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Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in
Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in
doi: 10.1093/rof/rfx034
Advance Access Publication Date: 20 July 2017
Abstract
We characterize dependence in corporate credit and equity returns for 215 firms
using a new class of large-scale dynamic copula models. Copula dependence and
especially tail dependence are highly variable and persistent, increase significantly
in the financial crisis, and have remained high since. The most drastic increases in
credit dependence occur in July/August of 2007 and in August of 2011 and the de-
crease in diversification potential caused by the increases in dependence and tail
dependence is large. Credit default swap correlation dynamics are important deter-
minants of credit spreads.
1. Introduction
Characterizing the dependence between credit-risky securities is of great interest for port-
folio management and risk management, but not necessarily straightforward because multi-
variate modeling is notoriously difficult for large cross-sections of securities. In existing
work, computationally straightforward techniques such as factor models or constant
* The authors would like to thank the editor (Amit Goyal), an anonymous referee, Pierre Collin-
Dufresne, Jan Ericsson, Jean-Sebastien Fontaine, Dmitriy Muravyev, Andrew Patton, Alberto
Plazzi, Anders Trolle, Stuart Turnbull, and participants at the AFA Annual Conference, the EFA
Annual Conference, the NYU Volatility Institute’s Conference on the Volatility of Credit Risk, the
IFSID-Bank of Canada Conference on Tail Risk, the SoFiE Conference, EPFL, HEC Lausanne, and the
Columbia University Conference on Copulas and Dependence for useful comments. Christoffersen
is grateful for financial support from SSHRC, GRI, and the Bank of Canada. Langlois is grateful for fi-
nancial support from the Investissements d’Avenir Labex (ANR-11-IDEX-0003/Labex Ecodec/ANR-
11-LABX-0047).
C The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Finance Association.
V
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522 P. Christoffersen et al.
copulas are often used to model correlations for large portfolios of credit-risky securities;
alternatively, simple rolling correlations or exponential smoothers are used.
We instead use multivariate econometric models for the purpose of modeling credit cor-
relation and dependence. We use genuinely dynamic copula techniques that can capture
univariate and multivariate deviations from normality, including multivariate asymmetries.
We demonstrate that by using recently proposed econometric innovations, it is possible to
apply copula models on a large scale that is essential for effective credit risk management.
We perform our empirical analysis using data on a large cross-section of credit-risky secur-
1 Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986) developed the first ARCH and GARCH models. Bollerslev (1990)
first combined the GARCH model with a t-distribution.
2 See Engle and Kroner (1995) for an early multivariate GARCH model and Engle and Kelly (2012) for a
simplified dynamic correlation model.
524 P. Christoffersen et al.
available for every day of this sample period. Fortunately, as shown by Patton (2006a), the
dynamic multivariate modeling approach we employ in our empirical work allows for indi-
vidual series to begin (and end) at different time points. We make full use of this and in-
clude a firm if it has at least 1 year of consecutive weekly data points. The resulting list of
215 firms is provided in Table I.
We construct nonoverlapping weekly returns using a fixed day each week. We use
Wednesdays, which is the weekday that is least likely to be a holiday. We obtain equity
data on the sample firms from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). Out of the
ðs ðt-1ÞÞ
Rt ¼ ð1 RECÞ þ CDSt1 ; (2.1)
360
where CDSt is the CDS spread at time t, s is the credit event date and REC is the recovery
rate in case of default. We obtain these ex post recovery rates from creditfixings.com. In the
absence of a credit event, the weekly return to the protection seller is:
7 7
Rt ¼ ðCDSt CDSt1 Þ PVBPt ðCDSt ; RECÞ þ CDSt1 ; (2.2)
360 360
where PVBPt ðCDSt ; RECÞ is the present value of a risky annuity of one basis point defined as:
ð tj !
XJ
tj tj1 u tj1
PVBPt ðCDSt ; RECÞ ¼ Dðt; tj ÞSðt; tj Þ Dðt; uÞdSðt; uÞ ;
j¼1
360 maxft;tj1 g 360
(2.3)
with payment at dates t < t1 < . . . < tJ , and where Dðt; tj Þ is the discount factor used
from time tj to t, and Sðt; tj Þ is the risk-neutral survival probability up to time tj.5 In our em-
pirical implementation, we obtain the survival probability for each firm by calibrating
tj t
a constant default intensity k for the life of the contract. This implies Sðt; tj Þ ¼ exp k 360
3 The twelve firms are: AT&T Mobility LLC, Bombardier Capital Inc., Bombardier Inc., Cingular
Wireless LLC, Capital One Bank USA National Association, Comcast Cable Communication LLC,
General Motors Acceptance Corp., Intelsat Limited, International Lease Finance Corp., National
Rural Utilities Coop Financial Corp., Residential Capital Corp., and Verizon Global Funding Corp.
