A Competitive Low-Carbon Planning

toward net zero emission by 2050

Dr. Nanang Hariyanto*) , Kevin Marojahan B Nahor, PhD*), Suroso Isnandar,MScEE*)

*)Alin Nurliani**), Novia Hafnidah **)
*)School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics ,
**) School of Business and Management
INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG, INDONESIA
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 Disclaimer

• The presentation is inspired by indeep discussion with Dr. Ir. Djoko Prasetyo our adviser and
Former of Head Planning Office of Utility PLN

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 WHAT’S THE ISSUE?
1. To make economy more climate-friendly and less energy intensive by 2050 – looking at key
sectors such as power, industry, transport, buildings and farming.
2. To keep global warming below 1.5 to 2°C, the world will need to halve its emissions of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 2050 . It will need to reduce more – by 2050.
3. In 2050, a forecast world population of 9 billion, intense competition for oil, gas, and
other resources is likely to make fossil fuels much more expensive – unless we can improve
our energy efficiency and invest in non-fossil energy sources

4. In the major economies are also investing heavily in clean technologies, that will together
with the jobs and growth it brings

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 WHAT SHOULD BE PROPOSED FOR CALL ACTION ?
1. It should plan a 'roadmap' sets out the cost-effective route for transforming all into a
competitive 'low-carbon' economy starting at this century.

2. It includes and would involve cuts to greenhouse emissions by 2050 entirely through
measures taken within some regional. May be it should intermediate cuts of 25% by 2020(?)
40% by 2030(?) and 60% by 2050(?) would be required.

3. Improving energy efficiency, by investing in energy-efficient for buildings and

transports, industries and intensive forestations can make the biggest contribution to reducing
emissions.

4. Clean electricity – produced almost entirely without greenhouse emissions – will also have a
major role to play, partly replacing fossil fuels for electric drive, heating and transportation

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 WHAT WOULD THE BENEFITS BE?

• Developing low-energy intensity technologies and investing low carbon infrastructure, such as
developing a VRE and EV, industries efficiency technologies and developing a harvesting
energy sources will stimulate economic growth and help create inovations, new jobs and save
some existing jobs.
• This would improve energy security, strengthen our resilience to future fossil fuels price
increases
• Air pollution would be drastically reduced, leading to big savings in health costs and pollution
control measures.

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 opinions (1)

1. A net zero Emision is possible but requires strong policy. There are many potential pathways to
reach net zero by 2050, but reaching it depends on increased policy ambition from all program and
development of each country and government.

2. Big transitions are inevitable—especially due to global trends. The transition to net zero will
drive significant change in major economy, pushing a challenges for some regions and sectors
while also creating new opportunities. At the same time, much of this change will be driven by
factors outside of country control—particularly international climate policy and global demand for
energy —underlining the importance of seizing new opportunities and planning for transition.

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 opinions (2)
3. Each county has a competitive advantages that will create new opportunities in pursuit of net zero. Each country is
uniquely positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities as the world pursues emissions reductions.
regions to diversify and grow their economies by capitalizing on emerging sectors.

4. Scaling up “safe belts” (low-risk solutions that are available today) is crucial to reaching and 2050 targets, and
there is no reason to delay. Across the scenarios we examine to get a safe solutions. There are advantages to moving
ahead with these solutions quickly and decisively.

5. “Oportunity cards” (high-risk, high-reward solutions that are still in early stages of development) have an important
role to play in transition to net zero. Wild cards have the potential to fundamentally change path to net zero emission
action and it is required now to ensure these solutions are ready when it needs them. Yet wild cards should be
handled with careful attention to risk and uncertainty to award the win solutions.

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 opinions (3)

6. Safe belts and opportunity cards represent two distinct policy problems that are better considered in
one comprehensive policy conversations.

7. It should create incentives for the widespread deployment of “safebelt” solutions, include (i) a building
on policy mechanisms already through a portfolio approach, (ii) pursue a multiple potential solutions
hence (iii) it will mitigate and manage their high risks and its opportunities.

8. It should increase policy certainty by accountability frameworks—any structures that connect long-
term emission implementing robust climates reduction targets to near-term policy actions through
interim targets, regular and transparent monitoring and reporting, regular opportunities for a continuing
correction, and mechanisms to enhance government accountability

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 Opinions (4)
9. All of government countries should work together to provide targeted support so that the transition does
not impose disproportionate ensure that the path to net zero is fair and inclusive, win and win solution for
to minimize costs or obstacle of existing barriers for different regions, energy, industries, and residential
sectors, jobs and workers, and all communities groups

10. Engineered forms of negative emissions are a special type of wild card, best viewed as a complement to
other solutions rather than a substitute. Engineered forms of negative emissions face significant barriers
and uncertainty

11. Pathways to 2050 have far-reaching implications for the well-being population. If managed effectively, the
transition to net zero could maintain or improve the well-being of all populations. But it will require careful
attention to mitigate un-even impacts and ensure benefits are available to communities.
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 How …Indonesian planning toward NZE 2060

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Masterplan VS Network Development Plan
Masterplan and road map
▪ Conceptual plan with high uncertainty,
▪ Long-term, up to 50 years.
Really ..Longer than 20 years will be much more uncertain, and
less useful.
▪ Revised every 10 years.

