Jonas Colen Ladeia Torrens, 08 June 2022

Visioning
0PDE05 Transformative approaches to energy, mobility and smart cities

Jonas Torrens / Slides by Anna Wieczoerek

Daily agenda
Friday, 09 June:
10:40 - 11:30 Intro to Visioning

11:45 - 12:00 CWS Visioning

12:00 - 12:45 Lunch

12:45 - 13:30 CWS Visioning

13:45 - 14:15 Intro to (urban) experimentation

14:15 - 16:00 CWS Urban Experimentation

16:00 - 16:15 Reflection & feedback

Reading
Visioning

- Wiek, A., Iwaniec, D. (2014a). Quality criteria for

visions and visioning in sustainability science,
Sustainability Science 9:497-512, https://
dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-013-0208-6
- Wiek, A., Iwaniec, D. (2014b). Advancing
Sustainability Visioning Practice in Planning—The
General Plan Update in Phoenix, Arizona, Planning
Practice & Research, 29 (5), 543-568 (additional)
Outline

1. Visions and expectations

2. The process of (en)visioning
3. Scenarios, forecasting, backcasting
4. The assignment

6
VISIONS AND EXPECTATIONS
 How did we solve the problems so far?
Approach: five intervention points
Outcome of a better understanding
Response PhaseFocus of Attention Main Actors Driving Philosophy

Reactive
* End-of-pipe Specialists Minimisation
Broad context
Harnessing broad trends for transformative change

Receptive Process Managers Optimisation

Decline of
Technology the in
Policy Constructive Product/eco
Infrastructure
cum
ben designSector
cy
Acceleration
Politics
Incumbent
*
system Research
Destabilisation of unsustainable regimes
*
New system
Influencing
Pro-active
Culture & routinesIndustry Systemses Society Vision
v
ati
Markets & users
n directionality
ter
Development of al

x
x xx
x
x x * Supporting alternatives’ development and institutionalisation

x x
x
Niches
* Stimulating diversity through socio-technical experimentation
While many past radical changes have
been emergent…

…to move forward, we need to know

where we want to go!

10
 What are expectations?
And how do they differ from visions?

• Expectations: real time representations about the future

✓ Heterogeneous (economic, social, technological)
✓ Positive or negative
✓ Statements, acts (speech acts), artefacts
✓ Technical, commercial, societal
• Visions: packages of expectations that cohere as a narrative,
(un)desirable state in the future, holistic, far-sighted
✓ Intentional or emerging
✓ Utopia, dystopia

Harro van Lente, 2015

12
Visions and expectations are everywhere
EXPLICIT

• Explicit
- foresight reports and other studies of the future
- statements of engineers, firms, politicians etc

13
Visions and expectations are everywhere
IMPLICIT

• Implicit
- ‘not yet’, ‘will be’, ‘probably’
- ‘material Y is the most suitable for this application’

14
Visions and expectations are everywhere
IMAGES

• Images
- pictures of future cities (happy people, slender people)
- the ‘car of the future’ at shows

15
Visions and expectations are everywhere
WORDS

• Words
- ‘hydrogen economy’ , ‘smart city’
- ‘participation society’

16
Visions and expectations are everywhere
TARGETS

• Qualitative and quantitative goals and targets

17
Why visions and expectations are
everywhere?

• Human condition:
- people are meaning making machines
- they have future orientation of action and evaluation
• Uncertainty and risk of technological change
- yet decisions are expected (urgency)
- visions and expectations as short-cut (heuristics)

Harro van Lente, 2015

18
Managing visions and expectations?

• Visions and expectations are more than just statements

✓ performativity
• ... and have a dynamic on their own
✓ no point source
• ... leading to patterns
✓ such as hype or waiting games
• ... which may be recognised
✓ by Gartner, or Shell, or researchers, or ministries, etc
• ... who try to make use of the pattern
✓ but without gaining full control
• ... so there is space for visions to make a difference
✓ like the ‘smart city’?

