Kenyan GNI, population prediction

Population (1000 people)

Graph 3 : Estimation of future GNI/Capita in Kenya (C)
(World Bank)

LPG demand is expected to reach 800,000 tons in 2030, which is four-fold the
current demand level of 200,000 tons. LPG consumption per population at this point
is 11 kg/ person, which is less than in developing countries in Asia. These figures
appear to be highly achievable.

LPG demand prediction

LPG consumption amount (person)
LPG demand (ton)

14% increase case

GNI/Capita LPG consumption/

Analysis Capita

Graph 4 : LPG demand prediction in Kenya (D)

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 (Demand in neighboring countries)
LPG demand is also rising in neighboring Tanzania. In this country, the
non-governmental enterprises proceed with the business as a major player, and it is
said that each enterprise is working to reinforce LPG storage facilities (by a hearing
conducted by our company). This appears to relate to an aspect of the enough land
at the port compared with Mombasa. However, like in Kenya, the mass transport of
LPG using refrigeration equipment will be necessary in the future in this country in
order to reduce costs.
As for the land transportation to Uganda, a landlocked country, our hearing
indicated that Tanzania is advantageous for transportation by truck. However, rail
transportation is achieved in Kenya in the future, it may lose out to Kenya in terms of
competitiveness.

4. Project Summary (Basic Design & Business Model Development)

(1) Project site selection
(Port of Mombasa and its surroundings)
As mentioned earlier, Kenya's LPG sales volume in 2017 was at 192,502 tons (PIEA
2018, Petroleum Insight 1st Quarter). When illegal volume is included, the volume is
estimated to be at 240,000 tons. LPG demand in Kenya is expected to grow steadily in
the future and is projected to reach 1,000,000 tons by the mid-2030s.
AGOL plans to increase the capacity for in-ground tanks. However, if annual tank
turnover is assumed to take place 10 times*, this capacity will only be able to respond to
approximately half of the actual demand. (estimated at 1-2 weeks compared to one day
for a world-class refrigerated storage tank, thus resulting in the projection that tank
turnover will be restricted to 10 times.)
Furthermore, the storage tank owned by KPC/KPRL has very limited capacity. Even
when the storage facility of a major vendor is included, the total reaches only thousands
tons. Although a plan to build a new jetty appears to have been developed alongside
replacement of the old KOT, its schedule and concrete details remain unclear.
In view of the circumstances, it can be determined that the need for a new LPG
import terminal remains high.

Land that could be used for storage tank construction while making use of the
existing jetty was examined with satellite photos and on-site study of Mombasa.
However, there is a shortage of available land in Port of Mombasa area. With the
residential and developed areas found in close proximity to SOT, suitable land was

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