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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN AND REGIONAL RESEARCH 480
DOI:10.1111/1468-2427.13030

— URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND


THE CZECH REPUBLIC: A Comparative Multilevel
Governance Perspective
Kai Zhou, Jaroslav Koutský, Justin B. Hollander

Abstract
Although the phenomenon of shrinking cities is a global one, policy responses can
vary considerably depending on context. This article examines the initiatives of government
agencies in a variety of contexts and finds that cities adopt different strategies to manage
the problems of shrinkage. Specifically, the article presents an international comparison
of three shrinking cities: Fu Xin in China, New Bedford in the USA, and Ústí nad Labem in
the Czech Republic. These three cases, which present three distinctive political frameworks
(namely, centralism, localism and indirect centralism), have responded to the issue
differently but experienced similarly insufficient policy outcomes. We observed that the
political agenda-setting for shrinking cities involved more than simply choosing to ignore,
deny or accept the problem, and focused instead on how the local governments opted to
recognize their problems, assembled the political willpower and leadership to address them,
and gave shape to the policy choices that created a specific narrative for their city. From
a comparative perspective, we argue that cities cannot manage their shrinkage without
support from other levels of government. In other words, a successful response to urban
shrinkage requires multilevel governance to contextualize the locally-based phenomenon,
de-contextualize the role of multilevel politics, and re-contextualize the set of policies and
actions that can be utilized.

Introduction
The urban shrinkage research that has analyzed the historical paths and
outcomes of a select group of shrinking cities (SCs) is relatively rich. A small portion of
these studies has focused on the governance of urban shrinkage and often described in
detail how a specific city or cities battle with their adversity in specific policy contexts.
Now that more empirical literature with a wider geographical coverage has emerged, it
is clear that although the shrinking city is a global phenomenon, policy responses to
urban decline differ, depending on cultural and political contexts. The literature shows
that the role of political willpower and leadership, which work together to shape policy
choices, is strongly connected to the fate of SCs (Pallagst et al., 2014). Therefore, the
value of a cross-national comparison is higher than ever for disentangling how a
shrinking city discourse can lead to policy actions in various contexts, as Mallach et
al. (2017) have emphasized.
Such comparisons should not be limited to identifying the nature of the
institutions involved or the particular policies generated but should also attempt to
understand the contextual factors that ‘move ideas into politics’ (Stone, 1996: 1); only
by doing so can more policy options be generated from past experiences and provide a
wider spectrum for political action. We examined the initiatives of various government
agencies and observed that cities adopt different strategies to untangle their problems
of shrinkage. This article presents an example of international comparative research
by examining three cases of shrinking cities: Fu Xin in China, New Bedford in the

We thank the Department of Urban and Environmental Planning of Tufts University for allowing us to bring our
research to the USA during 2018–2019, where the ideas in this article were conceived. This research was in part
funded by the Fulbright Scholar Program, The General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(project no. 52078197), and the Czech Science Foundation (research grant no. 18-11299S).
© 2021 Urban Research Publications Limited
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 481

USA, and Ústí nad Labem in the Czech Republic. This study of three cases operating
under distinct political frameworks indicates that there may be connections between
the insufficient governance outcomes of these particular shrinking cities. This led to
our efforts to identify the common causes with regard to the operation of multilevel
institutions.
The article is organized as follows. In the literature review, we assembled a
series of notions to use as the conceptual basis for our comparison. These include
the oft-discussed issue of acceptance and recognition of the shrinking condition, the
ambivalent discourse around its governance in a growth-oriented policy context,
and debates between the neoliberal market-oriented approach and the use of
centralized state interventions. Next, the methodology section explains the logic of
the case-oriented comparative method used in this analysis. The case study section
adopts a unified structure: (1) we introduce the perception of shrinkage in each city
as a key starting point; (2) the actions of the central (federal and national) or regional
(local) actors are examined in order to understand their specific operations within
the different cultural and political frameworks; and (3) we assess the formulation of
the policy agenda for the governance of shrinkage, including its emergence, content
and implementation. Finally, we summarize the overall progress and prospects of
the examined cities in our discussions and conclusions, in which we consider
intersections that are either context-based or context-independent. We draw the three
comprehensive evaluations of these specific SCs together by reviewing the impact
of local, regional or national conditions on each city’s governance path, formation
and outcomes. This approach contributes to the general debate within studies on
the contextualization and de-contextualization of specific locally-based experiences
(Haase et al., 2017).

Literature review
Here we present the key notions we extracted from our review of the literature
to form the conceptual basis for our comparison.

—— Acceptance, recognition, and the multilevel governance of urban shrinkage


Urban shrinkage has become a reality for many cities worldwide. Although the
discussion of this proposition is quite settled within academia, the idea of shrinking
cities remains unstable or unpopular among politicians, decision-makers and planning
professionals (Mallach, 2017). Researchers in this field can therefore benefit from
searching outside of their particular academic realm and focusing on local, regional or
national actors and their perspectives on why and how their cities are shrinking. A key
point in the literature is the acceptance and recognition of shrinkage, which comprises
the ability to observe the reality of shrinking and the desire to manage it.
Haase and colleagues (Haase and Rink et al., 2014; Haase and Bernt et al., 2016;
Haase et al., 2017) have conceptualized the various policy responses to shrinkage as
operating on different spatial levels, from local to global, and as struggles between
public and private interests––or in other words, the multilevel governance of urban
shrinkage. Nonetheless, the ability (or willingness) of national, regional and local
actors to observe the reality of shrinkage is not straightforward. Outside academic
debates on the composition and extent of urban shrinkage, it is relatively easy to assess
whether a city is shrinking or growing using simple measures of total population size
or employment statistics. However, the willingness of local players to adapt to the
shrinking mode and to manage it by setting a specific policy agenda is a more complex
story, with many contradictory elements. According to Bernt et al.:

[the] idea of planners simply needing to ‘accept’ shrinkage might be short-


sighted. Rather, we believe that more sensitivity towards policymaking and
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URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC 482

power could bring the issue forward … to make a humble plea for developing
analytical frameworks that have a solid grounding and look at political
and practical issues around shrinkage in a more differentiated way (Bernt
et al., 2014: 1765).

