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Research Project Assignment
Research Project Assignment
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Content
I. Introduction
II. Definition of risk
III. Types of risk
▪ Credit risk
▪ Market risk
▪ Operational risk
IV. How risks are determined
V. What is risk management
VI. Building-Block Approaches to Risk Management.
VII. The go for in investment that leads to uncertainties
▪ The Impact of Uncertainty on Investing
▪ The Micro and Macro Risks variable
▪ The role, effect and impact of Micro Risks
VIII. Consequences of inaction if these variables are not
maintained.
▪ The Relevance: A Need for Enterprise Risk Management
IX. Consequences of inaction if these variables are not
maintained
X. Conclusion
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Introduction
The origin, history and background of the selected term “Risk” comes
from vary trace but points to game, which was usually coin tossing
puzzle rules but later modified the term as risk.
The understanding of risk management and mitigation in IFM
comprises of several important factors that identifies the
uncertainties in business transactions. Firstly, one need to understand
the various types of risk that exist in the world of investment and their
measures of minimization. In this research review, risk defines how
successful an investment will be or how effective government or
private investment entities matches their capital to suit their
mitigation and meet their expected result.
If risks are not involved with financial market there will be no
successful or investment activities. In investment there exist risk for it
cannot be detached, with the mitigating attributes, companies,
governments and individual investors seek to apply to meet market
expectations. As this paper further explain and give the forces
against market and the problem resolving components you will
realize that market is the place of success.
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Firstly, what is risk?
Risk is when the probability of an actual result appears differently from the expect
results its risk. From the capital asset pricing point of view, it’s the volatility of returns.
Before going further there are several types of risk which are essential to review to
have the base of this study. For every healthy economy the Banking industry is the
backbone which is directly related to the financial health of its banks.
So, they provide a vast variety of services to both retail sector and also the
corporate sector. Due to the vast variety of services provided by the banking
industry, there are a myriad of risks involved in the banking industry.
It’s important to reduce these risks in order to maintain the health of the banks
and essentially, the health of the economy.
A. Credit risk - is the possibility of a lost which result from a borrower’s failure
to repay funds been borrowed and its contractual terms, that also includes
the delays in payment of the funds as well.
Credit defaults have never changed it has always been one of the biggest or
largest concerns in the financial industry as is evident by the catastrophic 2007-08
financial crisis which began due to the inherent credit risk in the financial sector.
The impact of credit risk on financial institutions are determined by the structure
of the institution balance sheet, in particular the capital base of every institution
signifies the extent to which losses can be sustained and insolvency can be
avoided in the case of loan defaults higher than what is accounted for in the
balance sheet.
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What are the types of Credit risk?
➢ Counterparty Credit Risk: when we say counterparty credit risk it’s the
coverages of default risk as well as credit migration risk of the counterparty
reflected in mark-to-market losses on the expected counterparty risk.
Counterparty risk may derive from the context of over the counter (OTC)
derivatives and Securities Financing Transactions.
➢ Credit Concentration Risk: The fact that concentration of credit risk is the
risk at distribution of exposures to a few customers and trading partners
where in potential default by a relatively small group of counterparties or
large individual counterparties is driven by a common underlying cause.
➢ Country Risk: Country risk refers to potential losses that may derive from an
economic, political event that occurs in a specified or particular country,
where the event is controlled by that country, that is by its government, and
not the credit grantor or investor.
➢ Interest Rate Risk: this risk refers to the possibility that market interest rates
might increase, obliging a bank to pay higher interest to their depositors,
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while the interest received from borrowers remains unchanged for loans
with interest rates that the bank cannot alter immediately.
➢ Commodity Risk: refers to the risk associated with the values of the
commodity prices and the associated volatility.
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➢ Clients, Products, and Business Practice:
includes market
manipulation, antitrust, improper trade, product defects, fiduciary
breaches, account churning etc.
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Other methods that give awareness of risks (Module 1 / Introduction Financial Risk Management
Edinburgh Business School 1/37) include standard analytic methods such as fault
tracing, the use of experts (for instance Delphi forecasting), scenario building (via
an investigation of Murphy’s law – that is, what can go wrong will go wrong), that
is brainstorming, and other similar approaches used to identify the factors in a
particular industry, economic environment or within the firm. The careful
examination of accidents that happen to others is also useful in creating
awareness. Being aware of risks is an ongoing discovery exercise that needs to be
repeated at frequent intervals to capture changed conditions. As human beings,
we also have the problem that we may not either perceive the risk or be able to
assess its significance due to our interpreting or understanding of data through
our own ‘mind viewer’, so in addition, different financial markets have varying
degrees of efficiency, market transparency and development.
