2019 22nd International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS)

Research on Spatio-temporal Characteristics and

Aggregation Algorithm of Wind Power Uncertainty
Function
Likun Wang Zhizhong Guo Yue Chen
School of Electrical Engineering and School of Electrical Engineering and School of Electrical Engineering and
Automation Automation Automation
Harbin Institute of Technology Harbin Institute of Technology Harbin Institute of Technology
Harbin, China Harbin, China Harbin, China
hitwanglikun@163.com zhizhonggzz@sina.com ycchenyue@foxmail.com

Hongbo Li Guizhong Wang Yingwei Hou

Electric Power Research Institute of Electric Power Research Institute of Electric Power Research Institute of
HITZ HITZ HITZ
Harbin Institute of Technology at Harbin Institute of Technology at Harbin Institute of Technology at
Zhangjiakou Zhangjiakou Zhangjiakou
Zhangjiakou, China Zhangjiakou, China Zhangjiakou, China
lihongbo19790127@126.com wgz2003@sina.com hyw422700015@163.com

Abstract—According to the root mean square statistics of
wind power prediction error and prediction lead time show an
exponential function, the uncertainty function model of wind
power is established in this paper. In order to study the
influence of seasonal variation and diurnal variation on
uncertainty of wind power, a time aggregation uncertainty
function of wind power is established. In order to study the
influence of wind power spatial distribution on wind power
uncertainty, a wind power spatial uncertainty function is
established. In this paper, the wind power uncertainty
aggregation algorithm is used to solve the real wind farm data,
and the effects of seasonal variation and spatial distribution on
wind power prediction power error are quantitatively analyzed.
Keywords—wind power, uncertainty function, time
aggregation, spatial aggregation
I. INTRODUCTION
Because fossil fuels are non-renewable energy, and the
use of fossil energy will pollute the environment. Therefore,
all countries in the world are vigorously developing and
utilizing renewable energy. Wind power is currently the most
widely used renewable energy, and is a kind of intermittent
power sources [1]. The power generated by intermittent
power sources is characterized by uncertainty based on
randomness and intermittence [2-3]. The uncertainty of wind
power generation power is not conducive to the safe and
stable operation of power grid [4].
The higher the proportion of wind power in power grid,
the greater the impact of uncertain power generation on
power balance and safe operation of power grid [5-6]. A
small amount of wind power "penetrates" into the grid,
which is not so obvious for the safe operation of the grid. If a
large number of wind powers "infiltrates" into the grid, it
will have a great impact on the safe operation of the grid.
The grid with high proportion of intermittent power
sources such as wind power is called power systems with
high proportion renewable power sources. For the power
systems with high proportion renewable power sources,
without measures to balance the uncertain power generation
of wind power, the grid will not be able to operate safely and
steadily for a long time. In order to balance the uncertain
power generation of wind power, we need to study the
uncertain characteristics of wind power.
The uncertainty of wind power refers to the uncertainty
of the prediction error between the predicted value and the
actual value of wind power. As the lead time of prediction
becomes shorter and shorter, the uncertainty of wind power
becomes smaller and smaller. Uncertainty statistics of wind
power has attracted wide attention [7]. In reference [8-9], the
relationship between wind power prediction error and lead
time is studied. With the reduction of prediction lead time,
the uncertainty of wind power changes slowly at first, and
then rapidly decreases to zero. With the increase of
forecasting lead time, the root mean square statistics of
relative error of wind power increase according to an
exponential curve. For different forecasting methods, the
relationship between forecasting lead time and wind power
uncertainty obeys the same statistical law. In order to
describe the relationship between the lead time of wind
power prediction and the uncertainty of wind power, the root
mean square statistics method is used in this paper.
Because wind power has the characteristics of time
aggregation and space aggregation, the uncertainty function
of wind power also has the corresponding space-time
characteristics. The time aggregation characteristics of wind
power can study the total uncertainty of wind power
uncertainty after time aggregation, and can compare the
difference of uncertainty of wind power in different seasons.
The spatial aggregation characteristics of wind power can be
used to study the aggregation characteristics of uncertainty of
different wind turbines in the same wind farm, thus
describing the uncertainty of the whole wind farm. The
aggregation characteristics of uncertainty in different wind
farms can also be studied to describe the uncertainty of wind
power in the whole region. In order to study the time
aggregation characteristics of wind power, this paper
establishes a time aggregation uncertainty model. The time
aggregation algorithm is used to solve the uncertainty
function of wind power generation in different seasons
throughout the year, and the generation law of wind power
uncertainty in different seasons is pointed out through
comparison. In order to study the spatial aggregation

