4/27/2023

Chapter-9

Risk Assessment

RISK

• Risk expresses the likelihood that the harm from a particular hazard is realized, and is
a function of hazard and exposure.

• More formally risk can be defined as:

– The possibility that a harmful event (death, injury or loss) arising from exposure to
a chemical or physical agent may occur under specific conditions; or alternatively,

– The expected frequency of occurrence of a harmful event (Death, injury or loss)

arising from exposure to a chemical or physical agent under specific conditions.

1
 4/27/2023

Risk Assessment

• Risk assessment includes incident identification and consequence analysis.

• Incident identification describes how an accident occurs.

• Assessment frequently includes an analysis of the probabilities. It reviews probability

mathematics, including mathematics of equipment failure.

• Consequence analysis describes the expected damage. Showing how the failure probabilities
of individual hardware components contribute to the failure of a process

• Study of different probabilistic methods (Even tree and fault tree analysis, etc.)
3

• This includes loss of life, damage to the environment or capital equipment, and days outage.

• Powerful tool in the system in line with IS-15001, which is the overall process of estimating
the magnitude of risk and deciding whether or not the risk is tolerable.

• Suggests establishing and maintaining procedures to identify hazards and assess and control
risk related to its activities

• Statutory requirement for industrial activities involving certain hazardous chemicals of

specified quantities as per “Manufacture, Storage and Import of Hazardous Chemicals Rules,
1989”

• Can be applied to any hazardous activity in industry, irrespective of chemical hazards.

2
 4/27/2023

Review of Probability Theory

• Equipment failure in a process is result of a complex interaction of individual components.

Overall probability depends on nature of interaction.

• Generally, data are collected on failure rate of particular hardware component.

• Assume, μ = Average failure rate of a process component (faults/time)

• Probability that the component will not fail (Also called reliability, R) during time interval
(0, t) can be given by Poisson distribution as,
𝑅 𝑡 =𝑒 … … … (1)

• The compliment of the reliability is called failure probability (or unreliability) P, and is given
by,
𝑃 𝑡 = 1 − 𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − 𝑒 ….(1a)
6

3
 4/27/2023

• Failure density function (f) is defined as derivative of failure probability as,

𝑑𝑃 𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 = = 𝜇𝑒
𝑑𝑡

• Area under failure density function = 1

• Probability of at least one failure in the time period t0 to t1 can be calculated as,

𝑃 𝑡 →𝑡 = ∫ 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜇 ∫ 𝑒 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝑒
= Fraction of total area under failure density function between t0 and t1

• Mean time between failures (MTBF) = Time interval between two failures of the component

• Calculated as, 𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = 𝐸 𝑡 = ∫ 𝑡𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 =

• A typical bath-tub failure rate: Given in figure below, The failure rate is approximately
constant over the midlife of the component.

4
 4/27/2023

Interactions between process units

• Overall process failure probability is computed from individual component probabilities.

Parallel Interactions
• In some cases, process failure requires simultaneous failures of components in parallel and
represented by AND logic function (Figure given).

• So, overall failure probability for parallel case = P = Π (Pi)

where, Pi = Failure probability for an individual process i

• Also, overall reliability of the process = R = 1 − P

= 1 − Π (Pi) = 1 − Π (1 − Ri)
where, Ri = Reliability for same individual process i 9

Series interactions
• Failure of any single component in series will result in failure of overall process. Overall
system will be reliable if all individual components are reliable. This is represented with OR
logic function (Figure given).

• In this case, overall reliability, R = Π (Ri)

• Overall failure probability = P = 1 − R = 1 − Π (Ri) = 1 − Π (1− Pi)

• Particularly, for two component system,

P (A or B) = 1 − Π (1− Pi)
= 1 − [(1− PA) (1− PB)]
= 1 − [1 − PA − PB + PA PB]
= PA + PB − PA PB
10

5
 4/27/2023

• If failure probabilities are small, put PA PB= 0, So,

P (A or B) = PA + PB
So, we can use, P = ∑ Pi

11

Example: The water flow to a chemical reactor cooling coil is controlled by the system shown
in figure below. The flow is measured by a differential pressure (DP) device, the controller
decides on an appropriate control strategy, and the control valve manipulates the flow of
coolant. Determine the overall failure rate, the unreliability, the reliability, and the MTBF
for this system. Assume a 1-yr period of operation. The failure rates are given in table below.

