BACHELOR OF THE SCIENCE OF ENGINEERING IN CIVIL

ENGINEERING

Lecture No. 02

INVESTMENT APPRAISAL

By
Ch. QS. Gayan Fernando
Chartered Quantity Surveyor/ Lecturer
B.Sc. (Hons) in QS, LLB (Hons)
M.Sc. in CL&DS, Dip. in Arb., AIQSSL.
 CAPITAL AND CAPITAL
BUDGETING
⚫ Capital
Stock of assets that will generate a flow of income in
the future.
⚫ Capital budgeting
Planning process for allocating all expenditures that
will have an expected benefit to the firm for more than
one year

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 Nature of Investment
Decisions
⚫ The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as
the capital budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions.

⚫ The firm’s investment decisions would generally include

expansion, acquisition, modernisation and
replacement of the long-term assets. Sale of a division
or business (divestment) is also as an investment decision.

⚫ Decisions like the change in the methods of sales

distribution, or an advertisement campaign or a research
and development programme have long-term implications
for the firm’s expenditures and benefits, and therefore,
they should also be evaluated as investment decisions. 3
Evaluation Criteria
Methods of Investment Appraisal
⚫ Net Present Value (NPV)
⚫ Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
⚫ Benefit-cost ratio (Profitability Index) (PI)
⚫ Payback Period (PP)
⚫ Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

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 Net Present Value Method
⚫ Cash flows of the investment project should be
forecasted based on realistic assumptions.
⚫ Appropriate discount rate should be identified to
discount the forecasted cash flows. The appropriate
discount rate is the project’s opportunity cost of
capital.
⚫ Present value of cash flows should be calculated using
the opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.
⚫ The project should be accepted if NPV is positive
(NPV > 0).

5
Net Present Value Method
⚫ Net present value should be found out by subtracting
present value of cash outflows from present value of cash
inflows. The formula for the net present value can be
written as follows:

 C1 C2 C3 Cn 
NPV =  + + + + n 
− C0
 (1 + k ) (1 + k ) (1 + k ) (1 + k ) 
2 3

n
Ct
NPV = 
where:
− C
+ t 0
t =1 (1 k ) C0 = initial cash outlay on project
Ct = net cash flow generated by project at time t
n = life of the project
k = required rate of return
6
Acceptance Rule
⚫ Accept the project when NPV is positive
NPV > 0
⚫ Reject the project when NPV is negative
NPV < 0
⚫ May accept the project when NPV is zero
NPV = 0
⚫ The NPV method can be used to select between
mutually exclusive projects; the one with the higher
NPV should be selected.

7
 Questions - NPV

i. Project X costs Rs 2,500 Mn now and is expected to

generate year-end cash inflows of Rs 900 Mn, Rs 800
Mn, Rs 700 Mn, Rs 600 Mn and Rs 500 Mn in years 1
through 5. The opportunity cost of the capital may be
assumed to be 10 per cent. Appreciate.

ii. A project cost is Rs 15,000 Mn and is expected to out

flow 800 Mn and 700 Mn in first three months
respectively. This project is expected to generate cash
flows of Rs. 8,000 Mn, Rs. 7000 Mn, Rs. 6,000 Mn
respectively at end of each year from third year.
Opportunity cost is 8%. Appreciate.
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Evaluation of the NPV Method
NPV is most acceptable investment rule for the
following reasons:
⚫ Time value
⚫ Measure of true profitability
⚫ Value-additivity
⚫ Shareholder value
Limitations:
⚫ Involved cash flow estimation
⚫ Discount rate difficult to determine
⚫ Mutually exclusive projects
⚫ Ranking of projects
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Internal Rate of Return Method
⚫ Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which
the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive
and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.
Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the
attractiveness of a project or investment.
C1 C2 C3 Cn
C0 = + + + +
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) 2
(1 + r ) 3
(1 + r ) n
n
where:
Ct
C0 =  C0 = initial cash outlay on project
t =1 (1 + r )t
n
Ct Ct = net cash flow generated by project at tim

t =1 (1 + r ) t
− C0 = 0
n = life of the project 10

r = internal rate of return

Acceptance Rule
⚫ Accept the project when r > k.
⚫ Reject the project when r < k.
⚫ May accept the project when r = k.
⚫ In case of independent projects, IRR and NPV
rules will give the same results if the firm has no
shortage of funds.

