Population Studies

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Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the

developing world: The role of education

John Bongaarts, Barbara S. Mensch & Ann K. Blanc

To cite this article: John Bongaarts, Barbara S. Mensch & Ann K. Blanc (2017) Trends in the age
at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education, Population Studies, 71:2,
139-154, DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986

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Population Studies, 2017
Vol. 71, No. 2, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986

Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the

developing world: The role of education

John Bongaarts, Barbara S. Mensch and Ann K. Blanc

The Population Council

Girls’ school participation has expanded considerably in the developing world over the last few decades, a
phenomenon expected to have substantial consequences for reproductive behaviour. Using Demographic
and Health Survey data from 43 countries, this paper examines trends and differentials in the mean ages
at three critical life-cycle events for young women: first sexual intercourse, first marriage, and first birth.
We measure the extent to which trends in the timing of these events are driven either by the changing
educational composition of populations or by changes in behaviour within education groups. Mean ages
have risen over time in all regions for all three events, except age at first sex in Latin America and the
Caribbean. Results from a decomposition exercise indicate that increases in educational attainment, rather
than trends within education groups, are primarily responsible for the overall trends. Possible
explanations for these findings are discussed.

Keywords: trends; transition to adulthood; life cycle; first sex; first marriage; first birth; developing world;
decomposition; education; educational composition

[Submitted June 2016; Final version accepted December 2016]

Introduction higher likelihood of maternal death (Blanc et al.

A successful transition to adulthood includes ade-
quate preparation for adult roles and the capacity
to make informed decisions about the timing of
key life events (Lloyd 2005). First sexual inter-
course, first marriage, and first birth are among
the most consequential of these events. Taking on
the roles of sexual partner, spouse, and parent too
early may undermine the success of this transition,
jeopardize a young person’s health and well-being,
and have deleterious effects on the health and
well-being of her offspring (Lloyd 2005). In less-
developed-country settings, where HIV is endemic
and where young women suffer disproportionately
from sexually transmitted infections (STIs), the
earlier sex is initiated, the longer the exposure to
the risk of infection. On average, the younger the
age of a woman at marriage, the larger the age
difference between spouses, the less agency
women are reported to have within marriage, and
the higher the likelihood of marital dissolution
(Singh and Samara 1996; Mensch 2005). And
finally, early childbirth, before achieving full phys-
ical maturity around age 16, is associated with a
2013; Nove et al. 2014), infant death, and other
poor child health outcomes (Finlay et al. 2011).
Moreover, the timing of births has an effect on
population growth. For all these reasons, there is
considerable interest on the part of researchers
and policymakers in trends that are the focus of
this study: ages at first sex, marriage/union, and
childbirth in the developing world.
The paper begins with a review of the literature
on the impact of women’s schooling on fertility
and on the timing of first sex, first marriage, and
first birth. This is followed by a detailed empirical
analysis of levels and trends in the ages at these
life-cycle events, based on data collected by Demo-
graphic and Health Surveys (DHS) since 1986 in 43
less developed countries in Asia and Northern
Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and
sub-Saharan Africa. The mean ages at events are
estimated with a method that allows period-based
measurements to provide more up-to-date results
than the conventional cohort-based approach used
in earlier studies. Girls’ school participation has
expanded considerably in many of these countries
over the last few decades, with substantial