Harro van Lente, 2015

19
Expectations lead to hype cycles

evaluations of more than 2,000

technologies the research and
advisory firms tracks

technologies that show the most

potential for delivering a
competitive advantage over the
next five to 10 years are included
in the Hype Cycle.

20
Five emerging technology trends 2019

21
Visions and expectations do things

(‘performativity’)

• Not descriptive statements that can be true or false

• Compelling claims that enforce action

• Mobilisation
- others are always needed in (radical) change
• Legitimation
- you have to give reasons
• Guiding
- the next step cannot be calculated, search process, reduce uncertainty
• Motivating
- more than push factors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWLBmapcJRU

23
 Sustainability visions
Functions

• Key reference point for developing strategies to

transition to desirable state
• Actively avoiding undesirable developments
• Capacity building
• Empowering stakeholders
• Enrolling actors
• Mobilising resources

16
24
The ideal system innovation vision

Fuzzy, but
Long-term or
specific enough Inspiring
medium-term
to allow for
horizon
agenda setting

Participatory Socio-technical Radical

Relevant and
Easy to convey Action oriented coherent

Sterrenberg et al., 2006

25
 A good sustainability vision

18 Wiek and Iwaniec, 2014 26

Construct quality

• Systemic
- Holistic representation, linkages between vision elements, e.g.
socio-technical
• Coherent
- Composed of compatible goals, free from contradictions
• Plausible
- Based on evidence, empirical data, theoretical models, pilot
projects, implemented elsewhere, grounded in reality
• Tangible
- Composed of clearly articulated and detailed goals

27
Normative quality

• Visionary
- Far-sighted, with elements of utopian thought, elements of
surprise
• Sustainable
- Following principles of sustainability

28
Transformational quality

• Shared
- Embedding a degree of agreement and support by stakeholders
• Motivational
- Inspiring and motivating towards the change, uncoupling from
current practices
• Nuanced
- Detailing priorities and desirabilities
• Relevant
- Composed of salient goals that focus on people, their roles and
responsibilities, clear who benefits, who uses it

29
(EN)VISIONING
 What is (en)visioning?

• Process of creating a vision

• Discussion about how a desirable future might look

• A critical element of change

• A long-standing effort in human evolution & social change

• A key method in sustainability research & problem solving

Wiek & Iwaniec 2014

31
 Modern visioning approaches

• Backcasting (Robinson 1982; Holmberg 1998; McDowall&Eames 2007; Eames&Egmose, 2011

• Community Visioning (Okubo 2000)
• Future Search Conference (Oels 2009)
• Future Workshop (Jungk & Mellert 1987)
• Imagination Studio (Eickhoff & Geffer 2009)
• Integrated Assessment (Ravetz 2000; Weaver & Rotmans 2006)
• Leitbild Concept (Potschin et al. 2010)
• Sustainability Solution Space (Wiek & Binder 2005)
• Sustainability Choice Space (Potschin and Haines-Young 2008)
• Visioneering (Kim and Oki 2011)
• Sustainability vision studies (Meadows 1996; Constanza 2000; Bossel 1998; Raskin et al.
2002; Newman &Jennings 2008)
• Evaluative studies on sustainability visioning (Shipley 2000; Shipley & Michela 2006; van der
Helm 2009)

Wiek & Iwaniec 2014

32
What is (en)visioning about?

• Imagining, visualising and specifying

• Not ONE image, ‘basket of images’
• Out-of-the-box thinking

33
Basket of images and multiple pathways

4 4
3
4
4
5
5
5

1 2

34
 Rotterdam

Long term: perspective 2040

Mid term: course 2025
Short term: action 2015

Two main objectives:

• to reinforce the economic structure of the port and the city
• to create attractive, high quality living and working environments

Three ambitions:
• connect city and port
• sustainable development
• international allure
•
 How can we do envisioning?
Design principles

• Meaningful sequence
• Iterative procedure
• Creativity techniques
• Visualisation techniques
• Participatory setting
• Use of analytical tools

