POL 203 Climate Change, Natural Resources and Conflict (TMA, 2023)

Assignment 1-Thinkpiece

Walch, Colin (2018): Weakened by the storm: rebel group recruitment in the wake of
natural disasters in the Philippines. Journal of Peace Research 55(3), p. 336-350.

30th May 2023

Murdoch University

Tan Farlynda
CT0353369
THINK PIECE

Walch, Colin (2018): Weakened by the Storm: Rebel Group Recruitment in the
Wake of Natural Disasters in the Philippines. Journal of Peace Research 55(3), p.
336-350.

Empirically examining the aftermath of natural disasters, Colin Walch's research

focuses on two notable cases in the Philippines: typhoons Bopha in 2012 and Haiyan in

2013, which impacted regions partially controlled by the communist rebel group, the

New People's Army (NPA). Through extensive fieldwork, Walch found no evidence

supporting the notion of increased rebel recruitment following the typhoons. On the

contrary, the NPA experienced a temporary weakening due to the destructive impact of

the storms, leading to significant shifts in the dynamics of the Philippine civil war.

The consequences of natural disasters can have profound effects on the economic

stability, livelihoods, and agricultural production of local populations. This often results in

a scarcity of legitimate income opportunities and heightened competition for vital

resources like water and land. In certain circumstances, these conditions may drive

individuals to join insurgent organizations, thereby escalating the likelihood of conflict.

Moreover, the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of food supplies, and loss of

hiding places can disperse and disillusion these rebel combatants and sympathizers.

Additionally, the increased presence of government and international actors in disaster-

affected areas can impede the rebel groups' control over their territories. Despite claims

of disrupted governance, socio-economic vulnerabilities, resource competition, weak

state capacity, and the exploitation of social fragmentation by rebel groups for

recruitment, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent disadvantages faced by these

groups. In contrast to the government's access to international funds, extensive

networks, and abundant resources, rebel groups often lack critical infrastructure and
supplies. This disparity in reliable supply lines forces rebel groups to scatter across

regions, resulting in diminished morale and a decline in their activities.

The multifaceted impacts of climate change pose an elevated risk of violent conflict

through various mechanisms. Firstly, as resources like water and agricultural land

become scarcer or unevenly distributed, competition over access and control intensifies,

particularly in regions heavily reliant on these resources. Disruptions such as droughts

and floods displace communities and trigger migration, further straining resources and

exacerbating tensions between host communities and migrants. Additionally, climate

change contributes to political and social instability, creating conditions conducive to

social unrest and conflicts. Furthermore, climate change affects territorial boundaries

and resource-rich areas, heightening geopolitical tensions and potentially leading to

conflicts over land and valuable resources.

Upon reflection, the connection between climate change and the likelihood of violent
conflict is intricate and multifaceted. While it can be challenging to make definitive
predictions, research indicates that certain climate change-related factors in developing
countries, coupled with the rise of social media, may contribute to an increased risk of
violent conflict in specific situations (Selby, Hoffman, 2015).
References

Peters, L. E. R. (2022). Disasters as Ambivalent Multipliers: Influencing the Pathways

from Disaster to Conflict Risk and Peace Potential Through Disaster Risk Reduction.
Retrieved from https://www.sagepub.com

Selby, J., & Hoffman, C. (Eds.). (2015). Rethinking climate change, conflict, and
security. London, UK: Routledge.