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140 John Bongaarts et al.
consequences for reproductive behaviour. We
examine the extent to which trends in the timing
of events are driven by changing educational attain-
ment within countries—that is, the educational com-
position of the population—or by changes in
behaviour within groups that share the same level
of education. The discussion and conclusion sum-
marize the main findings of this analysis.
Background
The effect of girls’ schooling on subsequent
fertility
Over 35 years ago, Caldwell (1980) argued that
mass education—which, he asserted, altered tra-
ditional family production and family dynamics—
was the dominant force behind fertility transitions.
Since then an extensive demographic literature
has documented and analysed the inverse associ-
ation in the developing world between years of
schooling attained by women and the number of
children ever-born (Jejeebhoy 1995; Martin 1995;
Ainsworth et al. 1996; Bledsoe et al. 1999). The
magnitude of education differentials among
women varies between countries and the relation-
ship is not always monotonic (Jejeebhoy 1995;
Bledsoe et al. 1999); for example, some narrowing
appears to emerge as countries reach the end of
the transition (Bongaarts 2003). Nevertheless,
differences in fertility between the more and less
educated are observed in nearly all countries.
Researchers have discussed a number of mechan-
isms underlying the association between formal
schooling of girls and subsequent fertility, fertility
preferences, or both, although data are often
lacking to support these assertions. A number of
factors that underlie the negative gradient
between education and fertility have been men-
tioned, including greater autonomy, exposure to
new gender and childbearing norms, improved
knowledge about behaviours that enhance the
health of women and children, development of
social capital to navigate health institutions, altera-
tion of childbearing preferences, growth in
women’s earning potential, and the concomitant
rise in the opportunity cost of women’s time, assor-
tative mating, and increased material aspirations
(Jejeebhoy 1995; Subbarao and Raney 1995; Ains-
worth et al. 1996; Appleton 1996; Bledsoe et al.
1999; Diamond et al. 1999; Lloyd and Mensch
1999; Basu 2002; Ferré 2009; Behrman 2015;
Grant 2015). Literacy has also been said to
provide the tools for learning and acquiring knowl-
edge (Jejeebhoy 1995), thus improving women’s
ability to understand and absorb family planning
messages and to consider the desirability of a
smaller family (Bledsoe and Cohen 1993). Most of
the hypothesized effects are direct but some are
indirect and work through, for example, improved
child survival and delayed marriage, for which
many of the mechanisms overlap with those listed
above (Ainsworth et al. 1996).
Girls’ schooling and the timing of reproductive
events
Recently, with the unparalleled growth in the popu-
lation of young people, increasing attention has
been devoted to identifying conditions for a success-
ful transition to adulthood and the role of girls’
schooling in the timing of reproductive events
(Lloyd 2005, 2010; Mensch et al. 2005; Clark and
Mathur 2012; Grant 2015). DHS data indicate that
girls who are enrolled in school are less likely to
report initiating sex than their same-age counter-
parts who are not enrolled (Lloyd 2009). DHS
data also indicate later ages at sexual initiation,
first marriage, and childbearing among those with
more years of schooling (Lloyd 2005). In the
majority of less developed countries, schooling is
considered incompatible with marriage and child-
bearing, so that those who remain in school
during adolescence delay marriage and childbear-
ing, and those who marry early drop out of school
(Lloyd and Mensch 2008). These associations have
led many to argue that increased schooling is the
dominant force behind the observed rise in age at
marriage (United Nations Dept. of Economic and
Social Affairs 2002). However, a regression analysis
of the amount of change in early marriage that
might be expected, based on change in educational
attainment from older to younger cohorts in 39
DHS countries, revealed that in 15 countries the
observed change was lower than the expected
change. In about half of these 15 countries, the
probability of early marriage actually increased
between cohorts despite the increase in schooling
(Mensch et al. 2005). An earlier analysis of
change in four Latin American countries from the
mid-1970s to the mid-1980s also concluded that
increases in education during that period were not
associated with later marriage, although improve-
ments in education did account for a large pro-
portion of observed fertility decline (Weinberger
et al. 1989).