Solution:
• Here, process components are in series. Thus, if any one of the components fails, the entire
system fails. 12

6
 4/27/2023

• Calculation of reliability and failure probability of individual components (Using t = 1 year)

• Now, overall reliability for components in series, R = Π (Ri)

• Overall failure probability (Unreliability), P = 1 − R = 1 – 0.10 = 0.90

• Using equation 𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 for overall process, putting R = 0.1 and t = 1 year, we get,
μ = 2.30 failures/yr

13
• Now, we know, MTBF =

Event Tree Analysis

• A method of risk assessment
• Begin with an initiating event
• Followed by impact of safety systems
• and works towards a final results
• Various safety systems to prevent accident (Either succeed or fail)
• Provide information on how a failure can occur and the probability of occurrence
• Construction of event tree, describing the resulting accident event sequences
• Effectively used to decide what improvements are required.

14

7
 4/27/2023

Example: Consider a chemical reactor system shown

in figure. Four safety functions are identified incase of
“loss of coolant”. The first safety function is the high-
temperature alarm. The second safety function is the
operator noticing the high reactor temperature during
normal inspection. The third safety function is the
operator reestablishing the coolant flow by correcting
the problem in time. The final safety function is
invoked by the operator performing an emergency
shutdown of the reactor. The failure rates of four
safety functions are 0.01, 0.25, 0.25 and 0.1
failure/demand, respectively. Develop an event tree
for “loss of coolant” as an initiating event. Also
determine occurrence/year for shutdown condition if
loss of cooling occurs once per year.
15

Solution:

16

8
 4/27/2023

• Lettering sequence ADE represents initiating event A followed by failure of safety functions
D and E.

• This event tree analysis shows that a dangerous runaway reaction will occur on average 0.025
time per year, or once every 40 years.

• Event tree analysis is used most successfully to modify the design to improve the safety.

• There is no certainty that the consequence of interest will actually result from the selected
failure. This is perhaps the major disadvantage of event trees.

17

Fault Tree Analysis

• Also a method of risk assessment

• Originated in the aerospace industry and have been used extensively by nuclear power
industry to qualify and quantify the hazards and risks associated

• It is becoming more popular in the chemical process industries, mostly as a result of the
successful experiences demonstrated by the nuclear industry.

• A deductive method for identifying ways in which hazards can lead to accidents

• Approach starts with a well-defined accident (or top event) and works backward toward the
various scenarios that can cause the accident.
18

9
 4/27/2023

Example: A flat tire on an automobile

19

• For reasonably complex chemical processes, a

number of additional logic functions are
needed to construct a fault tree.

• Given in the figure

Figure: Logic transfer components

used in fault tree 20

10
 4/27/2023

Example: A diagram of the safety systems in a

certain chemical reactor is shown in figure. This
reactor contains a high-pressure alarm to alert the
operator in the event of dangerous reactor
pressures. It consists of a pressure switch within
the reactor connected to an alarm light indicator.
For additional safety an automatic high-pressure
reactor shutdown system is installed. This system is
activated at a pressure somewhat higher than the
alarm system and consists of a pressure switch
connected to a solenoid valve in the reactor feed
line. The automatic system stops the flow of
reactant in the event of dangerous pressures.
Complete fault tree analysis. Data given.
21

Solution:

Event B and C: Series

interaction, or logic
function
So, R = ∏ Ri

Event A: Parallel
interaction, and logic
function,
So, P = ∏ Pi

Figure: Fault tree analysis for example 22

11
 4/27/2023

Thanks

23

12