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Trade with Iran

FOR numerous reasons, mostly geopolitical, Pakistan’s volume of trade with its
neighbours — with the exception of China — is very low. Trade ties with Iran have
been particularly lukewarm, mostly due to the fear of attracting American and Saudi
wrath. However, small steps are being taken to enhance the commercial
relationship with Iran. Amongst these is the opening of the Mand-Pishin ‘border
sustenance market’. The market, one of six such initiatives on the border of
Balochistan and the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan, was inaugurated by
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Thursday to
facilitate trade between the two countries. A 100MW transmission line that will
bring electricity from Iran was also inaugurated. It is hoped these steps are followed
up with more concrete efforts to deepen trade relations. The border markets will
hopefully help promote much-needed economic activity in Balochistan, and should
help formalise border trade. As it is Pakistani cities, particularly Karachi, Islamabad
and Rawalpindi, are flooded with smuggled Iranian products. Formalising trade will
help bring in tax revenue, while also opening up the Iranian market to Pakistani
products.

Along with promoting trade ties, officials on both sides need to resolve the controversy over the
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. While the Iranians have constructed the pipeline on their end,
Pakistan has yet to build its part. As a result, Iran may take Pakistan to court, with this country
facing a $18bn penalty for failing to complete the project. The matter was discussed in the Public
Accounts Committee on Wednesday, with the PAC chairman remarking that “the US should pay
the penalty” if it stops Pakistan from completing the pipeline, pointing to the widely held belief
that the fear of offending Washington is preventing Pakistan from honouring its commitment.

Pakistan can ill afford to pay such a massive penalty. Reneging on the deal will reflect badly on our
shaky international standing, and damage ties with Tehran. The state should make it a priority to
address the pipeline issue, and assure Iran that it intends to honour the deal. If the price of gas is
right, it would be a win-win situation for all, as Pakistan needs affordable hydrocarbons. The
Saudis should have no concerns, as they themselves are mending fences with Iran, while our
friends in Washington must be told that Pakistan has to honour the pipeline deal. If the US can
look the other way when India and others buy oil from sanctioned Russia, it should have no issues
if Pakistan buys gas from Iran, and enhances trade relations with it. Eurasian integration is the

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new buzzword, and if Pakistan fails to hop on the bandwagon of regional trade for fear of
offending powerful actors, it will have only itself to blame.

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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Money talks

THE ‘one-percenters’ have reportedly stepped in to attempt to resolve the

continuing impasse in the corridors of power. A fresh attempt is being made to
jump-start negotiations between key stakeholders, this time led by some of the
country’s most influential industrialists and tycoons.

The latter seem to be deeply concerned, and understandably so — there are significant
investments at stake. With the economy imploding due to the government’s indecision and
mismanagement, unceasing political instability, and seemingly untameable stagflation, the
majority of business owners are having to reckon with severe to very severe threats to their
profitability.

In many cases, even the continuity of entire enterprises is at stake. Against this backdrop, several
influential representatives of the business community have been tasked with reaching out to
various political stakeholders, seemingly to cajole them towards breaking the political deadlock.

It is unclear, however, what they may be able to offer the various stakeholders apart from some
good sense, which, it must be said, has lately been in short supply. With each player in the game
fighting for survival, none of the parties seems to have had the time to think about what is really in
the national interest.

The PDM government’s failure to talk straight to the IMF and secure a desperately needed bailout
package has made Pakistan’s polycrisis significantly worse. It would have been a very different
picture had corrective measures to right the listing economy been taken in time.

An IMF programme revival now seems near impossible and the country faces an almost inevitable
default. Pakistan has only managed to survive so far by massively curtailing imports, thereby
choking a vast segment of the economy and significantly throttling growth.

A formal default could unleash further catastrophe. Therefore, while the effort to get political
parties and the establishment back to the table is commendable, it is unlikely to yield fruit till each
of them realises that what they are fighting over could quickly prove to be a poisoned prize.