—— A pro-growth mindset and the ‘paradox of confession’


In many cases, local representatives maintain official and mental records of their
cities’ trajectory of decline but speak and write publicly and rhetorically on projected
growth. This is not a sign of ignorance or incompetence, but a sophisticated strategy
adopted from a pragmatic standpoint. For example, regarding Leipzig in Germany, Rink
et al. (2014) state that a city can implement a growth-oriented policy to attract investors
while maintaining a parallel strategy for the management of decline. Rumpel et al. (2013)
noted the same policy orientation for the shrinking city of Ostrava in the Czech Republic.
Accordingly, the ‘paradox of confession’ was proposed. On the one hand, if
regional actors aim to establish proper policies and strategies, they have to accept and
respect the real situation and problems. On the other hand, confessing and underlining
the shrinking mode could discourage individuals, firms and tourists from visiting,
staying or investing in the city. Consequently, this phenomenon would lead to a further
decline. Hollander et al. (2009) highlight the overall cognitive obstacle presented by this
notion that is supported by folk and local-elite wisdom rather than empirical research:
a healthy city always grows whereas only unhealthy cities shrink. Rink et al. (2014:
262) likewise underline the predominant governance orientation for growth and the
formation of ‘pro-growth coalitions’ as ‘relatively stable and overarching coalitions
between elected councilors and private companies’. Pierre (2011: 67) continues this
line of argument, stating that ‘compared with other governance modes, growth or pro-
growth governance is probably the easiest and least challenging to understand’. Other
authors have used negative expressions of the same position, describing the formation
of ‘grant coalitions’ (Bernt, 2009) or ‘shrinkage and stagnation coalitions’ (Haller and
Altrock, 2010) as tools to conserve, for whatever reason, the status quo.
These notions and approaches inspired us to reconsider the motivations of local
actors as they focus on maintaining the positive pro-growth path. The key principle
behind such motivations could be connected to the main sources of finance for the city
budget or specific local interest groups. If the city budget is predominantly dependent
on the size of the city population, the local government would not choose any direction
other than one which attempts to maintain or regain that level of population, even if
the task was difficult. In this case, officials must remain in the pro-growth mindset and
declare it, at least in their external communications. However, if there are other major
sources of finance for the city budget which are independent of population size, such as
the property tax derived from property values, then city representatives can act more
transparently or work with regional and national actors to formulate, promote and
realize common objectives. To extend this argument, if it was beneficial to claim to be
in a disadvantaged position, then it would be possible for the decision-makers of SCs
to make official declarations about a decrease in the city’s population and a reduction
of selected infrastructure or amenities within their strategies and policies, so as to take
real steps toward service improvements.

—— The neoliberal approach, or a policy of consolidationism


Long before the emergence of the shrinking city concept, welfare governance
was the policy framework used for allocating public resources to solve problems related
to urban decline (Pierre, 2011). The continual inflow of funds was channeled from the
national or regional agents (as providers or enablers) to the local governments (as
recipients) through social welfare or social security programs (Gurr and King, 1987).
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 483

However, because of the failure of some highly controversial urban renewal projects
in the USA and the UK in the postwar era, welfare policies that targeted the blighted
inner-city districts were eventually repudiated in tandem with the rise of the neoliberal
pro-market ethos (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2016). Since then, the new logic for the
governance of urban decline has been to find business entrepreneurs among the welfare
recipients. Once fiscal, political and administrative functions had been decentralized
to local and regional bodies, it was expected that the private sector or private–public
partnerships, rather than direct state interventions, would guide urban development
and redevelopment.
The growth of interest in studying shrinking cities since the 1980s suggests that
this neoliberal approach failed to reverse the weak local market of cities that found
themselves in non-growth scenarios, while at the same time enabling the state to opt
out of any direct intervention designed to aid cities or citizens experiencing hardship on
either side of the Atlantic, aside from fixing market dysfunctions or supporting business
plans (Audirac, 2018). Due to the lack of a national policy commitment, ‘the shrinking
cities issue in the USA failed to be acknowledged as a matter of national, as distinct from
regional, policy significance’ (Mallach et al., 2017: 106). Indeed, even though they were
‘under intense (budget) pressure to downsize and rationalize despite increasing social
need’ (Peck, 2015: 7), shrinking cities with socioeconomic disadvantages ‘have never
triggered any meaningful federal engagement’ (Mallach, 2017: 114).
Additionally, outside of the USA and the UK, consolidationist policies remain
optional. Welfare states in Europe––those of Sweden or Germany, for example––have
used substantial national public resources to address, or ‘bail out’ (Bernt, 2019), regional
or local problems (Haase et al., 2017). In post-socialist European countries, the state-
local ties based on a dependency for financial resources were never fully severed,
especially in the shrinking cities (Rink et al., 2014). In eastern Asia, the centralist
Japanese government has a long history of applying nationalized welfare services to
assist its seniors and children during times of overall population decline, although
the word ‘shrinking’ is carefully avoided in national discourse (Martinez-Fernandez
et al., 2016; Hattori et al., 2017). In China, the economic restructuring programs for
heavily resource-based cities were mainly initiated and directed by China’s top-down
administrative structure (He et al., 2017; Yang and Dunford, 2018), and the regeneration
programs for the old villages, old urban areas and old factories in China’s expanding
metropolises were directed by so-called ‘state entrepreneurialism’, meaning the use
of market instruments and means to achieve the state’s strategic goals (Wu, 2018).
Considering the uneven provision of these top-down preferential policies (Chien and
Wu, 2011), it could be argued that the central state’s interventions actually caused the
shrinkage of some cities in China (Li and Mykhnenko, 2018; Zhou et al., 2019; Jin and
Sui, 2020).

