Africa Programme

Meeting Summary

Sudan’s Regional Policy: Key

Relations and Engagements
HE Professor Ibrahim Ghandour
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Sudan

Chair: Dame Rosalind Marsden

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

13 December 2017

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2 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

Introduction

This meeting summary provides an overview of an event, held at Chatham House on 13 December 2017,
with HE Professor Ibrahim Ghandour, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Sudan.

At the event, HE Professor Ibrahim Ghandour set out the Sudanese government’s regional priorities and
key relations. While it is an important troop-contributing member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in
Yemen, Sudan has sought to retain a neutral position on the intra-Gulf dispute, supporting mediation
efforts. At the same time, Sudan is playing a central role in regional diplomacy in the Horn of Africa,
particularly on South Sudan, and is involved in tripartite negotiations over the Nile with Ethiopia and
Egypt, as well as engaging on dynamics in Libya and Chad.

The meeting was held on the record. The following summary is intended to serve as an aide-memoire for
those who took part, and to provide a general summary of discussions for those who did not.

For more information – including recordings, transcripts, summaries, and further resources on this and
other related topics – visit www.chathamhouse.org/research/africa.

HE Professor Ibrahim Ghandour

Sudan’s regional priorities and key relations

Sudan has a unique geopolitical position and lies at the centre of the African continent. The region is in
turmoil and Sudan’s neighbours are experiencing problems ranging from Boko Haram in the west to al-
Shabaab in the east; ISIS and Al-Qaeda; conflicts in South Sudan, Libya, the Central African Republic; the
dam dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt; and the border issue between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Sudan is
located in the middle of this regional chaos, and is an anchor of stability. The central element of Sudanese
foreign policy is to limit conflicts with neighbours and to resolve problems with neighbouring countries
peacefully.

As conflicts are prevalent in the region, there are many priority areas for Sudanese foreign policy
including South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. To tackle the problems in the Horn of
Africa at a regional level, summits as well as ministerial meetings are being held on a regular basis. A
recent international conference was held in Sudan with the support of the African Union High Level
Implementation Panel (AUHIP), chaired by former President Thabo Mbeki. In the coming months Sudan
will host a summit for countries in the Horn of Africa to discuss how to implement closer integration. The
Vice President/Prime Minister Bakri Hassan Saleh is visiting Asmara to try and bridge the gaps between
the neighbours and cousins, Ethiopia and Eritrea, so that closer ties can become a reality.

The Horn of Africa region is one of the richest, culturally, in the world, but ongoing insecurity, violence,
poverty and a lack of integration make the region’s people one of the poorest in the world. This prompts
people from the Horn of Africa to put their lives at risk by making dangerous journeys to Europe in order
to get job opportunities and better security. These people should be able to stay in their homes, and
3 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

integration is the best way for leaders to provide opportunity and to improve lives. These countries lie on
an important trade passage – the Red Sea – where 86 per cent of oil trade transits. Today this is an area
where the military presence of every power in the world can be found. The aim of Sudan’s foreign policy is
to promote a peaceful region.

The achievement of peace in neighbouring South Sudan is an absolute priority and a moral responsibility
for the Sudanese government and people. The civil war with Southern Sudan started in 1955, just before
the independence of Sudan, and continued until the Addis Ababa Accord was signed in 1972. After 10
years the war started again, and continued for 20 years until the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was
signed in 2005. The Sudanese government accepted the right to self-determination of the South Sudanese
people and agreed to hold a referendum to bring the decade-long conflict to an end and allow two
countries to live in peace. Sudan advocated that South Sudan’s separation would not lead to a peaceful
South. This has been proven, with fighting starting again in 2013 and continuing to the present day.

Sudan has welcomed more than 2 million South Sudanese people and accepted them as Sudanese. They
enjoy the limited amount of resources and services of Sudan. Only a few refugees are in camps but the
majority are free to live where they want and 10,000 go to Sudanese schools and universities. Sudan has
played an active role in promoting peace, despite South Sudan hosting Sudanese rebel groups. Sudan has
been an active partner in the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) peace process trying
to resolve the conflict.

