2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election

will be the 60th quadrennial presidential 2024 United States presidential election
election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5,
2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election
after electoral votes were redistributed during
November 5, 2024
the 2020 census reapportionment cycle. The
incumbent, President Joe Biden, stated in
January 2022 his intent to run for reelection 538 members of the Electoral College
with Vice President Kamala Harris as his 270 electoral votes needed to win
running mate.[2] As of April  2023, Biden has
 
not formally announced a reelection
campaign.[3] In November 2022, former Party Democratic Republican
president Donald Trump announced his
candidacy for president for a second,
nonconsecutive term.[4] In the United States,
general elections follow caucuses and primary
elections held by the major parties to determine
their nominees. The winner of the 2024
presidential election is scheduled to be
inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Abortion access and the overturn of Roe v.

Wade,[5] LGBT rights such as same-sex
marriage,[6] democratic backsliding[7] and the
2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census
state of the economy[8] are expected to be
leading campaign issues; this is the first
presidential election to be held in the aftermath Incumbent President
of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health
Joe Biden
Organization, the January 6 United States
Democratic
Capitol attack, and the indictment of Donald
Trump.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual
must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States
resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected
president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are
eligible to seek reelection. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various
political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The
primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates
pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the
party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that
party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a
slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice
president.[9] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a
contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the
three candidates who received the most electoral votes (this last happened in 1825), and the Senate will
select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals (this last happened in
1837). The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate
elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Both Biden and Trump have indicated that they intend to run for president in 2024, suggesting a potential
rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[10] If Trump is
elected, he would become the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a second non-
consecutive term.[11]

Effects of the 2020 census

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United
States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[12][13] This apportionment of electoral
college votes will remain through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the
2030 United States census.[14]

Potential campaign issues

Abortion rights

Abortion rights are expected to be a leading topic, as this will be the first presidential election to be held in
the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which overturned the
1973 Roe v. Wade decision and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion for the first time in nearly 50
years.[15]

The topic of abortion could play a role in the Republican primary with many potential candidates, such as
former vice president Mike Pence, supporting a nationwide ban on the procedure. Other potential
candidates have struck a less aggressive tone and suggested that the matter should remain the decision of
state governments.[16] Democrats are predominately supportive of its legality to the point of fetal
viability.[15]

Candidate viability

A potential election rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has raised concerns about the advanced
ages of both candidates.[17][18]

According to follow-up interviews with respondents to a survey by Associated Press-NORC Center for
Public Affairs Research, most interviewees think Biden's age is a problem because of "his coughing, his
gait and his gaffes," and the likelihood that someone younger would be more suitable for this stressful
position.[19] According to the poll, 37% of Democrats say Biden should run for re-election in 2024 (down
from 52% in October).[19] Some
Democrats have called for Biden to step
down in favor of a more youthful
nominee.[20][21] Fifteen Democratic
officials were interviewed and nearly all
expressed concerns over Biden's political
viability given his age if he wins the 2024
election.[22]

Similarly, Trump's age could play a

significant role in the election.[23]
Republican challenger Nikki Haley kicked
off her campaign by calling for a
generational change and a mandatory
retirement for all politicians over 75 years
old, which would preclude Trump from
running for office.[24] Analysts believe that
youth could be an advantage for Florida
governor Ron DeSantis, who is also
expected to challenge Trump in the
Republican primary.[25]
Democracy and insurrection
threats
Donald Trump did not concede defeat to
Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election,
citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud,
and has continued denying the election
results as of 2022.[26][27] Republican
officials in the Trump administration and in
Congress have supported attempts to
overturn the election.[28][29] Election
security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may
attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[30]
Status of elective abortion in the United States
   Illegal
   Legally unclear or legal but no providers
   Legal before cardiac-cell activity[a]
   Legal through 15th week LMP (1st trimester)
   Legal through 18th week LMP
   Legal through 20th week LMP
   Legal through 22nd week LMP (5 months)
   Legal before fetal viability[b]
   Legal through 24th week LMP (5½ months)
   Legal through second trimester[c]
   Legal at any stage
LMP is the time since the last menstrual period began.
This color-coded map illustrates the current legal status of
elective-specific abortion procedures in each of the individual
50 states, U.S. territories, and federal district[d] A colored
border indicates that a more stringent restriction or ban,
corresponding to the key, is blocked by the courts (as of March
18, 2023).