4 In a robustness analysis, we use log-differences in CDS spreads. The dependence results are very
similar.
5 To compute this present value, we need recovery rates for the entire cross-section of firms at all
times. We obtain these recovery rates from Markit. When Markit does not provide a recovery rate,
we use 0.4, which is the industry standard.
Table I. Company names
Using data from Markit, we consider all firms included in the first eighteen series of the CDX North American investment grade index dating from January 1,
2001 to August 22, 2012. Our sample consists of 215 firms. Firms ordered alphabetically within each GIC sector.
Black & Decker Corp. Walt Disney Co Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. American International Group Inc.
Brunswick Corp. Wendy’s International Inc. CSX Corp. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
CBS Corp. Whirlpool Corp. Caterpillar Inc. Boston Properties LP
CENTEX Corp. YUM! Brands Inc. Cendant Corp. CIT Group Inc.
Carnival Corp. Deere & Co Capital One Bank USA Nat. Assoc.
Clear Channel Comms Inc. Consumer Staples GATX Corp. Capital One Financial Corp.
Comcast Cable Communication LLC Albertsons Inc. General Electric Capital Corp. Chubb Corp.
Comcast Corp. Altria Group Inc. Goodrich Corp. Countrywide Home Loans Inc.
Cox Communications Inc. Beam Inc. Honeywell International Inc. EOP Operating LP
DIRECTV Holdings LLC CVS Caremark Corp. Ingersoll Rand Co ERP Operating LP
Darden Restaurants Inc. Campbell Soup Co Lockheed Martin Corp. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.
Delphi Corp. ConAgra Foods Inc. Masco Corp. Federal National Mortgage Assoc.
Eastman Kodak Co General Mills Inc. Norfolk Southern Corp. General Motors Acceptance Corp.
Expedia Inc. H. J. Heinz Co Northrop Grumman Corp. Hartford Financial Services Group
Ford Motor Credit Co Kraft Foods Inc. Pitney Bowes Inc. International Lease Finance Corp.
GAP Inc. Kroger Co R. R. Donnelley & Sons Co Loews Corp.
(continued)
525
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Inc. Citizens Communication Co Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold American Electric Power Co Inc.
TJX Companies Inc. Embarq Corp. International Paper Co Constellation Energy Group Inc.
Target Corp. Intelsat Limited MeadWestvaco Corp. Dominion Resources Inc.
Time Warner Cable Inc. Sprint Corp. Olin Corp. Duke Energy Carolinas LLC
Time Warner Inc. Verizon Communications Inc. Rio Tinto Alcan Inc. Exelon Corp.
Toll Brothers Inc. Verizon Global Funding Corp. Rohm & Haas Co FirstEnergy Corp.
Toys “R” Us Inc. Sherwin Williams Co Progress Energy Inc.
Temple-Inland Inc. Sempra Energy
527
and dSðt; uÞ ¼kexp k ut 360 du in Equation (2.3). We use Bloomberg’s zero curve to com-
pute the risk-free discount rates.
While CDS levels display a high level of persistence, the presence of the last term in
Equation (2.2) related to the CDS level, CDSt1 , adds only a very small persistent compo-
nent to CDS returns. The first term in Equation (2.2), which depends on the change in CDS
spreads and the present value of the risky annuity, is orders of magnitude larger than the
last term. We show in Section 2.2 that the persistence in CDS returns is only slightly higher
than the persistence in equity returns.
Utilities (8). For ease of exposition, Figure 3 combines the energy and utility sectors which
separately have few firms.
The impact of the financial crisis is obvious in Figure 3, but interestingly the crisis af-
fected different industries quite differently. Some industries, Information Technology and
Telecommunication Services in particular, were affected as much or even more by the
2001–03 dot-com bubble versus the 2007–09 crisis.
In Table II, we report sample moments averaged across firms for CDS and equity re-
turns. Panel A of Table II shows the median across firms of the first four sample moments
of weekly CDS and equity returns along with the IQR for each moment. Average annual-
ized equity returns are 10.48%. The average annualized returns to selling credit protection
are much lower at 0.91%, which is not surprising given our sample period. We also report
the Jarque–Bera tests for normality as well as the first two autocorrelation coefficients.
530 P. Christoffersen et al.
Note the strong evidence of non-normality as well as some evidence of dynamics in the
weekly CDS returns. We will model both of these features below.