None of the current players has the expertise to rule a broken economy, nor can they afford the
political cost of doing so. The government, military and PTI leaderships have diverted too much of
their mental faculties to fighting each other, letting the economic time bomb tick closer and closer
to zero. It is time they snapped back to reality and defused it.

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Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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Electricity concerns

A TOP power ministry official has cautioned that power supply to the residents of
Karachi may face disruption if the government does not immediately pay
outstanding tariff differential subsidy dues to K-Electric. That is quite disturbing.
He informed the Public Accounts Committee during a briefing on Wednesday that
KE consumers get Rs10-20 per unit in subsidy, which the government pays to the
distribution company on behalf of its customers to keep their bills light. These are
legitimate costs that distribution companies should be paid without delay in order to
enable them to recover the full price of the electricity units they sell. KE’s nine-
month report for July-March says that the increase in fuel prices and non-provision
of local gas supply to it have resulted in a substantial jump in its TDS claim
receivables from the government. The company’s net receivables from different
government entities stand at Rs23.9bn on principal due basis after settling payables
and receivables, a substantial portion of the latter being TDS.

The growing backlog of receivables means it will continue to have a significant impact on KE’s
cash flow position, and affect its ability to increase the pace of investment in the power
infrastructure as its net loss for the first nine months of the present fiscal year to March went up
to Rs39.4bn. This compares with a profit of Rs1.5bn for the same period a year ago. The
company’s losses don’t have anything to do with its receivables. That said, the timely release of
subsidies is imperative for it to sustain its investments in infrastructure and to maintain fuel
inventory and production. A committee set up by the government is trying to sort out the issue of
receivables and, it is hoped, that a solution will be found by the end of next month. But the
government is not justified in further delaying or stalling the outstanding TDS payments to KE
where there is no dispute.

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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Champion of people’s health

The writer is a former SAPM on health, professor of health systems at Shifa Tameer-i-Millat University and WHO

DR Zafrullah Chowdhury passed away in Dhaka on April 11, 2023, after an inspiring
life. He dedicated himself to the healthcare and development of the poor and
voiceless, becoming their carer and voice.

He was born near Chittagong in 1941. As a six-year-old, he saw Partition and as a young man he
witnessed major political upheavals: East Bengal was separated from West Pakistan in 1971 after a
bloody war that led to the birth of Bangladesh. These political developments turned Dr
Chowdhury into a committed nationalist. He took active part in student politics, completed his
graduation in medicine and then left for the United Kingdom for post-graduation in surgery. He
was there when the war broke out between the two wings of Pakistan. He rushed back to Dhaka,
leaving his training halfway to help with the war and take care of those fighting for freedom.

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He set up a hospital to take care of injured fighters and refugees. This busy hospital soon turned
into a 480-bed field hospital. This was the beginning of Zafrullah Chowdhury’s lifelong crusade
for poor people’s healthcare. After the war, the hospital was relocated to the rural outskirts of
Dhaka where it soon became Gonoshasthaya Kendra, commonly known as GK (People’s Health
Centre).

He realised that the healthcare needs of the people were too many and there were not enough
doctors. He initiated short trainings of volunteers, mainly women, who started providing
healthcare to the people. Trained paramedics became the main workforce for delivering
preventive, promotive, curative and rehabilitative health services. This work continued to expand.

Zafrullah Chowdhury’s lifelong crusade focused on poor

people’s health.

Zafrullah was active at the local as well as global level. GK’s work and perspective contributed to
the International Conference on Primary Health Care in 1978, which resulted in the famous
Declaration of Alma-Ata. He contributed to all major global milestones on PHC, health-for-all and
universal healthcare agendas since 1978 and was very critical of ‘selective primary healthcare’.

On the 40th anniversary of the Declaration of Alma-Ata, WHO and Unicef convened another
global conference on PHC, in the context of the third Sustainable Development Goal which calls
for efforts to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. The conference’s
outcome was the Declaration of Astana, which puts special emphasis on three components of
PHC: empowering people and communities; multisectoral policy and action; and primary care
and essential public health functions as the core of integrated health services.

