PBA4804 Module Overview+2019 Sem+2

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR MANAGERS
PBA4804
MODULE ORIENTED GUIDE
2019 Semester 2
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This module overview contains important information
about your module.
PBA 4804 Module overview: Decision support systems for managers
Table of contents
List of tables .......................................................................................................................... 3
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 5
PURPOSE AND BROAD AND SPECIFIC OUTCOMES FOR THE MODULE ....................... 5
Purpose .............................................................................................................................. 5
Broad and specific outcomes .............................................................................................. 6
LECTURER(S) AND CONTACT DETAILS............................................................................ 6
MODULE-RELATED RESOURCES ...................................................................................... 7
Prescribed books ................................................................................................................ 7
Prescribed articles............................................................................................................... 7
Recommended books ......................................................................................................... 7
Electronic reserves (e-reserves) ............................................................................... 7
TOPICS ................................................................................................................................ 7
Topic 1: The art and context of decision making ................................................................. 7
Tuition period..................................................................................................................... 7
Specific outcomes ............................................................................................................. 7
Critical questions ............................................................................................................... 7
Learning through activities ................................................................................................. 8
Self-assessment ................................................................................................................ 8
Reflection .......................................................................................................................... 8
Topic 2: Impact of decision modelling.................................................................................. 8
Tuition period..................................................................................................................... 8
Self-assessment ................................................................................................................ 8
Reflection .......................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 9
Topic 3: Quantitative techniques ......................................................................................... 9
Tuition period..................................................................................................................... 9
Self-assessment ................................................................................................................ 9
Reflection .......................................................................................................................... 9
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 9
Topic 4: Qualitative techniques…………………………………………………………………..10
Tuition period……………………………………………………………………………………...10
Specific outcomes………………………………………………………………………………...10
Critical questions………………………………………………………………………………….10
Learning through activities……………………………………………………………………….10
Self-assessment…………………………………………………………………………………..10
Page 3 of 20 © UNISA Graduate School of Business Leadership

Reflection………………………………………………………………………………………….10
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………...10
Topic 5: Innovative and creative decision making……………………………………………..10
Tuition period ……………………………………………………………………………………..10
Specific outcomes ………………………………………………………………………………10
Critical questions…………………………………………………………………………………11
Learning through activities…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11
Self-assessment………………………………………………………………………………….11
Reflection………………………………………………………………………………………….11
Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………11
STUDY SCHOOL PLAN……………………………………………………………………………11
MODULE-SPECIFIC STUDY PLAN………………………………………………………………11
MODULE PRACTICAL WORK AND WORK-INTEGRATED LEARNING ............................ 12
ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................... 12
Assessment on postgraduate level .................................................................................... 12
Assessment plan ............................................................................................................... 13
ASSIGNMENTS .................................................................................................................. 13
General assignment numbers ........................................................................................... 13
Due dates for assignments................................................................................................ 13
Submission of assignments............................................................................................... 14
Group assignment 01 ........................................................................................................ 15
Group assignment 02 ........................................................................................................ 16
Repeaters’ individual assignment 01 ................................................................................. 17
Repeaters’ individual assignment 02 ................................................................................. 18
Marking guideline/matrix/rubric.......................................................................................... 19
OTHER ASSESSMENT METHODS ................................................................................... 20
EXAMINATION ................................................................................................................... 20
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ................................................................................. 20
SOURCES CONSULTED ................................................................................................... 20
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................... 20
List of tables
Table 1: Study school 1…………………………………………………………………………….11
Table 2: Examples of critical cross-field outcomes (CCFOs) ............................................... 12

INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the module Decision Support Systems for Managers. This module focuses on
equipping students with the decision-making skills and techniques required to make
decisions in a structured, rational and logical manner, especially in environments with either
perfect information, or
imperfect information
The subject consists of the process and philosophies of decision modelling, including
techniques for statistically analysing data that will assist managers in making decisions. A
person who aware of the numbers involved in a situation will invariably be supported and will
make good decisions. In business environments, decisions may be taken for the short,
medium or long term in support of the company’s vision and strategies.
Some of you may already be qualified engineers, scientists, mathematicians and
statisticians, and hence are aware of the various quantitative techniques and are already
using them in your day-to-day activities at work. The purpose of this module is therefore not
to re-teach these concepts. Instead, the focus is on rational, objective decision-making which
sometimes has to be carried out in complex environments where there is insufficient
information, structure or order. Therefore, I remind you to be patient with your peers, and
study the relevant theory from the prescribed textbook to fully grasp the concepts and their
potential for application within a business environment.
Case studies and their analysis, as well as thorough preparation for the examination, are
vital components of your studies. Each business environment, case or problem is unique.
Therefore, in analysing the situations students should refrain from positioning their analyses
to suit the tools they have for the analyses; instead you should allow the problem to lead you
to the selection of an appropriate methodology and tools for analyses.
To enable you to grasp the necessary theoretical frameworks and their practical implications,
you should give yourself an opportunity of seeing the practical side of things by, say,
performing the tasks assigned in the accompanying resources as indicated in your textbook
or accessing the suggested websites linked to the primary textbook for more activities.
Case studies and their analysis, as well as thorough preparation for the examination, are
vital components of your studies. However, you will also be able to do "learning in action"
when you perform reflections at the end of each unit. It is up to you to make the most of
these opportunities!
PURPOSE AND BROAD AND SPECIFIC OUTCOMES FOR THE MODULE
Purpose
Therefore, the broad aims of the module are to develop managers who understand that
decision making is process driven
to create credibility and acceptance of decisions, an objective approach to decision
making is important
to make credible decisions, a manager needs to use scientific and/or logical
techniques and tools to enhance decision making

Broad and specific outcomes

At the end of this module, students should be able to
• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of decision modelling philosophies and
techniques related to a range of business problems
• analyse the art of effective decision modelling
• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of the role and importance of

quantitative techniques in decision making
• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of the role and importance of

qualitative techniques in decision making
• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of applying statistical quality control

techniques to aid decision making
• demonstrate an understanding of the Monte Carlo simulation model and its

application to risk analysis
• demonstrate an understanding of building, solving and interpreting the results of a

linear program using SOLVER or LINDO and or any other relevant software tools
• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of decision analysis models for

decision making under uncertainty and risk
LECTURER(S) AND CONTACT DETAILS
Module leader: Mr Ozias Ncube

Unisa SBL Campus, Corner of Janadel and Alexandra Avenues,
Office
Midrand
Telephone number +27 11 652 0331
E-mail address ncubeo@unisa.ac.za
Fax number +27 11 652 0371
Lecturers can assist with enquiries of an academic nature only, such as enquiries about the
contents of assignments.
You must provide your student number and the course code of this module
(PBA4804) whenever you send us an enquiry.

MODULE-RELATED RESOURCES
Prescribed books
Evans, J.R. & Basu, A. 2013. Statistics, data analysis and decision modelling. 5th edition.
Pearson. ISBN: 13: 978-0-273-76822-7
Prescribed articles
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G. & Van der Heijden, K. 2005. The origins and
devolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, Vol 37,
795–812
Chermack, T.T., 2005. Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions and
hypotheses. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol 72, 59–73
Phelps, R., Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S.C., 2001. Does scenario planning affect performance?
Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research, Vol 51, 223–232.
Recommended books
Ragsdale, C.T. 2008. Modelling and decision analysis. Revised Edition. USA: Thomson
South Western. ISBN:0-324-58061-4
Anderson, D.R., Sweeney D.J. & Williams T.A. 2000. An introduction to management
science: Quantitative approaches to decision making. 13th edition. USA: South-
Western International Thompson. ISBN: 0-324-00321-8
Electronic reserves (e-reserves)
Web links for this module are indicated in the prescribed book.
TOPICS
Topic 1: The art and context of decision making
Tuition period
Time allocation: before and at the study school
Specific outcomes
After having completed this topic, students will be able to demonstrate a comprehensive
understanding of decision modelling philosophies and techniques related to a range of
business problems.
Critical questions
You should be able to
• explain the art of effective decision modelling
• explain and then define, create and solve “what-if” scenarios explain and then define,
create and optimise a decision model
• perform descriptive statistics on a given data set
• present visual displays of statistical measures of central tendency and dispersion

Learning through activities

Read chapters 1, 2 and 9 of the prescribed book. Complete the cases and student activities
in the prescribed book.
Self-assessment
Answer the odd-numbered questions under “Problems and applications” as practice activities.
Reflection
On completion of this topic, you should be able to
• design a decision model
• present descriptive statistics of any given data set
• present visual displays of statistical measures of central tendency and dispersion
• conduct a “what-if” scenario analysis
Topic 2: Impact of decision modelling