In Panel B, we report statistics for the distribution of sample correlations between CDS
and equity returns. On the diagonal we report the median and IQR of the correlations be-
tween each firm and all other firms, using either credit or equity. On the off-diagonal we re-
port the same statistics for the distribution of the correlation between the CDS and equity
returns on the same firm. The relatively high and robust positive correlation between
weekly equity returns and weekly CDS returns is expected because we consider the returns
to selling credit protection.
Diversification in Corporate Credit 531
Figure 3. Median CDS spread by sector. We report the weekly median CDS spread by sector using the
GIC sectors in Table I. We combine the energy and utility sectors. Each panel title indicates the total
number of firms available for each sector throughout the sample. Note that the scale differs across
sectors.
In order to further explore the dependence across firms we compute threshold correl-
ations, following Ang and Chen (2002) and Patton (2004), for example. For a pair of firms
i and j, we define the threshold correlation qij ðxÞ using standardized returns Ri and Rj
(
CorrðRi ; Rj jRi < x; Rj < xÞ when x < 0
qij ðxÞ ¼ (2.4)
CorrðRi ; Rj jRi x; Rj xÞ when x 0;
where we have standardized returns by their sample mean and standard deviation, and thus
measure x as the number of standard deviations from the mean. The threshold correlation
reports the linear correlation between two assets for the subset of observations lying in the
Table II. Descriptive statistics on CDS and equity returns
532
We report sample moments on weekly CDS and equity returns across firms. Panel A reports sample moments computed using weekly returns for CDS and
equity. The CDS return is the return from selling credit protection. Panel B reports average sample correlations across firms using weekly returns. On the diag-
onal we report the median and IQR of the correlations between each firm and all other firms, using either credit or equity. On the off-diagonal we report the me-
dian and IQR of the correlation between CDS and equity returns for the same firm.
Annualized Annualized standard Skewness Kurtosis Jarque–Bera AR(1) coefficient AR(2) coefficient
average (%) deviation (%) p-value
CDS
Median 0.91 4.42 –0.83 19.79 0 0.10 0.04
IQR [0.46, 1.70] [2.56, 7.12] [–1.79, 0.18] [14.24, 33.74] [0.00, 0.00] [0.03, 0.19] [–0.02, 0.09]
Equity
Median 10.48 34.73 0.02 7.46 0 –0.04 –0.02
IQR [6.19, 16.63] [27.94, 43.23] [–0.31, 0.38] [5.91, 11.06] [0.00, 0.00] [–0.07, 0.00] [–0.06, 0.02]
CDS Equity
CDS
Median 0.343 0.349
IQR [0.219, 0.457] [0.243, 0.451]
Equity
Median 0.322
IQR [0.248, 0.408]
P. Christoffersen et al.
Threshold Correlations
Figure 4. Threshold correlations for CDS and equity returns and their AR-GARCH residuals. For each
pair of firms we compute threshold correlations on a grid of thresholds defined using the standard devi-
ation from the mean for each firm (horizontal axis). The solid lines show the median threshold correlations
across firm pairs, the gray areas mark the IQRs and the dashed lines show the threshold correlations
from a bivariate Gaussian distribution with correlation equal to the average for all pairs of firms.
bottom-left or top-right quadrant. In the case of the bivariate normal distribution the
threshold correlation approaches zero when the threshold x goes to plus or minus infinity.
Panels A and C of Figure 4 report the median and IQR of the bivariate threshold correl-
ations computed across all possible pairs of firms. Both the CDS and the equity threshold cor-
relations in Panels A and C are high and show some evidence of asymmetry: large downward
moves are more highly correlated than large upward moves. Also, both Panels A and C in
Figure 4 show strong evidence of multivariate non-normality. This is evidenced by the large
deviations of the solid line (empirics) from the dashed lines (normal distribution). Adequately
capturing these non-normalities motivates the non-normal copula approach below.
borrowers’ creditworthiness fluctuates with the business cycle. While the change in the
probability of default for an individual borrower is of interest, the most important question
is how the business cycle affects the value of the overall portfolio, and this depends on de-
fault dependence. An investment company or hedge fund that invests in a portfolio of cor-
porate bonds faces a similar problem. Over the last decade, the measurement of default
dependence has taken on added significance because of the emergence of new portfolio and
structured credit products, and as a result new methods to measure correlation and depend-
ence have been developed.
6 The structural approach goes back to Merton (1974). See Black and Cox (1976), Leland (1994) and
Leland and Toft (1996) for extensions. See Zhou (2001) for a discussion of default correlation in the
context of the Merton model.
7 See Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), Jarrow, Lando, and Turnbull (1997), Duffee (1999), and Duffie and
Singleton (1999) for early examples of the reduced form approach. See Lando (2004) and Duffie and
Singleton (2003) for surveys.