Wiek & Iwaniec 2014

43
 Design principles
Meaningful sequence

2. Eliciting 4. Reviewing
1. Framing 3. Analysing 6. Final
vision & revising the 5. Finalising
the visioning the vision review &
statements & analysed the vision
process drafts dissemination
priorities vision drafts

Iwaniec & Wiek 2014

44
Design principles
Visualisation techniques

45
Design principles
Iterative procedure https://zoom.frontwise.com/view/94/TRANSITIONS-2

46
Design principle
Creative techniques, participatory setting

47
 Design principles
Use of analyses and analytical tools

• Review of the vision -> desirable

- Surprise, utopian, far-sighted
• System analysis -> systemic
- Drivers, feedback loops, impacts, modelling, system dynamics
• Consistency analysis -> coherent
- Conflicts, tradeoffs analyses
• Sustainability assessment -> sustainable
- MCA, MCM
• Plausibility appraisal -> plausible
- Creative techniques, WSs, games
• Traget specification -> tangible
- Visualisation techniques
• Actor oriented analysis -> relevant, shared
• Priorities assessment -> nuanced, coherent

Iwaniec & Wiek 2014

48
SCENARIOS, FORECASTS &
BACKCASTING
 Diversity of futures

Scenarios: Explore

Present Possible futures

Forecasting: Predict

Present Likely future

Backcasting:
Asses
Present Desired
future, vision

Robinson, 1982
Scenarios: exploring possible futures

- “…narrative descriptions of possible futures that focus attention

on causal processes and decision points” (Dammers, 2010)
- Decisions today have an impact in the future
- Complexity and uncertainty in future trends

- Schematic descriptions of key variables 10-40 years in the future

51
 1. Model approach

• 1950s US
• Military approach
• Computer models, quantitative
• Large amount of measurable variables
• Limited scope: left out variables, tough to introduce new
• Scientific experts
• Welfare, Prosperity, and Quality of

the Living Environment

Dammers, 2010
52
2. Design Approach

• 1960s France
• For urban and regional development (territorial)
• Design activities and creative thinking
• Great variety of topics explored in an integrated way
• Explanatory power limited; causation not explicit, sketchy
• Scenarios very different to each other
• First: urban planners, landscape 

architects,
• Now: policy makers, users
• Ex: The Netherlands 2030

Dammers, 2010
53
3. Strategic Conversation

• 1970s Shell:
• To prepare management for changing business environment
• Origin in private sector
• Broad scope and integrated way
• Explanatory power moderate: causality not as explicit as in
model approach
• Plausible and possible scenarios
• Highly interactive, variety of stakeholders
• Shell Global Scenarios 2025

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ2uIPeiEYQ

Dammers, 2010
54
Scenarios are used for

Knowledge: trends and their mutual relations

new problems and challenges
policies and their impacts

Communication: structuring strategic conversation

stimulating participation

Mobilisation: showing alternative policies

exploring future support

55
 Forecasting: predicting likely futures

• Traditional
- Prediction of the future based on past and present data and
trends analysis
- Formal statistical methods
- Risk and uncertainty central

• Technological Forecasting
- Monitoring of technological developments
- Prediction of the future characteristics of useful technologies
- Identification of promising technologies
- Validation
- Communication

56
Technology forecasting
Methods

• Delphi method
- Panel of experts, questionnaires, 2 rounds, summary, revision,
convergence
• Forecast by analogy
• Two similar phenomena share the same behaviour patterns
• Comparison with existing products
• Extrapolation
• Value of a variable calculated based on its relationship with
another
• Growth curves

57
 Backcasting: assessing desired futures

An approach to future studies which involves the

development of normative scenarios aimed at assessing the
feasibility and implications of achieving certain desired end
points

• 1970’s – a complementary policy tool for energy forecasting

& planning
• Later potential for identifying and exploring sustainability
solutions

Backward-looking analysis (Amory Lovins)

Robinson, 1982
58
Backcasting process

• Visioning a desirable (sustainable ) future (images)

• Looking back on how to achieved it
- Relating images to themes / sectors
- Applying “from-to” logic
- Connecting the future with the present
- Making use of forecasting and scenarios
• Defining & planning follow-up:
- Activities
- Strategies
- Required policy measures
- Experiments!

