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DR Dan Diario Trades 2013
DR Dan Diario Trades 2013
DR Dan Diario Trades 2013
PL check at 2:30 - $2,015 in booked profits, not a bad day of work at level 4
The following pages contain annotated charts as well as
some thoughts leading up to the trade entry, along with
the intended trade mangament plan.
This was written in a journal format, trying to capture
the thought process as it occurred. This was not written
in a book format, so no attempt was made to follow
grammatical rules and protocols, nor was it reviewed
for such things. Please do not email me about any
errors you may find, as I am sure there are plenty, and if
you are more concerned about grammatical errors then
you are learning about trading then you are missing the
big picture. If you find any mathematical mistakes in
any of the explanations which cause confusion about a
trade explanation, then please feel free to email me.
NQ
Trade thoughts - Having traded NQ a few times earlier in the week the potential for quick 30-50 cents moves,
without large spreads make it a watch list stock for early morning scalps. If an igniting bar forms at 9:35 the play
will be to find a tight entry on a smaller time frame. With a level 4 account this trade should have a risk range of
$50-$75.
Trade Mgmn’t – Scalp trade- looking for a quick 1:1 move or better, stop will be raised to break even once that
target is reached, possible exit of 1/3 depending on how strong the momentum is at the time target is reached.
At 2:1 the stop will be raised to lock in the 1:1 profits and again a partial exit will be considered but the goal will
be to let it ride if momentum is strong. If 3:1 or more can be hit on a scalp play, the profits must be protected
with a very tight trail. Will be watching for price behavior near the whole number to again gauge strength of
momentum.
TEVA
Trade thoughts - Mega gap down into daily support, if the first 5 minutes can hold the low at the whole
number then take out the 9:35 high on the next bar, there should be some follow through to the upside and
there is plenty of room for a bounce even if the gap retracement is only a 33% move higher. As long as the
risk/reward on the entry is at least 2:1 at the 33% retracement level this trade can be taken. This trade should
look to have an initial risk of $50-$75
Trade Mgmn’t – Looking for a 2:1 move or better, stop will be raised to break even once a 1:1 target is
reached and a possilbe exit of 1/3 depending on how strong the momentum is at that time. At 2:1 the stop will
be raised to lock in the 1:1 profits and again a partial exit will be considered but the goal will be to let it ride if
momentum is strong. If the mometum is strong at 9:45, will look to ride profits into the next whole number or
10am reversal time and then depending on context of the trade will take partial or all profits, any remaining
positon will be trailed on a 5 min bar by bar.
QCOR
Trade thoughts – Scanner finds a potential canidate for a climactic decline buy. The stock has already dropped
15% including the gap down, and the range of the drop is already over 8 bucks, 10 if you include the gap down,
so if and when this sets up there will be potential for a big move or even a small bounce. This has to be stalked
and the decision to enter will be based on the potential risk reward when the trigger sets up. Being that the
climactic drop was not an acceleration of an exisitng trend, but more of an igniting move from a gap down, the
initial target should be looked at as a 33% retracement and the risk reward needs to be at least 2:1 at that
location, much of this entry will depend on the range of the reversal sign, so in this instacne a NRB would be
preferred to a BT bar. Will be watching the 2 and the 5 minute charts while stalking. Feeling good about the
potential for a home run trade so instead of the initial risk of $50-$75, it’s time to press – risking the morning
profits with a break even attitude for the day if this one stops out , so this may be the last trade of the day with
the worse case sceanario for the day being a break even event. Risk will be $250.
Trade Mgmn’t – Looking for a 2:1 move or better, stop will be raised to break even once a 1:1 target is
reached and a possilbe exit of 1/3 depending on how strong the momentum is at that time. At 2:1 the stop will
be raised to lock in the 1:1 profits and again a partial exit will be considered but the goal will be to let it ride if
momentum is strong. Will look to add and reduce and book profits along the way, but always maintaining a
break even or better stop on the trail and with any add backs. If the momentum is strong, will look to ride
profits into each whole number on the way to the 33% retracement and depending on context of the trade will
take partial or all profits, any remaining positon will be trailed on a 5 min bar by bar.