Diversification in Corporate Credit 535
correlation between the default probabilities, can be modeled in a second stage, after the
univariate distributions have been estimated. In some cases the copulas are also parsimoni-
ously parameterized and computationally straightforward, which facilitates calibration.
Calibration of the correlation structure is mostly performed using CDO data. The simple
one-factor Gaussian copula is often used in the literature, but extensions to multiple factors
(Hull & White, 2010), stochastic recovery rates (Hull & White, 2006), and non-Gaussian
copulas provide a better fit.
In contrast to existing static approaches, in our analysis of CDS returns the emphasis is
8 We build on Jondeau and Rockinger (2006), who analyze dynamic dependence using symmetric
copulas.
536 P. Christoffersen et al.
where t is assumed to be uncorrelated with Rs for s < t, the conditional mean for Rt con-
structed at the end of week t – 1 is simply
lt ¼ l þ /1 Rt1 þ . . . þ /p Rtp :
t ¼ rt zt
zt i:i:d: astðk; Þ
where we constrain a1 ; a2 ; b1 ; b2 > 0, and the variance persistence to be <1, and set the un-
conditional variance, r2 , equal to the sample variance of t . The i.i.d. return residuals zt are
assumed to follow the asymmetric standardized t-distribution from Hansen (1994) which
we denote astðk; Þ. The skewness and kurtosis of the residual distribution are nonlinear
functions of the parameters k and . When k ¼ 0 the symmetric standardized t-distribution
is obtained. When k ¼ 0 and 1= ¼ 0, we get the normal distribution. The corresponding
cumulative return probabilities are given by
ð r1
t ðRt lt Þ
gt Prt1 ðR < Rt Þ ¼ r1
t astðz; k; Þdz: (3.3)
1
Note that the individual residual distributions are constant through time, but the indi-
vidual return distributions do vary through time because the return mean and variance are
dynamic. Using time series observations on t , the parameters b1, b2, a1, a2, c1, c2, k and
are estimated using a likelihood function based on (3.2) and astðz; k; Þ.
When estimating the standard NGARCH models on CDS returns we found that in
many cases they did not pass standard specification tests. Motivated by Brenner, Harjes,
and Kroner (1996) we therefore instead estimate a level NGARCH model defined by
t ¼ rt zt
r2t ¼ Wt CDS2d
t (3.4)
For each firm, we estimate in a first step an AR(12) model and remove the least significant lag until all lags are significant as long as a Ljung–Box test on re-
siduals is not rejected at the 5% level. Panel A contains summary statistics on chosen AR specifications. For stock returns, we then estimate a NGARCH(1,1)
model on residuals. If the Ljung–Box test on squared standardized equity residuals is rejected at the 5%, we estimate an NGARCH(2,2). For CDS returns, we esti-
mate a Level-NGARCH(1,1). In both cases, the residual distribution is asymmetric t with parameters and k. Panel B contains median and IQRs for NGARCH par-
ameters as well as summary statistics on chosen model specifications. L-B(4) denotes a Ljung–Box test with four lags that the squared residuals (Panel B) are
serially uncorrelated.
Figure 5. Median conditional volatility of CDS returns by sector. We report the weekly median condi-
tional volatility of CDS returns by sector using the GIC sectors in Table I. Conditional volatility is esti-
mated using a level-NGARCH model for each firm. We combine the energy and utility sectors. Each
panel title indicates the total number of firms available for each sector throughout the sample.
motivates our use of the asymmetric standardized t innovations. As expected, the correl-
ations between CDS and equity returns residuals are not materially different from the raw
return correlations in Panel C of Table II.
Finally, Panels B and D of Figure 4 plot the median and IQR threshold correlations on
the weekly AR-NGARCH residuals. Compared to the threshold correlations from raw re-
turns in Panels A and C, the median threshold correlations in residuals are typically lower,
but still higher than the bivariate Gaussian distribution (dashed lines) would suggest.
Overall, Figure 4 indicates that by removing univariate non-normality from the data, the
AR-NGARCH models are also able to remove some of the multivariate non-normality.
Modeling the remaining multivariate non-normality is the task to which we now turn.
Table IV. AR-NGARCH residual statistics and dynamic copula parameter estimation
We report sample statistics on AR-NGARCH residuals and estimation results for different copula models. Using the AR-NGARCH residuals, z, we compute in
Panel A the median and IQR of the skewness, kurtosis, correlations for each pair of firms, and correlations between CDS and equity for each firm. We estimate
the DAC and the DSC with and without a time trend for the degree of freedom, and the DNC models on the 215 firms in our sample. Each of the models is esti-
mated on AR-NGARCH residuals from weekly returns from selling the CDS contract and buying the equity. In the last two rows of Panel B and C, we report the
Rivers and Vuong (2002) test statistics for model comparison.