The endogeneity of schooling and
reproductive behaviour
The question of whether the association between
girls’ education and reproductive behaviour in the
developing world is causal has generated consider-
able interest in the last few years. Are the observed
differentials in reproductive behaviour between the
better and less well educated a result of selectivity
of those with higher grade attainment? Using data
from sub-Saharan Africa, researchers have
addressed the potential endogeneity of schooling
(Ferré 2009; Behrman 2015; Glick et al. 2015;
Grant 2015). One study found that the failure to
address endogeneity led to ‘substantial overestima-
tion’ of the effect of schooling on the timing of mar-
riage and childbirth among young women in
Madagascar, although a significant effect was still
observed (Glick et al. 2015). Three studies have
taken advantage of natural experiments in the
form of policy reforms in order to ‘instrument’ for
years of schooling, and two found that education
still had significant effects on fertility timing
(Kenya: Ferré 2009) and desired family size
(Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia: Behrman 2015).
The one exception is a study by Grant (2015) that
investigated the effect of the introduction of free
primary education and subsequent expansion of
secondary schooling in Malawi. These increases in
girls’ education did not lead to a delay in age at
first birth, which she argued may be because of
poor and declining school quality with the large
influx of students.
Declining school quality and reproductive
behaviour
The situation in Malawi is unlikely to be unique and
prompts consideration of whether the benefits of
education for reproductive behaviour will be rea-
lized in countries where expansion of school partici-
pation is not accompanied by significant
improvements in learning outcomes. Basu and Ste-
phenson (2005) observed that child survival was
higher for mothers in India who did not complete
primary school relative to mothers with no edu-
cation; it would appear that even a small amount
of schooling, likely insufficient to confer literacy,
may yield advantages in providing skills to
improve health. As Basu (2002, p. 1780) has
argued elsewhere, there may be benefits to school
attendance ‘without there being much that is com-
pellingly positive about the typical developing
Trends in age at reproductive transitions 141
country schooling experience’. The question
remains, however, whether the effects of girls’ edu-
cation on reproductive behaviour that have been
observed historically are compromised by the
declining school quality that has accompanied the
recent expansion of schooling in many less devel-
oped countries (Pritchett 2013). Will schooling,
given low and perhaps declining quality, continue
to have a dampening effect on marriage and ferti-
lity, and, if it does, are the observed effects a func-
tion of more women becoming educated or of a
change in preferences, for example, diffusion of
ideas regarding the negative consequences of child
marriage and early childbearing?
Contributions of this analysis to the literature
The preceding summary of the current literature on
the association between education and reproductive
behaviour in the developing world sets the context
for our analysis and raises important questions best
answered by in-depth country analyses. We contrib-
ute to this extensive literature by investigating
whether: (1) increases or decreases in age at the
time of reproductive events are observed in recent
surveys and (2) if so, to what extent those changes
are associated with shifts in the educational compo-
sition of the population of females, and to what
extent they are associated with alteration in behav-
iour within education groups. Given that girls’ edu-
cation has been promoted as the priority focus for
twenty-first-century population policy (Lutz 2014),
an examination of the contribution of girls’ schooling
to recent changes in the timing of first sex, marriage,
and childbearing is warranted.
Data and methods
The primary sources of data for this study were DHS
conducted in less developed countries since 1986.
One of the distinguishing characteristics of the
DHS is the comparability of the questionnaires. We
included in the analysis data from countries with
nationally representative surveys covering at least
two timepoints; this resulted in data from 43
countries in Asia and Northern Africa, Latin
America and the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan
Africa. To minimize sampling error in the estimates,
we excluded surveys with sample sizes of fewer
than 3,000 currently married women. The threshold
of 3,000 was selected (somewhat arbitrarily) to mini-
mize the loss of countries from the study while still
142 John Bongaarts et al.
excluding potential outliers. We also excluded
countries with a population size of less than 2
million in 2000 and countries with inter-survey inter-
vals of five or fewer years. Several of the smallest
countries and island nations are outliers in our ana-
lyses for reasons that are not entirely clear, but
high migration among young adults could be a
factor. Short inter-survey intervals produce unstable
trend estimates. If a country had a first survey that
did not collect information on the timing of first
sex, the next available survey with such data was
selected.
The following countries were included in the
analysis:
Asia and Northern Africa: Bangladesh, Cambodia,
Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Morocco, Nepal,
Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Bolivia, Brazil,
Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Peru.
Eastern and Southern Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanza-
nia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Middle and Western Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso,
Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC), Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea,
Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo.
In parts of the results and discussion, the latter two
groups are combined and referred to as sub-Saharan
Africa. Details of the survey years are provided in
Appendix A.
For each of the surveys we estimated the period
mean ages at first sex, first marriage, and first
birth for the five years before the date of the
survey, by highest level of education attended (i.e.,
no schooling, primary, and secondary or higher).
(Throughout this study the term ‘marriage’ includes
consensual union.) The method for calculating these
mean ages is described in Bongaarts and Blanc
(2015) and summarized in Appendix B. The
period mean age at a life-cycle event is defined as
the mean age at which women would experience
the event if they lived through the reproductive
years having the age-specific event rates observed
in a particular period. The calculation of the mean
uses five-year age-specific rates of events as
reported by female respondents in the DHS. This
general approach is widely used to calculate
current mean ages at first birth in countries with
vital statistics (Human Fertility Database 2015)
but is not used in country reports published by
the DHS. Instead, DHS reports provide median
ages at past events as reported by women of differ-
ent current ages. These cohort medians have the
advantage of being available for all DHS surveys
but there are also drawbacks: (1) the median
refers to past experience of cohorts and is therefore
not as current as is preferable for many analytic
purposes; (2) the retrospective reporting of the
date of life-cycle events may suffer from recall
errors that are likely to increase as time since the
event increases; and (3) the cohort median as calcu-
lated by DHS is not independent of the quantum of
first events and can change over time, even if the
mean is constant. For these reasons, we prefer the
period mean as our primary indicator of the
timing of first birth, marriage, and sex. Regional
means are unweighted averages of country means
so that each country is given equal weight.
Limitations
Our analysis has several limitations. First, the
number of countries included in each region
ranged from eight in Latin America and the Carib-
bean to 14 in Middle and Western Africa. The
countries for which we had data are not necessarily
representative of their regions. The proportion of
the regional population covered by these countries
is 90 per cent in Middle and Western Africa,
75 per cent in Eastern and Southern Africa, 74 per
cent in Asia and Northern Africa, and 54 per cent
in Latin America and the Caribbean. Second,
several countries included in the analysis had not
had a very recent DHS survey. The most recent
survey took place on average in 2010 but the
range is from 1996 to 2014. It is possible that if
we had more recent data, particularly for Latin
America, and could include more of the populous
countries (e.g., Mexico and Argentina), the results
would be somewhat different. Third, the number
of years of schooling represented by the primary
or secondary level varies among countries. Finally,
the aggregate analyses mask important country
trends and our general explanations for observed
aggregate trends, by design, may not reflect particu-
lar country experiences.
Results: mean ages at first sex, marriage, and
birth
Levels
Figure 1 plots the unweighted regional averages for
the country-level means of each of the three life-
cycle events: first sex, first marriage, and first birth
 Trends in age at reproductive transitions 143