—— Cross-case comparative research


When discussing the policies, strategies and actors involved in the governance
of shrinking cities (Albecker and Fol, 2014; Bernt et al. 2014; Rink et al., 2014) from
a cross-case perspective, the focus has recently been redirected onto discrepancies
between the planning idea and forms of implementation (Rhodes, 2019). Far more
controversies over existing policies or their limitations were found than examples
of best practice from a wide variety of institutional contexts and political dynamics
(Aalbers and Bernt,  2019). For example, Bernt  (2019) has demonstrated that the
‘Stadtumbau Ost’ program in Germany, commonly regarded as the showcase of a
centralized proactive policy response to shrinkage, was influenced by private business
interests in both its formulation and implementation. Béal et al. (2019) similarly
reported that the locally-based ‘rightsizing’ strategies in shrinking cities in France
were patchy, unstable and heterogenous.
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484

(source: Maps produced by the authors)


FIGURE 1  Maps of Fu Xin (left), New Bedford (middle), and Ústí nad Labem (right)
URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 485

With regard to examining the governance of SCs in various contexts, Mallach


et al. (2017) highlighted the significant differences between the larger cultural and
political frameworks within which policy responses emerged. Using the examples of
Japan (a collectivist culture), the USA (an individualist one), and Germany (somewhere
in between), they argued that the basic form of government––particularly in terms of
the relationship between the central government and sub-national governmental units
(i.e. local or municipal governments)––affects whether a discourse on urban shrinkage
can lead to specific policies and actions. How the shrinking condition is identified,
problematized and de-contextualized is the critical issue in the policy formulation
process. We therefore posit that the application of this extended scope of cross-national
comparison should not be limited to the developed countries in the global North.
In this article, we present a comparative case study on the governance of three
shrinking cities: Fu Xin in China, New Bedford in the USA, and Ústí nad Labem in the
Czech Republic (Figure 1). All three cities have experienced negative growth in their
economy and population that has led to extensive policy actions against shrinkage.
However, in all three cases these policies failed to reverse the trend, and the prospect
of a continuous decline remains. Set within dramatically different contexts, the three
cross-continental cases reflect the governance of urban shrinkage under centralist (Fu
Xin), localist (New Bedford) and indirectly centralist (Ústí nad Labem) approaches. Yet
in all three cases the outcome was the same, and the policy responses implemented
failed to halt the cities’ shrinkage. The goal of the current analysis is to explain this
common outcome by identifying its common causes.

—— Methodology
We refer to the methodology presented in the comparativist literature, such as
that of Charles C. Ragin (1987) or Adam Przeworski and Henry Teune (1970), to compare
our three city cases by applying the logic of the case-oriented comparative method
(Figure 2). The shrinking cities A, B and C are different geographically, socially and
politically. They all implemented extensive policies and actions to target the problems of
shrinkage, but they continue to experience further depopulation and economic decline.
The goal of our comparison is to identify the common causes behind this phenomenon
and thereby answer this question: what are the causally relevant similarities between
cities A, B and C which explain their common outcome?
A combination of methods was used by the authors, who come from the three
case study regions. The Fu Xin research was based on an analysis of key strategic
documents related to its revitalization programs, combined with observations made
during a series of visits between 2012 and 2015. The New Bedford research was based on
a close reading of more than 12 city plans and reports; analyses of demographic data from
multiple local, state, federal employment, housing, and population sources; interviews
with more than 12 local officials and community leaders; and three focus groups with
residents (Hollander, 2018). The Ústí nad Labem research used a mixed-methodology
approach, comprising semi-structured thematic interviews with policymakers and
local leaders (representing key policy discourses over the last 30 years) as well as a
qualitative content analysis of urban development strategies and planning documents
at the supranational, national and local levels.
The three cases share a similar reversed U-curve of population development
(Table 1), but differ in terms of both geographical context and political conditions. The
engagement of governmental institutions, bureaucratic and entrepreneurial actors at
the national, regional and local levels varies considerably between the three shrinking
cities (see Table 2).
Post-reform China has usually been portrayed as having a neoliberal political
economic system (Harvey, 2005), in which local governments are incentivized to act
proactively and entrepreneurially for the expansion or regeneration of their cities.
Case A Circumstance A Existing Notions
• acceptance, recognition,
Fu Xin in China Centralism and governance
• growth-oriented policy Examining the
Common Outcome Case B Circumstance B • paradox of confession governance of
Ústí nad Labem in Indirect Centralism • pro-growth mindset
The insufficient governance shrinking cities
the Czech Republic • neoliberal pro-market
of shrinking cities through
economies
• lack of a national policy
international cross-
Case C Circumstance C
commitment case comparisons
To explain the New Bedford in Localism • consolidationist policy
common outcome the USA

