Week 17 – Transportation and Pandemics

Introduction to Transport Services

Pandemics

What is a pandemic? It is an epidemic of infectious disease that spreads through human

populations across a large area, even worldwide.

Over the last 300 years, ten major influenza pandemics have occurred. The 1918 pandemic
(Spanish Flu) is considered to be yet the most severe. 30% of the world’s population became ill
and between 50 and 100 million died. One important factor why the Spanish Flu spread so quickly
and so extensively was through modern transportation, which at the beginning of the 20th century
offered global coverage. The virus was spread around the world by infected crews and
passengers of ships and trains and severe epidemics occurred in shipyards and railway
personnel.

Concerns about the emergence of a new pandemic are salient, particularly in light of recent
outbreaks such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002-2003, the Avian Flu in
2005, the Swine Flu in 2009, and the coronavirus in 2019-2020 (COVID-19) which quickly spread
because of the convenience and ubiquity of global air travel. An influenza-like pandemic could be
equally severe as the Spanish Flu pandemic, and widespread illness or absenteeism in freight
transportation sectors can cause cascading disruptions of social and economic systems.

Main Factors behind the Global Spread of Diseases

1. Global travel. The speed and connectivity offered by air travel have become the most
important factors in the global spread of diseases. The large number of people traveling for
touristic and business purposes increases exponentially the risk of spreading flu-like
diseases (viruses) rapidly and over long distances. The underlying connectivity, business
and social interactions behind global air travel are associated with the initial epidemiology
of an epidemic or a pandemic.

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 2. Wars and conflicts. While the number and intensity of conflicts have substantially
decreased in recent decades, they can be enduring and pervasive in several areas of the
world. The related collapse of public infrastructures such as hospitals and public utilities
(water and sewage systems) increases the vulnerability of the concerned populations.
Further, conflicts are often associated with the internal and external displacements of
populations (refugees), which may lead to the spread of diseases.

3. Global trade. A less prevalent factor, but the risks associated with the unintended transport
of pests or contaminated food, where bacteria are the vector. Otherwise, there are limited
risks of the spread of diseases through trade.

4. Migration. Large scale migration conveys the risk of migrants to transplant endemic
diseases to new locations. This is particularly the case of migrants cluster within specific
areas of their host countries.

5. Poverty. While global poverty rates have plummeted, poverty is associated with
malnutrition and unsanitary living conditions, making poor populations more susceptible.

6. Medical practices. The large diffusion of antibiotics had the unintended consequence of
enforcing a pathogenic natural selection, implying that viruses and microbes have greater
resistance.

The relationships between transportation and pandemics involve two major sequential
dimensions:

1. Transportation as a vector. From an epidemiological perspective, transportation can thus

be considered as a vector, particularly for passenger transportation systems. The
configuration of air transportation networks shapes the diffusion of pandemics. The global
air transport system is composed of airports that have different volumes and connectivity,
implying that depending on the airport there is a potentially different scale and scope of
diffusion. This issue concerns the early phases of a pandemic (first 10 days) where
transportation systems are likely to spread any outbreak at the global level.

2. Continuity of freight distribution. Once a pandemic takes place or immediately thereafter,

the major concerns shift to freight distribution. Modern economic activities cannot be
sustained without continuous deliveries of food, fuel, electricity, and other resources.
However, few events can be more disruptive than a pandemic as critical supply chains can
essentially shut down. Disruptions in the continuity of distribution are potentially much
more damaging than the pandemic itself.

Vectors and Velocities

The more efficient transportation, the more efficient is the vector that can transmit infectious
disease. International and long-distance transport such as air and rail, modes and terminals alike,
concentrates passengers and increase the risk of exposure.

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Diffusion of a Pandemic through a Global Transportation Network

Since the incubation time for the average influenza virus is between 2 and 7 days, there is ample
time for someone who is infected to travel to the other side of the world before noticing symptoms.
This represents the translocation phase and is the most crucial in a pandemic. Once symptoms
have developed, there is also a “denial phase” where an infected individual will continue traveling,
particularly if going back to his place of origin. An infected individual beginning to show symptoms
is likely to cancel an outbound travel but will do the utmost, even breaking quarantine (or
warnings), to go back home. Thus, in a window of a few days, before an outbreak could become
apparent to global health authorities, a virus could have easily been translocated in many different
locations around the world. At this point, the vector and velocity of modern transport systems
would ensure that an epidemic becomes a pandemic. In some cases, the velocity of global
transportation systems is higher than at the regional level, which paradoxically implies that a virus
can spread faster at the global level – between major gateways – than at the regional level.

Once an outbreak becomes apparent, the global passenger transportation system, such as air
travel and passenger rail, can quickly be shut down in whole or in part, either voluntarily (more
likely if the outbreak is judged to be serious) or by the unwillingness of passengers to be exposed
to risks. Although travel restrictions may not prevent the total number of infected individuals, they
slow down the rate of spread and give more opportunities for actors such as public health
agencies, corporations, and individuals to prepare and implement mitigation strategies.

