(Problem 1)

Solution

Both pumps are identical, it is reasonable to assume that they have the same probability of failing, that
is P (#1 fails)=P(#2 fails).

The probability that at least one pump fails is:

P (fail > 0) = p (1fails) + p(2fails) – p(1 & 2 fail )

0.1 = p (1fails) + p(2fails) – 0.04

p (1fails) + p(2fails) = 0.14

Both pumps fail at the same rate, the probability that pump #1 will fail during the pump design life

2x p (1fails) = 0.14

P (1fails) = 0.07 = 7%

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(Problem 2)
Samples of a cast aluminum part are classified on the basis of surface finish (in micro inches) and edge
finish. The results of 100 parts are summarized as follows:

Edge finish

Let A denote the event that a sample has excellent surface finish, and let B denote the event that a
sample has excellent length. If a part is selected at random, determine the following probabilities:

a) P (A) _ b) P (B) _ c) P (𝐴′) _ d) P (A⋃𝐵) _ e) P (A ⋂ 𝐵) _ f) P (𝐴′ ⋃𝐵)

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 Solution
82
a- P (A)= =0.82
100
90
b- P (B)= =0.90
100

c- P (A’) =1-0.28=0.18

d- P (AUB) =P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)=0.82+0.9- 0.8=0.92

e- P (A∩B )=0.8

f- P (À̀̀̀̀̀ ,U B)=P(A,)+P(B)-p(A,∩B)

P (A’∩B) =0.1

P (A’UB) =0.18+0.9-0.1=0.98

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(Problem 3)
Wastewater treatment. The wastewater from an industrial plant requires treatment before disposal in
the sea. This process consists of three sequential stages. For simplicity, define these stages as primary,
secondary, and tertiary treatments, respectively. The result for each stage can be rated as
unsatisfactory, incomplete, and satisfactory. Denote with Ak the event that the kth stage of the
treatment process is unsatisfactory, with Bk the event that it is incomplete, and with Ck the event that it
is satisfactory. The associated probabilities are given in the following table:

Further, assume that the three stages of the process are stochastically independent. If the satisfactory
overall treatment requires that none of the three stages is unsatisfactory and at least two of these
stages are satisfactory, what is the probability of this event?

Solution
The solution can be achieved in one of these four cases

K1→Bk1 , k2→Ck2 , k3→Ck3

P1=[0.3*0.5*0.4]=0.06

K1→Ck1→ k2→Ck2 →k3→Ck3

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P2=[0.6*0.5*0.6]=0.15

K1→Ck1 , k2→Bk2 →k3→Ck3

P3=[0.6*0.3*0.4]=0.072

K1→Ck1 , k2→Ck2 →k3 , Ck3

P4=[0.6*0.5*0.4]=0.12

P(x) = P1+ P2+ P3+ P4=0.06+0.15+0.072+0.12

P(x) =0.402

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

(Problem 4)
Highway pavement Before any 250-m length of a pavement is accepted by the State Highway
Department, the thickness of a 30-cm is monitored by an ultrasonic instrument to verify compliance to
specification. Each section is rejected if the measured thickness is less than 10 cm; otherwise, the entire
section is accepted. From past experience, the State Highway engineer knows that 85 percent of all
sections constructed by the contractor comply with specifications. However, the reliability of ultrasonic
thickness testing is only 75 percent, so that there is a 25 percent chance of erroneous conclusions based
on the determination of thickness with ultrasonic.

(1) What is the probability that a poorly constructed section is accepted on the basis of the ultrasonic
test?

(2) What is the probability that if a section is well constructed, it will be rejected on the basis of the
ultrasonic test?

Solution
0.25∗0.15
1- = = 0.005
0.25∗0.15+0.75∗0.85

0.25∗0.85
2- = = 0.65
0.25∗0.85+0.75∗0.15

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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(Problem 5)
Relationship between rainfall and runoff. Annual rainfall is usually normally distributed over many
river basins around the world. In a particular catchment, annual rainfall X has a mean of 1000 mm and a
standard deviation of 200 mm. The annual runoff Y is related to the rainfall as follows: Y = 100+0.4X
Specify the complete distribution of Y. What is the probability that Y will be less than 350 mm in a year?

Solution
E(X) = 1000 , VAR (X) = 2002 mm2

Y=100+0.4X

E(Y) = 100 + 0.4E(X) = 500 mm

Var (y) = 0.4 var (x) = 0.42 x 2002 mm2

Pr (y < 350 ) = -1.875

= 1 -0.96961 = 0.03

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

(Problem 6)
Stream pollution.

Traces of toxic wastes from an unknown source are found in a stream. From tests made on the water
the mean concentration is found to be 1 mg/L. What is the probability that the concentration of the
pollutant will be in the range 0.5 to 2 mg/L assuming the distribution is (a) exponential (b) normal?