➢ Risks that are unknown and unmeasurable (that is, they have not
manifested themselves or have not been perceived). An example would
be the global interlinkages that affected banks and other financial
institutions in the wake of the collapse of the US housing market 2007-2008.
The contagion effect from the global holding of various kinds of collateral
debt obligations (CDOs) were unexpected, especially since CDOs were
supposed to diversify risk rather than enhance it. While few commentators
had questioned the suitability of CDOs as financial instruments, no one had
understood the systemic risk that the wide dissemination of these
instruments had created. Banks in virtually every single major country were
adversely affected by the collapse in the CDO market and in a number of
countries needed government support, feared that some banks were
holding large quantities of CDOs and other such “toxic assets” caused a
virtual collapse of the world financial system in 2008, and only intervention
by governments, regulators and central banks prevented the system from
totally failing.
➢ Risks that are known but still unmeasurable, (where even though the
risk is known, but there are insufficient data on which to base an evaluation
of the likely consequences or quantify the exposure). Taking the Greek crisis
that started in the late 2009 as a study or scenario base situation, when the
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government of Greece announced that they were far from having a
manageable budget deficit as previously forecasted 3.7 percent of her
GDP, which actually was an unsustainable 12.7 percent. Months later, May
2010, the country was given a bailout by the European Union and the
International Monetary Fund, because of the risk of a country defaulting is
known, which makes it hard to measure, while there were relatively few
countries and few incidences of default. In addition, there were individual
factors that made each country’s case unique. For instance, Ireland and
Portugal were also given European Union assistance later on also because
of their individual factor’s uniqueness. There were common factors that
affect all three countries, but, equally, the causes of their need for bailouts
to prevent default were also country specific.
➢ Risks that are both known and measurable. (In such cases, there are
many observations on which to build a statistical model in order to predict
future behaviors.) This is the situation with which risk management typically
has to deal, when organizations seek to measure their exposure to the
principal financial risk factors. As discussed earlier, we have historical data
on currency exchange rates, commodity prices and interest rates that
show how these have fluctuated considerably over time.
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and fast rule governing any particular course of action. Indeed, one aspect of risk
measurement involves determining the organization’s own risk-taking approach.
Risk adjustment: this involves changing the nature of the risk from an undesirable
level to an acceptable one. There are three existing different approaches
include;
Elements of risk pooling and risk transfer, this approach involves insurance,
where the risk can be transferred to another party better able to accept the risk.
Many kinds of standard risk can be insured at a price (which is known as a
premium). The problem is that, as risk to be insured becomes more specific to a
particular organization, the insurers have the same problem as the insured, they
will have the same difficulty in quantifying the risk, and the price of such insurance
will rise to reflect this uncertainty.
The second approach uses hedging, this is a principle of offsetting one risk
with an opposite position in the same or similar risk, in this approach if the hedge
works, the two risks should be self-cancelling. A decision can be made about how
much of the total risk is to be hedged. Many organizations undertake two different
kinds of hedging, which are namely and discussed;
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financial engineering. The advantageous component of these specialized
instruments is that, they are relatively at a low cost but can be rapidly
adjusted to take account of changing economic circumstances.
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steps, show the approaches, in the formulation and execution of the risk
management strategy which is deemed to be simultaneously taking place at
different levels within the firm, and within different functions and business units,
over time.
Exposure’s identification
Profile of business risks
Classification of exposures
Materiality ranking
E B
D C
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In this chart suggest how strategy risk management is in every given institution, but
most especially in the financial industry. The identification of exposures (A) leads
to the formulation of an appropriate managerial response, that is policies
formulation or framework for curtailing risk purposes.
(B) At This level the implementation at the business unit and functional levels, with
the appropriate set of controls and evaluation criteria are rollout.
(C) Determines the policy’s effectiveness
(D). The results of the implementation stage are then reviewed in the light of the
firm’s overall corporate performance
(E) Changes in strategic objectives, and the changing business environment,
which in turn restarts the evaluation process, leading to changes in policy (A). This
process is continuous as in our decision approach, the risks are kept under
constant review. It is because the nature of firm changes over time, as also the
risks it faces. The risk management process is, therefore, a continual adjustment of
the firm’s exposures in the light of changing conditions, the firm’s own capacity
to operate its hedging and insurance programmed, and the cost–benefit trade-
offs involved.