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Impacts of Pandemics on Supply Chains

A pandemic can impact the components of supply chains through three fundamental aspects:

1. Supply shocks. They represent an unexpected sudden change in the availability of raw
materials, parts, and manufacturing capabilities. It is not just that prices may surge. Still,
the availability of essential components can vanish because of a lack of raw materials,
parts, or the lack of labor necessary for their procurement. Depending on the existing
buffer, such as stockpiles of energy, grain, or raw materials, the supply shock can take
some time to be felt across a supply chain.

2. Demand shocks. Similar to supply shocks, demand shocks imply a sudden change in the
demand due to unforeseen circumstances. For several items such as food, hoarding may
trigger a temporary surge in the demand with several items becoming unavailable.
However, the fundamental impact of pandemics on market demand is deflationary. The
consumption of discretionary items such as cars, clothing, furniture, or appliances is
deferred, and the demand for energy declines with less commuting. The only notable
exception concerns medical equipment and pharmaceuticals that see a surge during a
pandemic. Consumers undertake a substitution of their consumption patterns towards
essential goods and will shift their consumption depending on the scarcity and price of
items. Restaurants and caterers may be incited to substitute their services to new forms
such as take outs and home deliveries only.

3. Distribution constraints. During a pandemic, the distribution capabilities can be impaired by

restrictions on trade, the lack of a workforce, or the closing of key distribution facilities such
as airports, ports, or distribution centers. This implies that existing inventory could be
mainly unavailable because of the lack of distribution capabilities. So, even if production
capabilities could be present, the lack of distribution capabilities can create shortages
irrespective of the demand. As last-mile distribution relies much more on labor than prior
stages, there is a much higher risk of disruptions through labor absenteeism due to illness.
Due to substantial changes in the demand, major distributors, such as e-commerce
retailers, will modify their procurement strategies to focus on high demand items while
discontinuing the procurement of discretionary items.

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Possible Mitigation Strategies

 Transit systems. These systems are essential for workers and personnel to commute to
their functions to support economic activities and key services. While the option is to shut
transit systems down to reduce the risks of contagion, key transit infrastructure should be
allowed to remain operational during a pandemic, particularly if the system is automated or
if the operators are separated from the passengers. Service frequency should be reduced,
and passengers informed that while the transit system remains operational, that using such
a system represents a risk and that precaution such as social distancing should be taken.
Since commuting demand is likely to drop down substantially, passenger density in public
transit systems would decline proportionally.

 Road and highways. Individual mobility represents a safe form of transportation during a
pandemic as individual car and truck drivers have a very low level of exposure to
contamination while they operate their vehicles. This allows for the continuity of essential
commuting and of freight deliveries to distribution centers, retail outlets, institutions such as
hospitals and elderly care facilities, and home deliveries. The main risks are during
refueling, loading, and unloading, but these risks can be reasonably mitigated. Individual
passenger and freight mobility should not be excessively restricted during a pandemic, with
the mobility of trucks becoming a priority. Retaining home delivery capabilities through e-
commerce is particularly important as it allows people to have access to essential supplies
while minimizing contamination risks, particularly for those who are the most susceptible.

 Air travel. A pandemic has the indirect advantage of freeing substantial airlift capabilities
that can be used to carry large quantities of essential cargo using passenger aircraft.
Therefore, airlines and key airports must maintain air travel capabilities with a pool of
available aircraft, pilots, controllers, and ground personnel. Travel restrictions should,
therefore, focus on passengers and allow airlines to continue offering services. The drop in
air traffic may incite airports to rationalize their operations by closing terminals (or sections
of terminals) and concentrating activities such as customs and security.

 Maritime shipping. The international maritime domain presents unique challenges as it

plays a fundamental role in supporting the global distribution of essential commodities
(food and energy), parts, and finished goods. The naval services of nations should prepare
to establish task forces in international waters to quickly provide vaccine/antivirals and
other health assistance to the multinational mariners of commercial vessels as they transit
into or out of maritime chokepoints and sea lanes. International military and civilian entities
such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the International Maritime Organization, or
the Global Maritime Partnership initiative can provide the organizational framework to
protect global maritime commerce. Since cargo ship crews may stay several months
onboard as part of their rotation, suitable ports have to be found to allow crews exchanges,
including their repatriation.

References:

Authors: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dr. Thomas Luke (Department of Virology, Naval Medical Research Center)
and Dr. Michael Osterholm (Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP),
University of Minnesota)

Luke, T.C. and J-P Rodrigue (2008) “Protecting Public Health and Global Freight Transportation Systems during
an Influenza Pandemic”, American Journal of Disaster Medicine, Vol. 3, No. 2., pp. 99-107.

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