Sudan has held meetings with various stakeholders to try to get them to join the High Level Revitalization
Forum (HLRF). The speaker travelled with the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, Workneh Gebeyehu, to
South Africa to talk with Riek Machar and convince him to take part. The speaker will be travelling to
Addis Ababa for a Council of Ministers meeting on 17 December 2017 and aims to implement the
decisions of the IGAD summit on the peace process.

Another issue of concern for Sudan is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) being constructed
in Ethiopia. The White Nile comes from Uganda, running through South Sudan and Sudan. The Blue Nile
comes from Ethiopia and they meet at the confluence in Khartoum, where the river Nile forms. Although
shallower and shorter, the Blue Nile accounts for 85 per cent of the Nile’s water coming from the
Ethiopian highlands. Sudan and Egypt have a colonial agreement on the Nile waters from 1929, which
was updated in 1959, allocating Egypt the right to 55.5 billion cubic metres of Nile waters per year and
Sudan 18.5 billion cubic metres per year.

Ethiopia wants to build the dam in order to generate electricity for industrial development, as well as to
sell it – Sudan is one of the customers and Egypt can be another customer among many. The reservoir is
capable of holding 74 billion cubic metres of water, which, if used for irrigation would affect the flow of
Nile waters to Sudan and Egypt. The project has put a strain on relations between Ethiopia and Egypt,
with Egypt voicing fears about the security of its water supply from the Blue Nile. However, this power-
generating dam will only be filled once, meaning that both Egypt and Sudan will not be affected in the
matter of water resources.
4 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

For Sudan, the construction of the dam itself is not problematic, as long as Ethiopia agrees not to fill the
dam in a very short period, to ensure a stable water supply continues for the countries downstream. This
is a technical issue that can be discussed. Sudan will gain electricity from the dam and importantly has
not been using its entire share of the Nile waters, which has gone to Egypt during the floods. The GERD
will allow Sudan to keep water and use it when needed during droughts. For Sudan, the 1959 agreement
with Egypt on the Nile waters is a red line; Egypt will continue getting its share of the water as has been
agreed upon. Sudan is not neutral but a part of the eastern Nile valley issue, which is why the government
has been trying to bridge the gap between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Outside the Horn of Africa, relations with the Gulf countries are of high importance to Sudan. Qatar has
been trying to bring peace to Darfur by brokering peace negotiations in Doha for over three years until the
peace agreement was signed. They supported the rebuilding of infrastructure destroyed by the war and
continue to do so after the Doha Agreement was reached. Relations with Saudi Arabia are excellent, and
the love of the Sudanese for Mecca and Medina is incomparable. Relations with the UAE, Bahrain and
Egypt are also excellent and one set of relations cannot be sacrificed for others. Therefore, Sudan has
decided to stay neutral in the current conflict among the Gulf countries. Rather than taking sides, Sudan
is supporting the Kuwaiti initiative aiming to find a solution. As long as there are no foreign interventions,
Sudan is optimistic that the Gulf countries will come together and overcome these problems.

As part of the Saudi-led multinational coalition backing the Yemeni president, Sudan also has a vested
interest in the ongoing civil war in Yemen. Despite often being described as the Saudi-UAE alliance, there
are 28 countries in this alliance. Sudan has troops on the ground in Yemen and there are others with
troops on the ground, in the sea or the air. The recent passing of Ali Abdullah Saleh changed the dynamics
of the conflict and will have serious implications for Yemen. It is likely that Yemen will separate into a
southern and a northern part. If that takes place, with the north led by the Houthis, it will likely result in a
proxy war between Iran and other Arab countries in the Gulf. The international community should work
towards a united Yemen and a peaceful settlement of the conflict, based on UN Resolution 2016, the Gulf
Initiative, and the results of the national dialogue in Yemen.

Sudan aims to be an active player in regional relations and one of the key initiatives the country has been
trying to implement with its neighbours is the establishment of joint border forces. The border forces of
Sudan and Chad have trained together for seven years, which has led to security improvements along the
border as well as better overall cooperation between the countries. The forces have been building facilities
in health, education and electricity for villages on both sides of the border. Similar initiatives are in
various stages of implementation with Ethiopia, Egypt, Eritrea, South Sudan and Libya. Joint forces could
be used across the entire region.