59
 Towards more sustainable subsystems

sector from to
mobility car dependency flexible chain mobility
mobility individually owned vehicles mobility as a service
water fighting water living with water
waste waste waste is food
materials recycling upcycling
energy fossil renewable
buildings consuming and polluting producing and cleansing
Ghent Living street experiments

61
Major activities and tools

• Orientation (problem)
• Design (future vision, normative scenario, process)
• Assessment and analysis
• Participation of stakeholders
✓ Debating
✓ Negotiation
✓ Management
✓ Learning
− Cognitive (1st order) – do we do things right?
− Reflexive (2nd order) - values, attitudes and convictions
− Policy– redefinition of goals, problem def. & strategies
− Organisational– changes in norms, values goals and operating procedures)

62
Usefulness of BC

• Stakeholders involvement & network creation

• Generation of future visions & normative scenarios
• Inclusion of visions in relevant agendas
• Analysis of the degree to which undesirable futures can be
avoided
• Definition of a follow up agenda for groups of stakeholders
• Stakeholders learning & engagement

63
Backcasting is especially promising

• In case of complex problems

• When there is a need for a major change
• When dominant trends are part of the problem
• When there is a need for long time horizons

Sustainability problems are clear examples of such

problems (Dreborg 1996: 86).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FS7o4g5kzMM

64
Aberdeen 2050

Roorda and Witmeyer, 2014

65
Visioning
Co-creation workshop
Plan for today
Newspaper 10 June 2062

• You will have to design a true newspaper with all its characteristics, you are the editors!

• Fit your newspaper in 4 slides (marked below)

• Aim: practice with visioning, scenarios, backcasting, forecasting

• You may prepare some elements e.g.:

Use your imagination and creativity!!
• Photos or pictures from your old magazines

• Your own opinion column - typed

• Interview with a president or communities or a homeless banker - typed

• Mobilise MLP, SNM, Actors/agency results

1. Remember the current system and its problems
5 min

• What are the critical regime problems?

• What are niche weaknesses?

• What are the reasons behind (historical, current)

• Use your MLP, agency and SNM results

2. Use cover story format to envision a sustainable future on 10 Jun 2062

Page/slide 1 - 30 min

• How does the system, your innovation is trying to challenge today, look like in the future?

• Use *selected vision criteria here.

• Look for pictures that represent this future or its elements

• Which problems are addressed?

• Use your Barriers and SNM analysis here.

• Who is in charge?

• Use your agency analysis here.

• What are the newspaper headlines?

Cover story format
21-11-2015
3. Use backcasting method to identify actions
Page/slide 2 - 30 min

• What intermediary actions were needed to reach the future state that you
reported on cover page?

• Identify 2 such moments in ca 2035 and 2040

• How must the technology develop?

• How do actor constellations change, who is in charge, who is gone?

• What policy/regulations need to be in place?

• How must values, beliefs and practices evolve?

• Use page 2+3 of your newspaper to report

4. Use forecasting method to identify immediate actions
Page/slide 3 - 30 min

• What immediate (5 years from now) actions are needed to progress towards
the desired future?

• Try to come up with min 3

• What socio-technical experiments should be initiated to verify the feasibility of

this transition?

• Try to propose min 3

• Use page 2+3 of your newspaper to report

5. What are the future (starting 10 Jun 2062) forecasts and scenarios
Page/slide 4 - 15 min

• Use concepts of scenarios and forecasts to say sth about possible and likely
future - reflection

• You may use various formats to report that:

• interview with a rector of TU/e (one of you?)

• column by known reporter

• graphs, pictures