Figure 1 Mean ages at first sex, first marriage, and first birth for women, averages by world region, c.2010
Notes: Regional averages are unweighted. Data are from the most recent survey in each country (c.2010).
Average age at first sex was not collected in several countries in the Asia/Northern Africa region.
Source: Authors’ calculations from DHS data on 43 countries, 1996–2014.

as estimated from the most recent DHS survey
(c.2010) in 43 countries. Substantial regional differ-
ences are apparent, with countries in Middle and
Western Africa having the lowest average values
(17.9, 20.3, and 20.9 years for these events, respect-
ively), and Eastern and Southern Africa, and Latin
America and the Caribbean, having intermediate
values for first sex and birth. Latin America and
the Caribbean had the highest age at first marriage
(21.7) and Asia and Northern Africa the highest
age at first birth (22.8). The average age at first sex
in Asia and Northern Africa was not available
because in several of the countries in this region
the question about first sex was not included in
surveys.
The time between the average ages at first sex
and first marriage was around two and a half
years in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America
and the Caribbean, indicating a substantial preva-
lence of premarital sex. The difference between
the average ages at first marriage and first birth
ranged from 0.1 years in Eastern and Southern
Africa to 1.4 years in Asia and Northern Africa. It
should be noted that the differences in intervals
between average ages at successive events are not
equal to the average interval between these events
at the individual level, because some women who
have sex never marry and some who marry never
have a child.
The averages plotted in Figure 1 conceal con-
siderable variation among country estimates. The
figure also gives no indication of the correlation
between means of successive events. To examine
these issues, Figure 2 plots the mean age at first
marriage against the mean age at first sex for indi-
vidual countries. A positive correlation (r = 0.58)
exists between these variables, with the diagonal
line representing the points at which the means
are equal. It is noteworthy that in all but one
country the mean age at marriage was either
equal to or greater than the mean age at first sex.
The difference between the mean age at sex and
marriage reached a high of five years in Haiti,
where premarital sex was common and marriage
was late.
Figure 3 shows a strong correlation (r = 0.84)
between country mean ages at first birth and first mar-
riage. The majority of countries fall above the diagonal
line, which indicates that the mean age at birth is
higher than the mean age at first marriage. However,
a substantial number show the reverse, which is
expected in countries with premarital childbearing.
Trends
To examine trends in the various indicators, we com-
pared the values estimated for the most recent survey
144 John Bongaarts et al.

Figure 2 Mean age at first marriage by mean age at first sex, women in 40 countries, c.2010
Note: The diagonal line represents the points at which the two means are equal. Data are from the most recent
survey in each country (c.2010). This figure shows 40 countries rather than 43, because average age at first sex
was not collected in several countries in the Asia/Northern Africa region.
Source: As for Figure 1.

Figure 3 Mean age at first birth by mean age at first marriage, women in 43 countries, c.2010
Note: The diagonal line represents the points at which the two means are equal. Data are from the most recent
survey in each country (c.2010).
Source: As for Figure 1.
 Trends in age at reproductive transitions 145

Figure 4 Trends in mean ages at first sex, first marriage, and first birth for women, by world region, c.1993–2010
Notes: Regional averages are unweighted. Data are from the first available survey (c.1993, shown on the left-
hand side) and most recent survey (c.2010, shown on the right-hand side) in each country. Average age at
first sex was not collected in several countries in the Asia/Northern Africa region.
Source: Authors’ calculations from DHS data on 43 countries, 1986–2014.