Pros Cons
Case A • Political willpower is strong • Dramatic fluctuation in economic
Fu Xin in China • Resources are plentiful growth
• Failure to reboot the local economy Key Argument
• Short-term effects The inability of cities to
Case B • Acceptance is not a problem • Pro-growth mentality is still popular address shrinkage
Ústí nad Labem in • Multilevel governance • Failure to formulate, promote and without some form of
the Czech Republic structure already in place implement policies and actions relevant support from other levels
URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC

to the context of government

Case C • Recognition of multiple • Failure to solve the significant


New Bedford in voices overarching and structural problem
the USA • Oriented to quality of life • Lack of visionary planning ideas
rather than growth

FIGURE 2  The conceptual framework for this comparative research (source: Authors’ research)
486

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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 487

TABLE 1  City-wide total populations in the case studies, 1970–2010

% Change
between peak
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year and 2010
Fu Xin 1,459,000* 1,640,000* 1,841,168 1,889,774 1,819,339 –3.9
New Bedford 101,777 98,478 99,922 93,768 95,072 –7.1
Ústí nad Labem 79,544 89,272 98,108 95,436 94,793 –3.5

*Rounded to nearest thousand.


SOURCES: Statistical yearbooks published by Fu Xin Statistical Office; statistical yearbooks published by the Czech Statistical
Office; US Census Bureau State & County QuickFacts, 2010 and 2000; US Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1; US
Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary Files 1 and 3; 1970 and 1980 data from the National Historical Geographic Information
System URL http://www.nhgis.org or US Census Bureau files

TABLE 2  Main governance actors in the case studies

Cases Supranational/national actors Subnational actors Local actors


Fu Xin National government/State-owned Provincial government Local government
enterprises (SOEs)
New Bedford Federal government State government City government/Private
sector
Ústí nad Labem European Union (EU)/National Regional government City government/Private
government sector

SOURCE: Authors’ research

However, many shrinking cities in China, especially resource-depleted ones, are facing
the challenge of social inequality alongside economic reform, which has triggered direct
interventions from the central and provincial governments. A combination of centralist
welfare governance and localized neoliberal urbanism––or ‘state entrepreneurialism’
(He and Wu, 2009; Wu, 2018)––has shaped local policy responses to urban shrinkage.
Compared with other countries, governance in the SCs in the USA is largely
based on the ideology of localism. Mallach et al. (2017) reflected that the major role of
local initiatives is a distinctive characteristic of the governance of shrinking cities in
the decentralized US political system. Weaver et al. (2017) explained that pro-growth
policies in US cities, including SCs, depend on large-scale development projects,
occasionally massive demolition programs, and community-based initiatives; this is a
result of the devolution of power to local governments, inter-governmental competition,
and public entrepreneurship.
Laze (2009) used the term ‘indirect centralism’ to explain post-socialist urban
governance in Central European cities, including those of the Czech Republic. ‘If cities
have a weak local economy, they are pushed to seek other potential resources; in this
situation, central government’s financial resources are most likely to become the most
pursued resources’ (Rink et al., 2014: 263). The governance of SCs in the Czech Republic
involves a complex interplay of making local issues significant at the national level and
obtaining resources through political leadership or personal relationships from the
central government or European Union (EU).
Stepan and Müller (2012) argue that the scope of governance is defined in
relation to (1) policy (re)formulation (i.e. whether the actors involved in the
decision-making come exclusively from the state, civil society, or both); (2) policy
operation (i.e. whether social policies are steered by a bureaucratic, private, or hybrid
body); and (3) policy supervision (i.e. whether the legislation, regulation or evaluation
of an operation is carried out by the state, private stakeholders or mixed bodies).
Within this tripolar scope of governance structures lie the three case studies of this
article: Fu Xin, New Bedford and Ústí nad Labem (see Table 3).
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URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC 488

TABLE 3  Main governance structures in the case studies

Policy
Cases Approaches (re)formulation Policy operation Policy supervision
Fu Xin Centralism Exclusively state-led Bureaucratic/Hybrid State/Mixed bodies
New Bedford Localism Autonomous (civil) Private/Hybrid Mixed bodies/Private
society stakeholders
Ústí nad Labem Indirect centralism Coordinated (state Hybrid Mixed bodies
and society)

SOURCE: Authors’ research

Case studies
On the basis of the aforementioned contexts, we present our exploration of the
conditions and policies in the three SCs, using their multilevel actors and structures as
the analytical framework.

—— Fu Xin, Liaoning Province, China


Fu Xin, a city in Liaoning province in the northeastern industry base of China,
was named a major coal and power production base in the first five-year plan (1953–1957),
which directed national investments into the region to build a new industrial system. Its
major coal mines were depleted in the early 1990s, and the remaining resources are no
longer cost-effective for further excavation. Resource depletion is just one feature of this
particular case. Since the launch of China’s economic reforms in 1979, the new market
economy has challenged the Soviet-style industrial systems of the northeastern region,
transforming it into ‘the rust belt of China’. By 2001, more than 129,000 workers (36.7%
of the total workforce) had been laid off from jobs that were either directly or indirectly
linked to coal and energy production, and the unemployment rate reached 7.0%. In
2000, approximately one-fourth of the urban population and half of the rural population
was living below the national poverty line. Furthermore, the decades-long mining
activities had caused major environmental problems, such as ecological degradation,
ground subsidence and underground-water pollution, requiring urgent solutions. The
interwoven economic, social and environmental downturn caused the total population
of the city to decrease by 3.9% between 2000 and 2010, from 1.89 million to 1.82 million.
Fu Xin thus became one of the typical SCs in the old industrial region of the northeast.
In 2001, Fu Xin was officially listed in the first batch of 44 ‘resource-depleted
cities’ by the National State Council, as part of a national strategy for revitalizing
northeastern China. Since then, the city has started to receive support in the form of
aid programs, funds, and policy initiatives from several agencies at the national and
provincial level. Using the new projects and funds allocated to the region, Fu Xin has
managed to maintain a double-digit GDP growth rate between 2002 and 2013. The
investment-driven revitalization of Fu Xin peaked after 2008 as a result of the ‘four
trillion yuan stimulus package’ designed to expand domestic demand and so offset the
slump in exports during the global economic crisis. Since 2013, however, concerned
about the financial risks of a large-scale stimulus package, the central government has
become more cautious concerning loans issued to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), such
as those that once financed the Fu Xin Wind Power project and the Fu Xin Substitute
Natural Gas project. As a result, in 2014, Fu Xin’s GDP growth rate immediately turned
negative again. The repeated assistance programs introduced by the national and
provincial governments through preferential policies and projects has caused dramatic
fluctuations in the annual GDP growth rate in Fu Xin, symbolized by a peak (+33%) in
2011. However, the total population of the region remains stable, with a minor decline
(-3%) between 1995 and 2017, suggesting the other reality of a decreasing employment
base and population alongside the economic revitalization.
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 489

