CIRED workshop on E-mobility and power distribution systems Porto, 2-3 June 2022

Paper n° 1162

PROBABILISTIC REAL-TIME GRID OPERATION MANAGEMENT OF FUTURE

DISTRIBUTION GRIDS WITH HIGH PENETRATION OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS AND
ELECTRICAL VEHICLES BASED ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Marcel A RPOGA US Jasmin M ONTALBA NO Manuela LINKE

University of Applied Sciences Fraunhofer Institute for Solar University of Applied Sciences
HTW G Konstanz – Germany Energy Systems – Germany HTWG Konstanz – Germany
marcel.arpogaus@htwg-konstanz.de jasmin.montalbano@ise.fraunhofer.de manuela.linke@htwg-konstanz.de

Gunnar SCHUBERT
University of Applied Sciences
HTWG Konstanz – Germany
gunnar.schubert@htwg-konstanz.de

ABSTRACT STATE OF THE ART

In this paper, we propose a novel method for real-time
control of electric distribution grids with a limited number
of measurements. The method copes with the changing
grid behaviour caused by the increasing number of
renewable energies and electric vehicles. Three AI based
models are used. Firstly, a probabilistic forecasting
estimates possible scenarios at unobserved grid nodes.
Secondly, a state estimation is used to detect grid
congestion. Finally, a grid control suggests multiple
possible solutions for the detected problem. The best
countermeasures are then detected by evaluating the
systems stability for the next time-step.
INTRODUCTION
The rapid electrification of the transport sector and the
increasing share of renewable energy sources (RES) are
causing huge fluctuations in the distribution grid, which is
threatening overall system stability and requires new
methods for grid operation and planning. Since it cannot
be expected that distribution grids will be fully observable,
realistic forecast for potential load values and a reliable
state estimation is required [1]. Therefore, we propose a
probabilistic real-time predictive grid operation
management system, consisting of three AI-based models
(Figure 1), taking the uncertainties of distribution grids
with high penetration of RES and EV into account:
1. Autoregressive probabilistic forecasting model (FC) to
predict the power generation and consumption at
unobserved grid buses and future time-steps.
2. State estimation (SE) to take the forecasts into account
and monitor the system state based on Graph Neural
Networks (GNNs).
3. Grid control (GC) for an optimal predictive operation
management of transformer stations and controllable
generators such as EV or PV systems.
In the following, we will give a short overview of existing
solutions in the literature; we will then introduce our
proposed method and finally discuss the concept.
Probabilistic Load Forecasting
Low-voltage grids typically make up the largest part of
distribution systems but are still the least monitored and
controlled. Hermanns et al. [1] showed that accurate load
forecasts can be used for grid state estimation, rendering a
completely measured, hence expensive grid unnecessary.
They found that using forecasts to predict boundary
violations or overloads early enough to prevent grid
congestions is more effective and less expensive than
conventional grid enhancements.
Recent reviews like [2], [3] showed that probabilistic
forecasting helps to estimate the uncertainty informatio n
associated with the forecasts of low-voltage demand,
which tends to have higher volatility and lower seasonal
variation than high-voltage or aggregated demand.
Additionally, the change in customer behavior due to the
increasing electrification of mobility and heat increases the
complexity of customer load profiles and hence
forecasting errors with traditional point estimates rise.
Generally, uncertainty in forecasts can be modeled as
either simple prediction intervals [4], quantile estimates
[5] or as full continuous probability distributions [6].
In this paper, we will be using the novel Bernstein
Polynomial Normalizing Flow as proposed by Arpogaus et
al. [6] to model the continuous conditional probability
distributions for future time-steps. The method
outperformed existing parametric and nonparametric
methods in typical probabilistic metrics, exhibiting good
robustness and stable convergences while remainin g
computationally efficient even for higher degrees of
freedom. Compared to existing work, it allows flexib le
modeling of the conditional variables, without strong
parametric assumptions about the shape of the distribution
and directly optimizes the likelihood of the outcome. This
makes the approach particularly suitable for low-voltage
forecasts.

