How Positive Feedbacks Amplify Climate Change and Make It

Worse

It has for a while been established that human emissions are not the sole contributor to
climate change. There are other mechanisms which could amplify the effects of man-made
warming. It is important to understand how humans contribute to climate change first – the
very basic science behind climate change is that we burn fossil fuels to meet our demands,
which in turn emit Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) like Carbon Dioxide and Methane. These GHGs
trap the solar radiations in the Earth’s atmosphere – disrupting our climate systems.
The wider cascading impacts of climate change result in additional climate change – and
these are called Positive Feedbacks or Amplifying Feedbacks. A positive feedback loop is the
equivalent of a vicious circle – it accelerates the rise of temperature. As the Earth’s
temperature rises, the positive feedback in the Earth’s system results in additional warming.
Although these do not feature prominently in our climate change discourse, positive
feedbacks could make matters worse as most scientists and climate models have predicted.
Our climate system has a tipping point, each feedback system has its own tipping point. The
risk involved with these self-reinforcing feedbacks could drive further warming – even if
humans stop emitting greenhouse gases. Some scientists have also suggested that human-
induced warming could trigger the positive feedbacks in our Earth system, which could push
us closer to a point of no return or Hothouse conditions. With these conditions stablising at
4°C to 5°C higher than pre-industrial levels, the threats posed by them could make much of
the Earth inhabitable and lead to several other crises.
It becomes imperative to include and shed light on what these amplifying feedbacks are and
how they could potentially exacerbate our climate change problem in our discourse on
climate change to collectively curate a proper response against these self-reinforcing
feedbacks and our climate change problem. It is crucial to keep in memory that: Climate
Change results in additional Climate Change!
The Albedo Effect Feedback

Albedo expresses the ability of surfaces to reflect the solar radiations (sunrays). Light or
white-coloured surfaces reflect way more sunrays back into the atmosphere. Dark surfaces
absorb the sunrays. Ice and snow reflect a large part of the sunrays which otherwise would
have been absorbed by the oceans – causing the Earth’s surface to heat up. But the melting
of ice and snow leaves behind dark land which now absorbs solar radiation, adding to the
warming.
A study published in The Cryosphere suggests that the global ice loss has increased rapidly
over the past two decades. It also shows that the Earth is now losing 1.2 trillion tons of ice
each year. We are losing not just a crucial reflector of solar radiations, but this loss also
translates indirectly into rising sea levels which might spell disaster for millions living along
the coasts.

Uncondensed Water Vapour Feedback

Water vapour is the Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas – believed to be more
dangerous than CO2. Humans do not directly emit water vapour, but with the warming of
the Earth, evaporation increases which raises humidity which in turn thickens Earth’s
thermal blanket – increasing the Earth’s temperature. Scientists believe that the heat-
amplifying effect of water vapour is potent enough to double the climate warming caused
by increased levels of CO2. Even worse, the water vapour feedback can amplify the warming
effect of other GHGs. Uncondensed water vapour is a major player in climate change.

Risks to Carbon Sinks

Much of the carbon emitted is re-abosrbed by forests, phytoplanktons and oceans and these
are also known as carbon sinks. But as the Earth gets warmer, the carbon uptake capacity of
these sinks weakens. Land-based sinks become instable with heating – as the plants become
less effective at taking in CO2 and the microorganisms get more effective at putting it out.
With inconsistent of lesser rain, forests dry out which makes them vulnerable to forest fires.
Oceans are the most important carbon sink, absorbing a quarter of all atmospheric carbon
but rising ocean temperatures are dampening its ability to absorb atmospheric CO 2, a paper
published in the Nature Geoscience has confirmed. With rising ocean temperatures, it
becomes harder for the water to contain CO2 and the positive feedback loop takes hold
resulting in – increased atmospheric and ocean temperatures, which in turn results in the
weakening of the ocean’s grip over atmospheric CO2 eventually leading to further warming.