with those observed at the first available survey. On
average the most recent surveys occurred in 2010
and the first surveys in 1993, thus giving an average
interval between surveys of 17 years. (The first and
last surveys in some countries deviate significantly
from the average. For example, the first and last
surveys in Brazil were conducted in 1986 and 1996,
respectively.) As shown in Figure 4, the regional
mean ages at reproductive events generally rose
between c.1993 and c.2010. In particular, the mean
ages at first sex, first marriage, and first birth all
rose in sub-Saharan Africa, as they did for first mar-
riage and first birth in Asia and Northern Africa.
(This observation applies to the regional averages
of country values, and not necessarily to every indi-
vidual country.) In contrast, in Latin America and
the Caribbean, the timing of first birth did not
change significantly and the regional mean age at
first sex declined substantially. This decline occurred
in seven out of the eight Latin American and Carib-
bean countries.
The upward trends in all regional mean ages at first
marriage suggest that the prevalence of child marriage
was declining. This inference is examined in Figure 5,
which plots the trend between c.1993 and c.2010 in the
percentage of women aged 20–24 who married before
age 18, that is, who were married as children. Several
conclusions can be drawn. First, child marriage
remained very common in parts of Middle and
Western Africa in 2010, with the highest values in
Niger, Chad, and Mali (Figure 5(a)). In Asia and
Northern Africa, child marriage was high in Bangla-
desh, Nepal, and India (Figure 5(d)). Second, the
prevalence of child marriage declined in 34 countries,
but rose in nine countries (e.g., Malawi and Madagas-
car in Figure 5(b)). Third, the pace of decline between
c.1993 and c.2010 was typically rather slow. Unless this
pace accelerates, child marriage will remain wide-
spread in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Southern
Asia for the next few decades.
Results: the role of education
Trends in education
Since the early 1990s, substantial investments have
been made in achieving universal primary education
and gender parity in education, with investment accel-
erating after the adoption of the Millennium Develop-
ment Goals in 2000. Enrolment in primary school has
increased rapidly in many regions of the world and the
gender gap has narrowed, although educational
attainment levels still favour males, especially at sec-
ondary and higher levels (United Nations Dept. of
Economic and Social Affairs 2010). Levels of adult
146 John Bongaarts et al.
Figure 5 Percentage of women married before age 18, by world region, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993) and most recent survey (c.2010) in each country.
Source: As for Figure 4.
literacy have increased since 1990 in all developing
regions; for example, the percentage literate among
women in sub-Saharan Africa rose from 43 to 53 per
cent between 1990 and 2008 and from 34 to 51 per
cent in Southern and Western Asia. However, the pro-
portion of all illiterate adults that are women has
remained the same at approximately two-thirds,
even as the illiterate population has declined
(UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2010).
Figure 6 shows the shift in the educational distri-
bution of women at first birth between c.1993 and
c.2010 in the 43 countries included in our analysis.
(The educational distribution by age is weighted by
the age distribution of first births in the five years
preceding the survey, because education levels vary
considerably with age, younger cohorts having
higher levels than older cohorts.) In all regions, the
change was strongly positive. By c.2010, in all
regions except Middle and Western Africa, fewer
than one in five women had received no education;
in Middle and Western Africa 39 per cent of
women were still without any formal schooling
c.2010. In Latin America and the Caribbean and in
Asia and Northern Africa, almost two-thirds of
women had achieved at least some secondary edu-
cation c.2010, whereas less than 45 per cent had any
secondary education in the early 1990s.
Education differentials
Trends in mean age at event by region and by highest
level of education attended are plotted in Figures 7–9.
These results confirm the expected correlation with
education; in every region, for each of the three
events, and at both points in time, a higher level of
education was associated with a higher mean age.
Overall, the difference in mean age between those
with secondary and those with primary education
was much greater than the difference between
women with primary and those with no education.
Another key finding is that the trends for all edu-
cation groups together (represented by thicker lines
on the figures) had steeper positive slopes (or less
negative slopes) than the slopes of the education-
specific trends. For example, the mean age at first
birth changed little over this period for Latin
America and the Caribbean in the aggregate, but
 Trends in age at reproductive transitions 147

Figure 6 Educational distribution of women at age of first birth, by world region, c.1993–2010
Notes: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993, shown in the left-hand bar) and most recent survey
(c.2010, shown in the right-hand bar) in each country. The educational distribution by age is weighted by the
age distribution of first births in the five years preceding the survey.
Source: As for Figure 4.

the trends for the three education-specific means in weight given to the more highly educated groups in
this region were all downward. The explanation for the calculation of the overall mean rose over time,
this finding is that education levels have risen over and the weight for the less well educated groups
time in all countries and regions. As a result, the declined.

Figure 7 Trends in mean age at first sex by world region, for all women and by education level, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993, shown on the left-hand side) and most recent survey
(c.2010, shown on the right-hand side) in each country. Average age at first sex was not collected in several
countries in the Asia/Northern Africa region.
Source: As for Figure 4.
148 John Bongaarts et al.

Figure 8 Trends in mean age at first marriage by world region, for all women and by education level, c.1993–
2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993, shown on the left-hand side) and most recent survey
(c.2010, shown on the right-hand side) in each country.
Source: As for Figure 4.

Figure 9 Trends in mean age at first birth by world region, for all women and by education level, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993, shown on the left-hand side) and most recent survey
(c.2010, shown on the right-hand side) in each country.
Source: As for Figure 4.