Summary of question and answer session

When President Bashir met with President Putin on his recent visit to Russia, he made some very critical
remarks about US policy in Sudan and the region, saying that the US was trying to divide Sudan into
five parts and offering Russia the use of a military base on the Red Sea. How should these statements be
interpreted? How will they impact current and future engagement with the US?
5 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

This was a very important visit, but the statements made during the meeting have not been reported
accurately. Which country is not critical of some US policies in the world? The issue of Russia protecting
Sudan came as part of discussion about support Russia provided Sudan in the UN Security Council in
2016, at a time when some countries, including the US, UK and others proposed a resolution banning the
export of Sudanese gold. After the secession of South Sudan, Sudan lost 75 per cent of its foreign currency
through the loss of oil reserves. The export of gold became the main source of foreign currency and Sudan
has become the second-largest exporter in Africa. Losing this income would have detrimental impacts.
Russia, China and Egypt stood by Sudan on this matter and President Bashir asked for continued
protection on similar matters in his meeting with President Putin. Sudan did not, and has never,
requested military assistance from Russia. This meeting should have no impact on Sudan’s interaction
with the US.

The government labelling people as ‘rebels’ is a slippery slope – President Bashir started his tenure by
overthrowing a democratic government and the people who are rebelling today are doing so in
response to the human rights violations committed by Bashir’s government. How can we go back to
more democratic governance, which Sudan had before the 1989 coup?

What are Sudan’s interests and priorities in the strategic dialogue with the UK?

What is this government doing to fight the groups involved in human trafficking, smuggling of
migrants and money laundering on the eastern Sudan border with Eritrea? Are there any programmes
in place to collect weapons from these groups?

Many of those who are in rebellion today were part of the government in the past. For example, Minni
Arkou Minnawi was part of the government before leaving for Juba prior to the elections, as he refused to
stand by the security arrangements he had previously agreed to in Abuja in 2006. Unwilling to give up his
soldiers, he started the rebellion again from South Sudan. In regard to human rights violations, the
government is proud of its record. It is by no means perfect, but Sudan does not have political detainees
or similar issues; whereas in neighbouring countries, hundreds of thousands are detained because of their
political opinions. President Bashir might have come into power through a coup, but he is an elected
president today and his legitimacy as a president is not in question.

In the context of the speaker’s visit to the UK, he has met with two UK ministers - the foreign secretary
and the minister for Africa. He has attended the opening of an investment forum exploring opportunities
for UK companies in Sudan. After the lifting of sanctions on Sudan, the country’s market and economy
are open for investors and the historical trade links with the UK have much potential for revitalization. In
the meeting with the foreign secretary, issues of human and religious rights were the main points on the
agenda. The perception of Sudan’s human rights record has been distorted in the past by some refugees
from Sudan coming to Europe and claiming they are victims of horrific violations in order to enjoy the
privileges of asylum in Europe. Many are leaving for economic reasons and to get jobs; others claim to
fight for democracy, but you cannot fight for democracy in Sudan while enjoying life in London.

The collection of illegal arms is happening throughout the country, including in Khartoum, in order to
fight criminal and armed groups. Criminality in Darfur dropped by 99 per cent after the collection of arms
and this is part of the Doha Agreement. The issue of human trafficking and other forms of organized
crime taking place in the region between Eritrea and Sudan is a serious problem and another reason for
creating a joint border surveillance force with Eritrea. Without accusing a specific tribe of these activities,
most of the human trafficking, illegal migration and arms smuggling has been coming from the eastern
borders. Sudan has even closed its border with Libya in the west.
6 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

Muslim Arabs in Libya are treating Muslim and Christian Africans in their country as commodities and
yet the Sudanese government retains good relations with Libya. What will the government do to stop
ongoing atrocities?

The Sudanese government claims to aim for good relations with neighbouring countries; however, it
continues to support opposition movements in various countries and fails to be impartial in its relations
with its neighbours. How can this discrepancy be reconciled?

In his recent meeting with President Putin, President Bashir was very clear in his demands for military
protection and did offer Russia a military base in Sudan. What benefits would such a base have for
Sudanese people?

The speaker mentioned the importance of the border between South Sudan and Sudan in regard to the
populations on both sides. What is the level of commitment to the implementation of the cooperation
agreement signed in 2012 and what priority is it being given by the two governments?