In the 2022 midterm elections, the majority of Republican candidates in five battleground states falsely
claimed or implied that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate.[31] Election legitimacy was a major
political issue during the 2022 elections, and it is credited for unexpectedly strong Democratic performance
that year.[32][33] Nevertheless, according to the New York Times, by November 9, nearly 200 election
deniers had been elected to office.[34]
In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified
that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not
going away anytime soon."[35] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S.
Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for
whatever the Congress certifies."[36]

Economic issues

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which could persist into the 2024
presidential election.[37] An October 2022 New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Americans
were most concerned about the state of the economy and the rate of inflation.[38]

LGBT rights

LGBT rights in the United States, particularly same-sex

marriage,[6] are expected to be a leading issue of the 2024
presidential campaign.[39] The current composition of the Supreme
Court has led to widespread speculation that the present majority
will vote to overturn the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision,
which ruled that marriage was a fundamental right for same-sex
couples.[40][41] In the event of repeal, a majority of states would
not legally issue same-sex marriage licenses within their U.S. state constitutional
amendments banning same-sex
jurisdictions;[42] the Respect for Marriage Act requires the federal
unions
government and all states and territories to recognize the validity of
   Constitutional amendment bans
same-sex marriages in other states.[43] There are several so-called
same-sex marriage, civil unions, and
"zombie laws" that would become activated if Obergefell is
any marriage-like contract between
overturned.[44] unmarried persons
   Constitutional amendment bans
According to Human Rights Campaign (HRC), 410 anti-LGBT
same-sex marriage and civil unions
bills have been introduced in state legislatures as of March 2023,
   Constitutional amendment bans
with 180 of those bills going against transgender rights, with the
HRC releasing data in March 2023 indicating that more then half of same-sex marriage
transgender youth from ages 13-17 have either lost or are at risk of    No state constitutional
losing access to gender-affirming healthcare[45][46] In a February amendment bans legal recognition of
same-sex unions
campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would
   Constitutional amendment
enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed
that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", recognizes same-sex marriage
and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target
transgender Americans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is
seen as a 2024 challenger to Trump, has called for physicians who give gender-affirming healthcare to
minors to be sued.[47]

Democratic Party
President Joe Biden has consistently stated that he plans to run for re-election and keep Vice President
Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] However, he has yet to officially declare his candidacy. During late
2021, as Biden was suffering from low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-
election,[48] and some prominent Democrats have publicly urged Biden not to run.[49][50][51] In addition to
Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at
age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second
term.[52] There has also been speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the
Democratic Party's progressive faction.[53][54] However, Biden's approval rating slowly recovered
throughout 2022, climbing from the low 30s to the high 40s.[55] Additionally, after Democrats
outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run
for and win his party's nomination had increased.[56]

Declared candidates

Campaign
Name Born Experience Home state Ref
Announcement date

Author
Founder of
July 8, 1952 Project Angel
(age 70) Food [58]
March 4, 2023
Houston, Texas Candidate for
President in FEC filing[57]
2020 California

Marianne
Williamson

January 17, 1954 Environmental

(age 69) lawyer, author [60]
April 5, 2023
Washington, and anti-vaccine [59]
D.C. activist FEC filing

California

Robert F. Kennedy
Jr.

Republican Party
Donald Trump was the incumbent defeated by Biden in 2020 and is eligible to run again in 2024. He is
seeking to become the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms, after only Grover Cleveland,
who won his second term in 1892.[61] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican
presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[62]
However, there are multiple factors working against Trump: the hearings held by the United States House
Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have damaged public opinion towards him,[63][64] in 2022 the
FBI searched Trump's estate at Mar-a-Lago,[65][66] and on March 30, 2023, Trump was indicted over his
hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[67]

Although Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not officially announced a presidential run, he is often seen
as a main contender to Trump for the presidency; DeSantis raised more campaign funds in the first half of
2022, and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[68][69][70] Trump
announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination,
his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[71] If Trump runs against President
Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since 1956 after Dwight D. Eisenhower successfully
ran for reelection against Adlai Stevenson II. Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal
Election Commission on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the
same day.[72][73]
On February 14, 2023, Nikki Haley filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election
Commission,[74] and on February 15, 2023, in Charleston, South Carolina, officially announced her
candidacy, making her the first challenger to former President Donald Trump's campaign.[75][76][77]