.
LVS
Trade thoughts – Scanning over the thumbnail charts looking for one more scalp before lunch, LVS shows a
potential trade setting up. With the account already up $1276 in profits, $1,000 will be locked in for the day
leaving a $276 max risk available at this time. Lunch time is not typically an “all in “ moment, so even though
this trade will be an aggressive entry, it will only have a $100 max risk. Seeing LVS drop into the 5 min 200ma
and a prior base sets up an opportunity to bid on support in anticipation of the reversal. Since we are not
waiting on conformation of the trigger bar, we need to chose a predefined stop. Based on the decision of a
$100 max risk and the location of the entry and prior base, a max 20 cent stop is going to be used allowing a 500
share long entry on the bid. If a confirmed break of the 200ma happens at a point prior to the 20 cent loss, the
trade will be closed on that event instead of taking the full loss.
Trade Mgmn’t – Looking for a 2:1 move or better, which based on the aggressive bid entry can happen with
less that a 50% retracemnet of the most recent drop into support. Stop will be raised to break even as soon as
the reversal bar triggers. Once a 1:1 target is reached the stop will be raised to lock in half of that move and
possibly exit 1/3 depening on how strong the momentum is at that time. At 2:1 the stop will be raised to lock in
the 1:1 profits and again a partial exit will be considered but the goal will be to let it ride if momentum is strong.
If the most recent pivot high can be broken there is potential for a really big move back towards the morning
highs, but since it is lunch time a tight trail will be maintained. If the mometum is strong, will look to ride profits
into the whole number and then the HOD Trail stop will be on a 5 min bar by bar until the prior pivot high is
broken, and then will look to see if a 2 min 8ma can be used instead.
FNSR
Trade thoughts – Getting ready to do some work at lunch and preparing for the FED at 2pm, a quick review of
the tumbnails and the scanner plays reveals a potential trade on FNSR on the 30 minute chart. This play had
been on a climactic decline watch going into lunch, and now has produced a texbook NRB on the 30 minute
chart at a reversal time of day. Since NRB’s are one of the most powerful reversal signs, this trade will be taken
even though it is during lunch time, however the risk will be kept in check for that same reason. A 500 share long
will be taken on the trigger with a $125 risk.
Trade Mgmn’t – Looking for a 2:1 move or better on the reversal, which based on the 30 minute chart set up
may take a while , so this cannot be over managed with too tight a stop on a small time frame without greatly
increasing the odds of being stopped out prematurely. Once a 1:1 taraget is reached the stop will be raised to
break even. At that point an add in reduce will be considered on a small timeframe as long as a breakeven stop
can be maintained and we are not getting to close to the FED at 2pm since this position will be flat no matter
what by that time. At 2:1 the stop will be raised to lock in the 1:1 profits and again a partial exit will be
considered but the goal will be to let it ride into 2pm while trailing on a small time frame.
SSO
Trade thoughts – Looking to play the FED announcment and wanting to play the overall market through the
SPY, so the SSO will be stalked since the SPY is out of the price range for a level 4 account. The goal will be to
find a scalp opportunity after the first 15 minutes of trading following the FED announcement. Market moves
can be very volatile after the announcment, and even after the first 15 minutes are completed, so the idea is to
find a small time frame scalp set up and look for a quick move to be in and out and then done trading for the
day. Having mentally locked in $1k in profits prior to lunch, and now currently being up over $1,500, the goal is
to keep pressing and go for the $2,000 day or better, while also improving the current mental trail stop on the
overall profitability. Since this will be the last trade of the day (win, lose, or draw) the mental stop is raised to
$1,250 leving $250 to risk, and if a 2:1 scalp can be achieved the $2k day is within reach.
Trade Mgmn’t – Looking for a scalp opportunity on the one minute chart after the first 15 minutes of trading
post FED. Expecting the move to be fast so there will not be any attempts to add and reduce unless the move
greatly exceedes expectations with no signs of momentum being interrupted. Once a 1:1 target is reached the
stop will be raised to break even, at 2:1, or once up 2k for the day, profits will be taken and/or the stop will be
extremely tight to protect the daily profit goal.