Tuition period
Time allocation: before the study school
Specific outcomes
After having completed this topic, students will be able to demonstrate a comprehensive
understanding of decision analysis.
Critical questions
• identify important variables for decision modelling
• explain how you make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk
• explain how you make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk
• explain how you determine the value of decision making
• explain how the utility view enhances decision making

Read chapter 11 of the prescribed book. Complete the cases and student activities in the
prescribed book.
Self-assessment
Do the odd-numbered questions under “Problems and applications” as practice activities.
Reflection

• identify important variables in decision making
• apply the decision-making rules applied under conditions of uncertainty and
risk
• apply the decision-making rules applied under conditions of uncertainty and
risk
• determine the value of decision making
• solve practical problems using decision-making rules
Conclusion
You will understand the concept of decision making under conditions of uncertainty.
Topic 3: Quantitative techniques
Tuition period
Time allocation: after the study school
Specific outcomes
After having completed this topic, students will be able to understand the role and
importance of quantitative techniques in decision making.
Critical questions
• identify and apply probability distributions to practical
situations
• conduct hypothesis testing using statistical inference
• use regression analysis
• use quantitative methods in forecasting
• apply statistical quality control to assist decision making

Read chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of the prescribed book. Complete the cases and student
activities in the prescribed book.
Self-assessment
Reflection
• use probability distributions
• conduct hypothesis testing using statistical inference
• derive and use a regression model
• use quantitative techniques for forecasting
• apply statistical quality control to assist decision making
Conclusion
You will understand the importance, role and function of quantitative techniques in assisting
decision making in a business setting.

Topic 4: Qualitative techniques

Tuition period
Specific outcomes
After having completed this topic, students will be able to understand the role and
importance of quantitative techniques in decision making.
Critical questions
• use the Delphi method and other related models for decision
making
• use, inter alia, focus groups, interview schedules and observations
use expert systems methodology to enhance decision making
• apply scoring models in solving multi-criteria problems
• apply the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to solve multi-criteria problems
Read chapter 7 of the prescribed book and the prescribed articles. Complete the cases and
student activities in the prescribed book.
Self-assessment
The group should engage in order to apply these methods in a practical setting, using the
group as the potential sample under study.
Reflection
On completion of this topic you should be able to
demonstrate an understanding of the Delphi method and related models
apply the AHP to practical situations
Conclusion
You will understand the importance, role and function of qualitative techniques in supporting
decision making in a business setting.
Topic 5: Innovative and creative decision making
Tuition period
Specific outcomes
The student will be able to use innovative and creative models in decision making.

Critical questions
You should understand and be able to
• measure risk
• use Monte Carlo simulation
• build a linear programming model
• solve a linear programming model using SOLVER
• build, solve and interpret integer and nonlinear programs
Read chapters 10, 13 and 14 of the prescribed book. Complete the cases and student
activities in the prescribed book.
Self-assessment
Reflection
On completion of this topic you should be able to
• demonstrate an understanding of Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis
• formulate and solve a linear program
• formulate and solve an integer program
• formulate and solve a nonlinear program
Conclusion
You will understand the concept of mathematical programming models and how they are
used for each unique situation encountered in a business environment.
STUDY SCHOOL PLAN
All study schools are held in Midrand. Attendance is compulsory and students will be
advised about the dates and venues well in advance. Students are responsible for their own
accommodation, travel arrangements and expenses incurred while attending the study
schools. Study schools give students an opportunity to network with fellow students and to
interact with academics.
Table 1: Study school
Topic
Topic description Chapters in prescribed book
number
1 Introduction to modelling and decision 1, 2 and 9
analysis
2 Quality control and forecasting 7 and 8
3 Simulation 12
4 Decision modelling under uncertainty 10 and 11
and risk
5 Linear programming 13 and 14
MODULE-SPECIFIC STUDY PLAN

Use your Study @ Unisa brochure for general time management and planning skills. This
brochure is available at http://www.unisa.ac.za/contents/study2012/docs/myStudies-Unisa-
2014.pdf.