Model I: c(t) ¼ 4 þ dC,0 Model II: c(t) ¼ 4 þ dC,0 exp( dC,1 t ) Model III: c(t) ¼ 4
þ dC,0 exp(dC,1 t þ dC,2 t2 )
CDS returns Equity returns CDS returns Equity returns CDS returns Equity returns
Model comparison t-statistic with DAC Model I – – 0.42 0.83 1.19 0.21
(continued)
bC 0.956 0.908
aC 0.016 0.018
Correlation persistence 0.971 0.927
Composite log-likelihood 936,795 638,289
P. Christoffersen et al.
Y
N Y
N
ft ðRt Þ ¼ ct ðF1;t ðR1;t Þ; F2;t ðR2;t Þ; . . .; FN;t ðRN;t ÞÞ fi;t ðRi;t Þ ¼ ct ðg1;t ; g2;t ; . . .; gN;t Þ fi;t ðRi;t Þ;
i¼1 i¼1
(3.5)
where bC and aC are positive scalars, and zt is an N-dimensional vector with typical elem-
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ent zi;t ¼ zi;t Cii;t . The matrix Ct is a weighted average of three components: a constant
matrix X which captures the average level of correlation, an auto-regressive term Ct1 re-
flecting how conditional correlations in the previous period affect current correlations, and
the cross-product of zt1 which depicts how lagged (transformed) return shocks impact cur-
rent correlations. The weighting parameters, bC and aC , describe how current correlations
are affected by these components; a higher aC indicates that a positive (negative) cross-
product of shocks, zi;t1 z>j;t1 , translates into a larger increase (decrease) in Cij;t compared to
a smaller aC value, whereas a higher bC smooths over time the correlation deviations from
their average level X.
The conditional copula correlations are defined via the normalization
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Wij;t ¼ Cij;t = Cii;t Cjj;t :
544 P. Christoffersen et al.
To allow for general patterns in tail dependence, we allow for slowly moving trends in
the degrees of freedom. Following Engle and Rangel (2008), who model the trend in volatil-
ity, we define the degree of freedom at time t, C;t , using an exponential quadratic spline
X
k
C;t ¼ C þ dC;0 exp ðdC;1 t þ dC;jþ1 maxðt tj1 ; 0Þ2 Þ (3.8)
j¼1
where C is the lower bound for the degrees of freedom, which is equal to four for the
skewed t copula, dC;0 ; . . .; dC;kþ1 are scalar parameters to be estimated, and ft0 ¼ 0; t1 ; . . .;
where ct is the copula density from (3.5) and Ti;j is the sample size available for pair i and j.
Note that the CL function is built from the bivariate likelihoods so that the inversion of
large-scale correlation matrices is avoided. In a sample as large as ours, relying on the CL
approach is imperative. The unconditional correlations are estimated by unconditional mo-
ment matching (See Engle and Mezrich, 1996)
X T
i;j
^ i;j ¼ 1
X z z ; (3.10)
Ti;j t¼1 i;t j;t
which is another crucial element in the feasible estimation of large-scale dynamic models.
As discussed above, the estimation of dynamic dependence models using long time series
and large cross-sections is computationally intensive. In our case, estimating the dynamic
copula models for 215 firms is possible only because we implement unconditional moment
matching and the CL approach. An additional advantage of the CL approach is that we can
use the longest time span available for each firm pair when estimating the model param-
eters, thus making the best possible use of a cross-section of CDS time series of unequal
length.
Diversification in Corporate Credit 545
Ct ðf; fÞ
sLi;j;t ¼ lim Pr½gi;t fjgj;t f ¼ lim (3.11)
f!0 f!0 f
546 P. Christoffersen et al.
where f is the tail probability.9 Upper tail dependence is defined analogously. We obtain an
approximation by numerically integrating the copula density function, and using the 0.001
quantile for lower and the 0.999 quantile for upper tail dependence. We plot the lower tail
dependence, because it is the most interesting of the two tails from a risk perspective.
Importantly, Figure 7 shows that equity and credit tail dependence increase more over the
sample than the copula correlations in Figure 6.
In Figure 8, we plot the median DAC correlation of CDS and equity returns for the nine
industries in Figure 3. Figure 9 does the same for the tail dependence of credit and equity.
