Suavizado exponencial

Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.3
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 1900 1900 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 1800 1900 -100 100 10000 05.56%
Period 3 2100 1870 230 230 52900 10.95%
Period 4 2000 1939 61 61 3721 03.05%
Period 5 2300 1957.3 342.7 342.7 117443.29 14.90%
Period 6 2400 2060.11 339.89 339.89 115525.2121 14.16%
Period 7 2500 2162.077 337.923 337.923 114191.9539 13.52%
Period 8 2200 2263.4539 -63.4539 63.4539 4026.397425 02.88%
Period 9 2400 2244.41773 155.58227 155.58227 24205.84274 06.48%
Period 10 2300 2291.092411 8.907589 8.907589 79.34514179 0.00387286
Total 1312.548959 1639.456759 442093.0413 71.89%
Average 131.2548959 163.9456759 44209.30413 07.19%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 235.0779236
Next period 2293.76469
 Tracking Signal
Cum Error Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)

-100 100 50 -2
130 330 110 1.181818182
191 391 97.75 1.953964194
533.7 733.7 146.74 3.637045114
873.59 1073.59 178.9316667 4.882254865
1211.513 1411.513 201.6447143 6.008156496
1148.0591 1474.9669 184.3708625 6.226900956
1303.64137 1630.54917 181.17213 7.195595537
1312.548959 1639.456759 163.9456759 8.005999254

Forecasting
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Demand Forecast
Suavizado exponencial
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.9
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 1900 1900 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 1800 1900 -100 100 10000 05.56%
Period 3 2100 1810 290 290 84100 13.81%
Period 4 2000 2071 -71 71 5041 03.55%
Period 5 2300 2007.1 292.9 292.9 85790.41 12.73%
Period 6 2400 2270.71 129.29 129.29 16715.9041 05.39%
Period 7 2500 2387.071 112.929 112.929 12752.95904 04.52%
Period 8 2200 2488.7071 -288.7071 288.7071 83351.78959 13.12%
Period 9 2400 2228.87071 171.12929 171.12929 29285.2339 07.13%
Period 10 2300 2382.887071 -82.887071 82.887071 6870.266539 0.03603786
Total 453.654119 1538.842461 333907.5632 69.41%
Average 45.3654119 153.8842461 33390.75632 06.94%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 204.2998908
Next period 2308.28871
 Tracking Signal
Cum Error Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)

-100 100 50 -2
190 390 130 1.461538462
119 461 115.25 1.032537961
411.9 753.9 150.78 2.731794668
541.19 883.19 147.1983333 3.676604128
654.119 996.119 142.3027143 4.596672687
365.4119 1284.8261 160.6032625 2.27524581
536.54119 1455.95539 161.7728211 3.316633699
453.654119 1538.842461 153.8842461 2.948021844

Forecasting
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time

Demand Forecast