For Fu Xin, although the label ‘resource-depleted city’ sounds a little depressing,
it is rewarding in terms of providing finance to the local government. China’s long
tradition of using inter-governmental transfer payments to rebalance developing and
under-developed administrations particularly favors shrinking cities such as Fu Xin.
According to the Local Government Annual Budget Report (2012–2018) released by the
Finance Bureau of Fu Xin,1 grants from the higher authorities (i.e. Liaoning province and
the national government) accounted for 50% of the city’s local revenue in 2018. Since
2012, this figure has been consistently increasing, from 40% to 60%; consequently, the
local government is now more reliant than ever on these bodies to provide funds for the
city’s public services and utilities.
The local government of Fu Xin has made mostly unsuccessful attempts to
increase its revenue through land leasing. In the Master Plan of Fu Xin (2001–2020)2
prepared in 2009,2 the Yulong Newtown Project was proposed, which is a 55 km2 new
urban expansion to the north of Fu Xin city with a plan to accommodate 300,000 new
residents, despite Fu Xin’s shrinking population. The development of the new town was
slower than expected. As an indicator of the state of the local economy, the revenue from
land leasing (i.e. local government income gained by transferring state-owned land use
to real-estate or industrial usage) never exceeded 20% of the total local income stream,
which decreased from 18.47% to 3.67% between 2012 and 2018.
Because of the benefits of being part of the national revitalization program,
accepting the status of being ‘resource-depleted’ is not problematic for Fu Xin. However,
calling the municipality a ‘shrinking city’ is less acceptable to the local officials. Their
reluctance is not simply due to embarrassment or a denial of failure but is based on a
more practical consideration. The population size is one key parameter in calculating the
annual budgetary expenditure of the local government. Hence, a shrinking population
means a shrinking budget with a smaller amount of transfer payments from the higher
authorities, which could potentially worsen the financial situation of the city.
In Fu Xin, many transfer payments and fully funded projects were pulled in
through programs with a ‘green economy’ and ‘innovative technology’ label. SCs are
more likely to receive investments in new energy, ecological restoration and urban
infrastructure than in other (albeit urgently needed) improvements to their citizens’
quality of life. The short-term effect of reversing the economic downturn is similar to
‘applying an electric shock to a dying heart’, to quote an analogy collected during one of
the field trips. However, if such high-end technological sectors are unable to reboot the
local economy and create employment, then any sudden economic growth for the SCs
is likely to diminish over the long term as policy changes at the national and provincial
level––as occurred in Fu Xin.
In the case of Fu Xin, centralist governance characterized by direct interventions
dominated the policy discourse. To rebalance regional development and maintain
social stability, the central and provincial governments allocated more resources and
preferential policies to the disadvantaged administrations, which were mostly shrinking
cities. Considering that top-down policy support and direct aid now has few advocates
in the West, Fu Xin (or any other resource-depleted city in China) serves as an extreme
example in terms of large-scale state intervention.

—— New Bedford, Massachusetts, USA


Situated along the southeastern coast of Massachusetts, about a 1.5-hour
drive from Boston, New Bedford was once the whaling capital of the world. After
nine decades of depopulation, the city today has fewer homes, jobs and residents
than it did in the 1920s. Despite experiencing a loss of jobs and individuals, the city

1 http://czj.fuxin.gov.cn/zwgklist.jsp?id=11836
2 http://www.fuxin.gov.cn/newsdetail.jsp?id=94578
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URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC 490