Network Development Plan

▪ Detailed plan with lower uncertainty,
▪ Short to medium term, 5 – 10 years,
▪ Revised every 2 years in case of RUPTL: every year)
Objectives of Road map of Masterplan
Objectives of Network Development Plan (NDP): “to provide an
orderly and economic expansion of Gen and Trans facilities to meet
future demand.”
With this objectives, NDP is populated with detailed Gen and Trans
projects, in terms of technology, capacity, timing /COD, location,
connection points, ownership (IPP or Utilities such as PLN), etc.

Do we expect the same from a and Road map “Masterplan”?

Do we think the future will develop in a particular and expected
way?

Objectives of Road map Masterplan: “to provide visionary paths

towards some plausible futures under uncertainties”

The keywords here are: plausible, reasonable, believable, probable,

conceivable, but not ‘most likely to happen’.
Complexities of Road map and Masterplan Study
(1/3)
Demand in distant future is impossible to predict with accuracy
▪ Projections of economic growth by GOI (Indonesia such as MOF,
Bappenas, ESDM) are available only for short-terms, so are those by
international institutions.
▪ Elasticity between growth of electricity consumption and growth of GDP
is getting more erratic and unpredictable.
▪ Elasticity of electricity consumption to electricity price in the future is
unknown, moreover we have no knowledge on how electricity tariff is
going to unfold.
▪ ‘Learning curve’ of penetration of existing and new technology in energy
conservation in all consumer classes is unknown.
▪ ‘Learning curve’ of penetration of existing and new technology in energy
conservation for new technology such as EV, roof-top PV
▪ No clarity on the current regulations or roadmaps from GOI regarding
EV, roof-top PV, CO2 emission limit, etc.
Demand forecasting in a masterplan study should provide long-term
strategic views on development, and the forecasters should conduct socio-
economic study.
Complexities of Masterplan Study (2/3)
Similarly, supply options of the future are also hard to predict:
▪ Fossil-based electrical energy:
─ Will there be any restrictions on using coal in Indonesia? Any CO2
emission limits will be imposed?
─ USCs are proven, but some emerging technology are not, especially
on project cost: IGCC and CCS on coal PP.
─ Gas turbine combined cycles: proven, better efficiency, cost getting
lower, no uncertainties
▪ Intermittent RE
─ Roof-top PV: its penetration hard to predict in both timing and
volume
─ Utility-scale solar PV: ditto
─ Wind power: ditto
▪ Other emerging technology
─ BESS (Battery Energy Storage System): proven, need suitable market
to develop
─ Variable speed hydro pumped storage
─ Aggregated battery on EV, Nuclear power? Etc
Complexities of Masterplan Study (3/3)
Single Path versus Scenarios

▪ With demand growth and supply options in distant future so hard to

predict, can we create a single projection of demand – supply balance to
2050 and 2060?
In other words: Can we do a masterplan study without creating scenarios?
▪ If we choose a single path to the distant future (say one demand – supply
projection to 2050 and 2060), how can we tell that the chosen path is the
one that is ‘most likely to happen?’
(while nobody can foresee the future)
▪ Scenarios analysis is relevant in masterplan study.
It helps us to understand how the future may unfold through not a single,
but a number of plausible alternatives or paths.
Sensitivity Analysis Versus Scenario Analysis
▪ Both are commonly used to address uncertainties, but sensitivity analysis
is used only for changes of a single parameter of the ‘equation’.
▪ Whilst scenario approach can freely accommodate the need for exercising
changes of a number of parameters.
▪ Selection between the use of sensitivity and scenario analysis in a long-
term masterplan study would depend on our perception about the degree
of complexity and uncertainties involved.
▪ The more complex and uncertain a masterplan study, the more relevant
scenario analysis would be.
Scenario Planning Process (1/3)
The followings gives us some guidance in making scenario analysis of a
masterplan study:
▪ Identify the key drivers that shape the future network dev.:
Economic dev, government regulation & policies, government
engagement/involvement/leadership, , public acceptance, technology
penetration, etc
▪ Identify critical uncertainties:
Select only two key drivers (more than three will be cumbersome), for
example:
─ Government Engagement and Public Acceptance
─ Economic Development and Technology Penetration
─ Etc
Scenario Planning Process (2/3)