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 CIRED workshop on E-mobility and power distribution systems
Figure 1: Predictive grid control algorithm. The proposed method uses three AI-based models to enable stable operation of
distribution and micro grids.
State Estimation
State estimation is a standard procedure in transmission
grids to monitor the system state in real-time, i.e., bus
voltage magnitudes and angles. However, this is not
common at the distribution grid level. This stems from the
fact that distribution systems were mainly passive in the
past. With the integration of RES and the increase of
variable and less predictable loads, future distribution
grids become active [7]. In order to run a reliable and
stable grid, it will be inevitable for distribution grid
operators (DSOs) to monitor the system states.
Standard SE techniques, such as the Weighted Least
Squares (WLS) method, were originally developed for
transmission systems. They are based on solving a
nonlinear optimization problem through iterative solvers.
The WLS-method uses measurement data, like power
injections, together with physical laws to estimate the
system state [8]. This approach is not directly applicable to
active distribution systems due to underlying differences
between distribution and transmission system [9]. One
difficulty is that there are very few real-time measurements
available in comparison to the huge number of buses in
distribution grids. For unobserved buses, missing
quantities are forecasted (pseudo-measurements).
Consequently, using pseudo-measurements for almost all
buses increases the estimation error in WLS-methods.
Additionally, the higher penetration of RES introduces a
higher level of uncertainty [9]. Even with an expansion of
smart metering systems the difficulties will not change
fundamentally. Nevertheless, machine learning
approaches can make use of data gathered from future
smart grids. Especially artificial neural networks (ANNs)
show good performance in accuracy and robustness of SE
in distribution systems [10]. One approach is done in [11],
where pseudo-measurements are predicted with ANNs
trained from historical data. Moreover, there exist several
approaches of algorithms for distribution system state
estimation (DSSE) which are purely based on ANNs. The
authors in [12] developed an ANN-based scheme which
outperforms standard WLS-methods and other ANN-
based approaches made before. But, there are still
limitations of the existing ANN approaches to be widely
used in practice. The main disadvantage of common ANNs
is the lack of generalization for new grid topologies. They
have to be retrained for every distinct grid topology, even
for small changing of switching states. The approach for
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Paper n° 1162
DSSE presented in this paper is based on Graph Neural
Networks (GNNs), which allow for graph-structured
inputs and particularly overcome the applicability issues
for new grid topologies [13]. GNNs are able to capture the
topology of a grid and exploit it in the training process to
relate structural and other grid information. Moreover,
they are suitable for real-time monitoring due to shorter
computation times than iterative solving methods.
Recently, GNNs have been used for many power system
applications [14]. The GNN power flow solver in [15]
shows, for instance, the ability to generalize for new
topologies. These characteristics of GNNs indicate a
promising approach for real-time DSSE.
Grid Control
On transmission grid level there are several approaches to
determine critical grid situations by using artificial neural
networks [16]. However, on distribution grid level
distribution system operators currently operate grid control
manually. Power flow calculations used by conventional
grid simulation tools are very accurate to find solutions for
critical grid states but time-consuming and thus not
suitable for real-time simulations of complex grid
structures with an increasing number of generators and
additional loads. Therefore, we use a fast and reliable
approach as proposed by Linke et al [17] using a fully
connected neural network (fcNN) combined with a
minimal amount of power flow calculations.
METHOD
The proposed method combines three AI-based models to
enable stable operation of distribution and micro grids with
a limited number of measurements . Figure 1 illustrates the
structure of the composed system. The underlying grid
data can be defined as graph-structured data: We define the
distribution grid topology as a directed graph ‫ ܩ‬ൌ ሺܰǡ ‫ܮ‬ሻ,
where each node ݇ ‫ ܰ א‬represents a bus and each arc
ሺ݅ǡ ݇ሻ ‫ ܮ א‬represents a line linking buses ݅ to ݇ in the grid.
Transformers will be considered as lines in the model. In
addition to topology information, there is unique node
information like power measurements from smart meters
and meta data at each node ݇ ‫ܰ א‬.
Initialization Graph
The initialization graph is defined as ‫ܩ‬ூ ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻ with
ܰ ൌ ܰ௠ ‫ܰ ׫‬௪௠ ǡ where ܰ௠ and ܰ௪௠ defines the set of
