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2017GMF 2017-06-09 John Leahy
2017GMF 2017-06-09 John Leahy
2017GMF 2017-06-09 John Leahy
John Leahy
Chief Operating Officer, Customers
Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights
vs. % change
World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036
GMF16 2016-2036
2 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes)
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft
5.3
8,686 twin-aisle aircraft $US trillion
+626
3 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes)
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value
Number of aircraft
30,000
24,810
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 8,690
5,000
1,410
0
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
4 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Fleet in service evolution
Number of aircraft*
45,000
40,000
35,000
22,030 Growth
30,000
20-year
25,000 34,900 new deliveries
20,000
15,000
12,870 Replacement
10,000 20,500
5,000
7,630 Stay
-
Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries
5 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
2016 was a good year
50
42
40
30
20
20
10
0
<0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10%
% - ASK growth 2015-2016
80%
80%
75%
70%
69%
65%
60%
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Emerging/Developing
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Asia
Africa
CIS
6.4
billion people
+5.8 %
Latin America
Central Europe in 2016
Advanced
Western Europe
Israel
North America
Japan
1
billion people
+3.2 %
Singapore
in 2016
South Korea
Australia/New Zealand
4,950
5,000
4,000
3,900
90 Forecast
80
70
60
46%
50 Emerging/Developing
countries
40
34%
30
0
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
1,400
1,200
>1.2bn tourists
1,000 Tourism by Air
800
600
400
200
0
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Europe-CIS
North America
x2.6 38m
x1.2 25m
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
2006 2016 x4.8 >39m
2006 2016 x16.4 4m
2006 2016
India, 2016
0.1 trips per capita
0.01
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Pow er Parity)
0.01
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2036 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Pow er Parity)
6 +60%
5
growth over the
last 10 years
x2
since 9/11
0
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
14
x2
12
10
8 x2
6
4 x2
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
CIS 4% 4.0% 4%
Africa 3% 5.3% 3%
All Airlines average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight LCCs average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight
170 170
165
160 156 160
155
150
150 150
143 143
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016
19 Note: Aircraft capacity above 100 seats and below 210 seats
Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF
A320 Family cabin enablers can raise A320 Family seat counts by up to 10%
A319 156 160 seats A320 180 189 seats A321 220 240 seats
20
A320 deliveries above 180 seats (% total deliveries)
60%
Densification
50% trend
40%
Airlines are
choosing cabin
30%
enablers to
increase seat
20% count beyond 180
seats
10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Airbus
21
A320 Family deliveries
A319 A320 A321
100%
13% 16% 18% 21%
31%
Upsizing
80% 37% 41%
The single-aisle
60%
market continues
74%
73% to move towards
73%
40%
71%
62%
higher capacity
57%
59%
aircraft
20%
13% 11% 8% 8% 7% 5%
0% 1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Airbus, End December
2016, includes NEO
22
A321 –
growing in
popularity
65% of net orders
41% of deliveries
of Airbus single
aisles in 2016 were
A321s
23
Capacity Range Fuel per seat
A321neo
Up to 240 seats &
4,000nm range
with unbeatable
fuel efficiency
24
A330neo
… beats the 787
on comfort, fuel
and economics
at $20m to $25m
lower capital cost
25
A350 XWB
25% lower
• operating cost
• fuel burn
• CO2 emissions
26
10% of all
Heathrow
passengers
In 2016, 10% of all
passengers at
London Heathrow
travelled on 54 daily
A380 flights*
27
Upper deck door 3 deactivation*
8 seats
A380
new
New rear stair Upper deck sidewall stowage removal
14 seats 6 seats
revenue
enablers
New forward stair*
28
Backlog development 2007 - 2016
Boeing
Airbus Boeing Airbus 5,715
2,533
51%
2,455
49%
X 2.5 6,874
55%
45%
X 2.7 X 2.3
Boeing
Airbus 8,978
9,995 47%
53%
Drivers
Strong & resilient passenger traffic growth
31
Summary
Traffic forecast
Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years
32
Summary
Fleet forecast
33
Summary
Airbus Family
A321 an ideal entry-point into medium to long-haul markets
34