Empowering people and communities for their health and development was the foundation of
Zafrullah’s philosophy. He especially championed women’s empowerment and emphasised
women’s mobility. Drivers of rickshaws, cars and trucks in GK are women. Women ride bikes to
work. He managed this successfully in a conservative society. He employed a multisectoral
approach and addressed other development needs of the people. GK is involved in water and
sanitation, agriculture, nutrition, education, employment generation, the manufacture of
medicines — the list goes on and on. Public health emergencies are frequent in Bangladesh due to
regular floods. GK is always at the forefront of relief efforts. It is now a leading health carer for
hapless Rohingya refugees.

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In 2000, Zafrullah worked hard to host the first People’s Health Assembly in Bangladesh. He
received around 1,000 delegates from across the world at the GK campus. It was a great success.
Despite the bitterness between Bangladesh and Pakistan, Zafrullah Chowdhury personally
welcomed many of us from Pakistan and took special care of us. This was the most inspiring
public health gathering I have attended in my professional life. Halfdan Mahler, who was the
director general of WHO in 1978 and the main figure behind the historical International
Conference on PHC in Alma-Ata, also attended the PHA and made an inspiring speech. The
assembly triggered the Peoples’ Health Movement across the globe.

Zafrullah Chowdhury will be remembered for his revolutionary work on essential medicines. In
1982, as an adviser to the then president of Bangladesh, he introduced the famous National Drug
Policy based on the essential medicines concept. In one go, 1,600 non-essential medicines were
delisted and a list of only 150 essential medicines was adopted for the country. Big pharma was
extremely upset and threatened to pull out from Bangladesh. In view of this situation, Zafrullah
quickly set up an Essential Medicines Company which started manufacturing essential medicines.
Later, he wrote a book reminiscing about these dramatic events. The book titled The Politics of
Essential Drugs — The Making of a Successful Health Strategy: Lessons from Bangladesh is a
must-read.

He survived a serious episode of Covid-19 and was suffering from kidney disease and had to have
regular dialysis. At 81, in his frail physical condition he continued to work hard on his projects.
Due to his unrelenting lifelong work, GK today is a conglomerate of various small and large
health-related organisations, including the country’s largest haemodialysis centre which serves
300 patients every day, one of whom was Zafrullah himself.

For his inspiring work he received many honours and awards including Bangladesh’s highest civil
award; the Ramon Magsaysay Award from the Philippines; the Right Livelihood Award from
Sweden; the International Health Hero Award from the University of Berkeley in the US, and the
Ahmed Sharif Memorial Award of Bangladesh.

Zafrullah was soft-spoken but a hard hitter of injustice in any form. He chose to adopt a very
ordinary lifestyle and inspired a generation of health workers, turning them into passionate health
activists. Through them, his legacy will live on for times to come.

The writer is a former SAPM on health, professor of health systems at Shifa Tameer-i-Millat
University and WHO adviser on UHC.

zedefar@gmail.com

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Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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India & Kashmir: two views

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

OLD ‘principled’ view: India is priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy. It is the
principal adversary and only country with which we have gone to war. It has brutally
repressed the people of Kashmir and illegally annexed the disputed territory of IHK,
thereby terminating comprehensive structured dialogue with Pakistan.

India calls the Kashmiri freedom struggle ‘terrorism’ although armed struggle is an inalienable
right of people under forcible occupation. Musharraf’s four-point proposal had promised a
principled compromise settlement.

Pakistan’s irresponsible and unforgivably corrupt governance, and the opportunism of the
international community allow India to escape censure. While the international human rights

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community condemns India’s crimes in Kashmir, the big powers prioritise state interests over law
and morality. Pakistan’s pathetic image, moreover, negates the cogency of its arguments.

Pakistan is a party to the Kashmir dispute. It regards the Kashmir Valley as its ‘jugular vein’ as its
people would have opted to join Pakistan were they able to exercise their right to self-
determination.

Is the ‘old principled’ or the ‘new pragmatic’ view more

realistic?