Decomposition of trends in effect of education
The overall trend in the mean age at an event has two
distinct components:
. The ‘composition’ effect refers to the impact of
improvements in educational attainment.
These improvements increase the size of the
more highly educated groups and reduce the
size of the less well educated groups thus
raising the average pace of increase in the age
at an event because higher levels of education
are associated with a higher age at the event.
. The ‘rate’ effect refers to trends in the edu-
cation-specific means. As shown in Figures 7–
9, education-specific trends in the mean ages
at events varied among regions; they tended
to rise in sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia and
Northern Africa, and to decline in Latin
America and the Caribbean.
To quantify the role of these two factors, we under-
took a decomposition exercise, which is the same as
the one used by Weinberger et al. (1989). The
composition effect was estimated by holding edu-
cation-specific means constant while allowing the
 Trends in age at reproductive transitions 149

Figure 10 Annual change in mean age at first sex by world region, decomposed, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993) and most recent survey (c.2010) in each country. The two
components may not sum to the total change because of interaction effects. Average age at first sex was not col-
lected in several countries in the Asia/Northern Africa region.
Source: As for Figure 4.

educational composition to evolve as observed. The
rate effect was estimated by holding educational
composition constant while allowing the education-
specific means to evolve as observed. The difference
between the sum of these two components and the
observed change is the ‘interaction’ effect, which
will not be examined here.
Results are presented in Figures 10–12. For each
event and for each of the regions, three bars are pre-
sented. The white bar measures the composition
effect and the hatched bar the rate effect. The black
bar shows the observed increase or decrease in the
mean. The main finding from this analysis is that the
composition effect was positive for all three events
in all regions (except for age at first sex in Eastern/
Southern Africa) for which data were available. This
is as expected, given the universal improvements in
education levels in the large majority of less devel-
oped countries in recent decades. In contrast, the
rate effect varied in size and direction, as expected
from Figures 7–9. This effect was largely positive in
sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia and Northern

Figure 11 Annual change in mean age at first marriage by world region, decomposed, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993) and most recent survey (c.2010) in each country. The two
components may not sum to the total change because of interaction effects.
Source: As for Figure 4.
150 John Bongaarts et al.
Figure 12 Annual change in mean age at first birth by world region, decomposed, c.1993–2010
Note: Data are from the first available survey (c.1993) and most recent survey (c.2010) in each country. The two
components may not sum to the total change because of interaction effects.
Source: As for Figure 4.
Africa, but negative in Latin America and the Carib-
bean. The composition effect dominated the rate
effect for changes in first birth and first marriage.
Discussion and conclusion
At the time of the most recent DHS surveys (c.2010),
the mean ages at first birth, first marriage, and first
sex varied significantly by region, with events occur-
ring at an earlier age in sub-Saharan Africa than in
Latin America and the Caribbean or Asia and North-
ern Africa. For example, the average age at first birth
was 20.9 years in Middle and Western Africa and in
Eastern and Southern Africa, while it was 22.2 and
22.8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean and
in Asia and Northern Africa, respectively. These
differences are expected, given that on most develop-
ment indicators sub-Saharan African countries typi-
cally score lower than elsewhere.
Our examination of trends in the mean ages at life-
cycle events between c.1993 and c.2010 also showed
significant differences between regions. In sub-
Saharan Africa and in Asia and Northern Africa,
the mean ages at first sex, first marriage, and first
birth all rose during this period. These findings are
as expected with rising levels of education. In con-
trast, in Latin America and the Caribbean the
mean age at first birth remained constant and the
mean age at first sex declined. We can only speculate
why this region differed, but the combination of
increasing globalization and the declining influence
of the Catholic Church (which disapproves of
premarital sex) are likely factors. As expected, the
upward trends in age at marriage in all regions
were associated with declines in child marriage.
Although it remained high in some places, the preva-
lence of child marriage fell in all but nine of the 43
countries in our analysis.
In all regions, the average age at first birth was
higher than the average age at first marriage, which
in turn was higher than the average age at first sex.
(This average ordering of life-cycle events does not
necessarily hold for individual countries or for indi-
vidual women, because sexual initiation can occur
before, at the time of, or after marriage, and birth
can precede marriage.) The substantial gap
between age at first sex and age at first marriage in
sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America and the
Caribbean indicates a high prevalence of premarital
sex. Furthermore, the gap grew over time, suggesting
a change in the context of sexual initiation. This trend
may reflect a rising period at risk of premarital sex, as
marriage is increasingly delayed, as well as to greater
social tolerance of this behaviour and wider avail-
ability and use of contraception (Mensch et al.
2006). In contrast, the gap between ages at first mar-
riage and first birth in these regions narrowed over
time, indirect evidence of an increase in premarital
conceptions, births, or both. It might also be the
case that women who marry later are under increas-
ing pressure by family members to prove their ferti-
lity. But the fact that the increase in age at first
birth paralleled the increase in age at marriage in
Asian and Northern African countries, where pre-
marital sex is not thought to be common, suggests