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(SME). The common approach in most banks is to delegate decisions about the
right level of sensitivity to interest rates and choices of funding to an Asset Liability
Management Committee (ALMAC). Given this objectives of a particular entity,
senior management is given decision to what level to delegate responsibility.
Noticeably there are three distinct approaches that can be adopted in modelling
and measuring risk, they include and being discussed below;
They can be termed;
An Equity–value approach, An Asset–liability approach and, Transactional or cash flow
approach.
With Maturity- and funding gap methods, it breaks up future assets and
liabilities into discrete time intervals (for example, by quarter years), and the
mismatch between receipts and payments are used to determine the net
amount of risk in any single period. This method relatives simply to apply
often easier for firms to collect information on their assets and liabilities,
which only change relatively slowly over period, than to have accurate
forecasts of their future transactions or cash flows.
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safer investments and increasing government deficits. For which the rising
uncertainty confuse even the well-informed investor.
There is always a level of risk and uncertainty level is involved always when
investing, that is when increased in times of wars, recessions, pandemics, and
other negative occurrences. When hard times emerge, most investors move their
funds out of equities to safer assets, such as precious metals, government bonds,
and money-market instruments.
This movement of investor capital from equities to safer assets causes
depreciation in the stock market.
Uncertainty normally impacts any given situation, least to say the economy on
both the micro and macro level: On the micro level it focuses on companies and
individuals, while on the macro level it focuses on the overall economy, like global
oil prices and the flight of capital.
Being well informed and adjusting your investment strategy as events change
over time will allow you to invest wisely during uncertain times.
Any time you invest or engage your fund at risk in an attempt to profit, there is an
inherent level of uncertainty. So, when there exist new threats such as war or
recession arise, the level of uncertainty increases significantly as companies can
no longer accurately predict their future earnings. As a result, there is an increase
in institutional investors reduction on holdings in stocks considered unsafe and
move the funds to other asset classes like mentioned in previous paragraph,
precious metals, government bonds, and money-market instruments.
Uncertainty is the inability to forecast future events. The prediction of people to
know the extent of a possible recession, the beginning and end date, the costing
effect, or what companies will be able to make it through unharmed. Most
companies normally predict sales and production trends for the investing public
to follow assuming normal market conditions, but increasingly and interestingly
uncertainty levels can make these numbers significantly inaccurate.
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➢ The Micro and Macro Risks variable
Uncertainty itself can affect the economy on both the micro and macro levels.
Uncertainty on a micro-level center around the effect on individual companies
within an economy faced with the threat of war or recession, while uncertainty
on a macro-level tends to look more at the economy as a whole.
This uncertainty may force some companies in certain sectors to redundant some
of their employees to combat the impacts of lower sales. The level of uncertainty
that surrounds a company's sales also extends into the stock market.
Consequently, stock prices of companies that produce non-essential goods may
sometimes experience sell-off when levels of uncertainty increase.
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threat are bought instead. An average investor probably would not get involve,
but larger institutional investors and currency futures traders would. These actions
translate into a devaluation of exchange rates.
The bottom line is, regardless of which strategy you decide to apply (if any), you
can't go wrong over the long term by keeping yourself well-informed and getting
into a position to take advantage of prices when things reverse. Being able to
keep on top of news and adjust your portfolio accordingly will help you to invest
wisely during uncertain times.
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Reference; Dr Peter Moles MA, MBA, PhD, Sources of Financial Risk and Risk Assessment, Edinburgh
business school, Heriot-Watt University.
The effect strategies that come as an appropriate risk mitigation involves firstly
identifying potential risks to a project like team turnover, product failure or scope
creep and then planning for the risk by implementing strategies to help lessen or
halt the risk.
The below strategies can be used in risk mitigation planning and monitoring.
In this strategy commonly used for identifying and understanding the risks that
can affect an investment output, and the purpose of this strategy helps bring
these risks to the business’ attention so everyone working in an investment
company has a shared understanding of the risks and consequences involved.
The following example shows how the acceptance strategy can be
implemented for commonly-identified risks.
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➢ Risks impacting cost
The accept strategy can be used to identify risks impacting cost. For example,
investors might implement the accept strategy to identify risks to the company
budget and make plans to lower the risk of going over budget, so that all team
members are aware of the risk and possible consequences.