Subsequently, the Kargil conflict, instigated by the usual suspects after Vajpayee’s historic visit to
Lahore, compelled a nonplussed Nawaz Sharif to rush to the US to beg for the safe withdrawal of
Pakistan’s forces from an impossible situation. This transformed the LoC into a de facto border.
Pakistan paid a huge price in blood, treasure, diplomatic isolation, and the perception of a failing
state.

More recently, Pakistan downgraded relations with India after it annexed IHK on Aug 5, 2019,
unilaterally changing its status in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and the Shimla
Agreement. This rendered the LoC moot as it issued from the agreement.

By claiming to have resolved the Kashmir dispute forever, India destroyed the basis for dialogue
with Pakistan. This was a demand for a Pakistan surrender even more ignominious than in Dhaka
in 1971. India, moreover, arrested the entire Muslim leadership of the Valley and intensified its
repression to the extent that Genocide Watch issued two ‘genocide alerts’.

While a misgoverned and isolated Pakistan was no longer able to counter India’s unilateralism
and repression there was never any reason to meekly accept its fait accompli. The right to self-
determination is not a gift from Pakistan to Kashmir. It is the inalienable right of the Kashmiri
people.

UN resolutions affirm the disputed status of Kashmir, and Pakistan as a party to the dispute.
Accordingly, it has an absolute obligation to uphold and support the rights of the Kashmiri people
in every legitimate way.

Despite its rhetorical declarations of support, Pakistan has, in fact, de-prioritised support for the
Kashmiri freedom struggle. As a result, the Kashmiri people on both sides of the LoC today

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probably prefer independence to a failing Pakistan. Kashmiri independence, however, is opposed

by both India and Pakistan.

It was, however, dangled before the Kashmiris by a former Pakistan prime minister. That risked
complicating relations with China, which is Pakistan’s most effective counter to India.

Can forsaking principled positions stem the tide of failure engulfing Pakistan? Can acting as a
defeated state stabilise Pakistan? Can such a Pakistan elicit or manage $17 billion for a ‘Living
Indus Initiative’?

Given that confrontation and conflict with India are no longer options, is unprincipled surrender
the only alternative? Has Modi shown any inclination to consider resolving the respective ‘core
issues’ of Kashmir and ‘terrorism’ through dialogue and compromise, which could usher in a
mutually beneficial relationship?

Overcoming existential challenges that threaten Pakistan requires people’s movements and
nation-building, not the betrayal of principled commitments. Do Pakistan’s ruling elites have the
character, foresight, or common decency to provide minimally responsible leadership? Our
present situation provides a very clear answer.

India’s contempt for Pakistan and its refusal to concede anything will not be mitigated by fawning
submission. However, should we recover from our moribund condition — and this will require
deliverance from the political and power elites — we may explore possibilities for improved
relations with a currently pathologically anti-Pakistan India.

New ‘pragmatic’ view: UN resolutions on Kashmir are history. The world does not support
Pakistan. Nor does it condemn India with regard to these resolutions. The Kashmiris know
Pakistan is helpless and cannot afford conflict with India or alter the territorial status quo in
Kashmir.

The best they can hope for is a recovered and renewed Pakistan able and willing to resuscitate the
dormant four-point proposal. This would require a fundamentally improved India-Pakistan
relationship so that win-win approaches become feasible.

The quicker Pakistan reconciles itself to prevailing realities, however unjust, the quicker the
sufferings of the people of IHK can be alleviated. Accordingly, Kashmiris want Pakistan to restore
normal relations and fully engage with India so that it can bat on their behalf.

Moreover, the potential benefits of bilateral trade, investment, touri­sm, cultural and media
exchanges etc, can help accelerate growth, and reduce inflation and poverty, mutual ignorance,

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mistrust and hostile narratives.

Powerful quarters in both countries, however, have entrenched interests in mutual hostility. While
India may lose valuable opportunities, Pakistan co­­uld pay an existential price because of its
parlous condition. We need not fear Chinese misgivings as they have no interest in India-Pakistan
hostility.