that premarital childbearing and not the pressure to
have a child explains the narrowing of the gap
between marriage and first birth in other regions.
In all regions, the level of girls’ education was posi-
tively associated with the timing of reproductive
events. Among women who had attended secondary
school, the mean ages at first birth and first marriage
were typically several years higher than among
women with primary education alone. In contrast the
differences between women who had attended
primary school and women with no education were
mostly less than one year, indicating that secondary
education had a more powerful effect on the timing
of events than primary education. This finding may
be explained by the selectivity of those who attend sec-
ondary school, as well as the fact that ages at first sex,
marriage, and birth may overlap with, and therefore
compete with, the age of participation in secondary
education more than with primary education.
The preceding discussion focused on regional pat-
terns in the timing of reproductive events. Although
a full analysis of country-specific estimates is beyond
the scope of this paper, a few results are noteworthy
(while keeping in mind that trends in individual
countries are affected more severely by sampling
and reporting errors). The average pace of increase
in the mean age at first birth was 0.04 years per
annum, but country-level changes ranged from highs
of 0.12 in Senegal, 0.11 in Ghana, and 0.10 in Jordan
and Morocco, to a slight decrease in Chad, the
DRC, Malawi, the Philippines, Brazil, and Colombia.
For age at marriage the average pace of increase in all
countries in the analysis was 0.06 years per annum,
substantially higher than the pace for age at first
birth. In twelve countries, the pace of increase in the
mean age at first marriage was 0.10 years per annum
or higher, which translates into a one-year increase
every decade. Declines in the average age at marriage
were observed in five of the 43 countries.
The degree of correlation between trends in girls’
education and trends in the ages at reproductive
events also varied substantially among countries. For
example, there was a rapid expansion of education in
Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011, with the proportion
of women with at least primary education rising from
34 to 67 per cent (about three percentage points
annually). During the same period, the mean age at
first birth increased by only a modest 0.03 years per
annum. The age at first birth increased by approxi-
mately the same annual amount in Burkina Faso,
Egypt, Mali, Mozambique, and Uganda, despite the
proportion of women with at least primary education
rising only about a third as much as in Ethiopia (one
percentage point or less annually). Given the substantial
Trends in age at reproductive transitions 151
improvement in education among women in Ethiopia, a
larger shift in age at first birth would be expected. In
Bangladesh and Nepal large improvements in edu-
cation levels were also accompanied by lower than
expected increases in age at first birth.
Over the roughly 17 years covered by this analysis,
sizeable improvements in the educational attainment
of women of reproductive age were observed. The
impact of educational improvements on the timing of
life-cycle events was examined with a decomposition
exercise. The results indicate that in sub-Saharan
Africa and in Asia and Northern Africa the changes
in timing of first marriage and first birth overall were
primarily a result of changes in the educational compo-
sition of the population of females (the ‘composition’
effect) and to a lesser extent changes in timing within
categories of education (the ‘rate’ effect). This
suggests that, even in the absence of changes in behav-
iour within education groups, age at first marriage and
first birth would have increased.
In Latin America and the Caribbean (as rep-
resented by the eight countries in the analysis) the
results were less straightforward. For the time inter-
val we analysed, the average age at first sex
decreased by almost a year, the age at marriage
increased by less than a year, and the age at first
birth remained constant. The positive effects of
shifts in the education distribution on the average
ages at marriage and first birth were almost cancelled
out by the negative effects of decreases within edu-
cation categories. For mean age at first sex, the nega-
tive rate effect was substantially greater than the
positive composition effect. The Latin American
experience suggests that it is difficult to speculate
how future increases in educational attainment
might affect the timing of early reproductive events.
The variability in trends across regions and
countries and in the composition and rate effects of
these trends is linked to differential changes in four
factors. The first is the rapidity with which education
levels have altered. In countries where education
levels have increased markedly over a short period,
one would expect more rapid change in the timing
of early life-cycle events. Next is the effect of selectiv-
ity; as education becomes more widespread, those
with higher levels of schooling are not as select a
group as in the past and therefore may be more
resistant to changes in reproductive behaviour. In
addition, the group with no education becomes
increasingly selective of those with lower socio-econ-
omic status. Third, the rate effect is influenced by
norms that are altered not just by increased schooling
but also as a result of other secular changes, such as
the economy or the political context.
152 John Bongaarts et al.
Finally, there is the attenuating effect of declining
school quality (Grant 2015). As noted earlier, the
rapid expansion of girls’ education over the last few
decades has not translated into substantially improved
learning outcomes in many settings (Riddell 2003;
Pritchett 2013), which may reduce the transformative
effect of education on the timing of reproductive
events. If, however, the association between increased
schooling and reproductive behaviour is in part
because of a modification of attitudes and autonomy
resulting from exposure to school, then continued
changes in the educational composition of the popu-
lation, particularly in Africa and Asia, will likely
result in a continued rise in age at marriage and at
first birth, even if academic skills at a particular
grade level deteriorate somewhat over time.
Notes
1 John Bongaarts, Barbara S. Mensch, and Ann K. Blanc
are all at the Population Council, New York. Please
direct all correspondence to John Bongaarts, Population
Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY
10017, USA; or by e-mail at: jbongaarts@popcouncil.org
2 This research was supported by a grant from the William
and Flora Hewlett Foundation to the Population
Council. The authors are grateful to Katharine
McCarthy and Barbara Miller for assistance in analysing
data and preparing this manuscript.
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Appendix A: Demographic and health survey Appendix B: Estimating the period mean
countries and years ages at life-cycle events
The method for estimating the period mean ages at life-
N (married cycle events (such as first birth, first marriage, and first
Year women) sex) from DHS surveys follows Bongaarts and Blanc
(2015). In the absence of events before age 15 and above
First Last First Last age 44
Region/country survey survey survey survey
MIDDLE/WESTERN AFRICA
Benin 1996 2011 4,198 11,680

