Risk analysis of number of deaths and economic losses from Philippine

typhoon disasters based on Monte Carlo method

Christian Ray C. Buendia
Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology
Univesity of the Philippines Los Baños

Materials Method
Introduction/Background
Data on the socioeconomic effects of Generate a

Natural disasters always entail economic Philippine typhoons (number of deaths 1

• Data analysis standard uniform
random variate u

and social costs. Since it is impossible and economic losses) from the year Return y Set P(x) = u

1951 up to 2012 was used as basis for

to totally eradicate economic damages
and loss of lives in the event of a natural the Monte Carlo simulation.The data 2
• Modeling
disaster, emphasis is given to reducing or set was acquired upon request from the
mitigating such losses. Belgium-based Centre for Research on
3
• Monte Carlo Simulation Find the value of
y
Find the value of
x
the Epidemiology of Disaster Emergency
Analysis of risk provides policymakers Events Database (CRED EM-DAT).
with objective basis on which current
and proposed disaster mitigation plans 4
• Distribution Fitting
can be crafted, reviewed and revised. Set P(y) = v Return x

Improved preparedness in handling Monte Carlo Method Flowchart of the study methodology.
Generate a
risks involving natural hazards reduces standard uniform
random variate v
economic and social losses, thereby “a numerical method of solving mathematical problems by the simulation of random
helping in spurring national economic Extended variation of inverse transform method used in simulation.
variables” (Sobol, 1994).
development.
Conclusion
Results and Discussions The results of this study can be
Objectives taken into account by disaster
The number of deaths and economic 4,500 4,107
risk reduction and mitigation
*Gather and analyze data losses that correspond to a 10-year, 4,000 planners and policy makers in
on mortality and economic 50-year, 100-year and 1,000-year 3,500
2,738
managing typhoon-related risks and

Number of deaths
return period of Philippine typhoons uncertainties.
3,000

damages with respect to typhoon 2,500

2,326

frequency were successfully obtained using a 2,000

1,368
5,000-year Monte Carlo simulation. 1,500
Knowledge of the number of deaths
for a given return period can provide
1,000

*Simulate socioeconomic effects 500

of typhoons using Monte Carlo Based on the results of the fit test, it 0
10-yr 50-yr 100-yr 1000-yr
disaster mitigation planners with
risk analysis model is shown that the simulated deaths Return Period an idea of standby manpower for
Cumulative distribution function of number of deaths follow an approximately geometric Number of deaths for four typhoon return periods rescue and operation activities,
based on Monte Carlo Simulation distribution. On the other hand, while projected economic losses
*Determine the number of
deaths and economic losses the simulated economic losses 1,200,000
1,147 can give an idea of the optimal
corresponding to assigned return follow an approximately Johnson SB amount of annual calamity fund to

Economic losses (million $)

939.01

distribution. be disbursed for reconstruction and

1,000,000
856.97
periods 800,000
619.24 rehabilitation effort after disaster
*Offer insights on the use of risk Using the cumulative distribution 600,000
events.
analysis results on the planning functions of the socioeconomic 400,000

of disaster mitigation measures factors of interest, the projected 200,000

Reference
number of deaths and economic 0
10-yr 50-yr 100-yr 1000-yr
losses were obtained for four Return Period SOBOL, I. (1994). A primer for the Monte Carlo

Cumulative distribution function of economic losses

researcher-assigned typhoon return Economic losses for four typhoon return periods
Method. Boca Raton: CRS Press.
based on Monte Carlo Simulation periods.