Conclusion: Is the ‘old principled’ or the ‘new pragmatic’ view more realistic? Are they mutually
exclusive? Can a combination of them comprise a feasible longer-term strategy? Discussions
should ensue on this and other national survival issues.

Meanwhile, a government-led parliamentary assault on the judiciary! Rs300 going on to 500 to

the dollar! Can’t have an agreed census! Digital revolution and an on-off internet! ‘Leaders’
thousands of times richer than their votebanks sinking below the poverty line! Constitutionally
superior bodies subordinate to a constitutionally subordinate body! The Army Act versus the Rule
of Law! US ‘non-interference’ on daily display!

We have become a global joke.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq
and Sudan.

ashrafjqazi@gmail.com

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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In a moral panic

THE Human Rights Commission of Pakistan is the conscience of the nation. If a

human rights transgression occurs, the HRCP reacts promptly. Every year, it
publishes a report on the human rights situation in Pakistan, pointing out to both
the authorities and the people where they are failing. It has been doing this for 35
years.

The following passage in the HRCP rep­ort for 2022 issued recently should be cause for alarm:
“The HRCP was particularly concerned about the threatened reversal of transgender rights during
the year. The progressive federal act of 2018, which was a result of a year-long consultative
process, was made unduly controversial in and outside the courts and legislature.”

As a result of the atmosphere created by self-appointed leaders of religious opinion, 19

transgender persons were murdered and hundreds faced violence. The Transgender Persons

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(Protection of Rights) Act, 2018, which had enabled Nadra to register transpersons, has been
stalled due to controversy.

This law had been welcomed as the most enlightened piece of legislation in the country by saner
sections of society, as well as by Amnesty International. Pakistan is on the list of countries that
have recognised transgender persons as having a separate identity. What we are witnessing today
is a backlash.

The Transgender Act needs to be strengthened, not

undermined.

“It has taken them four years to realise that there was something wrong with the law,” she
remarked sarcastically. “And in our society you know how you can bring people together in the
name of religion,” she added.

It may be pointed out that the 2018 law was a carefully considered piece of legislation. The
Council of Islamic Ideology endorsed it in order to uphold the dignity of transpersons. Now there
appears to have been a change of heart in some quarters. The objections raised are nebulous and
show no respect for the dignity of transgender persons. Three or four bills have been put forward
as alternatives to the ‘objectionable’ Act. Nearly 14 petitions have been filed in the Federal Shariat
Court which has neither rejected nor upheld them.

The major objection being raised is about the transpersons’ right to self-perceived sexual identity.
The critics shamelessly demand that all transpersons have a medical examination by a screening
board to establish their gender, whereas the Act accepts the idea of self-perceived expression of
gender identity.

One might ask if the same applies to the binary-gendered. Much of the debate has focused on
frivolous issues as the use of the words ‘sex’ and ‘transgender’ are considered taboo. I wonder if
such prudery is really sanctioned by our brand of morality while sexual abuse and rape seem to be
quite acceptable.

The fact is that the Act needs to be strengthened to do away with the social exclusion of
transpersons. Some amendments to the law are needed to correct the anomalies in the inheritance
law if transgender persons are to be given justice. Another provision that should be inserted in the

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Act is to make parents liable to be punished if they aband­­on a tra­ns­ge­nd

­ er child be­­fore s/he is 18
years.

It is equally important that all provisions in the Act for the protection of the transgender persons’
rights are actually implemented. Hardly any hospital or prison has wards or cells for transpersons.
No shelter homes have been set up for them as required by the law. They are discriminated against
in education, healthcare, public places and also in hiring. They are the most marginalised
community in Pakistan and the most vulnerable to sexual violence and indignities of the worst
kind.

The redeeming factor is the empowerment of a growing number of transpersons, who are now
acquiring an education and struggling for their rights. They have entered all professions and have
won recognition in many sectors of society. The HRCP report’s thematic section on transgender
persons’ right has been written by a transgender woman, Mehtab Jameel, a lawyer. Without
doubt, it is an excellent piece of writing.