▪ Identify critical uncertainties (cont’d):

Plot the selected drivers on x-axis and y-axis

Driver 1
The trends of each axis can vary :
+ + means increase, stronger,
higher, etc
- + Driver 2 - means; decrease, weaker,
lower, etc

-
Once a set of two critical uncertainties have been selected, the
trends of parameters (i.e. their changes in the future) would be
estimated using our wisdoms and knowledge.
Scenario Planning Process (3/3)

▪ Develop plausible scenarios

Driver 1

+ Four scenarios are created from

2 1
- + Driver 2
3 4
-
the two selected key drivers.
For example, Scenario 1 is the
one when driver 1 and driver 2
are getting stronger in the
future.
Scenario Planning Process (3/3)

▪ Discussion, Modeling & Simulation to Identify Implications and Define

Paths
This phase of scenario planning would involve in-depth discussion, modeling and
simulation. From this work, we will identify the implication to the future power
network.

Demand
Supply ?
Transmission

year
2018 2027 2030 2035 2050
An Example of Scenario Planning (1/3)
Economic
Development
In this example, Economic
Development and Technology
+ Penetration are selected for the
2 1 Technology masterplan study.
- + Penetration
Here are the implications to the
parameters for Scenario-1 that
3 4 will shape the future power
- network:
High Economic Development: High GDP growth, lower discount rate,
consumers less elastic to electricity price, willingness to pay cleaner energy
from RE and pay for reduced CO2 emissions, increased ability to finance
capex for energy conservation, etc. Ability to purchase globally-traded LNG
in large volumes, etc. Ability to fund more hydro pumped storage (with
variable speed during pumping)
High Technology Penetration: Faster ‘learning curve’ for mass adoption of EV
and rooftop PV. Utility-scale solar PV arrive in larger quantity and sooner.
CCS technology more accessible. IGCC commercially available. Etc.
 An Example of Scenario Planning (2/3)

High Economic Development and High Technology Penetration would be discussed in great details.
Modeling and simulation will be made using appropriate tools.
The suggested tools are:
▪ Long Term Energy Forecasting Model (LTEFM)will be used for demand forecasting, however, some
additional variables would be introduced into the model, such as negative demand from Rooftop PV,
increased demand from EV charging, and elasticity to price.
▪ Generation Expansion Planning and Chronological Production Cost Simulation (GEP&CPCS)will be
used for capacity expansion planning, including intermittent RE, BESS, hydro pumped storage,
hydrogen storage. This will produce Network and Power Development Plan (NPDP) of scenario 1 to the
year 2050 and 2060
Operational performance of the NPDP would be further assessed by economic dispatch study using
CPCS as well.
GEP and CPCS will also be used to assess interconnection between Java-Bali power grid and some
nearest islands, i.e. such as in Indonesia : (i) Sumatra (rich in low rank coal), (ii)Kalimantan (North Kal
imantan is rich in hydropower), (iii)NTB.
Generation expansion planning will take into account some government target, such as Indonesian target
RE target of 23% RE penetrations
 An Example of Scenario Planning (3/3)
▪ DigSilent will be used to analyze the future power network by conducting load flow analysis and
fault current calculation.
Transmission network masterplanning would be conducted by a heuristic approach involving the use
of HVDC links, FACTS, UHV AC transmission etc.
▪ We will do the same discussion, modeling and simulation for Scenario 2, Scenario 3 and Scenario 4.
▪ Overall discussion of the four scenarios to get the specific features and the implications of the four
alternatives of network development.
This discussion would give PLN with some understandings and advices on how to use the Masterplan
as the reference document in updating the next revisions of RUPTL.
Process of Scenario Planning
▪ In the process of scenario planning, it is recommended that It should engage a group of
executives and experts from PLN to gather in a workshop and tell what they think of the
future of development.
▪ The workshop will discuss the key drivers, will select the two axis for scenario
development, and will discuss how modeling parameters would change in each of the
four scenarios.