While the uptick in credit correlation during 2007 is evident for most industries, the vari-
ation across industries is large. The time paths of credit and equity tail dependence are
9 See Patton (2006b) for an application of the tail dependence measure to exchange rates.
Diversification in Corporate Credit 547
clearly different from each other and are fairly similar across industries, because all indus-
tries share the same trend.
4. Economic Applications
In this section, we apply our estimated credit volatilities and correlations to the measure-
ment of portfolio diversification benefits and to credit spread prediction. Finally, we inves-
tigate potential economic drivers of the credit return correlations.
premia collected are readily observed, the institution needs a model such as that developed
above to provide real-time quantification of the expected benefits from diversification.
To be specific, we consider an equal-weighted portfolio of the constituents of the on-
the-run CDX investment grade index in any given week. We want to assess the diversifica-
tion benefits of the portfolio using the dynamic, non-normal copula model developed
above. As in Christoffersen et al. (2012), we define the conditional diversification benefit
by
where ESt ðpÞ denotes the expected shortfall with probability threshold p of the portfolio at
hand, ES t ðpÞ denotes the average of the ES across firms, which is an upper bound on the
portfolio ES, and ES t ðpÞ is the portfolio VaR, which is a lower bound on the portfolio ES.
Diversification in Corporate Credit 549
The CDBt ðpÞ measure takes values on the ½0; 1 interval, and is increasing in the level of di-
versification benefit. Note that by construction the conditional diversification benefit
(CDB) does not depend on the level of expected returns. Expected shortfall is additive in
the conditional mean which thus cancels out in the numerator and denominator in (4.1).
Note also that CDB takes into account diversification benefits arising from all higher-order
moments and not just variance. The CDB measure depends on the threshold probability p.
Below we consider p ¼ 5%. The CDB measure is not available in closed form for our dy-
namic copula model and so we compute it using Monte Carlo simulation.
Each week t we form an equally weighted portfolio of the 125 companies in
the CDX.NA.IG index at time t. We use the longest available history of returns up to week
t – 1 to estimate the unconditional correlation matrix for the 125 firms, and then compute
the conditional correlations from our DAC model. In order to have sufficient historical
550 P. Christoffersen et al.
data available, we keep only firms with at least 2 years of data, and start on September 22,
2004, which is the first day of Series 3 of the index.
The solid black line in Figure 10 shows the CDBð5%Þ measure for an equal-weighted
portfolio selling credit protection as well as for an equal-weighted portfolio of equity re-
turns for the same firms. First, consider Panel A: diversification benefits for CDS have
declined from about 80% at the end of 2004 to around 50% at the end of our sample. The
majority of the decline took place during the mid-2007 to mid-2008 period and was rela-
tively gradual. Panel B shows that the decline in diversification benefits in equity markets
has been smaller in magnitude, from just over 70% in 2007 to around 60% at the end of
our sample. The majority of the decline in equity market diversification benefits took place
Diversification in Corporate Credit 551
at the end of 2008. The decline in diversification benefits from equity occurred later than
the decline in diversification benefits in credit. This is consistent with the correlation and
tail dependence patterns in Figures 6 and 7.
Figure 10 also depicts the average volatilities (in gray, on the right-hand axis) and the
average correlations (the dashed line, on the left-hand axis). Intuitively, changes in the di-
versification measure should be closely (inversely) related to changes in correlation, which
captures risk that is more systematic in nature. The relationship with average volatility is
less obvious ex ante due to the normalization of the CDB measures. Figure 10 indeed shows
10 See Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin (2001); Campbell and Taksler (2003); Cremers et al.
(2008); and Ericsson, Jacobs, and Oviedo (2009).
552 P. Christoffersen et al.
but we also present results for multivariate regressions where these dependence measures
are added to equity volatility, term structure variables, and leverage, which are the deter-
minants of credit risk according to the Merton (1974) model. Several studies have specific-
ally questioned the ability of regressors suggested by theory to explain time-series variation
in spreads (see Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin, 2001), so we focus on pooled time-
series regressions. We include lagged changes in spreads as regressors because of the persist-
ence in the spreads. The signs of the estimated coefficients do not change when lagged
spreads are not included (not reported).
11 The results in Table 5 are obtained using the modified Amihud (MA) illiqudity measure. We obtain
similar results (unreported) when using the illiquidity measure in Junge and Trolle (2015). We are
grateful to the authors for making their illiquidity measure available online.
Table V. Panel regressions for changes in log CDS spreads
We report regression coefficients and adjusted R2 from panel regressions. The left-hand side variable is the weekly change in log CDS spread for each firm.