We strongly recommend that you set a study programme for yourself for this year and that
you allocate sufficient time to work through the study guide, to study and read the relevant
sections of the prescribed books, to incorporate additional material if necessary, to do the
assignments, and to prepare for the examination.
You will need to spend at least 120 hours working on this module. This includes
approximately 50 hours of reading and studying the learning material, 40 hours of doing
activities and assignments, and 30 hours of preparation for the examination. This breakdown
includes attending the study school.
MODULE PRACTICAL WORK AND WORK-INTEGRATED LEARNING
Not applicable.
ASSESSMENT
The elements of distributed distance learning comprise self-tuition and group work in which
you must do both prescribed and recommended reading, complete assignments, and
contribute to group activities.
Assessment on postgraduate level
There are different types of performance standards that one can use when assessing
performance. This module is based on the mastery of specified learning outcomes which,
along with assessment criteria, are included in this module overview. Standards for
accrediting qualifications are set by the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA), which
oversees the National Qualifications Framework (NQF).
Assessment plays an important role in the learning process. The individual test and group
assignments form part of the formative assessment in this module and are used to assess
your progress during the year and to provide feedback which you can use to improve your
future performance in this module. In addition to being assessed on the learning outcomes
of the module, you will also be assessed on the critical cross-field outcomes (CCFOs)
associated with the module and with postgraduate studies in general. These CCFOs are
generic outcomes that inform all teaching and learning and they have been integrated with
the formative and summative assessment in this module. The following table indicates some
of the CCFOs and practical examples useful in assessing them:
Table 2: Examples of critical cross-field outcomes (CCFOs)
CCFO Example
Organising and managing oneself and one’s Submitting your completed assignment by the
activities responsibly and effectively due date is an indication that you have
mastered this outcome.
Collecting, analysing, organising and Searching for other sources, incorporating
critically evaluating information different views and forming a substantiated
opinion are indications that you have mastered
this outcome.
Communicating effectively using language skills Adhering to the technical requirements for an
in written presentation essay assignment is an indication that you have
mastered this outcome.

For more information on the CCFOs, please visit the South African Qualifications Authority
(SAQA) website at http://www.saqa.org.za
Assessment plan
To determine how well you have accomplished the learning outcomes for the module, you will be
assessed throughout the year by means of two group assignments and an examination. The first
assignment contributes 30% and the second assignment 70% towards the final mark. The weight
of the year mark is 40% and that of the written examination/portfolio is 60%.
ASSIGNMENTS
We strongly recommend that students unfamiliar with the case method of learning visit the
publisher Online Learning Centre (OLC) at www.mhhe.com/thompson The OLC provides
access to a guide to case analysis. This guide explains what a case is, why cases are a
standard part of courses in strategy, how to prepare for a class discussion on a case, and
how to prepare a written case analysis.
All assignments are group assignments. Note, however, that repeaters of this module are
expected to submit individual assignments. Also note that we will adopt a very strong stance on
plagiarism for all assignments and may decide to take disciplinary steps against students who
plagiarise. Plagiarism is the act of taking the words, ideas and thoughts of others and passing
them off as your own. It is a form of theft that involves a number of dishonest academic activities.
An example of plagiarism is retrieving information from the internet and then copying and pasting
this information into your assignment and submitting it as your own work.
You may access the Policy for Copyright Infringement and Plagiarism from
http://www.unisa.ac.za/Default.asp?Cmd=ViewContent&ContentID=27715
General assignment numbers

Assignments are numbered consecutively per module, starting from 01.
Due dates for assignments
A due date is the last date on which the assignment should reach the university. If your
assignment is not registered on the system by the due date, you should contact your lecturer
immediately and have a copy of your assignment ready.
The due dates for this module are:
Assignment Due date Year mark contribution Type Marks
01 19 August 2019 Contributes 30% Group 100

