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Chapter 4 Probability
A. Sample Space & Events
1. Sample Space, S: The set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.
E.g. Roll a die:
Outcome: Lading with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 face up
Sample Space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, number of outcome in a trial, n(S) = 6

2. Events: subset of outcomes contained in the sample space S. An event is simple if it consists of exactly one
outcome and compound if it consists of more than one outcome.

3. Relation from set theory

--> the Union of two events A and B is the event consisting of all outcomes that are either in A or B.
Notation: A  B
--> the Intersection of two events A and B is the event consisting of all outcomes that are in A and B.
Notation: A ∩ B
--> the Complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in S that are not contained in A
Notation: A’
E.g. Rolling a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {1, 3, 5}
A  B = {1. 2. 3. 5}
A ∩ B = {1, 3}
A’ = {4, 5, 6}
--> Mutually Exclusive: when A and B have no outcomes in common, they are mutually exclusive or disjoint
events.
E.g. When rolling a die, if event A = {even} and event B = {odd}, then A and B are mutually exclusive.

Venn Diagram:

B. Probability
1. The PROBABILITY of an event is the ratio of the number of times an event occurs to the number of trials.

n( A)
P ( A) 
n( S )
Axiom 1 : 0  P(A)  1, for any event A

Axiom 2 : P(S)  1

E.g. When you toss a coin, what is the probability that it lands heads up?
A={H}; S = {H, T};
n(A)=1; n(S)=2;
P(A)= 1/2

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Properties of Probability: Complementary Probability Mutually Exclusive
A B A B
A

P( A  B)  0
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B ) P ( A' )  1  P ( A)
P ( A  B )  P( A)  P( B)
Conditional Probability: Independent Events

P( A  B)
P( A B)  P ( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
P( B)
Practice:
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Question 1:
The number 1, 2, ...., 9 are written on separate cards. The cards are shuffled and the top one is turned over.
Calculate the probability that the number on this car is prime.

Question 2:
A circular wheel is divided into three equal sector, numbered a 1, 2, and 3. The wheel is spun twice. Each time, the
score is the number to which the black arrow points. Calculate the probabilities of the following events:
A) both scores are the same as each other.
B) Neither score is a 2.
C) At least one of the scores is a 3
D) Neither score is a 2 and both scores are the same
E) Neither score is a 2 or both scores are the same

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Question 3:
James has three playing cards, two queens and a king. Lily selects one of the cards at random, and returns it to
James. Lily then selects a second card. Lily wins if both cards selected are kings. Find the probability that Lily
wins.

Question 4:
You draw two cards from an ordinary card deck. Find the probability that they are not both kings.

Question 5:
Two fair dice are thrown. A prize is won if the total is 4 or if each individual score is over 4. Find the probability
that a prize is won.

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Question 6:
Two fair dice are thrown. A prize is won if the total is 10 or if each individual score is over 4. Find the probability
that a prize is won.

Conditional Probability of A given B:

P( A  B)
P( A B) 
P( B)
E.g. A class of 30 pupils, of whom 17 are girls and 13 are boys. 5 of the girls and 6 of the boys are left-handed,
and all of the remaining pupils are right-handed. If a pupil is selected at random from the whole class, find the
chance that this girl is left-handed.

Let L = pupil chosen that is left-handed

P(L) = 11/30
P(L∩G) = 5/30
P(G)=17/30
P(L|G)=P(L∩G) / P(G) = 5/17
Question 7:
A competition between two boats, A and B, consists of a series of independent races and the competition will be
won by the first boat that wins three races. Each race will be won by either A or B, and their probabilities of
winning are influenced by the weather. In bad weather, the probability that A winds is 0.9 while in fine weather,
the probability of that A wins is 0.4. For each race the weather is either fine or bad and the probability of bad
weather is 0.2. Show that the probability of A winning the first race is 0.5.
Given that the first race is won by A, find the conditional probability that
i) the weather during the first race is bad
ii) A will wind the competition

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Independent Events P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B ) : The events that have no effect upon one another

P( A  B) E.g In a game, a contestant has to first spin a fair coin and then roll a fair cubical dice whose
P( A B) 
P( B) faces are numbered 1 to 6. The contestant wins a prize if the coin shows heads and the dice
P( A)  P( B) score is below 3. Find the probability that a contestant wins a prize.
 Let H = coin shows heads, T= coin shows tails, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 = dice score shows 1 to 6
P( B)
respectively
 P( A) P(prize won)
=P(head and below 3)
(T,1) (T,2) (T,3) (T,4) (T,5) (T,6)
=P(head) x P(below 3)
(H,1) (H,2) (H,3) (H,4) (H,5) (H,6) =1/2 x 2/6
=1/6

Question 8: Question 9:
Two ordinary dice are thrown. Find the probability that Two men fire at a target. The probability that Alan hits the target
a) at least one 6 is shown is 1/2 and the probability that Bob does not hit the target is 1/3.
b) at least one 3 is shown Alan fires at the target first, then Bob fires at the target. Find the
c) at least one 6 or at least one 3 is thrown probability that
a) Both Alan and Bob hit the target
b) only one hits the target
c) neither hits the target