Right-hand side variables include the firm’s leverage ratio, the weekly and 1-year trailing return on the S&P 500 index, the 3-month constant maturity US
Treasury rate, the difference between the 10-year and the 3-month constant maturity US Treasury rates, the TED spread, the firm-level equity NGARCH volatility
and illiquidity, the firm-level CDS NGARCH volatility and illiquidity, the average equity and CDS illiquidity, the average CDS correlation with all other firms, and
the average CDS tail dependence with all other firms. Illiquidity for equity is the Amihud price impact measure. Illiquidity for CDS the modified Amihud (MA)
measure. All regressors are lagged, and we also include the first lag of the regressand. We run panel regressions with firm fixed effects. Standard errors are
clustered by time and firm. Significance for regression coefficients at 5% and 1% are denoted by * and **, respectively. Estimates for the TED spread are multi-
plied by 100 for ease of exposition.
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x) (xi)
Diversification in Corporate Credit
Lagged log CDS change 0.051* 0.086** 0.086** 0.088** 0.088** 0.088** 0.051* 0.051* 0.052* 0.054* 0.053*
Leverage –0.006 –0.006 –0.008 0.004 –0.007 –0.008
S&P 500 return –0.328* –0.332* –0.347** –0.320* –0.330* –0.331*
S&P 500 1-year return 0.029 0.029 0.035* 0.028 0.027 0.019
Interest rate level 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.007 0.012*
Yield curve slope 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.011*
TED spread 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.011 0.005 0.005
Equity volatility 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.016** 0.009 0.010
Equity illiquidity –0.025 –0.019 –0.026 –0.025 –0.020 –0.023
Equity market illiquidity –1.983 –1.896 –4.558 –2.130 –2.286 –2.476
CDS illiquidity MA –0.696 –0.314
CDS market illiquidity MA –6.755 32.451
CDS volatility –0.004 –0.006*
CDS correlation 0.026 0.098*
CDS tail dependence 0.031 0.264**
Average Adjusted R2 (%) 1.826 0.647 0.655 0.813 0.709 0.693 1.818 1.938 1.965 2.071 2.207
553
We regress the weekly DAC median CDS correlation on the CDX North American investment grade index, the credit market modified Amihud illiquidity meas-
ure, the CBOE implied volatility index, the stock market aggregated Amihud illiquidity measure, the weekly return and the 1-year trailing return on the S&P 500,
the 3-month constant maturity US Treasury rate, the difference between the 10-year and the 3-month constant maturity US Treasury rates, the TED spread, the
West Texas Intermediate Cushing crude oil spot price, the Aruoba–Diebold–Scotti business conditions index, and the US breakeven inflation rate. All regressors
are lagged, and the first lag of the regressand is included in specification (x). We compute Newey–West standard errors, and significance for regression coeffi-
cients at 5% and 1% are denoted by * and **, respectively. All regression estimates are multiplied by 10 for ease of exposition, except for the first lag of the
regressand.
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x)
Intercept –0.43 4.02** 0.64* 3.99** 4.17** 4.25** 4.57** 3.79** –1.87** –0.26*
First lag 0.91**
CDX 1.06** 0.60** 0.05
CDS market illiquidity 1361.56** 258.82* 87.98*
VIX 1.20** 0.41** 0.10**
Equity market illiquidity 175.49** –13.16 –12.42**
S&P 500 return –1.11 1.46** –0.42
S&P 500 1-year return –1.43** 0.22 0.06
Interest rate level –0.22** –0.17** –0.02
Yield curve slope 0.20** –0.25** –0.03
TED spread –0.00 –0.00
Crude oil price 0.62** 0.04
Business conditions index 0.04 0.01
Breakeven inflation 0.14 0.02
Adjusted R2 0.73 0.19 0.57 0.20 –0.00 0.17 0.41 0.16 0.90 0.99
P. Christoffersen et al.
lagged one week and all results are obtained using OLS with Newey–West standard errors
using T 1=4 5 lags, where T is sample size.
Table VI shows that the univariate regressions all provide intuitively plausible results:
when times are bad and the economy experiences negative shocks, the CDX, the VIX, and
market illiquidity are high, stock returns and interest rates are low, and this poor economic
environment is associated with higher dependence and fewer diversification opportunities.
However, the R-squares indicate that stock market returns explain much less of the time-
series variation in copula correlations than the interest rate level and the VIX. Finally, the
5. Conclusion
This article documents cross-sectional dependence in CDS returns, and compares it with de-
pendence in equity returns. Our results are complementary to existing correlation and de-
pendence estimates, which are typically based on historical default rates or factor models of
equity returns, and to existing intensity-based studies, which characterize observable macro
variables that induce realistic correlation patterns in default probabilities (see Duffee, 1999;
Duffie, Saita, and Wang, 2007). We use econometric techniques that allow us to estimate a
model with multivariate asymmetries and time-varying dependence using a long time series
and a large cross-section of CDS spreads.
