BY MUKUL KAINTH

DELPHI TECHNIQUE
SUBJECT: DEMAND MANAGEMENT (MGMT 297)

GROUP 2

SUBMITTED TO: ENEJDA JASA

CONTENT :

1. INTRODUCTION
2. PURPOSE
3. PROCESS
4. ADVANTAGES
5. ORGANISATIONS USING DELPHI TECHNIQUE
6. DEMAND PROJECTIONS DEPENDENT ON DEMAND OF OTHER PROUCTS
7. PERSONAL EXPERIENCE
8. LIMITATIONS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE
MUKUL KAINTH
DEMAND MANAGEMENT (MGMT 297)

INTRODUCTION
The Delphi technique is a structured and systematic method of forecasting or decision-making that involves a panel of
experts who participate in a series of repetitive rounds of questioning and feedback. The Delphi technique is named after
the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi, which was renowned for its prophecies and predictions. The Delphi technique is used in
a wide range of fields, including business, economics, engineering, medicine, and policymaking.
This assignment provides a comprehensive overview of the Delphi technique, its purpose, process, advantages, and
limitations.
PURPOSE OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE
The Delphi technique is often used when there is a high degree of uncertainty or complexity involved in the problem or
issue being addressed. By using a panel of experts, the Delphi technique can help to generate a range of perspectives and
insights that may not be readily apparent from a single individual or source. Additionally, the iterative nature of the Delphi
technique allows for the refinement and validation of the experts' opinions and insights, leading to a more robust and
accurate forecast or decision. Its main objectives include:
1. Gathering expert opinions: The technique harnesses the knowledge and expertise of a diverse panel of experts to
explore and evaluate various aspects of a problem or issue.
2. Consensus building: The Delphi technique aims to reach a collective agreement or consensus among experts by
facilitating iterative rounds of feedback and discussion.
3. Forecasting and decision-making: It assist in forecasting future trends, identifying potential risks, and making
informed decisions based on expert insights.
PROCESS OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE
The Delphi technique typically involves the following steps:
1. Selection of experts: A group of individuals with expertise and knowledge relevant to the research topic is
identified and invited to participate in the Delphi process.
2. In the first round, experts independently respond to a set of structured questionnaires or surveys. The questions are
carefully designed to explore different dimensions of the topic and gather diverse opinions.
3. Feedback and anonymity: The responses from the first round are compiled, anonymized, and redistributed to the
experts. Each expert then reviews the summarized responses and provides feedback or ratings without knowing
the identities of other participants.
4. Iterative rounds: Several rounds of data collection and feedback are conducted, usually three to four, to allow
experts to revise their responses based on the anonymous feedback received from the group. The process continues
until consensus or stability is achieved.
5. Controlled feedback: Throughout the iterative rounds, the facilitator or researchers may provide controlled
feedback to participants, highlighting areas of agreement or disagreement, and encouraging convergence of
opinions.
6. Consensus and reporting: Once consensus or stability is attained, the results are analysed, and a summary report is
prepared, including the areas of agreement, dissenting opinions, and any unresolved issues.
AVANTAGES OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE
The Delphi technique offers several advantages, including:
1. Anonymity: Experts identities remain confidential, eliminating the influence of status or authority biases and
promoting open expression of opinions.
2. Flexibility: The iterative nature of the Delphi technique allows for progressive refinement of ideas and
convergence toward consensus.
3. Inclusivity: The method allows for the participation of geographically dispersed experts, ensuring a wide range of
perspectives.
4. Expertise-driven: It leverages the collective wisdom and expertise of a diverse panel, resulting in well-informed
and comprehensive insights.
5. Structured process: The Delphi technique provides a systematic and structured approach, promoting
methodological rigor and reducing biases.

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MUKUL KAINTH
DEMAND MANAGEMENT (MGMT 297)

ORGANISATION’S USING DELPHI TECHNIQUE

1. IBM has employed the Delphi method in their strategic decision-making processes. They use the technique to
gather input from a diverse group of experts within the company to forecast technology trends, assess market
opportunities, and make informed business decisions.

2. Deloitte, one of the world's largest professional services firms, has incorporated the Delphi method into their
consulting practices. They use the technique to gather expert opinions and insights for forecasting and strategic
planning in areas such as finance, technology, and business operations.

3. Pfizer, a pharmaceutical company, has used the Delphi method to gather input from experts in clinical trials and
drug development to inform its research and development strategy.

4. World Health Organization (WHO): WHO has employed the Delphi technique to gather expert opinions and
develop guidelines and recommendations on numerous public health issues, such as disease prevention and control
strategies.

DEMAND PROJECTIONS DEPENDENT ON DEMAND OF OTHER PRODUCTS

Demand forecasting is a critical activity for businesses and industries to anticipate market trends, customer needs, and plan
production and inventory levels. In some industries, the demand for a product is directly dependent on the demand for other
related products or services. Here are some examples of industries where demand forecasting is dependent on the demand
for other products:

1. Automotive Industry: The demand for automotive parts and components is highly dependent on the demand for
finished vehicles. For example, the demand for tires, batteries, and electronic components is directly related to the
production of cars and trucks. The automotive industry, therefore, needs to forecast the demand for these products
by analysing trends in vehicle sales, customer preferences, and economic conditions.