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Calculation of IRR
Trial and Error Method
⚫ The approach is to select any discount rate to compute
the present value of cash inflows.
⚫ If the calculated present value of the expected cash
inflow is lower than the present value of cash outflows,
a lower rate should be tried.
⚫ On the other hand, a higher value should be tried if the
present value of inflows is higher than the present value
of outflows.
⚫ This process will be repeated unless the net present
value becomes zero.
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Calculation of IRR
Graph Method

⚫ Assume distribution linear

distribution between
Discount rate and NPV
⚫ Calculate Discount rate by
using gradient

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 Questions - IRR

i. Project Y costs Rs 3,500 Mn now and is expected to

generate year-end cash inflows of Rs 1300 Mn, Rs 900
Mn, Rs 900 Mn, Rs 800 Mn and Rs 700 Mn in years 1
through 5. Appreciate by using trail and error method.
ii. A project cost is Rs 12,000 Mn and is expected to
generate cash flows of Rs. 8,000 Mn, Rs. 5,000 Mn, Rs.
5,000 Mn respectively at end of each year for next 3
years. Appreciate by using graph method.

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Evaluation of IRR Method
⚫ IRR method has following merits:
⚫ Time value
⚫ Profitability measure
⚫ Acceptance rule
⚫ Shareholder value
⚫ IRR method may suffer from:
⚫ Multiple rates
⚫ Mutually exclusive projects
⚫ Value additivity

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Benefit Cost Ratio (Profitability
Index)

⚫ Profitability index (PI) is the ratio of the present value of

cash inflows, at the required rate of return, to the initial
cash outflow of the investment.

PV of net cash flows

Benefit Cost Ratio =
Initial cash outlay

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Acceptance Rule
⚫ The following are the PI acceptance rules:
⚫ Accept the project when PI is greater than one. PI > 1
⚫ Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI < 1
⚫ May accept the project when PI is equal to one. PI = 1
⚫ The project with positive NPV will have PI greater than
one. PI less than means that the project’s NPV is
negative.
⚫ [Explore the relationship among NPV, IRR, and PI]

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 Questions - PI

i. The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000 and it

can generate cash inflow of Rs 40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs
50,000 and Rs 20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10
per cent rate of discount. Appreciate.

ii. The initial cash outlay of the project is Rs. 100,000 Mn

and it can be gain by cash inflow of Rs. 40,000 Mn, Rs.
30,000 Mn, Rs. 50,000 Mn and Rs. 20,000 Mn in year 1
through 4. Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.
Appreciate.
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Evaluation of PI Method
⚫ It recognises the time value of money.
⚫ It is consistent with the shareholder value maximisation
principle. A project with PI greater than one will have
positive NPV and if accepted, it will increase
shareholders’ wealth.
⚫ In the PI method, since the present value of cash
inflows is divided by the initial cash outflow, it is a
relative measure of a project’s profitability.
⚫ Like NPV method, PI criterion also requires calculation
of cash flows and estimate of the discount rate. In
practice, estimation of cash flows and discount rate pose
problems.
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Payback Period
⚫ Payback is the number of years required to recover the
original cash outlay invested in a project.
⚫ If the project generates constant annual cash inflows, the
payback period can be computed by dividing cash outlay
by the annual cash inflow.
For Even Cash Floor
Initial Investment C0
Payback = =
Annual Cash Inflow C

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Payback Period
⚫ In case of un-equal cash flows, payback period can be
found out adding up cash inflow until the total is equal to
initial out lay.
For Unequal Cash Floor

A = Last period with negative cash flow

B = Absolute value of cumulative cash flow at the end of period of A
C = actual cash flow during the period after A

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Acceptance Rule
⚫ The project would be accepted if its payback period is
less than the maximum or standard payback period set
by management.