978-1-7281-3398-0/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE

978-1-7281-3398-0/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE

 2019 22nd International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS)
characteristics of wind power, this paper establishes a spatial
aggregation uncertainty model. The spatial aggregation
algorithm is used to solve the global uncertainty function of
different wind farms, which has guiding significance for the
power grid to grasp the generation law of the overall
uncertainty of wind power.
II. WIND POWER UNCERTAINTY FUNCTION MODEL AND ITS
SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS
The uncertainty of wind power generation is closely
related to the prediction lead time. Relevant literature studies
show that this close relationship has a clear statistical law:
the uncertainty of wind power generation power decreases
with the shortening of prediction lead time. In this paper, the
relative error root mean square of wind power is used to
describe the uncertainty of wind power. The results show
that the root mean square error of wind power decreases with
the shortening of prediction lead time according to an
exponential curve.
In this section, a mathematical model of wind power
uncertainty is established according to the statistical law of
the root mean square error of wind power and the prediction
lead time. The relationship between wind power uncertainty
and time is summarized from the perspective of statistical
law, which lays a mathematical foundation for solving the
impact of wind power uncertainty on power grid. In this
paper, α function is used to describe the statistical rule of
relative error root mean square of wind power and prediction
lead time [10].
The exponential function shown in equation (1) is called
α function.
 − 
t
α ( t ) = A 1 − e τ 
 
Where, t ∈ [0, +∞) is a single variable, A ∈ ( 0, +∞ ) is the
magnitude of the α function, τ ∈ ( 0, +∞ ) is the time
constant of the α function.
The amplitude A of α function satisfies the boundary
condition shown in equation (2).
A = α ( +∞ )
The time constant τ of α function satisfies the
boundary condition shown in equation (3).
α ( +∞ )
τ = (1)
α ( 0)
For any wind farm, the uncertainty α of wind power is
defined as the root mean square statistics of relative error of
prediction shown in equation (4).
1 n
α ( ti ) = ⋅  σ k2 ( ti ) , ( i = 1, 2,  , m ) (4) different time periods is used to obtain the total uncertainty
n k =1
Where, ti is the prediction lead time, m is the number of
prediction lead time, n is the number of statistical samples.
σ k ( ti ) is the relative error of sample k about ti , which is
defined as equation (5).
Pk f ( ti ) − Pka ( ti )
σ k ( ti ) = (5)
Pka ( ti )
Where Pk f ( ti ) and Pka ( ti ) represent the predicted power
and actual power of sample k with respect to ti ,
respectively.
The amplitude condition A and the time constant τ of
the wind power uncertainty α function are defined as
equations (6) and (7).
1) Amplitude condition A
A = max {α ( ti )} (6)
2) Time constant τ
A
τ= (7)
α ( ti +1 ) − α ( ti )
max
ti +1 − ti
The prediction error of wind power is obviously related
to the prediction lead time. Wind power generation has
obvious seasonal characteristics and diurnal differences. In
order to reduce the influence of seasonal characteristics and
(1) diurnal differences on the prediction error of wind power, it
is necessary to study the time characteristics of wind power
uncertainty function model. The spatial distribution of wind
power affects its power predictions. The spatial distribution
of different wind turbines in the same wind farm and the
regional distribution of different wind farms affect the
prediction value of wind power. Therefore, studying the
spatial characteristics of the wind power uncertainty function
model can reduce the influence of regional location on wind
power prediction error.
III. AGGREGATION ALGORITHM FOR WIND POWER
(2)
UNCERTAINTY FUNCTION
The aggregation characteristics of wind power
uncertainty function can be divided into time aggregation
characteristics and space aggregation characteristics. The
time aggregation of wind power is used to describe the
integration of the total uncertain function of wind power in
(3)
different time periods and the uncertain function in different
time periods. Spatial aggregation can be the aggregation of
different wind turbines in a single wind farm, or the
aggregation of different wind farms.
A. Time Aggregation Characteristics of Wind Power
The time aggregation characteristic of wind power
describes that the uncertainty function of wind power in
function of wind power in the whole time period.
 2019 22nd International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS)