thrives in many ways and has maintained its status as the cultural, governmental and
economic center of southeastern Massachusetts, with a population of 1.7 million in
2012, according to the US Census.3 A careful review of the demographic and housing
characteristics of the city confirms a larger discourse of depopulation and housing
abandonment. The city experienced a steady trend toward fewer residents, smaller
households, and under-occupied housing units from 1970 to 2000, followed by a
modest uptick in population in 2010. From 1970 to 2000, the city’s population density
decreased by 7.0%, from 1,965 persons per km2 to 1,836.
This decrease in the population was generally accompanied by higher poverty
levels and an influx of African Americans and non-White Hispanics. The central portions
of New Bedford had the highest population in 1970, and that population severely
declined in the following decades (except for 1980–1990, when the central portions of
the city grew). However, those changes across decades and across neighborhoods have
been far from consistent. Altogether, the demographic data portray an ordinary city:
one that experiences both growth and decline, as well as stagnation (Hollander, 2018).
What was New Bedford’s response, then, in response to these changes? With
no federal support and only a small amount of state aid to ‘keep the lights on’ in City
Hall, the policy response from the local government has been to manage the change
through rightsizing, also called smart shrinkage (Popper and Popper, 2002; Hollander
et al., 2009; Hollander and Nemeth, 2011). Prior research (Hollander, 2018) demonstrates
that the city has effectively rightsized its built form to match a smaller population. In
some areas, the city’s policies have proven to be a failure. In others, the city government
was successful. What matters is that New Bedford––and by that, we mean city officials,
community leaders, business interests and residents––has managed demographic change
through a diverse mix of policy strategies, including smart shrinkage. The rightsizing
was rarely intentional or part of a comprehensive, well-thought-out plan. Instead, the
rightsizing process appears to have been a natural response by individuals, businesses
and government agencies to a very bad condition: a shrinking economy and population.
Working within a local government framework with little state or federal guidance or
support, New Bedford reduced its physical form and economic structures to match a
smaller city (rightsizing)––largely fed by pro-market city government policies (e.g. adopt-
a-lot and zoning) and the profit motivation of property owners to find new, non-housing
uses for their properties (primarily parking) (Hollander, 2018).
The decline in New Bedford’s employment base has meant that the desirability
of the city’s residential neighborhoods has substantially decreased. Therefore, city
leaders attempted to reverse this process to attract and retain more firms so as to make
residential neighborhoods more desirable. They worked on housing rehabilitation and
renovation to make the housing stock more attractive, and enhanced the enforcement
of building codes and went after deadbeat landlords.
Hollander  (2018) found a wide range of other policies that were also
implemented in New Bedford to improve, for example, pedestrians’ experience, parks,
green spaces, the creative economy, tourism, transportation, sustainability, and historic
preservation. In the context of smart shrinkage, official city documents also called
for a more rightsized infrastructure, improved land-use policies, more recreational
and agriculture uses, and a cultural or heritage re-imaging of what type of a city New
Bedford is and can be.
Together, the reports and interviews demonstrate a city government attempting
to play the conventional economic development game of chasing industry and betting
on big ‘game-changing’ projects, while investing money and time in a genuine effort
to decrease the city’s housing density and find new non-housing uses for formerly
residential structures and land.

3 http://www.census.gov/
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 491

—— Ústí nad Labem, Ústecký Region, Czech Republic


The city of Ústí nad Labem lies in the northwest of the Czech Republic, a one-
hour drive from the country’s capital Prague, and only two hours from Berlin. In the
nineteenth century, northwestern Bohemia captured a very early wave of the industrial
revolution and became an important economic base of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
During the communist era, the region represented a cornerstone of the Czechoslovak
economy, mainly because of its mining and chemical industries. Consequently, the
blue-collar workforce is large. Following the Velvet Revolution in 1989, the local
economy suffered from the gradual depletion of natural resources, an unsuccessful
post-communist transition, overspecialization of the embedded industrial and
knowledge base, and the lack of a skilled labor force, which have together resulted in
regional decline and marginalization in both relative and absolute terms. The city has
failed to reposition itself within the post-communist version of capitalism in Central
Europe––described by some authors as ‘dependent market economies’ (Nölke and
Vliegenthart, 2009). Today, the city is the regional capital, attempting to find a new
identity, position and pathway for development. Ústí nad Labem represents a typical
shrinking city in Central Europe.
Since the 1990s, the city’s population, jobs and production have been declining.
The decline is more severe in regard to the economic downturn and distress in the labor
market than the shrinking population size. According to data published by the Czech
Statistical Office (2010), the city lost 3.5% of its population (3,315 persons) between 1990
and 2010, and its total employment figure decreased by 13,000. Approximately 4,000
jobs in the chemical industry and 3,000 jobs in mining have vanished (Koutský, 2011). If
we look beyond the quantitative data, we find that the relatively mild population decline
obscures two important qualitative features of this demographic change: first, the Czech
capital Prague (in Central Bohemia) receives many daily and weekly commuters from
the outer regions, and many of the city’s residents conduct all aspects of their life in the
capital or elsewhere; second, the low prices in the housing market and the substantial
supply of properties (mainly flats in public housing projects built in the 1970s and 1980s)
attract many home buyers who are socially and economically excluded. Many do not
participate in the labor market because they do not have the necessary qualifications,
skills or experience (as commonly seen in ‘weak market’ cities). This context is the same
for both the regional and local economy. The local market is very weak and only a few, if
any, businesses remain competitive within the global value chains. The lack of attractive
job opportunities in the well-paid and knowledge-based sectors has forced many skilled
professionals to leave and seek employment elsewhere.
The governance of shrinkage in Ústí nad Labem is a product of complex,
multilayered and overlapping activities by public and private players at the regional
and city level. Since the early 1990s, there has been a strong political drive to emancipate
local actors as part (and consequence) of the democratization process (Roubínek
et al., 2015). Several important formal and legal development entities have been
established at the local level, and many competent professionals have been hired. A
new comprehensive development plan was devised with a focus on the revitalization
of the city center. Several well-prepared community development initiatives have
likewise been implemented, and a number of projects have been completed by respected
architects and city planners. These achievements have helped redefine the city, which
had long been called ‘ugly and dirty’ (Koutský et al., 2014).
However, struggling with the problems arising from the post-socialist inheritance
means that enthusiasm for strictly local governance has gradually diminished. Local
authorities have tended to stick with pre-reform managerial habits and prefer to use
bureaucratic procedures in seeking practical solutions (Hlaváček et al., 2016). As in the
past, corruption scandals have revealed the clientelistic ties established between local
businessmen and administrators. A symbolic example of the setbacks experienced in
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URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC 492

