends in tropical forest
protected areas: the end is not in sight.
PLoS Biol. 14, e1002357 (2016).
This paper reports occupancy trends of
a mammals inside tropical protected areas.
Low fragmentation High fragmentation
1.00 4. Rovero, F. & Ahumada, J. The Tropical
Colonization probability

Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring

0.75
(TEAM) network: an early warning system
0.50 for tropical rain forests. Sci. Total Environ.
574, 914–923 (2017).
0.25 An article introducing the TEAM data.

0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100
Percentage of forest

b
Low human population High human population
1.00
Survival probability

0.75

0.50

0.25

0
−4 −2 0 −4 −2 0
Distance to protected area border

Fig. 1 | Mean predicted colonization probability for specialists and generalists in relation to
habitat-related and human pressure-related covariates. a, Colonization probability in relation to
percentage of forest fragmentation. b, Survival probability in relation to distance to the protected area
edge and human population density. Shaded areas indicate 95% Bayesian credible intervals. © 2023,
Semper-Pascual, A. et al.

Behind the paper From the editor

Bwindi in Africa, one of the 16 protected what we’d find. We saw the gorillas, “Protected areas are a conservation
areas included in this study, is a difficult pangolins, monkeys, jackals and duikers. cornerstone, but understanding their
environment to work in; it is called ‘the And there were surprises too. For example, effectiveness is difficult. We were impressed
Impenetrable Forest’ with good reason. while the mysterious African golden cat by this paper’s detail, assessing effects on
We put a lot of effort into training in Bwindi is seldom seen, our first surveys returned human stressors both close to the edge
so that we could reliably gather consistent over 700 images that revealed a healthy of a protected area and at its core, and
high-quality data in this challenging population with various colourings. We even teasing apart effects on different species
landscape. The resulting images were saw one carrying prey. There were amusing from different stressors. Such information
worth it. Unlike much research data, the images too, such as the closeups of a is useful for protected area planning and
raw results are engaging and exciting. The bemused chimpanzee provided by a camera management, which is key to expansion
images let us see animals and behaviours that had deep teeth marks on it — the chimp protected areas under new global
that we would seldom see otherwise. Each had been biting on it to see what it might conservation frameworks.” Editorial Team,
time a camera was retrieved we wondered find inside. D.S. Nature Ecology & Evolution.

Nature Ecology & Evolution