 CIRED workshop on E-mobility and power distribution systems
buses with and without measurements, respectively. In the
following, we denote the active power as usual by the
symbol ܲ and the reactive power by ܳ. The set of node
features ܺூ ሺ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൌ ሼ‫ ݔ‬௞௧ ሽ௞ ‫א‬ே encodes the unique
information at each node ݇ ‫ ܰ א‬at time-step ‫ݐ‬, where
൫ܲ௧௞ ǡ ܳ௧௞ ǡ ݉݁‫ ܽݐ‬௞ ൯ǡ ‫ ݐ‬ൌ ‫ݐ‬଴ ൌ Ͳǡ ‫ܰ א ݇ ׊‬௠ ǡ
‫ݔ‬௧௞ ൌ ቐ ሺ‫כ‬ǡ‫כ‬ǡ ݉݁‫ ܽݐ‬௞ሻǡ ‫ ݐ׊‬൐ ‫ݐ‬଴ǡ ‫ܰ א ݇׊‬௠ǡ
ሺ‫כ‬ǡ‫כ‬ǡ ݉݁‫ ܽݐ‬௞ሻǡ ‫ ݐ׊‬൒ ‫ݐ‬଴ǡ ‫ܰ א ݇׊‬௪௠ Ǥ
Here, * indicates missing measurements. ݉݁‫ ܽݐ‬௞ is an
information tuple of different length, depending on how
much meta data, like building types or information about
existing loads or generators, is given for bus ݇Ǥ Each of the
three models argument the nodes of graph ‫ ܩ‬with new
information, to enhance the representation of the current
state in the distribution grid.
Probabilistic Forecasting Model
Input: ‫ ܩ‬ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻ and ܺூ ሺ‫ݐ‬ሻ.
The probabilistic forecasting model is used to predict the
probability density for all possible values for the active and
reactive power for the current time-step ‫ ݐ‬at every bus. The
autoregressive structure of the developed forecasting
model allows multiple possible load values to be drawn
from the predicted conditional probability density
functions, for each node as shown in Figure 2.
The proposed method uses a cascade of transformation
functions, known as normalizing flows, to directly model
the complex conditioned probability densities for each
node in the grid. Our approach uses a normalizing flow
implementation based on Bernstein polynomials, which
have been used in the statistics community for a while [18]
and was brought to deep learning by [19] and [20] and
applied to load forecasting by [6].
Figure 2: Autoregressive probabilistic forecasting model.
The exact details of the normalizing flow implementatio n
will be subject to a separate paper, but the core concept of
the method has already been described in [6].
As shown in previous work, the Bernstein polynomial
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Paper n° 1162
normalizing flows provides excellent res ults in modeling
complex univariate distributions. We take advantage of
this property and extend it by the use of topology
information by embedding it into a GNN similar to the
works of Errica et al. [21]. In a first draft these time-steps
are modeled uncorrelated but a real multivariate version
based on [20] is being worked on.
From the predicted densities a total of ܵଵ possible forecast
scenarios are drawn for all buses ݇ ‫ܰ א‬௪௠ Ǥ Missing
values * in ܺூ ሺ‫ݐ‬ሻ are filled with corresponding forecasts.
The node features are updated with these ܵ scenarios such
that ܺி ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ ൌ ൛ ‫ݔ‬௧ǡ௦
௞ ൟ
௞ ‫א‬ே
, where
ሺ ܲ௧௞ǡ ܳ௞௧ ǡ ݉݁‫ܽݐ‬௞ ሻ ǡ ‫ ݐ‬ൌ ‫ݐ‬଴ ൌ Ͳǡ ‫ܰ א ݇ ׊‬௠ ǡ
‫ݔ‬௞௧ǡ௦ ൌ ൞൫ܲ௧௞ǡ௦ ǡ ܳ௞௧ǡ௦ ǡ ݉݁‫ܽݐ‬௞ ൯ǡ ‫ ݐ ׊‬൐ ‫ݐ‬଴ ǡ ‫ א ݏ׊‬ሼͳǡ ǥǡ ܵሽǡ ‫ܰ א ݇׊‬௠ ǡ
൫ܲ௧௞ǡ௦ ǡ ܳ௞௧ǡ௦ ǡ ݉݁‫ܽݐ‬௞ ൯ǡ ‫ ݐ ׊‬൒ ‫ݐ‬଴ ǡ ‫ א ݏ׊‬ሼͳǡ ǥ ǡ ܵሽǡ ‫ܰ א ݇׊‬௪௠Ǥ
This model does not affect the grid topology. However, the
initial node features ܺூ are argumented with the generated
scenarios.
Output: ‫ ܩ‬ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻ and ܺி ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ for all ‫ א ݏ‬ሼͳǡ ǥ ǡ ܵଵ ሽ.
GNN State Estimation Model
Input: ‫ ܩ‬ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻ and ܺி ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ .
The GNN State Estimation (GNN-SE) model, presented in
Figure 3, is based on Graph Neural Networks. It follows a
brief explanation of the training data and the GNN -SE
model architecture. The model was implemented with
PyTorch Geometric (PyG), which is a library especially
built to write and train Graph Neural Networks [22].
Training data consists of one distribution grid topology
where each household is equipped with synthetic load
profiles of 15 minutes resolution for one year. Every time -
step ‫ ݐ‬is considered as one graph-data object ‫ ݐ‬during
training, containing the following information:
– Grid topology: Input grid as graph ‫ܩ‬ሺܰǡ ‫ܮ‬ሻ. The
adjacency matrix ‫ ܣ‬encodes the connection of buses
through lines with ‫ܣ‬௜௞ ൌ ͳ for all ሺ݅ǡ ݇ሻ ‫ ܮ א‬and ‫ܣ‬௜௞ ൌ
Ͳ, else.
– Node features: Currently, the GNN-SE receives only
active and reactive power as nodal inputs and no meta
data. The feature ߙ represents the bus type (slack bus:
ߙ ൌ Ͳǡ existing measurement: ߙ ൌ ͳ, no measurement :
ߙ ൌ ʹ).
– Edge features: Edge features ݁ ௜௞ are defined for all
ሺ݅ ǡ ݇ሻ ‫ܮ א‬. They describe the physical parameters of the
corresponding line or transformer station. In Figure 3,
‫ݔ‬ǡ ‫ݎ‬ǡ ݃ and ܾ are the parameters defining series
impedance ‫ ݖ‬ൌ ‫ ݎ‬൅ ݆‫ ݔ‬and shunt admittance ‫ ݕ‬ൌ ݃ ൅
݆ܾ, respectively. The feature ߚ represents the edge type
(line: ߚ ൌ Ͳ, transformer: ߚ ൌ ͳ).
– Output label: Voltage magnitude ܸ௧௞ and angle ߮௧௞ at all
nodes at time ‫ݐ‬Ǥ They are calculated with power system
analysis software beforehand.
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Paper n° 1162