The uncertainty functions corresponding to time period 1 dα ( 0 )

T1 , T2 ,  , Tn are α1 , α 2 ,α n . The uncertainty function = (16)
τ dt
corresponding to the total time period T is α .
The uncertainty function α i corresponding to Ti in any According to equation (16), the time constant τ of total
uncertainty function α and the time constant τ i of
time period satisfies equation (8).
uncertainty function α1 , α 2 ,α n in each period satisfy
1 Ti 2 equation (17).
αi ( t ) = ⋅ σ i ( t ) dt
Ti Ti−1
(8)
n

∏τ i
The uncertainty function α corresponding to the total τ= i =1
(17)
time period T satisfies equation (9). n  i −1 2 n 2 
  ki ∏ τ j ⋅ ∏ τ l 
i =1  j =1 l = i +1 
1 T 2
α (t ) = ⋅ σ ( t ) dt
T T0
(9)
B. Spatial Aggregation Characteristics of Wind Power
Spatial aggregation of wind power is used to describe the
The total time interval T and time interval T1 , T2 ,  , Tn total uncertain power of wind power in space. The spatial
satisfy the equation (10). aggregation of wind power uncertainty function should be
the sum of single wind power uncertainty function according
T = T1 + T2 + Tn (10) to its proportion. The amplitude As of spatial aggregation
function of wind power uncertainty is defined by equation
The total uncertainty function α and the uncertainty (18).
function α1 , α 2 ,α n of each time period satisfy the
n
equation (11). A = A S 
i =1
(18) i

1 T 2 n
T 1 Ti
⋅  σ ( t ) dt =  i ⋅ ⋅  σ i2 ( t ) dt (11) The time constant τ s of the wind energy uncertainty
T 0 T
i =1 T Ti Ti−1
spatial aggregate function is defined by equation (19).
According to equation (8), equation (11) can be −1
simplified to equation (12).  n k 
τS =  i  (19)
 i =1 τ i 
α ( t ) = k1 ⋅ α
2
1
2
( t ) + k2 ⋅ α 2 ( t ) +  + kn ⋅ α n ( t )
2 2
(12)
The spatial aggregation characteristic of wind power
Where ki is defined as an equation (13). describes the total uncertainty function of wind power in the
whole space by using the uncertainty function of wind power
Ti in different space.
ki = , ( i = 1, 2, , n ) (13)
T IV. ENGINEERING APPLICATION OF WIND POWER UNCERTAIN
FUNCTION
According to equation (12), when time t is positive and Wind power uncertainty function describes the overall
infinite, the amplitude A of the total uncertainty function α quality of wind power through the prediction error value of
and the amplitude Ai of the uncertainty function wind power. The spatial aggregation algorithm of wind
α1 , α 2 ,α n for each period satisfy the equation (14). power can use the uncertain functions of different wind
farms to obtain the total uncertain functions of wind farms in
the whole region. The time aggregation uncertainty function
n
A =  ki ⋅ Ai 2
(14) of wind power can compare the quality of wind energy in
i =1
different time periods of wind farm. Thus, the uncertainty
function of wind power can be used to guide the site
The derivative of the total uncertainty function α and selection and generation planning of wind farms.
the derivative of the uncertainty function α1 , α 2 ,α n for Based on the data of a wind farm in North China, the
each time period satisfy the equation (15). time aggregation algorithm is used to calculate the
uncertainty function of the wind power of the whole wind
2 2 farm throughout the year. Based on the data of three wind
 dα ( 0 )  n  dα i ( 0 )  farms in North China, the uncertain function of wind power
  =  ki   (15)
in the whole region is obtained by using spatial aggregation
 dt  i =1  dt 
algorithm. The simulation results are as follows on
MATLAB 8.3.0.532 (R2014a).
Moreover, the derivative of uncertainty function α and
its time constant τ satisfy equation (16).
 2019 22nd International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS)