Declared candidates

Campaign
Name Born Experience Home state Ref
Announcement date

Ambassador
to the United
January 20, 1972
Nations
(age 51) Campaign [79]
(2017–2018)
Bamberg, South
Governor of
Carolina February 14, 2023
South Carolina South Carolina
(2011–2017) FEC filing[78]

Nikki Haley

Governor of
Arkansas
(2015–2023)
Administrator
December 3, 1950 of the Drug Campaign
(age 72) Enforcement [80]
Bentonville, Administration April 2, 2023
Arkansas (2001–2003) FEC filing
U.S. Arkansas
Representative
from AR-03
Asa Hutchinson (1997–2001)

Executive
chairman of
Strive Asset
Management
August 9, 1985
(2022– [82]
(age 37)
present)
Cincinnati, Ohio
CEO of
Roivant Campaign
Ohio
Sciences
(2014–2021) February 21, 2023
Vivek Ramaswamy FEC filing[81]

President of
the United
June 14, 1946 States (2017–
(age 76) 2021) [85]
Campaign
Queens, New Chairman of
York The Trump
November 15, 2022
Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida FEC filing[83][84]

Donald Trump

Libertarian Party
Declared candidates

Campaign
Name Born Experience Home state Ref
Announcement date

Businessman
and media
personality
Owner of the
Greater
Wynnewood
Exotic Animal
March 5, 1963
Park (1998–
(age 60) [87]
2018)
Garden City,
Independent Campaign (https://www.jo
Kansas
candidate for eexotic2024.com)
President in Indiana March 10, 2023
2016
FEC filing[86]
Joe Exotic Candidate for
Governor of
Oklahoma in
2018

President of [89]
Unknown
Lars Mapstead Fupa Games
Campaign (https://www.la
rs24.com)
California March 23, 2021
FEC filing[88]

Hallandale
Beach police
Portland, officer [89]
Mike ter Maat Oregon Economist
Nominee for Virginia
Campaign (https://www.M
FL-20 in 2022 iketerMaat.com)
April 18, 2022
FEC filing[90]

Formed exploratory committee

As of April 2023, the following individual has announced exploratory committees to look into running for
president within the previous six months.
 Chase Oliver, chair of the Atlanta Libertarian Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in Georgia
in 2022.[91]

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Candidates

Declared intent to run

As of April 2023, the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[92]

Kanye West, rapper, candidate for president in 2020 (campaign)[93]

Potential candidates
Howie Hawkins, environmental activist and candidate for president in 2020 for the Green
Party[94]
Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Secretary of Appointments of Maryland
(2003–2007); founder of Hogan Companies and Change Maryland[95][96]
Tulsi Gabbard, United States Representative from HI-02 (2013–2021), member of the
Honolulu City Council (2011–2012), member of the Hawaii House of Representatives
(2002–2004), Democratic candidate for president in 2020[97]
Joe Manchin, United States Senator from West Virginia (2010–present), 34th Governor of
West Virginia (2005–2010), 27th West Virginia Secretary of State (2001–2005), member of
the West Virginia Senate from the 13th district (1986–1996), member of the West Virginia
House of Delegates from the 31st district (1982–1986)[96]

Declined to be candidates

Mark Cuban, investor and entrepreneur[98]

Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman[99]
Kyrsten Sinema, United States Senator from Arizona (2019–present), United States
Representative from AZ-09 (2013–2019), member of the Arizona Senate (2011–2012),
member of the Arizona House of Representatives (2005–2011)[100]

General election opinion polling

Timeline

See also
Politics portal
United States
 portal

2024 United States elections

2024 United States gubernatorial elections
2024 United States House of Representatives elections
2024 United States Senate elections

Notes
a. This generally happens in the 6th week LMP.
b. Typically, it is between the 23rd or 24th week LMP.
c. Variously defined as through 27th or 28th week LMP; in Massachusetts, 24 weeks from
implantation ≈ 27 weeks LMP.
d. All states but the state of Tennessee (which has an affirmative defense instead) make
exceptions if the mother’s life is in danger.
• Exceptions for risk to mother's physical health: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,
North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia,
Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
• Exceptions for risk to mother's general health: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii,
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Rhode
Island, Virginia, Washington.
• Exception for pregnancy due to rape or incest: Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi,
North Dakota, South Carolina, West Virginia, Utah, and Wyoming.
• Exception for lethal fetal abnormality: Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa,
Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Utah.

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