the late 1990s was provided by the city council’s attempt to develop and sell new, low-
quality, overpriced apartments, which have remained almost completely vacant since
their construction.
By the dawn of the millennium, the state (at the national level) again became the
key player in attempting to resolve complex local and regional problems, but this time, it
worked closely with the policies of the EU. Shifting the responsibility for development
‘back to the upper level’ in Ústí nad Labem mirrored a general trend in the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe (Rumpel et al., 2013). Within this new context, where the
state and the EU define the parameters, the key factors for effective local government
are: (1) the city’s competence in cooperating with the upper-level authorities and
implementing central policies using local solutions; (2) its ability to incorporate the
bottom-up formulated local policies with the top-down generated national agenda; and
(3) the ability of local representatives to find and use external funds and instruments.
In other words, the local governments must have strong leadership, ambition and the
capability to negotiate with actors from other administrative levels in formulating a
governance approach, which Rink et al. (2014) called ‘indirect centralism’.
In the case of Ústí nad Labem, this ideal conjunction was not achieved. Unlike
other large cities in the Czech Republic, the local players were unsuccessful in changing
the course of shrinkage by using external resources. Notably, a 34 million euro loan
from the European Investment Bank was spent on improving the infrastructure in the
city center (with new pavements and utilities, redesign of the main square, and a new
cableway to the city’s viewpoint), but despite this, the city’s development plan remains
vague and neither reflects the overall problems of shrinkage nor stipulates any clear
strategies, projects or initiatives to solve them.
Although it has been empirically proven that the city has been shrinking since
the 1990s, its representatives continue to maintain a pro-growth mentality, or at least a
course of wishful thinking. In the latest development plan, under a vague vision called
‘the city connecting nature and industry’, it is predominantly ‘the-more-the-better’ type
of indicators that are the focus of development. There is a logical basis to this strategy,
since 80% of the city government’s annual revenue comes by way of money transferred
from the central government, the amount of which is calculated according to population
size (derived from elementary school attendance levels). None of the qualitative criteria
are taken into account for determining the amount of money to be transferred from
the state to local governments. Less than 10% of the total local revenue comes from
property tax, which is independent of the state and is calculated according to the size
of an apartment or house rather than the property’s value. Thus, any policy that aims to
increase local revenue needs to be oriented toward attracting more individuals into the
city or building as many spacious properties as possible. Such a policy framework is not
a promising starting point for implementing smart shrinkage governance.

Discussion
Table 4 presents a cross-case comparison of the key findings in the three case
studies, which we used to examine the acceptance and recognition of urban shrinkage
through a multilevel governance framework.
In comparing the three case studies with their centralist, localist and indirectly
centralist approaches, we found that each city’s shrinkage provided the local government
not only with the willpower to act, but also a distinct perspective through which to
contextualize the problem; namely, as resource-depletion in Fu Xin; as demographic
change in New Bedford; and as economic transformation in Ústí nad Labem. Once the
problems of shrinkage were properly accepted, the subsequent adaptation, management
and agenda-setting of the specific policies for each context followed a trajectory that
was also defined by it and which then advanced with a high path dependency. It was
quite natural for Fu Xin, whose prosperity peaked at the time of its glorious era under
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 493

TABLE 4  Summary of the key findings

Fu Xin New Bedford Ústí nad Labem


Acceptance and recognition
(1) Ability to recognize Economic downturn, Fewer residents, smaller Degradation and
shrinkage through context- high unemployment rate, households, under-occupied marginalization of the region
based problems pollution, declining total housing, higher levels of economically and politically,
population, dimming glory poverty, and an influx of job losses, and long-distance
of the past, and rising social African Americans and non- out-commuting workers
instability White Hispanics.
(2) Motivation for adapting Being listed as one of the Accepting the demographic Shrinkage viewed
to shrinking mode and typical ‘resource-depleted change, the local as a challenge in the
managing it by setting a cities’ government must manage transformation of many
specific agenda the change through businesses from a centrally
rightsizing, also called smart planned to an open-market
shrinkage. economy.
Multilevel governance
(1) Policy (re)formulation Programs and policies City leaders and the local Complex problems in
formulated mainly at the government expected to transformation to be solved
central and provincial levels be visionary in managing by the local authorities
demographic change before being returned to the
national level
(2) Operation Funds, aid and projects A mixture of policies and City administration
designated to the region strategies implemented maintained a pro-growth
through national or with the cooperation of city mentality, first in coalition
provincial programs; state- officials, community leaders, with local businesses and
owned enterprises involved business interests and later in cooperation with the
with financial support from residents national government and
the central banks the EU
(3) Supervision Operations of the local Effectiveness of policies Supervision of public
government or agencies evaluated by market policy shifts responsibility
supervised, monitored and responses; government from the local ‘back to the
audited by the national or actions legitimized upper level’ (i.e. national
provincial government through local participatory institutions and the EU)
democratic processes