⚫ As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the

project, which has the shortest payback period and
lowest ranking to the project with highest payback
period.

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 Question - Payback Period
i. Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000 and
yields annual cash inflow of Rs 12,500 for 7 years.
Calculate the payback period for the project? Assume a 10
per cent rate of discount.

ii. Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs 20,000,

and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs 7,000; Rs
4,000; and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years. What is the
project’s payback? Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.
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Evaluation of Payback
⚫ Certain virtues:
⚫ Simplicity
⚫ Cost effective
⚫ Short-term effects
⚫ Risk shield
⚫ Liquidity
⚫ Serious limitations:
⚫ Cash flows after payback
⚫ Cash flows ignored
⚫ Cash flow patterns
⚫ Administrative difficulties
⚫ Inconsistent with shareholder value
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 Discounted Payback Period
⚫ The discounted payback period is the number of periods
taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present value
basis.
⚫ The discounted payback period still fails to consider the cash
flows occurring after the payback period.
3 DISCOUNTED PAYBACK I LLUSTRATED
Cash Flows
(Rs) Simple Discounted NPV at
C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 PB PB 10%
P -4,000 3,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 2 yrs – –
PV of cash flows -4,000 2,727 826 751 683 2.6 yrs 987
Q -4,000 0 4,000 1,000 2,000 2 yrs – –
PV of cash flows -4,000 0 3,304 751 1,366 2.9 yrs 1,421

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Question – Discounted Payback
i. Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000 and
yields annual cash inflow of Rs 12,500 for 7 years.
Calculate the discounted payback period for the project?
Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.

ii. Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs 20,000,

and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs 7,000; Rs
4,000; and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years. What is the
project’s payback? Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.
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Accounting Rate of Return
Method (ARR)
⚫ The accounting rate of return is the ratio of the average
after-tax profit [PAT] divided by the average
investment. The average investment would be equal to
half of the original investment if it were depreciated
constantly.
Average PAT
ARR =
Average Investment

⚫ A variation of the ARR method is to divide average

earnings after taxes by the original cost of the project
instead of the average cost.
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Acceptance Rule
⚫ This method will accept all those projects whose ARR
is higher than the minimum rate established by the
management and reject those projects which have ARR
less than the minimum rate.

⚫ This method would rank a project as number one if it

has highest ARR and lowest rank would be assigned to
the project with lowest ARR.

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Question - ARR
i. Dunlop (Pvt.) Ltd decided to invest in a project. Their cash
inflows and outflows are as follows:
Year 0 1 2 3
Cash outflow 240

Cash inflow 0 90 140 100

Salvage 20
Value

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Question - ARR
ii. XYA distributors is considering opening a new sales outlet in
Galle. Two possible sites have been identified. Site A has a
capacity of 30,000m². It sill require an average investment of LKR
6 million and will produce an average profit of LKR 600,000 a
year. Site B has a capacity of 20,000m². It will require an
investment of LKR 4 million and will produce an average profit of
LKR 500,000 per year.
What is the ARR of each investment opportunity?
Which site would you select and why?

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Evaluation of ARR Method
⚫ The ARR method may claim some merits
⚫ Simplicity
⚫ Accounting data
⚫ Accounting profitability
⚫ Serious shortcoming
⚫ Cash flows ignored
⚫ Time value ignored
⚫ Arbitrary cut-off

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Exercise
Q.
SKL (Pvt.) Ltd., a property developer is considering four investment option A, B,
C and D. All options incur same initial investment of LKR 80 Mn. Net cash flow
of each option for next five years are given below.
You are working at SKL (Pvt.) Ltd. as a manager (project operation). You are
expert in project appraisal area. The Developer seeks your advice to choose
profitable option.
•Rank the projects in accordance with Payback Period, Discounted Payback
Period, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Profitability Index and
Accounting Rate of Return. Assume discount rate is 10%.
•If all projects are independent, which project your going to recommend for your
organization. Prove your answer with reasons.
Net cash flow (LKR Mn.)
Projects
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
A 20 25 34 42
B 20 20 23 22
C 28 28 28 28
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D 19 25 38 36