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Lecture 1 Moral Hazard - Ver2
Lecture 1 Moral Hazard - Ver2
I Shota Ichihashi
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Introduction
Description:
I This course is the second half of the first-year PhD micro sequence.
I ECON 811 is prerequisite.
Topics (tentative):
1. Moral hazard and the principal-agent theory
2. Monopoly screening and its applications
3. Adverse selection and competitive screening
4. Signaling
5. Market design and matching
6. General equilibrium
7. General equilibrium under uncertainty
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A bit more on logistics
I Until February 28, we use Zoom (both for class and office hour).
I We use lecture slides and notes, uploaded on onQ.
I No required text books, but MWG is useful (syllabus for detail).
I Tentative plan for grading:
5 homeworks (25-30%), midterm (30%), final (40-45%).
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Lecture 1: Moral Hazard
ECON 813
Shota Ichihashi
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Principal-Agent Models
Principal-agent models: principal designs a mechanism/contract for
agent(s) to participate in. Ask what contracts are optimal.
1. Employment contract: A firm offers an output-contingent wage. After
the worker signs a contract, they exert effort and get paid.
2. Insurance contract: A car insurance company offers an insurance
contract, which specifies payments conditional on a normal event and
on an accident (i.e., premium and deductible). After a person signs a
contract, they decide how carefully to drive.
3. Selling products: An smartphone company designs a menu of
price-quality pairs to supply. The buyer chooses an item from the
menu, pays the price, and gets the phone.
The agent often has private information
(really? At least we assume so in this class)
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Moral Hazard & Adverse Selection
Old paradigm: MH = hidden action, AS = hidden info
Moral hazard: Agent has relevant private info that arises after contracting
(symmetric info at the time of contracting)
I A production worker has private info about whether they have shirked
by working slowly or failing to care for equipment (“hidden action”)
I A salesperson gain private information about customer demands and
competitive offering that affect his sales (“hidden information”)
I Learn when the principal can/can’t attain the first-best even when
action is unobservable.
I Study several variations that violate the conditions for the first-best
(analyze the principal’s second best contract).
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A Simple Model
A principal and an agent (e.g., a firm and a worker).
I The principal offers a contract, w(·). A contract w(·) maps a realized
output x ∈ R to compensation w(x).
I The agent decides whether to sign the contract; if refuses, he earns
an outside option of u ∈ R.
I If signed, the agent privately chooses an effort level e ∈ E, where E is
the set of possible effort levels.
I The output x = g(e) + ε is realized, where g : E → R
(the output depends also on noise ε).
I The output is observed, and the agent receives w(x).
Payoffs are
I The agent: u(w(x), e)
I The principal: x − w(x) (risk neutral)
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The First-Best Soultion
subject to
(PC) E [u (w(g(e) + ε), e)] ≥ u.
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The First-Best Solution
Claim
At the first-best solution, the agent is paid a fixed wage, w(π) = w for all
possible output π = g(e) + ε. Given e, the optimal w solves u(w, e) = u.
Proof 1.
I Otherwise, the principal could pay the agent its certainty equivalent
wage: wC such that u(wC , e) = E [u (w(g(e) + ε), e)]
I wC ≤ E[w(g(e) + ε)] is less than the expected wage and increases
the principal’s payoff.
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The First-Best Solution
The first-best solution under the risk-averse agent pays a constant wage.
Proof 2. For simplicity, suppose there are finitely many possible outputs
π1 , . . . , πn , and let pj (e) denote the probability of output πj given effort e.
Principal’s first-best problem: choose w1 , . . . , wn , pay wj for output πj
The Lagrangian for the principals’ problem is
n
X n
X
pj (e)(πj − wj ) + λ [pj (e)u (wj , e) − u] .
j=1 j=1
∂Lagrangian ∂u
= −pj (e) + λpj (e) =0
∂wj ∂wj
∂u ∗ 1
⇒ (wj , e) = .
∂wj λ
(PC) E [w(g(e) + ε) − e] ≥ u.
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Solution to Risk-Neutral Case: “Sell the Firm”
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Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
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Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
u Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
u Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Remark: First-Best Problem and Efficient Contracts
I We set up the first-best problem as the principals’ profit maximization.
I We can interpret it as the problem of finding efficient contracts.
(no other contracts can improve utilities of P and A simultaneously.)
I Why? Efficient contracts maximize the principal’s utility by fixing
(minimum) utility u of the agent.
Principal’s
utilty
u0 u Agent’s utility 14 / 54
Second-Best Analysis
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Limited Liability
I “Selling the firm”: the agent may pay a large penalty to the principal
when π takes a negative value.