Figure 3: GNN-State Estimation (GNN-SE).

The GNN-SE architecture: or changing the levels of a transformer.
1. Linear encoding layers for node and edge features: For each of those solutions a new probability density is
Mapping the features to a message vector of hidden generated using the probabilistic forecasting model, to
dimension d. This message captures information about predict the network dynamics for ‫ݐ‬଴ ൅ ͳ. ܵଶ new scenarios
the actual state and previous updates done in the are drawn from those densities and fed into the State
message passing step, as well as information about Estimation once again, to detect possible congestions and
neighboring nodes. evaluate if the proposed solutions help the system to
2. Message passing layer: The core functionality is the converge back into a stable state.
message passing step, where information between Output: Finally, the output consists of solution grid
neighboring nodes is exchanged. For every node ݇ ‫א‬ topologies defined as ‫ܩ‬஼ ሺ ‫ݐ‬଴ ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ܮ‬஼ ሺ‫ݐ‬଴ ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ ሻ and
ܰ an updating step is done, resulting in message adapted node features ܺ஼ ሺ‫ݐ‬଴ ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ for all critical scenarios.
vectors ‫ݔ‬ො௞௧ of dimension d for each graph-data object t.
Let ܾܰሺ݇ ሻ be the set of all neighbors of node ݇Ǥ
PROPOSED ALGORITHM
Information exchange between neighboring nodes is 1. Based on measurements at ‫ݐ‬଴ ൌ Ͳ the Probabilistic
performed as: Forecast Model generates ܵଵ scenarios for all
௝
‫ݔ‬ො ௧௞ ൌ ‫ ܲܮܯ‬ቀ ‫ݔ‬௧௞ ൅ ‫ ܩܩܣ‬൫൛ܴ݁‫ ܷ ܮ‬൫‫ݔ‬௧ ൅ ݁ ௝௞൯ ൅ ߳ ‫ ܾܰ א ݆ ׷‬ሺ ݇ሻ ൟ൯ቁ , unobserved nodes ܰ௪௠ Ǥ
2. The State Estimation Algorithm then predicts voltages
whereby edge features are also considered in the update
for each scenario at ‫ݐ‬଴ Ǥ
process [22]. Here, MLP corresponds to a multilay er
3. Check all ܵଵ scenarios for voltage violations at ‫ݐ‬଴ Ǥ
perceptron, AGG represents the aggregation function
4. The Grid Control Algorithm proposes C solutions for
(sum) and ReLU is used for activation. This message
all critical scenarios at time-step ‫ݐ‬଴ Ǥ
passing update can be repeated n times. The more
5. Based on those solutions, the Forecast Model generates
repetitions, the further the node information is emitted.
ܵଶ scenarios for the next time-step ‫ݐ‬଴ ൅ ͳǤ
E.g., for n=2 the updated vector ‫ݔ‬ො ௞௧ at node k contains
6. Estimate voltages for all ‫ ܥ‬ή ܵଶ scenarios and check
information from nodes two steps away. The amount of
them for violations at time-step ‫ݐ‬଴ ൅ ͳǤ
updating steps is a hyper parameter. Too many updating
layers could lead to over fitting, whereas training with 7. Choose solution ‫ ܥ‬at critical scenario ‫ݏ‬௖௥௜௧ found at ‫ݐ‬଴ ,
with the least violations for all scenarios ܵଶ.
too few updating steps could result in important node
information not being shared.
Finally, the updated node vectors can then be used to
perform a prediction:
3. PreLU activation function.
4. Linear Output Layer: The outcome at every node k is
transformed from dimension d to dimension 2, resulting
in voltage magnitude and angle.
The GNN-SE is used for every scenario ‫ א ݏ‬ሼͳǡ ǥ ǡ ܵଵ ሽǤ
Output:‫ ܩ‬ൌ ሺܰǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻǡ ܺௌா ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ ൌ ሼܺி ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ ǡ ܸ௧௞ǡ௦ ǡ ߮௧௞ǡ௦ ǡ ‫݇׊‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሽǤ

Grid Control Model

Input: G ൌ ሺܰ ǡ ‫ ܮ‬ሻ, ܺௌா ሺ‫ݐ‬ǡ ‫ݏ‬ሻ for ‫ ݐ‬ൌ ‫ݐ‬଴ and all ‫ݏ‬.
If there is a congestion for ‫ ܩ‬in any scenario s at the current
time-step ‫ݐ‬଴ , the Grid Control Algorithm is used to
determine ‫ ܥ‬different solutions, which could be in the form
of topology changes, through the (de-)activation of remote
controllable switches, affecting the set of arcs ‫ ܮ‬or other
countermeasures like throttling of controllable generators
Figure 4: The result of the proposed algorithm can be
thought of as a tree structure.
This process creates a solution tree (Figure 4). Solutions
are ranked by the number of potential critical subsequent
states. Hence, a higher number of critical scenarios derived

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from a solution, makes it less preferable. Solutions with an
equal number of congestions are considered equal.
CONCLUSION
To sum up, we propose a novel measurement-based
method for real-time control of distribution grids.
In a first step, we use probabilistic forecasting to get an
estimation for unobserved buses and then apply a novel
GNN state estimation to detect grid congestions. Finally,
we use a grid control model to build iteratively a solution
tree for different possible outcomes. By extrapolating one
time-step further, we estimate if the proposed solution
solves the problematic situation and stabilizes the system.
Composed of three AI models, our method is capable of
prescribing a grid control strategy in real time, even with a
low density of measurements for different topologies.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work has been funded by the Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
due to a decision of the German Federal Parliamen t
(Project Number: 67KI2012A).
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