The speaker fully condemns what is happening in Libya, the same way Europeans and Africans have
condemned it. Amira Al-Fadil, the African Union (AU) Commissioner for Social Affairs and a former
Sudanese minister was in Libya regarding this issue and the AU is committed to resolving the situation.
Many Sudanese nationals are facing inhumane treatment. This is not a matter of Muslims against
Christians, or Arabs against Africans, but one of wrongdoing, which has to be condemned and punished.

The speaker is unaware of bad relations with Eritrea. Sudan’s vice president/prime minister is about to
travel there for an official visit. President Bashir will travel there in three weeks and the last foreign visit
Eritrean President Isaias took was to Khartoum. In terms of Asmara siding with Egypt, and Sudan siding
with Ethiopia, Sudan is not siding with anyone on disputes in the region. The government is holding
regular mutual visits with all neighbouring governments. Sudan wants to further its own interests and is
not getting involved in others’ domestic matters. On the Nile waters issue, Ethiopia is against the 1959
agreement, which is a red line – so why is Sudan not accused of siding with Egypt? Regarding relations
with Egypt, the speaker meets his counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, monthly. Whatever is reported in the
media as a problem should not be taken at face value – it is because of the Halayeb dispute, which the
government holds is Sudanese territory. The two countries are not enemies.

Sudan is not supporting any rebels in Libya. There is no proof, and with satellites and technology this
would be impossible to hide. Some Darfuris have joined with the Libyan military commander Khalifa
Haftar's forces as paid mercenaries, but this is not authorized by the Sudanese government. Sudanese
forces fighting in Yemen are on the border with Saudi Arabia and Sudan has not received a penny. Sudan
is protecting Saudi Arabia because of the holy places and working to reinstitute the legitimate government
in Yemen. The issue of a Russian military base in Sudan has been discussed for some time, but no
practical steps have been taken so far. Sudan is currently not hosting any military bases, while other
countries in the region host a total of 11 bases. The speaker is not in favour of setting up a base, but Sudan
would not be the first country in the region to do so.

In his last visit to Khartoum, President Salva Kiir committed himself to the 2012 agreement. Significant
progress has been made on the issue of borders and further agreements will be signed between Sudan and
South Sudan later this week. Currently, the Sudanese government is working on the implementation of a
10-kilometre safe demilitarized zone, with border surveillance on both sides, which it is hoped will be
completed by 2019. The successful implementation of a demilitarized zone would be the most important
factor in making sure neither one of the countries is supporting rebels.
7 Sudan's Regional Policy: Key Relations and Engagements

The speaker presented Sudan as an island of stability in a sea of chaos. Sudan itself has been at war
every day since this government took power and President Bashir has been indicted by the
International Criminal Court (ICC). How did this issue figure into the speaker’s discussions with the
British government?

Is it true that the US deputy secretary of state told the speaker that the US will not remove Sudan from
the state sponsors of terrorism if President Bashir runs in the 2020 elections?

The speaker said the government achieved peace with South Sudan by granting them the right to self-
determination. Could the speaker imagine a similar process of self-determination to achieve peace in
Darfur?

The issue of the indictment of President Bashir was not discussed with anybody and the speaker is not
ready to discuss it now. The ICC is being used as a political tool against Africans. If it was used properly as
an international means of justice, many others should have been indicted for the crimes committed in
Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. However, this is not the case. Sudan is not a member of the Rome
Statute or the ICC, and does not accept the indictment of its nationals.

In meetings with the US deputy secretary of state, religious freedoms and human rights were discussed.
The question of President Bashir running for re-election in 2020 was not discussed. If it was ever brought
up, the discussion would be terminated.

The government of Sudan has continued to negotiate with the rebel groups in Darfur for many years since
the conflict broke out in 2003. The rebel groups have splintered into dozens of competing factions
fighting for different causes. Self-determination might sound like the ideal solution from afar, but there is
no support for independence in Darfur and no consensus on the matter – Sudan and Darfur belong to
each other. The cabinet is 30 per cent Darfuri; Bahar Abu Garda is the Minister of Health and he was part
of the rebellion.