TABLE I. UNCERTAINTY COEFFICIENT OF WIND FARM IN FOUR Uncertainty Function in Winter

SEASONS 1

Season Amplitude Time constant 0.9

Spring 0.9596 2.0153 0.8

0.7
Summer 0.9566 2.0607
0.6
Autumn 1.0346 2.1257

RMSE
0.5

Winter 0.8554 2.2228 0.4

0.3

Table 1 shows the uncertainty coefficients of wind farms 0.2

in four seasons by using time aggregation algorithm. 0.1

According to equation (1), the uncertain function of wind 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
power in four seasons of wind farm is drawn as follows. Lead Time (h)

Uncertainty Function in Spring

Fig. 4. Uncertainty function of wind farm in winter

Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show the uncertain

1
functions of a wind farm in North China throughout the year,
respectively. In order to compare the uncertain functions of
0.8 different seasons, the uncertain functions of four seasons are
drawn in the same graph.
RMSE

0.6
Uncertainty in Different Seasons

1.2
0.4

1
0.2

0.8

0
RMSE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Lead Time (h) 0.6

Fig. 1. Uncertainty function of wind farm in spring

0.4
Uncertainty Function in Summer Spring
Summer
0.2
Autumn
1 Winter

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0.8 Lead Time (h)

Fig. 5 Uncertainty Function of Wind Farm in Four Seasons

RMSE

0.6
Fig. 5 shows the uncertainty function of the four seasons
0.4
of the wind farm. Fig. 5 shows that the uncertainties of wind
power prediction errors are similar in spring and summer. In
the whole year, the wind power prediction error of wind farm
0.2
is the biggest in autumn and the smallest in winter. In the
process of power system dispatching, in order to ensure the
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 safe and stable operation of power grid, more reserve power
Lead Time (h)
should be reserved in autumn.
Fig. 2. Uncertainty function of wind farm in summer
Uncertainty Function of Spatial Aggregation

Uncertainty Function in Autumn 2.5

1.2

2
1

0.8 1.5
RMSE
RMSE

0.6
1

0.4
0.5

0.2

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0 Lead Time (h)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Lead Time (h) Fig. 6. Total uncertainty function of regional wind farm
Fig. 3. Uncertainty function of wind farm in autumn
 2019 22nd International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS)
As shown in Fig. 6, based on the data of three wind farms
in a certain area of North China, the spatial aggregation
algorithm is used to obtain the relationship between the total
forecast error of wind power in the whole region and the
predicted lead time. According to the day-ahead generation
planning, the error value of wind power prediction is
calculated, and the reserve power is reserved for the grid in
advance to ensure the power balance and safe and stable
operation of the grid.
V. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, the time aggregation uncertainty function
and the space aggregation uncertainty function of wind
power are established. Through the analysis of wind farm
examples, the uncertainty functions of wind power in
different seasons are obtained, and the quantitative
relationship between wind power uncertainty and seasons is
described. The relationship between the uncertainties of wind
power in each season of the year is obtained. According to
the spatial aggregation algorithm, the total uncertain function
of wind power in the whole region is obtained by using the
decentralized uncertain function of wind power. It is
instructive for the power dispatching center to grasp the total
power deviation of wind power in the whole power grid in
real time, which is conducive to the safe and stable operation
of the power grid.
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