02 16 September 2019 Contributes 70% Group 100

VERY IMPORTANT – EXTENSIONS
Assignments must be submitted by the due date. Late assignments will be returned unmarked and a
mark of Zero will be allocated. A student who is unable to submit by the due date may apply for an
extension from the academic director before the actual due date. Only reasons such as illness or
death of a family member will be considered. Acceptable evidence of the particular circumstances,
such as medical certificates must be submitted with the request. Extensions will not be granted for not
meeting the due date due to work commitments. Your request must indicate clearly, your name, your
student number, the registered program, the module, the lecturer, the assignment number, reasons
and evidence for the request must be forwarded in writing to the secretary of the academic director,
Ms Primrose Mathabatha (mathapmm@unisa.ac.za).
Submission of assignments
All assignments are to be submitted online using the Electronic Delivery System (EDS online).
For detailed information on how to use the EDS online and instructions about assignment
submission, please refer to the EDS Guide, which you received with your study package.
VERY IMPORTANT
Submission of assignments to Turnitin
You are supported with the writing of your assignments by also submitting them via
Turnitin.com. This should be done before you submit your final assignment on the
EDS system for marking.
Turnitin Originality Check allows educators to check students' work for improper citation
or potential plagiarism by comparing it against continuously updated databases. Every
Originality Report provides instructors with the opportunity to teach their students proper
citation methods as well as to safeguard their students' academic integrity.
You are currently required to login and submit your PBA4804 Assignments on Turnitin and
check the similarity of your text. The assignment is required to be below 35% in similarity
for the whole document, including the reference list/bibliography.
NOTE: should your FINAL Turnitin and EDS submitted document (for all assignments)
not comply, you may receive a possible 0% for the submission/s.
You have to conform to the UNISA plagiarism policy and regulations (available on the
EDS home page) and you are assisted in this by submitting your work via Turnitin. Unisa
has a zero tolerance for plagiarism.
You have already been enrolled for the module on Turnitin. Please see the
guideline document on EDS for guidance.

GROUP ASSIGNMENT 01
Topics 1 to 3
Due date: 19 August 2019
Technical requirements:
Maximum length: 10 pages, 12 Font, 1,5 spacing (excluding appendices).
Referencing: Harvard Referencing Method – See Mystudies@SBL for reference guide
Use the case below to answer the following question(s). (Total marks = 100)
A certain restaurant located in a resort community is owned and operated by Karen Payne.
The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During this time, Karen sought to
establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high quality dining establishment that specialises
in fresh seafood. The efforts made by Karen and her staff proved successful, and her
restaurant is currently one of the best and fastest-growing restaurant in their neighbourhood.
Karen concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs
to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up
to one year in advance. Karen compiled the following data on total food and beverages sales
for the three years of operation:
Food and beverage sales for the restaurant (R1000s)

Month First year Second year Third year
January 242 263 282
February 235 238 255
March 232 247 265
April 178 193 205
May 184 193 210
June 140 149 160
July 145 157 166
August 152 161 174
September 110 122 126
October 130 130 148
November 152 167 173
December 206 230 235
Perform an analysis of the sales data for the restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that
summarises your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
(i) A graph of the time series. (10 marks)
(ii) An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each
month, and comment on the high seasonal and low seasonal sales months. Do the
seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss.
(30 marks)
(iii) Stating any assumptions you may make, provide forecast sales for January through
December of the fourth year.
(30 marks)
(iv) Recommendations as to when the system that you developed should be updated to
account for new sales data that will occur.
(10 marks).

GROUP ASSIGNMENT 02
Topics 5
Due date: 16 September 2019
Maximum length: 10 pages, 12 Font, 1,5 spacing (excluding appendices). Please note
that markers will only review the first 10 pages.
Zales Jeweller uses rubies and sapphires to produce two types of rings. A type 1 ring
requires two rubies, three sapphires and one hour of jeweller’s labour time. A type 2 ring
requires three rubies, two sapphires and two hours of jeweller’s labour time. Each type 1 ring
sells for R1 200 and each type 2 ring sells for R1 500. All rings produced by Zales can be
sold. At present, Zales has 100 rubies, 120 sapphires and 70 hours of jeweller’s labour time.
Extra rubies can be bought at R300 per ruby. Market demand requires at least 20 type 1
rings and 24 type 2 rings.
(a) Formulate the problem as a linear program. (15 marks)
(b) Use solver to solve your linear program (20 marks)
(c) Write down the optimal solution. (8 marks)
(d) Suppose that instead of R300, each ruby costs R750. Will Zales still buy extra rubies?
If so, will the production plan and profit change? (8 marks)
(e) Suppose that Zales was required to produce at least 23 type 2 rings. What would Zales’
profit now be? (7 marks)
(f) What is the most that Zales will be willing to pay for another hour of jeweller’s labour
time? How many hours may be obtained at this price? (7 marks)
(g) What is the most Zales will be willing to pay for another sapphire? (5 marks)
(h) Zales discovers another 20 rubies in his safe. How will the availability of these extra
rubies change his production plan and profit? (5 marks)
(i) The market demand changes and Zales must now produce at least 22 type 1 rings and at
least 23 type 2 rings. How will this change his production plan and profit?
(5 marks)