Melting of Permafrost

By far the gravest of all positive feedbacks, the melting of the permafrost, which accounts
for almost 24% of the surface of land masses in the northern hemisphere, can trigger an
unprecedented environmental crisis. The permafrost also accounts for nearly half of the
organic CO2 that’s trapped in the planet’s soil. Permafrost thawing (melting) has not only
become a pervasive threat that touches life in all corners of the Arctic, but its hazardous
impacts extend beyond the region. The thawing of the permafrost releases massive
amounts of methane directly into the atmosphere, which has more than 80 times the
warming power of CO2 and a longer lasting impact. With the permafrost temperatures
increasing at a much faster rate than the temperature of the air in the Arctic,
unprecedented amounts of carbon is believed to be released in the atmosphere. According
to a study published in Nature Climate Change, the region is emitting more carbon than it is
absorbing and by 2100, winter carbon dioxide emissions from the Arctic could increase by a
whopping 41% under a worst-case scenario. If the trend continues, the vast carbon
reservoirs into the atmosphere will be released into the atmosphere expediting the climate
crisis at a baffling speed.

On the verge of becoming a Hothouse?

A report published in the American Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

suggests that human-induced warming 2°C above pre-industrial levels may trigger other
Earth systems, known as Positive Feedbacks, that could drive further warming to a point of
no return or Hothouse conditions. The Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
report also suggests that the hothouse temperatures could stabilise 4°C to 5°C higher than
pre-industrial levels. The interactions between various positive feedbacks might accelerate
climate change to unprecedented levels. Johan Rockstrom, the co-author of the report,
believes these tipping elements will act like a row of dominoes, it may become nearly
impossible to prevent the whole row from tumbling. Human-induced warming from fossil
fuel combustion and other human activities could trigger a cascade of feedbacks processes
which will not amplify global warming but continue warming the Earth even after human-
induced emissions are curtailed and this is what makes these positive feedbacks a great
cause of concern in our fight against climate change.

The Combined Effect of different Feedbacks, source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DW
The combining of these positive feedbacks could spell disaster by pushing us closer to
Hothouse Earth conditions. The hothouse conditions are most likely going to be
uncontrollable and perilous to many, posing severe risks for health, economies, and political
stability. These conditions will ultimately render most part of the Earth inhabitable. The
most vulnerable to changes in the hydroclimate are agricultural production and water
supplies which could lead to hot/dry or cool/wet extremes further triggering severe regional
droughts leading to societal declines, collapses, migrations, and reorganisations. World’s
coastal zones, the low-lying deltas and coastal seas remain vulnerable to hothouse
conditions as these conditions will flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage
from coastal storms and eliminate coral reefs.
Collective human action becomes imperative to steer the planet away from hothouse
conditions and this action entails stewardship of the entire Earth system – climate,
biosphere, and societies.

Let’s Get a Grip and Act!

Not a lot of importance is attached to positive feedbacks in the discourse on climate change
even though evidence suggests that the sensitivity of our climate system to anthropogenic
pressures will be decided by a combination of feedbacks that could amplify the effects of
man-made warming. Amplifying feedbacks could make climate change worse as many
models predict, but these have not been able to garner much attention. The report by the
American Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests that these feedbacks
together could accelerate climate change to unfathomable levels. These positive feedbacks
remain a great cause of concern also as their actual strength couldn’t be discerned as in the
case of human-induced warming from emissions. The future impacts of positive feedbacks
warrant a larger study and must be of immediate interest to those involved in climate
policymaking.
To deal with the potential domino effect of positive feedbacks, we must combat climate
change at all imaginable fronts – the global political economy must be decarbonised, we
have to enhance and conserve our carbon sinks, newer and effective governance
arrangements have to be put in place, and we have to adopt major lifestyle changes. We
must rapidly cut down on global emissions and reach zero net emissions in the second half
of the century. An important point to remember about climate change is that it results in
additional climate change – we must get a grip and act immediately!