I The principal cannot use such a contract if the agent is protected by
limited liability.
I We study the second-best contract under limited liability in a simple
setting.
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Limited Liability: Formulation
Setting:
I Two outputs: “success” which worth π or “failure” which worth 0 to the
principal.
I For any e ≥ 0, the probability of success is g(e) ∈ [0, 1), and the
effort cost is e.
I g is smooth, increasing, and strictly concave and g(0) = 0.
I We can write any compensation function w(·) as (w1 , w0 ), i.e., w1 is
the payment given success, and w0 is the payment given failure.
I The limited liability: w0 , w1 ≥ 0.
The agent’s problem: maxe≥0 {g(e)w1 + (1 − g(e))w0 − e}
Taking the FOC as the IC constraint, we can write the principal’s problem
as:
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Low u or High e
I If u = 0 , we may find that (LL) is binding and (PC) is not binding.
1
I w0 = 0 and w1 = g0 (e)
I The agent’s rent (premium of utility above the minimum level required)
g(e)
Rent(e) = g(e)w1 − e = g0 (e) −e
I The optimal choice of e solves
1
maxe πg(e) − e − Rent(e) = maxe g(e) π − g0 (e) .
g(e)
e
Rent(e)
I Rent(e) is increasing in e
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Reduced Optimal e
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Recap
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Analytical Approach to Solve the Principal’s Problem
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Second-Best Analysis
1. Limited liability
2. Risk-aversion
3. Multi-tasking
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Risk-Averse Agent Revisited
I n ≥ 2 possible outcomes, 1, . . . , n.
I K effort levels, i.e., E = {e1 , . . . , eK }.
I Effort e ∈ E determines p(e) = (p1 (e), . . . , pn (e)), where
pi (e) = Pr(outcome i).
I The value of output i to the principal is πi .
Pn
I The expected value of the output π(e) := i=1 pi (e)πi .
I A contract: (e, w1 , . . . , wn ), where wi is the payment given outcome i.
I The agent’s payoff is u(w, e) = u(w) − c(e), where u is smooth and
strictly concave in w.
In the first best (observable e), the optimal contract entails fixed payment.
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Risk-Averse Agent: The Principal’s Problem
n
X
max π(e) − pi (e)wi
e,w1 ,...,wn
i=1
subject to
n
X n
X
(IC) − c(e) + pi (e)u(wi ) ≥ −c(ek ) + pi (ek )u(wi ), k = 1, . . . , K
i=1 i=1
Xn
(PC) − c(e) + pi (e)u(wi ) ≥ 0 (we set u = 0).
i=1
The first step to solve the problem is derive the cost-minimizing way of
inducing effort level e.
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The Principal’s Cost-Minimization Problem
What is the cost-minimizing way of inducing effort level e? The principal’s
cost-minimization problem is
n
X
min pi (e)wi
w1 ,...,wn
i=1
n
X n
X
s.t. (IC) − c(e) + pi (e)u(wi ) ≥ −c(ek ) + pi (ek )u(wi ), k = 1, . . . , K
i=1 i=1
Xn
(PC) − c(e) + pi (e)u(wi ) ≥ 0.
i=1
The Lagrangian is
n K
" n
#
X X X
L=− pi (e)wi + λk c(ek ) − c(e) + [pi (e) − pi (ek )]u(wi )
i=1 k=1 i=1
" n
#
X
+ µ −c(e) + pi (e)u(wi ) .
i=1 26 / 54
The Principal’s Cost-Minimization Problem
n K
" n
# " n
#
X X X X
L=− pi (e)wi + λk c(ek ) − c(e) + [pi (e) − pi (ek )]u(wi ) + µ −c(e) + pi (e)u(wi )
i=1 k=1 i=1 i=1
K
∂L X
λk (pi (e) − pi (ek ))u0 (wi ) + µpi (e)u0 (wi ) = 0, (1)
= −pi (e) +
∂wi
k=1
which implies
K PK
1 k=1 λk pi (ek )
X
= µ + λk − . (2)
u0 (wi ) pi (e)
k=1
First-best
I Optimal contract: payment is independent of output
I Minimize expected payment given the agent’s risk aversion
Second-best (unobservable e)
I Optimal contract: payment may depend on output
I Otherwise, the principal can only induce the effort that minimizes the
agent’s cost
I Trade-off between risk and incentive: To make agent work hard,
payment should depend on output But doing so is costly when agent
is risk-averse
How does the principal exactly trades-off risk and incentive?