SOURCE: Authors’ research

a planned economy, to request aid from the central government. In New Bedford,
successfully adopting the idea of rightsizing or smart shrinkage was a remarkable
change of mindset within the highly pro-growth urban policy of the USA. For Ústí nad
Labem, the city’s ambiguous positioning in regard to governance––swinging between
centralism and localism––typified what was a general challenge for post-socialist cities
in transformation.
If we de-contextualize the policymaking of these three shrinking cities, their
responses to urban decline fall within the scope of multilevel politics. In China, the
revitalization of the northeastern region aims toward a more equal redistribution of
economic growth benefits at the national level, where public policies are formulated
and supervised directly by the higher authorities and operationalized by the local
governments in coalition with state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In the Czech Republic,
the strong process of local emancipation since the early 1990s has led to a local method
of governance. City authorities were bundled into the so-called new regionalism
governance of the EU and made to cooperate with either private investors or (trans)
national institutions in search of resources. In New Bedford, obscured by the overriding
‘urban crisis’ narrative (Mallach, 2017) and the arguable failure of urban renewal
programs in the USA, direct interventions by the federal government are unpopular
nowadays. It was therefore the cooperation between city officials, community leaders,
business interests and residents that was responsible for reformulating, operating and
supervising new urban policies in the city.
In the light of these contextualized problems and de-contextualized cultural-
political patterns, the set of policies and actions in each case can be understood as a
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URBAN SHRINKAGE IN CHINA, THE USA AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC 494

re-contextualization of the shrinkage problem. In Fu Xin, being listed in the national


program of 44 ‘resource-depleted cities’ by the National State Council became the
gateway to further actions. As a result of adapting the democratization process in Ústí
nad Labem, it was possible to establish a number of formal and legal entities with
responsibility for local development. In formalizing the smart shrinkage of New Bedford,
the essential selling point of the strategy was to find local solutions for local problems.
Referring to features of governance, the cases of China and the Czech Republic were
triggered by the urge to rebalance regional development. Both Fu Xin and Ústí nad
Labem had to strive to obtain a large part of their local revenue from higher authorities.
In the USA, most shrinking cities work on building a mutual support system among local
actors. In New Bedford, the strategy of supporting the market by promoting economic
and physical adjustments was clear; the real challenge was how to find the resources to
implement these policies and turn the vision into reality.

Conclusions
Alongside the many large-N comparisons based on quantitative analysis and
single-case studies using qualitative methods, this article offers a small-N comparative
study of the wider cultural and political framework. All three cases discussed in the
article––Fu Xin, New Bedford and Ústí nad Labem––partially accepted the problem
of shrinkage, but each recognized the problem differently, implementing a variety of
policies and actions according to their unique political context.
In the radical centralist case of Fu Xin in China, the intensive top-down
interventions were managed in order to assemble sufficient political willpower and
financial resources and/or preferential policies, which most SCs desperately needed.
However, in the absence of adequate local leadership and actors, the short-term
economic growth that was supported by these funds and projects failed to reboot the
local economy and employment; the effects were thus once-only and short-term. The
problem was a lack of contextualization.
In the case of New Bedford in the USA, the localist approach was commendable
for explicitly recognizing multiple voices and orienting local policies to improve the
quality of life rather than growth. Its policy actions of smart shrinkage and rightsizing
the abandoned buildings, land and facilities helped profit-motivated property owners
to respond aggressively to changes afoot in the city. This rightsizing has helped New
Bedford adjust to the broader structural demographic and economic shifts underway
in the region. Although the rightsizing strategies allowed New Bedford to weather
change effectively without requiring economic and population growth, these local
policies did not have much direct impact in resisting these shifts. What was missing
was de-contextualization.
Finally, in transforming Ústí nad Labem in the Czech Republic, the acceptance of
shrinkage was not a problem in itself, considering the city’s losses in terms of population,
employment and production. The city’s governance requires a series of complex,
multilayered and overlapping actions by local, regional, national and supranational
agents. The reason that a pro-growth mentality remained the only viable option
in this case is that the multilevel governance bodies did not formulate, promote or
implement policies and actions that were appropriate to the context. The absence of
re-contextualization was the problem here.
Therefore, the case studies of the three different contexts displayed a similar
outcome of insufficient responses to the problem of shrinkage, indicating the inability
of cities to address shrinkage without support from other levels of government. Their
experiences demonstrate that the governance of shrinking cities requires multilevel
coordination to contextualize the phenomenon, de-contextualize the role of multilevel
politics, and re-contextualize the national, regional or local bodies responsible for
relevant policies and actions. We observed that the political agenda-setting for shrinking
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ZHOU, KOUTSKÝ AND HOLLANDER 495

cities required more than a mayor ticking a box to ignore, deny or accept the problem.
Instead, it is about how the local governments accept and recognize the problems
of shrinkage within their specific context and then assemble the political willpower,
resources and leadership through multilevel politics to shape the potential policies and
actions that form the specific narrative at higher levels of government, so as to respond
to the problem at the local level.
These three cases represent the centralist, localist and indirectly centralist
approaches to governing shrinkage, which can also be referred to as ‘state
entrepreneurialism’, ‘neoliberalism’ and ‘post-socialism’ in the current academic
debates. However, as a result of discussing them within these discrete categories, the
dynamic relationships between actors and actions involved in multilevel governance
become partially undermined and obscured. Our investigations led to the same
conclusion in all three cases: that effective policies have to operate at different spatial
levels and in accordance with multiple public and private interests. To be effective,
initiatives in the governance of SCs require more sophisticated policy instruments
which can overcome the limitations of predefined ideological paradigms. Therefore, the
discussion of expanding policy options for the successful multilevel governance of urban
transformation could further benefit from comparing experiences in other contexts and
cross-referencing them with cases across a wider geographic and political spectrum.

Kai Zhou, Department of Urban and Rural Planning, School of Architecture, Hunan
University, Changsha, 410082 China, zhoukai_nju@hotmail.com

Jaroslav Koutský, Department of Regional studies and Public Administration,


Faculty of Social and Economic Studies, Jan Evangelista Purkyně University, Ústí nad
Labem, Czech Republic, jaro.koutsky@gmail.com

Justin B. Hollander, Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning, Graduate


School of Arts and Sciences, Tufts University, 97 Talbot Ave, Medford, MA 02155,
USA, justin.hollander@tufts.edu

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