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Time Series Study Notes
Time Series Study Notes
Tme Senes
IntroduenoD
One Of the imporio moSt
tasKs boore EcongmiSt8
Businessmen those IS
day to ma Ke estHmaHe fer the Putune
e.g A bus1nesS man interested
gales yedr 2023
inding
in
hs brely 0
a
long term ploming in. 2028 0r
the year 2035 80 tht he Could
ddjust "is produeton
or
accordgy
inadequcte
dvoid
producHon to
the
meet
passibiby
the dema nd.
Of e ther unsold Stcks
0f me.
per
e8 populaton, capral income price producHon for
fture. Ths
bag1s of past clata, we proaie TIme
the
acerrding the
t0
help
tIme
of Hme
8 Time Sories
Can
prodrt
medns
Puture.
forCes.
Of ty pes VanaHons changes Can be
4 ypes
) Seoulor mO vemen t8:~
Changes that have ocourod result
the daa t0 inerease 0 r
general tendency deoreayet s
Graphc Meitod 3
S1mplest method of study1ng rend.
s- ) Plo+ the time senes on
Plo graph.
Esearmine the direcHon of the trerd
(8) Draw d St raiglt Iine which wll bes+ Ar to the dase.
Ex Fit a trend ne t0 the falloing dewa the freehand
method.
year Produoton of Steel
Iq45 29 Trend by Freehandt method.
20
1446 22
0q47 24
25
|948 21
23 23
9000
Trend
95
ne
200| 23
2002
26
1996 l497 A98 I999 200 200|02 2008
2003 25
Yeans
(5)
2 Mehod of Semi dverage8 -
Steps:- ) D1vicle he data wo equal pors.
eo Suppose you are given 18 yeans of doua
from |968 to 9003,. divicle it equal
from 1986 I0 |494 from 2003.
Case
yeans Live. 9.13, 1 ee ) Omit the mddle
year then divide it in te 2 equal
1S Ivn tor from |985 to 20 03
2003 I12
Trend Ine
|05
(6)
3 Methed
Mong rage
whle
period
appyng ths method select
for moving dverage such
8uch as 3- yeory movig overage
55-
yeorty moving average, 8- yory moving
dverage.
Data a, b, c, die, f,g, h
The
8-yeorty moving average be determined by
d+ bsc btc+d C+d+e d+etf
3 3 3
The
5-yearly moving overage con be determined by
d+ b+c+ dte btc+d+ e+f c+ d+etf+o
5 5 5
|492 18 18]3 = 6
I943 21
24
I944 94)3= 8
I995 8 31 3)3 = l0-33
1946 J4 g5 353 - I1-66
J2+
|947 13
Acrual daq
8
Trend line
(9)
Calculae 55yeardy 3 1 yolymoving averages foT te
Commercial 8 Industrial falure
failure in
following dua.
dara. of the
country dhing 1944 t0 2004
(10)
There dnother me thod 0f cenrering the noving dverages. I
We. aTe caleulasing 4 yeurly moving averngo 4-yearly
ta ve
2008 20
9009
2004 612
The method Of Least Squa res
This method is most used prarte. T is
mathe matical method trend line is
fitted to the daHa
WIth
help a
the
tollowigg 2 normal equns be solved.
Zy= Na+ bbIx Where N= no of years months
2xy = ax +bx2 time
(12)
Whenever Ne St line trond by te leost squares
method , thre things shouwd be speifcd
() Which year Was selected as the oTigin ?
(9) What is the Of time Tepregented by x? T iit hals yean,
year
One five years ?
(3)In what kind units is y being meagured
9
Is ir it
nhen the
much
smplnid in Hme is taken, as
X= 0) Nomal equns
2y= Na
2xy = b2x
Uog whch we Can the vaues of a b
2
N
of even
years also 2x=0 If the deviattons dre ta ren from the
m1dpoint bet ween the two middl yea rs.(3)
eg. the years dre 2004, 2005, 9006, 2001, 2008 , 200g . then
we take
devidttons from the middle
year 2006- 5 . Thus
the deviaHons NoLld be -2.5) -}5, -05 0·5) 5) 2.5. or
1
(l4)
If instead af middle yer as oTigIn, we tare fITSt yean asarigin
N7 y: 630 2xy = lq46 Zx': q) IYc= 630 (o
be 7333 .
Bor 2004 X=
X= 5-5
Y= 055 + 3-667 () = l06-081
(5)
X
X
88803+·38 X
03 45 ·38 b=
563 4|· 51b d+ l59-
803 88a=
183 40 +b 7a 623=
803 88
423 87
I baZx+ Zxy=
043 86- bIx +Na2y=
83.283
362 =Yc2 204 Onigyn:
51ZX 1592xy= Zx=| 623 Zy- N=. tonnes) m.(
48 85 44 88
ProducHon
2009 2006 2005 9004 2003 9002 2000 year
acHory Sugi
a OF
s) m1llion (producHon
in Figures
of given Below B,
the