It is strange that the self-proclaimed guardians of religion should feel so threatened by the
Transgender Act that they deem it as something that will “undermine the foundations of the
Islamic Republic of Pakistan causing moral panic”.

www.zubeida-mustafa.com

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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Just imagine it

The writer, a public health and policy consultant, is the author of Patient Pakistan: Reforming and Fixing Healthc

REIMAGINING Pakistan has been a work in progress since the very beginning.
Projects, seminars and books on the theme have proliferated, especially over the
last decade. Similarly, today we see ‘reimagining’ initiatives — in response to the
political, economic and social dead end we are at.

Despite promises of change, things have remained the same. In fact, they have deteriorated,
bringing back memories of the mudslinging 1990s. This contrasts with earlier times, when the
phrase ‘at a crossroads’ was often invoked to highlight the need for urgent change. But we have left
behind even this optimism, where one at least could choose between two paths.

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One remembers how Benazir Bhutto, in her last years, floated the idea of forging a new social
contract between the rulers, the ruled and the state managers. But it failed to gain much traction
beyond media debates and articles. Husain Haqqani’s book Reimagining Pakistan exposes the ills
plaguing the country and suggests a slew of reformative actions going forward.

Many would argue that Pakistan has always been an insufficiently imagined country. Delusions of
being too important to be ignored by international rescuers have put off this important
conversation. The securitised nature of politics and governance, too, have contributed to the
deadening of collective and individual thought.

Despite promises of change, things remain the same.

Take the latest reimagining project that has burst forth with an impressive line of sponsors. The
list of issues identified by the leading lights of this reimagining project is a product of their
experience in the governance and political domain. The leading lights, it must be pointed out, are
system insiders who have become whistle-blowers exposing the rottenness of the existing system
and its inability to solve Pakistan’s pressing and long-term problems.

Three challenges in particular have been identified by them: governance, economic and centre-
state ties. However, when viewed up close, it is a narration of already identified problems — there
has been no big imaginative leap to take us out of the current mess. Neither has media
commentary or articles on the subject presented a stirring vision for the future.

To give substance to the reimagining project, someone has to step forward with ideas that can
excite the new generation, which at present, only has the simplified, personalised and apolitical
narrative of the PTI before it. This effort would have to involve a lot of organising and active
encouragement of the younger generation to reimagine the national conversation.

It demands participation from various sections of the population who can offer perspectives and
solutions on the basis of their own lived experience.

Though seminars are being organised at university campuses, we have not yet heard much about
the revival of student unions — except in Sindh — which are central to any reimagining project.

Similarly, input from trade unions and other associations is absent. These associations are vital to
the exercise if the pattern of dynastic politics is to be transformed so that rule-based, democratic
parties can emerge. The need to reorganise politics bottom up, and with wide consensus, has

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never been so urgent. The project will ultimately be assessed on its systematising and mobilising
strength that results in actions instead of policy sound bites.

Meanwhile, there is much speculation that the Reimagining Pakistan protagonists might want to
launch a party of their own. But, the project should not go down that road, for the simple reason
that politics is already fragmented and any new party, somehow or the other, tends to fall victim to
the establishment’s policy of divide and rule. It takes decades for a party to take root.

The wiser course would be to catalyse thinking and mobilise support for new ideas at the
grassroots level. As Marx famously said “The philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the
world. The point, however, is to change it.” Such a change can only be the result of patient work
with all sections of society. Dedicated grassroots outreach to trade unions, bar associations and
doctors’ and students’ unions can bolster the reimagining project. The local group, in turn, can
stimulate new ways of nudging and strengthening the existing parties that have matured over the
years despite their deficiencies and the constrained and controlled space they have been operating
in.

The writer, a public health and policy consultant, is the author of Patient Pakistan: Reforming
and Fixing Healthcare for 21 Century.

drarifazad@gmail.com

Twitter: arifazad5

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2023

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