Sign in Home News Sport Reel Worklife Travel Future More Search

Home US Election Coronavirus Video World US & Canada UK Business Tech Science Stories More

US Election Results States A-Z

ADVERTISEMENT

US election 2020 polls: Who Top Stories

is ahead - Trump or Biden? Trump and Biden predict win but

election goes to wire
By The Visual and Data Journalism Team
Watch the BBC's election results TV special and
BBC News
get text updates here as results come in from
11 hours ago key states.

1 day ago
US election 2020

US election on knife edge in key

states
23 minutes ago

Rollercoaster fight for control of

Congress
2 hours ago

ADVERTISEMENT

Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump

remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee

Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama's vice-president but has been
in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the

mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We'll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can
and can't tell us about who will win the election.

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the
country as a whole, but they're not necessarily a good way to predict the result Features
of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three
million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost - that's because the
US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn't
always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most
national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent
months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
'Young black people need role
models to see'
Who's ahead in national polls?

DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN

BIDEN TRUMP
52% 44%
What does developing a Covid-19
Trend line showing average voting intention based on individual polls vaccine look like?

Show individual polls

Election day

60
TREND
02 Nov

52% In pictures: Trump and Biden

50
through the years

44%
40

30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 03 Nov

The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days The young people taking their
and creates trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of country to court over oil
the set of numbers.

See individual polls

By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of
percentage points separated Mr Trump and his rival in the days before the
election.
Rescuers rush to save beached pilot
whales

More on US Election 2020

A simple guide to the US election

What to look out for on election night

Finding positivity in lockdown
When might we get a result? through photography

Trump or Biden? You decide

How to follow the election on the BBC

Full coverage of the US election

Bushfire koalas going back to the

wild

Which states will decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less
important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are
just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning.
These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as
battleground states. Three elders reveal what it takes to
be a leader

How new lockdowns are changing

life across Europe

Most Read

US Election 2020: Results

and exit poll in maps and 1
charts

US election 2020 polls: Who

2
is ahead - Trump or Biden?

US Election 2020: Results

show tight Trump-Biden 3
race in key states

US election 2020: Why don't

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is we have a US election 4
given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress - result?
House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a
candidate needs to hit 270 to win. New Zealand: Book pulled
aXer author criticises Maori 5
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral
tattoo
college votes on offer than others so candidates oYen spend a lot more time
campaigning in them.
A68 iceberg on collision path
6
What is the electoral college? with South Georgia

Earwax test could reveal

7
stress levels

US election 2020: What is

8
the electoral college?
Who's leading in the battleground US Election 2020:
states? Republicans and Democrats 9
battle for control of Congress
At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden -
although the margins have tightened in recent days. Vienna shooting: Arrests
aXer 'freed jihadist' kills 10
He appears to be ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three four
industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch
victory in 2016.
ADVERTISEMENT

Ad
Latest polling averages in battleground states

State BIDEN TRUMP Who won in 2016?

Arizona 47.9% 47.0% Trump by 3.6%

Florida 47.9% 47.0% Trump by 1.2% Top Comcast Internet Deals

iresults.com Open
Georgia 47.2% 48.2% Trump by 5.2%
ADVERTISEMENT

Iowa 45.6% 47.6% Trump by 9.5%

BRITISH EXPAT?
Michigan 50.0% 45.8% Trump by 0.2%
AVOID LOSING UP TO 55%
Minnesota 48.0% 43.7% Clinton by 1.5% OF YOUR UK PENSION

Nevada 48.7% 46.3% Clinton by 2.4%

New Hampshire 53.4% 42.4% Clinton by 0.4%

North Carolina 47.6% 47.8% Trump by 3.7%

Ohio 46.3% 47.3% Trump by 8.2%

Pennsylvania 48.7% 47.5% Trump by 0.7%

Texas 46.5% 47.8% Trump by 9.1%

Virginia 51.7% 40.3% Clinton by 5.4%

Wisconsin 51.0% 44.3% Trump by 0.8%

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 3 November

For Mr Trump, it's the battleground states he won big in 2016 that his
campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio
and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it looks much closer in all three
this time.