44
Burkina Faso 1993 2010 5,325 13,563 (a + 0.5)b(a, t)
Cameroon 1998 2011 3,676 9,791 M(t) = 15

44 (B1)
15 b(a, t)
Chad 1996–97 2004 5,832 4,663
Congo, 2007 2013–14 6,622 12,096
Democratic
Republic
where M(t) = average age at the event in period t, b(a,t) =
Côte d’Ivoire 1994 2011–12 5,271 6,308 age-specific event rate at age a in period t (events per 1,000
Ghana 1988 2014 3,156 5,321 women).
Guinea 1999 2012 5,561 6,726 In countries where large numbers of events are recorded
Liberia 1986 2013 3,538 5,385 (e.g., from vital registration), event rates are available by
Mali 1995–96 2012–13 8,222 8,819 single age and single year. As a result, annual estimates
Niger 1992 2012 5,560 9,881 of M(t) can be obtained. In contrast, in applications of
Nigeria 1990 2013 6,880 27,829 this equation to DHS surveys, samples of events in single
Senegal 1992–93 2014 4,450 5,500 years are relatively small. To obtain robust estimates of
Togo 1998 2013 5,819 6,282 the mean ages at events for a survey, we calculated b(a,t)
by single year of age for a period of five years before
EASTERN/SOUTHERN AFRICA each survey. In addition, we excluded surveys with
Ethiopia 2000 2011 9,789 10,287 sample sizes of currently married women below 3,000 to
Kenya 1989 2014 4,765 18,549 minimize sampling errors. The ages included in equation
Malawi 2000 2010 9,451 15,527 (B1) were from 15 to 44. The upper age was set at
Madagascar 1992 2008–09 3,736 12,038 44 years because in a few countries no data were available
Mozambique 1997 2011 6,529 9,331 for higher ages. Moreover, the incidence of first sex, mar-
Rwanda 1992 2010 3,785 6,897 riage, and births at higher ages was negligible in the
Tanzania 1991–92 2010 6,038 6,411 countries included in this analysis. Equation (B1) uses a
Uganda 1988–89 2011 3,180 5,417 minimum age of 15 years because respondents under age
Zambia 1992 2013 4,457 9,858 15 are not included in DHS surveys. Unfortunately, the
incidence of events under age 15 was not negligible in a
Zimbabwe 1994 2010–11 3,788 5,702
number of countries. An adjustment to equation (B1)
ASIA/NORTHERN AFRICA was therefore needed to account for the occurrence of
Bangladesh 1993–94 2011 8,980 16,635 events below age 15. This adjustment relied on the retro-
Cambodia 2000 2014 9,071 11,898 spective reporting of events before age 15 by women
India 1992–93 2005–06 84,678 93,089 aged 15–19 at the time of the survey. The adjusted equation
Indonesia 1987 2012 10,906 33,465 is as follows:
Jordan 1990 2012 6,168 10,801
Nepal 1996 2011 7,982 9,607
Pakistan 1990–91 2012–13 6,364 12,936
Philippines 1993 2013 8,961 9,726
44
14p(T) + (a + 0.5)b(a, t)
Turkey 1993 2003–04 6,270 7,671 M∗ (t) = 15

44 (B2)
Egypt 1988 2014 8,220 20,459 p(T) + 15 b(a, t)
Morocco 1987 2003–04 5,447 8,781
LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
Bolivia 1989 2008 4,941 10,161
Brazil 1986 1996 3,471 7,584 where M*(t) = adjusted average age at the event in period
Colombia 1990 2010 4,531 26,281 t, b(a,t) = age-specific event rate at age a in period t (events
per 1,000 women), p(T ) = proportion of women aged 15–
Dominican 1986 2013 4,133 5,064
19 reporting an event before age 15 at T, the time of the
Republic survey (early events per 1,000 women).
Guatemala 1987 1998–99 3,377 3,963 Events before age 15 were assumed to have occurred at
Haiti 1994–95 2012 3,113 7,808 exact age 14. Equation (B2) was used to estimate the
Honduras 2005–06 2011–12 11,612 12,846 period mean ages at first birth, first marriage, and first
Peru 1991–92 2011 8,740 12,672 sex throughout this study.