A.

1.

Forecastin
g Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

year 1 4          

year 2 6          

year 3 4          

year 4 5 4.666667 0.333333 0.333333 0.111111 06.67%

year 5 10 5 5 5 25 50.00%

year 6 8 6.333333 1.666667 1.666667 2.777778 20.83%

year 7 7 7.666667 -0.66667 0.666667 0.444444 09.52%

year 8 9 8.333333 0.666667 0.666667 0.444444 07.41%

year 9 12 8 4 4 16 33.33%

year 10 14 9.333333 4.666667 4.666667 21.77778 33.33%

year 11 15 11.66667 3.333333 3.333333 11.11111 22.22%

 Total 19 20.33333 77.66667 183.32%

Average 2.375 2.541667 9.708333 22.92%

  Bias MAD MSE MAPE

    SE 3.597839  

13.666666
Next period 7

2.

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter the data in the shaded area. Enter weights in
INCREASING order from top to bottom.

Forecasts and Error

Data Analysis
Weight Forecas Erro Absolut Abs Pct
Period Demand s t r e Squared Err

year 1 4 1 3 periods ago          

year 2 6 1 2 periods ago          

year 3 4 2 1 periods ago          

year 4 5   4.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 10.00%

year 5 10   5 5 5 25 50.00%

year 6 8   7.25 0.75 0.75 0.5625 09.38%

-
year 7 7   7.75 0.75 0.75 0.5625 10.71%

year 8 9   8 1 1 1 11.11%
 year 9 12   8.25 3.75 3.75 14.0625 31.25%

year 10 14   10 4 4 16 28.57%

year 11 15   12.25 2.75 2.75 7.5625 18.33%

Total 17 18.5 65 169.36%

2.12
Average 5 2.3125 8.125 21.17%

  Bias MAD MSE MAPE

    SE 3.291403  

Next period 14

Forecasting

3.

year demand
1 4
2 6
3 4
4 5
5 10
6 8
7 7
8 9
9 12
10 14
11 15

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
 Multiple R 0.906914
R Square 0.822494
Adjusted R
Square 0.802771
Standard
Error 1.712698
Observation
s 11

ANOVA
Significan
  df SS MS F ce F
122.327 41.7024
Regression 1 122.3273 3 8 0.000117
2.93333
Residual 9 26.4 3
Total 10 148.7273      

Coefficien Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper

  ts Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
2.00278 4.72363 - 4.72363
Intercept 2.218182 1.10755 3 0.07621 -0.28727 4 0.28727 4
6.45774 0.00011 1.42395 0.68513 1.42395
year 1.054545 0.163299 6 7 0.685137 4 7 4

Trend line : Y= b0+b1X

2.218+ 1.054 (14.16)

= 17.078

4.
B.

1.

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.3
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
 Abs Pct
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Err
week 1 17 17 0 0 0 00.00%
week 2 21 17 4 4 16 19.05%
week 3 19 18.2 0.8 0.8 0.64 04.21%
week 4 23 18.44 4.56 4.56 20.7936 19.83%
week 5 18 19.808 -1.808 1.808 3.268864 10.04%
week 6 16 19.2656 -3.2656 3.2656 10.66414 20.41%
week 7 20 18.28592 1.71408 1.71408 2.93807 08.57%
week 8 18 18.80014 -0.80014 0.800144 0.64023 04.45%
week 9 22 18.5601 3.439899 3.439899 11.83291 15.64%
week 10 20 19.59207 0.407929 0.407929 0.166406 02.04%
week 11 15 19.71445 -4.71445 4.714449 22.22603 31.43%
0.168176
week 12 22 18.30011 3.699885 3.699885 13.68915 6
Total 8.033601 29.20999 102.8594 152.48%
Average 0.669467 2.434166 8.571617 12.71%
  Bias MAD MSE MAPE
    SE 3.20717  
19.410080
Next period 2