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A Statistical Interpretation
K PK
1 X
k=1 λk pi (ek )
= µ + λk − . (3)
u0 (wi ) pi (e)
k=1
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Second-Best Analysis
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Multi-Tasking
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Multi-Tasking: Key Idea
Key Idea:
I Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991): Incentivizing an effort for one task
that is easy to measure distorts the effort level of another task that is
hard to measure.
I E.g., paying a teacher according to the test scores of students may be
a bad idea, because the teacher would then lower the effort to teach
students communication skills.
Ingredients:
I The agent’s effort devoted to multiple tasks are substitutes:
Increasing effort on one task make it harder to do so on other tasks.
I The principal cares about outputs from multiple tasks, not just one.
I Some types of performance are harder to measure than others.
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Multi-Tasking: A Simple Model
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Multi-Tasking: A Simple Model
max π1 e1 + π2 e2 − w
w,e1 ,e2
subject to
(IC) e2 ∈ arg min c(e1 , e)
e
(PC) w − c(e1 , e2 ) ≥ 0.
max π1 e1 + π2 e2 − c(e1 , e2 )
e1 ,e2
⇐⇒ max max π1 e1 + π2 e2 − c(e1 , e2 )
e1 e2
⇐⇒ max π1 e1 + π2 eFB FB
2 (e1 ) − c(e1 , e2 (e1 )). (5)
e1
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Multi-Tasking
The derivative of the principal’s second-best profit
with respect to e1 is
deA2
π1 − c1 + (π2 − c2 ) (e1 )
de1
∂c
where ci = ∂e . The derivative of (5) with respect to e1 is
i
π 1 − c1 . (7)
de∗
Suppose (π2 − c2 ) de2 (e1 ) < 0, e.g., the principal highly values e2
1
de∗
(π2 > c2 ) but promoting a high e1 could reduce e2 ( de2 (e1 ) < 0).
1
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Summary
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(Important) Appendix
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Reminder: Reduced Optimal e Under Limited Liability
I Rent(e) is increasing in e
I We want to show that eFB ≥ eSB
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Monotone Comparative Statics (MCS)
Definition
A function f : R × R → R has increasing differences in (x, θ) if,
whenever xH ≥ xL and θ H ≥ θ L , we have
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Increasing Differences
Theorem
If f is twice continuously differentiable, then f has increasing differences if
and only if
∂ 2 f (x, θ)
≥ 0, ∀x ∈ X, ∀θ ∈ Θ.
∂x∂θ
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Strong Set Order
We want a formal way to compare two sets, such as maxx f (x, θ H ) and
maxx f (x, θL )
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Strong Set Order
Definition
A set A ⊂ R is greater than a set B ⊂ R in the strong set order if, for any
a ∈ A and b ∈ B,
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Result
Theorem
For each θ ∈ Θ, define X ∗ (θ) := arg maxx∈X f (x, θ). If f has increasing
differences in (x, θ), then X ∗ (θ) is non-decreasing in the strong set order,
i.e., for any θ H and θ L , X ∗ (θ H ) is greater than X ∗ (θ L ) in the strong set
order.
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Going Back to: Reduced Optimal e
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MCS with n Choice Variables and m Parameters
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Meet and Join
Relevant notion of min and max are component-wise min and max, also
called meet and join:
Definition
A set A ⊂ Rn is greater than a set B ⊂ Rn in the strong set order if, for
any a ∈ A and b ∈ B,
a ∨ b ∈ A, and
a ∧ b ∈ B.
Prof. Alvin Roth at Stanford: “meet at the intersection, join the union.”
It more sense when we define lattice using ∪ and ∩ (but not in this course)
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Increasing Differences
Called supermodularity of f in x.
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Supermodularity
Definition
A function f : X × Θ → R is supermodular in x if, for all x, y ∈ X and
θ ∈ Θ, we have
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Supermodularity
Theorem
If function f : Rn × Rm → R is twice continuously differentiable, then f has
increasing differences iff
∂ 2 f (x, θ)
≥ 0, ∀x ∈ X, ∀θ ∈ Θ, i ∈ {1, . . . , n} , j ∈ {1, . . . , m} ,
∂xi ∂θj
∂ 2 f (x, θ)
≥ 0, ∀x ∈ X, ∀θ ∈ Θ, i 6= j ∈ {1, . . . , n} .
∂xi ∂xj
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Topkis’ Theorem
Theorem
If X ⊂ Rn is a lattice, Θ ⊂ Rm , and f : X × Θ → R has increasing
differences in (x, θ) and is supermodular in x, then
X ∗ (θ) = maxx∈X f (x, θ) is increasing in the strong set order.
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