REPEATERS’ INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT 01

Topics 1 to 3
Due date: 19 August 2019
Maximum length: 10 pages, 12 Font, 1,5 spacing (excluding appendices). Kindly note that
markers will only review the first 10 pages.
Use the case below to answer the following question(s). (Total marks = 100)
A certain restaurant located in a resort community is owned and operated by Karen Payne.
The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During this time, Karen sought to
establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high quality dining establishment that
specialises in fresh seafood. The efforts made by Karen and her staff proved successful, and
her restaurant is currently one of the best and fastest-growing restaurant in their
neighbourhood.
Karen concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs
to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up
to one year in advance. Karen compiled the following data on total food and beverages sales
for the three years of operation:
Food and beverage sales for the restaurant (R1000s)

Month First year Second year Third year
January 242 263 282
February 235 238 255
March 232 247 265
April 178 193 205
May 184 193 210
June 140 149 160
July 145 157 166
August 152 161 174
September 110 122 126
October 130 130 148
November 152 167 173
December 206 230 235
Perform an analysis of the sales data for the restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that
summarises your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
(i) A graph of the time series. (10 marks)
(ii) An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each
month, and comment on the high seasonal and low seasonal sales months. Do the
seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss.
(30 marks)
(iii) Stating any assumptions you may make, provide forecast sales for January through
December of the fourth year.
(30 marks)
(iv) Recommendations as to when the system that you developed should be updated to
account for new sales data that will occur.
(10 marks).

REPEATERS’ INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT 02

Topics 3 to 5
Due date: 16 September 2019
Maximum length: 10 pages, 12 Font, 1,5 spacing (excluding appendices). Kindly note that
markers will only review the first 10 pages.
Zales Jeweller uses rubies and sapphires to produce two types of rings. A type 1 ring
requires two rubies, three sapphires and one hour of jeweller’s labour time. A type 2 ring
requires three rubies, two sapphires and two hours of jeweller’s labour time. Each type 1 ring
sells for R1 200 and each type 2 ring sells for R1 500. All rings produced by Zales can be
sold. At present, Zales has 100 rubies, 120 sapphires and 70 hours of jeweller’s labour time.
Extra rubies can be bought at R300 per ruby. Market demand requires at least 20 type 1
rings and 24 type 2 rings.
(a) Formulate the problem as a linear program. (15 marks)
(b) Use solver to solve your linear program (20 marks)
(c) Write down the optimal solution. (8 marks)
(d) Suppose that instead of R300, each ruby costs R750. Will Zales still buy extra rubies?
If so, will the production plan and profit change? (8 marks)
(e) Suppose that Zales was required to produce at least 23 type 2 rings. What would Zales’
profit now be? (7 marks)
(f) What is the most that Zales will be willing to pay for another hour of jeweller’s labour
time? How many hours may be obtained at this price? (7 marks)
(g) What is the most Zales will be willing to pay for another sapphire? (5 marks)
(h) Zales discovers another 20 rubies in his safe. How will the availability of these extra
rubies change his production plan and profit? (5 marks)
(i) The market demand changes and Zales must now produce at least 22 type 1 rings and at
least 23 type 2 rings. How will this change his production plan and profit?
(5 marks)

Students repeating this module must complete this assignment individually.
Your answers to the above will be assessed in terms of the level of communication
displayed, the insights and inferences drawn, and your ability to show the implications of the
factors that you have assessed and discussed. An answer that merely gives a list of events
that have happened or a synopsis of a situation, without showing insight into the reasons and
results, will not earn good marks. Your method of referencing must consistently follow the
augmented Harvard method. Annexures can be used to highlight additional information.
Marking guideline/matrix/rubric
The following template will be used in the overall assessment of your assignments:
Marks for the content of the assignment 80% of total marks
Score Level Criteria
60 to 80 Good to Content is well integrated and linked to theory
excellent Content is summarised and critically reviewed
Write-up indicates excellent understanding of concepts
The description of the current state of the company is
appropriate and meaningful
The analysis is appropriate, meaningful and beyond the
obvious
40 to 59 Acceptable Some indication of understanding
(average to Somewhat integrated and linked to relevant concepts
good) Description of company is appropriate, with substantial
content
Analysis is appropriate with substantial content
0 to 39 Very poor, Content has been regurgitated
poor to fair Not consistently linked and integrated; somewhat disjointed
Description of company’s current state inappropriate and
superficial
Analysis inappropriate and superficial
Marks for the structure of the assignment 10% of total marks