2040

2027
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 Thank You

INDONEAIAN EXISTING ,,,,

Background
Java Bali Grid with 500 kV Backbone and dominated by Coal Power Plant

Peak Load : 28.094 MW (14 Oktober 2021; 18:00 WIB)

Energy production : 197.045 GWh
Gen capacity : 37.402 MW

Ref. : PLN P2B, Evaluasi Operasi Tahunan, 2021

Existing Condition : multiectoral interactions
Scheme and Business Model Indeonesian Electricity : heavily regulated and non-competitive market

C : KPI,
Holding C : DSCR

O : Profit O : Subsidi,
Dividen

O : LOLP C : Open Sector

O : Investasi

C : Tarif,
Losses,
Availibility,
Energi Primer

Multi objectives, multi constraints

optimization problem
Existing Condition : pre-arranged capacity market, single buyer operation, toward holding & subholding

Nat Genco 1

Generating Plant IPP ... IPP IPP PT IP PT PJB

Nat Genco 2
Rp/ USD
PLN GROUP PPA/SPJBTL
Geothermal
Genco
kWh PLN SEBAGAI
SINGLE BUYER
Transmision and RE Genco
TSA SSA Rp
TRANSMISI PSA SISTEM OPERATOR
and PLN UIP2B
UIT JBB, UIT JBT, UIT
System Operator JBTB Retail Co
Notes:
Network
Distributions DIST ... DIST DIST DIST = SLA
kWh Rp = energy send/sold
= Payment flow
CUST ... CUST CUST CUST
= Operation regulation
Ref. : PLN P2B, Evaluasi Operasi Tahunan, 2020
Batinge et.al, 2019, Sustainable energy transition framework for unmet electricity markets, Energy Policy 129, 1090-1099
Problems and Challenges : Green NDP (RUPTL)
Alocation of VRE intermitten should be increased significantly

63,3 40,6 99,2

GW GW GW

Installed New Installation Installed

Capacity RUPTL 2021- Capacity
2020 2030 2030

Connected Load in utility PLN Year 2020 is about 63,3 GW. Additional Planned is about 40,6 GW during 10 years with VRE portions
until reach of 20,9 GW or 51,6%. Retirement Coal plant palnned is about 1,1 GW and substitute of Diesel/Gas Engine/Gas
Turbine PP is about 3,6 GW> Hence the install capacities of utility PLN is about 99.2 MW in year 2030 .
Net Zero Emission 2060
It need reformation in the energy sector to breakdown the entry barrier of VRE in the grid system
METHODOLOGY
Expansion Planning with high VRE penetration
Basic questions that have to be answered:
Primary Energy Data
Hydro Geother Gas Coal 1.New generation capacity:
Projection of
▪When?
Candidates of RE Candidates of economic growth ▪What capacity?
projects Thermal projects ▪What role in power system? (baseload,
Demand forcast
medium, peaking)
Existing generation and
transmission systems ▪What kind of fuel? (type of coal, tyoe of
Optimization of
generation and Economic gas, RES)
transmission capacity Reserve criteria penalty ▪What technology? (Subcritical, SC, USC,
expansion plan CC, GT, GT)
▪Where?
Investment plan,
Policy, Financial
constraints
financial projection & 2.New transmission
funding requirement
•When?
•Role in power system (power evacuation,
Economic study (tariff)
supplying demand center, interconnection,
reliability enhancement)
•What capacity? What voltage level? HVAC?
Investment plan HVDC?
•Where?

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METHODOLOGY
Expansion Planning in utility PLN
METHODOLOGI
Fuzzy Cognitive Multi Agent System

MA da Rosa et al, 2012, Multi agent system

applied to reliability assessment of power
systems, Electrical Power and Energy Systems
42 (2012) 367-374
LOAD FORECASTER AGENT

Driver for Energy

Consumption

External Factors

Internal Factors
Number of Customer
Power Contracted
GDP Population
Commercial :
1. Construction
2. Trade, Restaurant & Hotel Electrification
3. Transportation & Ratio
Communication
4. Finance, Rent of Build &
Business Service

Availability of Power
Losses & Station Use
Tariff
Industry :
1. Mining & Quarrying Inflation
2. Manufacturing Industries
3. Electric, Gas & Water Supply
Household :
Total without Oil & Gas & its
product

Public :
Services
GENERATION EXPANSION AGENT
TRANSMISSION EXPANSION AGENT

- Existing
Network Data - On-going

Reliability & Quality

Generation Criteria: N-1, voltage:
Planning 0,95-1.05, fault clearing
Network time for 500 kV, 150 kV
development
Demand study - Loadflow Analysis
forecast - Short-circuit Analysis
New S/S - Stability Analysis

Capacity
Investment
Balance of
Program
Substations Extension
Max loading 70-80%
Project Financing
proposal
Tool will be used
Modeling of VRE integration using FCMAS

Agent Development Platform Energy Production Management Power Flow Analysis

and Dispatching Simulation
 Indonesian energy transition is a part of energy and sustainability how to meet the needs
of our society without compromising the rights of future generations

Only one country grows in my mind, that country grows by an action, and those actions are
my deeds

THANK YOU

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