2. Consumer Electronics: The demand for accessories, such as cases, chargers, and screen protectors, is directly
related to the demand for smartphones and tablets. The consumer electronics industry must forecast the demand
for these products by analysing sales data, new product releases, and trends in consumer preferences.

3. Food and Beverage: The demand for food products, such as condiments, sauces, and spices, is directly dependent
on the demand for primary food items, such as meat, vegetables, and grains. The food and beverage industry must,
therefore, forecast the demand for these products by analysing trends in food consumption, seasonality, and
consumer preferences.

4. Fashion and Apparel: The demand for fashion accessories, such as shoes, bags, and jewellery, is directly
dependent on the demand for apparel. The fashion industry must forecast the demand for these products by
analysing fashion trends, consumer preferences, and the overall economic conditions.

5. Home Appliances: The demand for replacement parts and accessories for home appliances, such as filters, hoses,
and cleaning products, is directly related to the demand for the appliances themselves. The home appliances
industry must, therefore, forecast the demand for these products by analysing trends in appliance sales, repair
rates, and customer preferences.

6. Gaming Industry: The demand for gaming consoles and accessories is dependent on the demand for video game
titles. When popular game titles are released, it can drive an increase in demand for consoles, controllers, virtual
reality headsets, and other gaming accessories.

7. Construction Industry: The demand for construction materials, such as cement, steel, and lumber, is highly
dependent on the demand for construction projects. The construction industry must, therefore, forecast the demand
for these products by analysing trends in new construction, renovation, and infrastructure development.

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MUKUL KAINTH
DEMAND MANAGEMENT (MGMT 297)

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

While working as a Project Manager on a construction project. I employed the Delphi method at various stages where
expert opinions, consensus building, and forecasting are/were essential. Here are some key applications that employers can
use Delphi method in the construction industry.

1. Project Planning and Feasibility: The Delphi method is utilized to gather expert opinions and insights on project
planning, site selection, cost estimation, scheduling, and overall project feasibility. By engaging a panel of experts,
the Delphi technique helps identify potential risks, assess project viability, and develop realistic project plans.

2. Risk Assessment: Construction projects involve various risks, including safety hazards, environmental concerns,
and financial uncertainties. The Delphi method enables experts to identify and evaluate potential risks, prioritize
them, and develop strategies to mitigate or manage those risks effectively.

3. Sustainability and Green Building: The Delphi technique is employed to gather expert opinions on sustainable
construction practices, green building standards, and energy-efficient design strategies. It helps assess the
feasibility of incorporating sustainable features into construction projects and ensures the adoption of
environmentally responsible practices.

4. Building Design and Codes: The Delphi method is used to gather expert opinions on building design principles,
construction codes, and regulatory compliance. It assists in ensuring that construction projects meet the required
standards, building codes, and safety regulations.

5. Infrastructure Planning: The Delphi technique aids in infrastructure planning and development by engaging
experts to provide insights on transportation systems, urban planning, utilities, and public facilities. It assists in
forecasting future infrastructure needs, optimizing resource allocation, and identifying potential challenges.

LIMITATIONS OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Despite its advantages, the Delphi technique also has certain limitations:
1. Time-consuming: Conducting multiple rounds of data collection and analysis can be time-intensive and may
require a significant commitment from participants.
2. Expert availability and selection: The success of the Delphi technique relies on the availability and willingness of
experts to participate, as well as the appropriateness of their expertise.
3. Limited interaction: The absence of direct interaction among experts may restrict the opportunity for dynamic
debate and may inhibit the exploration of alternative viewpoints.
4. Cost-intensive: Conducting a Delphi study can be resource-intensive, particularly when a large number of experts
are involved. The process often requires financial resources to compensate experts for their time, cover
administrative costs, and facilitate communication between participants.
5. Potential for dominant opinions or groupthink: Despite the anonymity of the Delphi technique, there is still a
possibility of influential participants swaying the consensus or stifling diverse viewpoints. Dominant opinions or
groupthink can emerge, especially if there is a power imbalance among the experts or if some participants have
more influence than others.
6. Uncertainty of outcomes: While the Delphi technique aims to reach a consensus or forecast, the outcomes are not
always guaranteed to be accurate or reliable. The accuracy of the forecasts heavily relies on the knowledge and
expertise of the participating experts, and there is always a possibility of errors, biases, or unforeseen factors
affecting the results.

In summary, the Delphi technique is a valuable tool for forecasting and decision-making in situations where there is a high
degree of uncertainty or complexity. By using a panel of experts and an iterative process of questioning and feedback, the
Delphi technique can help to generate a range of perspectives and insights, promote consensus-building, and reduce the
effects of individual biases and groupthink.