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

 Alpha 0.3

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Abs Pct
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Err

week 1 17 13 4 4 16 23.53%

week 2 21 14.2 6.8 6.8 46.24 32.38%

week 3 19 16.24 2.76 2.76 7.6176 14.53%

week 4 23 17.068 5.932 5.932 35.18862 25.79%

week 5 18 18.8476 -0.8476 0.8476 0.718426 04.71%

week 6 16 18.59332 -2.59332 2.59332 6.725309 16.21%

week 7 20 17.81532 2.184676 2.184676 4.772809 10.92%

week 8 18 18.47073 -0.47073 0.470727 0.221584 02.62%

week 9 22 18.32951 3.670491 3.670491 13.47251 16.68%

week 10 20 19.43066 0.569344 0.569344 0.324152 02.85%

week 11 15 19.60146 -4.60146 4.601459 21.17343 30.68%

0.171771
week 12 22 18.22102 3.778978 3.778978 14.28068 7

Total 21.18238 38.2086 166.7351 198.07%

Average 1.765199 3.18405 13.89459 16.51%

  Bias MAD MSE MAPE

    SE 4.083321  
19.354715
Next period 1

2. MAD = 3.184
3.

C.

D.

Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.3
Beta 0.7

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecas
Smoothe t
d Smoothe Includin
Forecast, d Trend, g Trend, Absolut Abs Pct
year Demand Ft Tt FITt Error e Squared Err
1991 2,634 2634   2634 0 0 0 00.00%
1992 3,169 2634 0 2634 535 535 286225 16.88%
155354.
1993 3,301 2794.5 112.35 2906.85 394.15 394.15 2 11.94%
3220.21 533.783 533.783 284924.
1994 3,754 3025.095 195.1215 7 5 5 8 14.22%
3687.56 146.432 146.432 21442.4
1995 3,834 3380.352 307.216 8 4 4 5 03.82%
4069.46 1047.53 1047.53
1996 5,117 3731.497 337.9668 4 6 6 1097331 20.47%
4941.67 1506.32 1506.32
1997 6,448 4383.725 557.9494 4 6 6 2269017 23.36%

1998 7,908 5393.572 874.2778 6267.85 1640.15 1640.15 2690093 20.74%

7978.60 1234.39 1234.39
1999 9,213 6759.895 1218.709 4 6 6 1523733 13.40%
9826.85 1675.14 1675.14
2000 11,502 8348.923 1477.932 5 5 5 2806110 14.56%
 12159.1 - 1368.11
2001 10,791 10329.4 1829.713 1 1368.11 2 1871729 12.68%
13291.0 - 3269.08 1068693
2002 10,022 11748.68 1542.409 9 3269.09 7 3 32.62%
13166.2 - 4824.26 2327350
2003 8,342 12310.36 855.901 6 4824.26 2 6 57.83%
11561.7 -
2004 10,453 11718.98 -157.194 9 1108.79 1108.79 1229414 10.61%
10839.1 - 55.1128 3037.42
2005 10,784 11229.15 -390.04 1 55.1128 1 2 00.51%
10420.9 297.034 297.034 88229.5
2006 10,718 10822.58 -401.614 7 6 6 4 02.77%
10170.8
2007 12,460 10510.08 -339.236 4 2289.16 2289.16 5240256 18.37%
10999.0 2262.92 2262.92
2008 13,262 10857.59 141.4874 8 5 5 5120829 17.06%
12294.6 - 3522.65 1240909
2009 8,772 11677.95 616.7017 5 3522.65 4 3 40.16%
- 683.802 467585. 0.06555
2010 10,431 11237.86 -123.056 11114.8 683.802 2 5 5
Next 10643.0
period   10909.66 -266.654 1        
- 28393.8 7152484
Total     1269.78 6 3 338.56%
- 1419.69
Average     63.4891 3 3576242 16.93%
      Bias MAD MSE MAPE
        SE 1993.39  
DJIA VALUE FOR 2011 : 10643.01