7,5 to 10 Very good to Logical and well structured
excellent All elements of the report present and well linked
Good flow from section to section
5 to 7 Average to Somewhat logical structure
good Most of the elements present in the report
Evidence of an attempt to link the elements
0 or 4,5 Very poor to Lacking in structure
fair Illogical
Most of the elements of the report absent

Marks for Language usage and grammar of the assignment 10% of total marks

7,5 to 10 Very good to Consistent and very professional (fewer than four errors of
excellent punctuation, grammar and spelling)
All references complete and accurate and listed in the report
5 to 7 Average to Minor problems in sentence construction, some errors of
good word choice but the meaning is clear
A few spelling, grammar and punctuation errors
4 or 4,5 Poor to fair Vocabulary limited, frequent errors of word choice
Meaning is confused or obscured
Many spelling, grammar and punctuation errors
Below 4 Very poor Little knowledge of English vocabulary, grammar, spelling
and punctuation
Does not communicate
OTHER ASSESSMENT METHODS

More information about the form and scope of assessment, as well as the dates for such
assessment, will be supplied well in advance.
EXAMINATION
Portfolio examinations will be written at the end of the semester. The duration of the examination
is one week. The examination will consist of one or more case studies and specific questions
related to the case(s). All reading material set out in this module overview, together with all
material covered at the study schools, should be studied for the examination.
Examination eligibility will be according to the rules and procedures applicable to the PGD.
Students will be required to adhere to the Unisa examination timetable, as well as the
relevant Unisa assessment policy.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
The Study @ Unisa brochure contains an A-Z guide of the most relevant study information.
This brochure is available at http://www.unisa.ac.za/contents/study2016/docs/myStudies-
Unisa-2016.pdf
SOURCES CONSULTED
The following sources were consulted in compiling this module overview:
Evans, J.R. & Basu, A. 2013. Statistics, data analysis and decision modelling. 5th edition.
Pearson. ISBN: 13:978-0-273-76822-7
CONCLUSION
The successful completion of this module will testify to your fundamental understanding of
why and how managers make credible decisions, using appropriate quantitative and
quantitative tools and interpreting results within the business context.
Mr Ozias Ncube
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS LEADERSHIP
UNISA

PBA4804 Module Overview+2019 Sem+2

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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR MANAGERS

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Broad and specific outcomes

• analyse the art of effective decision modelling

• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of the role and importance of

• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of the role and importance of

• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of applying statistical quality control

• demonstrate an understanding of the Monte Carlo simulation model and its

• demonstrate an understanding of building, solving and interpreting the results of a

• demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of decision analysis models for

LECTURER(S) AND CONTACT DETAILS

Module leader: Mr Ozias Ncube

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• perform descriptive statistics on a given data set

• present visual displays of statistical measures of central tendency and dispersion

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Learning through activities

• conduct a “what-if” scenario analysis

Topic 2: Impact of decision modelling

• explain how you determine the value of decision making

• explain how the utility view enhances decision making

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• apply statistical quality control to assist decision making

• use probability distributions

• conduct hypothesis testing using statistical inference

• derive and use a regression model

• use quantitative techniques for forecasting

• apply statistical quality control to assist decision making

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Topic 4: Qualitative techniques

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MODULE-SPECIFIC STUDY PLAN

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General assignment numbers

Assignment Due date Year mark contribution Type Marks

01 19 August 2019 Contributes 30% Group 100

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VERY IMPORTANT – EXTENSIONS

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Food and beverage sales for the restaurant (R1000s)

(i) A graph of the time series. (10 marks)

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(a) Formulate the problem as a linear program. (15 marks)

(b) Use solver to solve your linear program (20 marks)

(c) Write down the optimal solution. (8 marks)

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REPEATERS’ INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT 01

Food and beverage sales for the restaurant (R1000s)

(i) A graph of the time series. (10 marks)

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REPEATERS’ INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT 02

(a) Formulate the problem as a linear program. (15 marks)

(b) Use solver to solve your linear program (20 marks)

(c) Write down the optimal solution. (8 marks)

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Marks for the structure of the assignment 10% of total marks

Score Level Criteria

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Score Level Criteria

OTHER ASSESSMENT METHODS