We document six important stylized facts. First, copula correlations in CDS returns vary
substantially over our sample and increase substantially following the financial crisis in
2007. Equity correlations also increase in the financial crisis, but somewhat later, and the
increase is less pronounced and not as persistent. Second, our estimates indicate fat tails in
the univariate distributions, but also multivariate non-normalities. Multivariate asymme-
tries seem to be less important for credit than they are for equities. Third, credit dependence
12 The impact of the CDX index on copula correlations is to some extent mechanical because (trans-
formations of) the individual credit spreads that constitute the index are used to update the copula
correlations in Equation (3.7).
556 P. Christoffersen et al.
is more persistent than equity dependence, and this greatly affects how major events such as
the subprime funds collapse, the Lehman bankruptcy, and the US sovereign debt down-
grade affect subsequent dependence in credit and equity markets. Fourth, tail dependence
increases more dramatically in our sample period than do copula correlations. Fifth, the
CDS dependence and tail dependence measures are related to the time-series variation in
credit spreads, even after accounting for other well-known firm-level determinants of
spreads. Sixth, VIX is an important driver of credit correlations over time.
These stylized facts, and the increase in cross-sectional dependence in particular, have
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Appendix
In this appendix, we describe the regressors used in the analyses in Sections 4.2 and 4.3. In
Table V, we use the following regressors:
• Leverage is defined as the ratio of long-term liabilities to the sum of long-term liabilities
and market value of equity.
• CDS and equity volatility are the log of the NGARCH volatilities each week.
• Equity illiquidity is the daily Amihud price impact measure, defined as the absolute daily
return divided by daily dollar volume, averaged over each week. Equity market illiquid-
ity is the median equity illiquidity across all firms for a given week.
• A CDS illiquidity measure modeled after the Amihud equity illiquidity measure. For the
CDS market, dollar volumes are not available and we follow Junge and Trolle (2015) by
dividing absolute daily return by the number of dealers that provided a quote for that
day and average over each week. The CDS market illiquidity measure is the median
across all firms. We denote this measure by “MA” for Modified Amihud.
• The CDS market illiquidity measure of Junge and Trolle (2015) based on the price discrep-
ancy between credit indexes and their CDS constituents (used in unreported results).
• The return on the S&P 500 captures the changes in stock market capitalization. We use
the 1-week return as well as a trailing 1-year return.
• The term structure is captured by a level variable, the 3-month US Constant Maturity
Treasury (CMT) index, and a slope variable, the 10-year CMT index minus the 3-month
CMT.
• The difference between the interest rate on interbank loans and on short-term govern-
ment debt, that is the TED spread.13
13 The TED spread is an indicator of liquidity in fixed-income markets. The funding liquidity variable
in Fontaine and Garcia (2012) provides an alternative liquidity indicator, but it is not available at
the weekly frequency.
560 P. Christoffersen et al.
S&P 500 returns and interest rates as macro variables to capture default dependence in
their own empirical implementation. Duan and Van Laere (2012) also use stock index re-
turns and interest rates, and Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin (2001) use S&P 500
returns, interest rates, and the VIX. Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi, (2008) use S&P 500
returns to normalize firm returns in their analysis of default and credit risk. Doshi et al.
(2013) use term structure variables and the VIX, and the latent variable model in Duffee
(1999) uses interest rate factors to capture the dependence in credit spreads.14
When selecting economic variables in Table VI, we limit ourselves to variables that are
• The S&P 500 return variables, term structure variables, TED spread, and CDS and
equity market illiquidity variables used in Table V.
• The log of the CDX North American investment grade index level is used to proxy for
the overall level of risk in credit markets.
• The log of the VIX index represents equity market risk.
• The log of crude oil price as measured by the West Texas Intermediate Cushing Crude
Oil Spot Price.
• The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) business condition index from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Philadelphia.
• The breakeven inflation level implied by Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Unlike
standard inflation measures, this series is available at the weekly frequency.
14 See Blume and Keim (1991); Fons (1991); Helwege and Kleiman (1997); Hillegeist et al. (2004);
Jonsson and Fridson (1996); Keenan, Sobehart, and Hamilton (1999); McDonald and Van de Gucht
(1999); and Pesaran et al. (2006) for examples of other macroeconomic variables that are useful
for explaining and forecasting credit spreads and default. See Pospisil, Patel, and Levy (2012) for
a list of macroeconomic variables used by Moody’s Analytics for dependence modeling.