This accepts strategy could help identify possible risks that could impact
scheduling, such as keeping the investment on track to meet deadlines.
These types of risks can involve performance issues like team productivity or
product performance (such as software or manufactured goods) and can be
identified and accepted as part of project planning so all members are aware
of potential performance risks.
B. Avoidance of risk
The avoidance strategy presents the accepted and assumed risks and
consequences of an investment and presents opportunities for avoiding those
accepted risks. Some methods of implementing the avoidance strategy are to
plan for risk and then to take steps to avoid it. For example, to mitigate risk on
new product production, a project team may decide to implement product
testing to avoid the risk of product failure before final production is approved.
➢ Risk to performance
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➢ Risk to schedule
The avoidance strategy can help the project team plan ways to avoid schedule
conflicts, for instance, by creating a managed schedule that illustrates specific
time allowances for planning, design, testing and retesting and making changes
as necessary. Non-working times could also be planned, so that risks to time
management can be avoided.
➢ Risk to cost
C. Controlling risk
Team members may also implement a control strategy when mitigating risks to a
project. This strategy works by taking into account risks identified and accepted
and then taking actions to reduce or eliminate the impacts of these risks. The
following examples highlight how control methods can be implemented for risk
mitigation.
A project team might implement control methods that can detect possible
issues with the project budget. For instance, controls for risk mitigation might
include a focus on management, the decision-making process or finding flaws
in the funding for the project before issues can arise. This can also give a project
team insight into how funds are being delegated, and if there is a risk of going
over budget, the team can identify this before it happens and take measures to
control it such as reducing spending or eliminating a resource that could prove
too costly for the project.
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➢ Controlling risk to schedule
D. Transference of risk
When risks are identified and taken into account, mitigating the consequences
through transference can be a viable strategy. The transference strategy works
by transferring the strain of the risk and consequences of another party. This can
present its own drawbacks, however, and when an organization implements this
risk mitigation strategy, it should be in a way that is acceptable to all parties
involved. The following example shows how and when transference strategies
are used for risk mitigation.
If, for instance, a production team has built a new product, but the result
presents defects. The defects may not be directly caused by issues in
production, but rather, caused by issues with materials purchased from an
outside vendor.
The product company may choose to assume the consequences and move
forward with resolution strategies—like product recall—or the company may
transfer the consequences to the outside vendor responsible for providing the
product materials by requiring the vendor to cover the costs associated with the
product defects.
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➢ Transference for scheduling
Sometimes a project takes longer to complete, and while this is a risk itself,
transference strategies can be used to shift the burden of being behind
schedule to the team members responsible for time management, rather than
the company as a whole. With the consequences transferred to the team
members responsible for scheduling, the production team, design team or
others can focus on completing the rest of their tasks.
Monitoring projects for risks and consequences involves watching for and
identifying any changes that can affect the impact of the risk. Production teams
might use this strategy as part of a standard project review plan. Cost,
scheduling and performance or productivity are all aspects of a project that
can be monitored for risks that may come up during completion of a project.
The following example illustrates ways to monitor and evaluate risk and
consequences that can impact a project’s completion.
➢ Monitoring Cost
A finance team or budget committee can evaluate and monitor risks to cost by
creating a reporting routine to outline each expenditure of the company. This
strategy works by allowing teams to continuously assess the budget and change
any cost plans accordingly.
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➢ Monitoring schedule
➢ Monitoring performance
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operational, hazardous, and compliance risks, spanning through the
organization. Many of such risks
have significant impact on the profitability, effectiveness, and reputation of
business enterprises.
Mainly in the 21st century, there are several checkpoints that have considerably
driven the need for enterprise in risk management, which are referred in todays
as drivers of ERM, which includes increase in the following;
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Reference; Thomas A. Stewart, (2000) cited in Thomas L. Barton, et al (2002) Making Enterprise Risk
Management Pay off. Dan Borge cited in Vedpuriswar A V (2006) Enterprise Risk Management. Industry
Experience (Peter Drucker cited in Vedpuriswar, 2006), Vedpuriswar A V (2006) Enterprise Risk
Management: Industry Experience 12 Monahan, G. (2008)
Conclusion
In conclusion risk management and mitigation is key in the framework of IFM. It’s
interested to know that the application of risk measures helps companies or
individual investors to navigate and explore the world of business successfully.
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