Solution
exponential

Fx(2) = 1-e-2/1 = 1 – 0.13533

Fx(0.5) = 1-e-0.5/1 = 1 – 0.60653

Fx(2) - Fx(0.5) = 0.4712

Normal

Z1 = (2-1) = 1

Z2 = (0.5-1) = -0.5

Ꝋ (1) = 0.84134 , Ꝋ (-0.5) = 0.30854

Ꝋ (1) - Ꝋ (-0.5) = 0.53280

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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(Problem 7)
A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are selected, at
random, without replacement from the batch. (a) What is the probability that the second one selected is
defective given that the first one was defective? (b) What is the probability that both are defective? (c)
What is the probability that both are acceptable? Three containers are selected, at random, without
replacement, from the batch. (d) What is the probability that the third one selected is defective given
that the first and second ones selected were defective? (e) What is the probability that the third one
selected is defective given that the first one selected was defective and the second one selected was
okay? (f) What is the probability that all three are defective?

Solution
4
a- P(x) = =8.016*10-3
499
5 4
b- P(x) = * =8.016*10-5
500 499
495 494
c- P(x) = * =0.98
500 499
3
d- P(x) = =8.016*10-3
498
4
e- P(x) = =8.03*10-3
498
5 4 3
f- P(x) = * * =4.828*10-7
500 499 498

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

(Problem 8)
The probability distribution X of the number of accidents each week at a certain intersection is given by

(a) What is the probability that the number of accidents in a given week is at least 2? (b) What is the
mean number of accidents per week? (c) What is the probability that the number of accidents in a
week is at most (1) one standard deviation from the mean? (d) Less than two standard deviations from
the mean? (e) Find the cumulative distribution function of X

Solution

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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(Problem 9)

Solution
P ( x < 3) = 1

P ( x < 2) = 0.5

P ( x > 2) = 0.5

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

(Problem 10)
The range of the random variable X is [0,1,2,3,𝑥] where x is unknown. If each value is equally likely and
the mean of X is 6, determine x.

Solution
X is [0,1,2,3,x]
1
.:. The probability of each value is
5

Give mean =E(x) =6

From the above we have x:0 1 2 3 x

111 1 1
P(x):
555 5 5

E(x) =∑5𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 p(xi)=6

6+𝑥
=6
5

X=24

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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(Problem 11
Because not all airline passengers show up for their reserved seat, an airline sells 125 tickets for a flight
that holds only 120 passengers. The probability that a passenger does not show up is 0.10, and the
passengers behave independently. (a) What is the probability that every passenger who shows up can
take the flight? (b) What is the probability that the flight departs with empty seats? (a) What are n and
p?

Solution
XNB(n,P)→XNB(125,0.1)

a- p(X)= 1-∑𝑠𝑥=0(𝑛𝑥)Px * (1-P)n-x

p(X)=1-[(125
1
)*0.11*0.9124+(125
2
)*0.12*0.9123+(125
3
)*0.13*0.9122+(125
4
)*0.14*0.9121+(125
5
)*0.15*0.9120]

=1-0.011=0.989

b- p(x)= 1-∑6𝑥=0(𝑛𝑥)Px * (1-P)n-x

p(X)=1-
[(125
0
)*0.10*0.9125+(125
1
)*0.11*0.9124+(125
2
)*0.12*0.9123+(125
3
)*0.13*0.9122+(125
4
)*0.14*0.9121+(125
5
)*0.15*
0.9120+(125
6
)*0.16*0.9119]

=1-0.028=0.9717

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Problem 12
A company employs 800 men under the age of 55. Suppose that 30% carry a marker on the male
chromosome that indicates an increased risk for high blood pressure. (a) If 10 men in the company are
tested for the marker in this chromosome, what is the probability that exactly 1 man has the marker? (b)
If 10 men in the company are tested for the marker in this chromosome, what is the probability that
more than 1 has the marker?

Solution
Xn HyperGeon (n,s,N)
(𝑥𝑠 )(𝑁−𝑠
𝑛−𝑠 )
P(x)=
(𝑁
𝑛)

(240 560
1 )( 9 )
a- P(x=k=1)= =0.12
(800
10 )

b- p(X)=1-p(x=k=1)=1-0.12=0.88

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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Problem 13
The proportion of people who respond to a certain mail-order solicitation is a continuous random
variable X that has the density function

(a) Show that P(0 < X < 1) = 1. (b) Find the probability that more than 1/4 but fewer than 1/2 of the
people contacted will respond to this type of solicitation.

Solution
2 1 2 1 2 1
a- F(x)= ∫0 (𝑥 + 2)𝑑𝑥 = [ x2/2+2x∫0 = [ +2-0=1
5 5 5 2

2(𝑥+2)
.:. f(x)= for 0<x<1 is a density function
5

1 1 1𝑙2 2(𝑥+2)
b- p( <x< ) =∫1/4 dx
4 2 5

2 𝑥2
= ( +2x)
5 2
2 1 1 1
= ( +1- - )
5 8 32 2

=0.2375

2(𝑥+2)
.:. f(x)= for 0. 25 <x<0.5 is not a density function
5

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Problem 14

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 Solution
2 3
a- f(x) =∫0 (8x-x2)dx=1 density function
256
1 2
b- f(x)= 1-∫0 dx=
𝑥3

𝑘 4 𝑘 𝑥3 64𝑘
c- f(x)= ∫0 𝑥 2 dx= =[ ]40 = =1
2 2 3 6
6 3
.:. k= =
64 32

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