That's one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-
election as low as things stand.

The Economist thinks Mr Biden is "very likely" to beat Mr Trump while

FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, sees Mr Biden as "favoured" to
win the election but says the president could still come out on top.

What has Trump said about your country?

Who won the presidential debates?

GETTY IMAGES

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump's combative

approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.

A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight aYerwards suggested it was a good

night for Mr Biden.

Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for
Mr Trump - a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people
said the debate made them feel "annoyed".

In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to

help police the arguments.

But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a
much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested
viewers thought Mr Biden's performance was more impressive.

A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better
job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared
to 35% for the president.

So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it's unlikely to have been

enough to change the balance of the race on its own.

Key takeaways from the Trump-Biden showdown

Has Covid-19 affected Trump's numbers?

We only had a couple of days to mull over the first debate before President
Trump's bombshell tweet in the early hours of 2 October revealed he and the
first lady had tested positive for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the
year, the focus had shiYed to the Supreme Court aYer the death of long-
serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So Mr Trump's positive coronavirus test put his response to the pandemic,

which has claimed the lives of more than 230,000 people in the US, back
under the spotlight.

According to data from an ABC News/Ipsos poll, just 35% of Americans

approve of how the president has handled the crisis. That figure climbs among
Republicans, but only to 76%.

On his own health, 72% of respondents said that Mr Trump did not take the
"risk of contracting the virus seriously enough," while the same number said he
failed to take "the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal
health".

A similar Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that about half of respondents

believed he could have avoided contracting the disease altogether if he had
practised greater social distancing and worn a face mask.

Why are Covid-19 infections rising again in US?

Can we trust the polls?

Can we believe the polls this time?

It's easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President
Trump frequently does exactly that. But it's not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points,
but that doesn't mean they were wrong, since she won three million more
votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly

represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in
some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all.
Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there's even more uncertainty than normal due to the
coronavirus pandemic and the effect it's having on both the economy and how
people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.

Could postal voting upend the US election?

What questions do you have about the US election?

The US election process can be confusing. The BBC is here to help make sense
of it. Please put your questions below.

What questions do you have about the US election?

Your contact info

We'll be in touch if we look into your question.

Name Email address Contact number

Location

Age

Are you willing to be contacted by the BBC?

I am over 16 years old
I accept the Terms of Service

Submit

In some cases a selection of your comments and questions will be published, displaying your name
and location as you provide it unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be
published.

At no time should you endanger yourself or others, take any unnecessary risks or infringe any
laws.

The BBC retains the right to select from these contributions based on editorial requirements and
subject to online terms and conditions and BBC editorial guidelines. For more information about
how the BBC handles your personal data, see here.

Made with Hearken | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

If you can't see the form, you may need to view the site on a desktop.

In some cases, your question will be published, displaying your name, age and
location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will
never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and
privacy policy.

Written and produced by Mike Hills and Will Dahlgreen. Design by Irene de la
Torre Arenas. Development by Katie Hassell, Marcos Gurgel, Steven Connor and
Shilpa Saraf.

Related Topics

US election 2020 Republican Party Joe Biden Donald Trump Democratic Party

US politics

More on this story

US election 2020: A really simple guide

6 days ago

Donald Trump policies: Where does the president stand on key issues?
28 September

Joe Biden: Where does Joe Biden stand on key issues?

28 September

US election 2020: Has Trump delivered on his promises?

15 October

BBC News Services

On your mobile On smart speakers Get news alerts Contact BBC News

Home Sport Worklife Future Music Weather

News Reel Travel Culture TV Sounds

Terms of Use About the BBC Privacy Policy Cookies Accessibility Help Parental Guidance Contact the BBC

Get Personalised Newsletters Why you can trust the BBC Advertise with us AdChoices / Do Not Sell My Info

© 2020 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.