Why South Korea Is Debating A Nuclear Weapons Program: Cooperation

2/10/23, 3:55 PM Why South Korea is debating a nuclear weapons program - CSMonitor.
com
Beyond fear, beyond anger. Real news, real hope.
Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (center) attends a ceremony of donating a 600mm super-large multiple launch
rocket system at a garden of the Workers' Party of Korea headquarters in Pyongyang, North Korea, Dec. 31, 2022.
Some consider it necessary for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal as North Korea ramps up its nuclear
capabilities.
COOPERATION
Why South Korea is debating a nuclear

weapons program
By Ann Scott Tyson, Staff writer
January 31, 2023
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2023/0131/Why-South-Korea-is-debating-a-nuclear-weapons-program 1/9
2/10/23, 3:55 PM Why South Korea is debating a nuclear weapons program - CSMonitor.com
Political momentum is growing in South Korea for acquiring nuclear weapons – a

fringe idea only a few years ago – amid frustration over North Korea’s aggressive
ramping up of its nuclear arms and missile capabilities.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned earlier this month that his country
might go nuclear if security keeps deteriorating on the Korean Peninsula. Although
he later walked back the comments, Mr. Yoon’s willingness to raise the nuclear
option publicly reflects its popularity among South Koreans, 71% of whom favor
their country developing its own nuclear arsenal, according to a poll last year.
“The South Koreans are very concerned about deterring a whole range of North
Korean activities,” says Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy
Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The perception is
that the only way to deter … is having nuclear weapons of your own.”
WHY WE WROTE THIS

COOPERATION
Growing threats from North Korea have some in South Korea calling
for a nuclear weapons program. Experts say what’s needed is a
strengthening of trust and a commitment to cooperation under the
U.S. nuclear umbrella.
The debate over nuclear weapons reveals a deepening sense of insecurity in South
Korea stemming not only from North Korean provocations but also from China’s
increasing nuclear arsenal and Russia’s nuclear saber rattling. And, experts say, it
has serious implications not only for South Korea and security in Northeast Asia,
but also for the global nonproliferation regime.
“It’s a rare and remarkable moment any time a U.S. ally moots acquisition of
nuclear weapons,” says Mr. Panda. “It sets off alarm bells in Washington.”
Nevertheless, both Seoul and Washington have reiterated that they are working
together to solidify their alliance and strengthen their deterrence against North
Korea – a priority of both the Yoon and Biden administrations.
South Korea Presidential Office/Yonhap/AP
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (right) shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin
during a meeting in Seoul, South Korea, on Jan. 31, 2023. Mr. Austin on Tuesday said the United States will
strengthen joint training and operational planning with South Korea in response to a growing North Korean
nuclear threat.
On Tuesday in Seoul, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and South Korean
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup held talks and pledged to bolster planning and
expand joint exercises to deter North Korea. In February, the two sides will hold a
tabletop exercise to facilitate “response options to deal with the DPRK [North
Korean] nuclear threat,” they said in a joint statement.
“Right now we have the United States that provides us with a nuclear deterrent,”
says retired Lt. Gen. In-Bum Chun, former commander of the Republic of Korea
Special Warfare Command. “But we are more concerned than we used to be,” he
says. “Korean people are looking for answers.”
New security environment

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this month directed his country to mass-
produce nuclear weapons, while heralding a new law that allows Pyongyang to
launch preemptive nuclear strikes. He also called for North Korea to develop a
more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile, following the testing of more than
90 ballistic and cruise missiles last year. And experts say North Korea may be
preparing for a seventh nuclear test – the first since 2017.
“Given all of the advancements that North Korea has made in their nuclear
weapons program, and changes in the geopolitical environment, there’s been a lot
more anxiety in South Korea about how they deal with a nuclear North Korea – and
what the U.S. would actually do,” says Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson
Center and director of Stimson’s 38 North Program.
South Korea’s concern has grown along with Pyongyang’s ability to put the
continental U.S. at risk. Despite the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops in their
country, South Koreans have doubts about whether they can rely on what is known
as the U.S. nuclear umbrella, or “extended deterrence,” whereby the U.S. is bound
by a treaty to swiftly retaliate for any attack on South Korea.
“Even when the U.S.-ROK [Republic of Korea] alliance is strong, when North Korea
intensifies its provocations,” questions arise about the “United States’ credibility of
extending nuclear and conventional deterrence,” says Ji-Young Lee, associate
professor of international relations at American University’s School of

International Studies. “This is … a reflection of North Korea creating another layer
of crisis.”
Moreover, South Koreans are drawing a troubling lesson from Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, and Moscow’s use of nuclear threats to deter the U.S. and other countries
from intervening directly.
South Korea is “watching how the U.S. has reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,”
says Ms. Town. “That really raises anxieties … like what happens if North Korea
were to attack? Would the U.S. show a similar restraint?”
Ahn Young-joon/AP
U.S. Army soldiers conduct a joint military drill between South Korea and the United States in Paju, South
Korea, on Jan. 13, 2023. In February, the two sides will hold a tabletop exercise on response options to the
North Korean nuclear threat.
South Koreans warm to nuclear armament

South Korea’s weighing of the nuclear route gained the spotlight with the 2022
election of Mr. Yoon, a populist and conservative leader whose hard-line approach
toward Pyongyang contrasts sharply with his predecessor Moon Jae-in’s focus on
reconciliation.
Mr. Yoon has aligned South Korea’s overall foreign policy more closely with that of
the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific strategy. He has emphasized strengthening deterrence
through the trilateral partnership between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, which
in November condemned Pyongyang’s multiple missile launches and promised a
joint response if North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test.
In this context, Mr. Yoon’s statements on the nuclear option are intended as more
of a warning to Pyongyang, says Dr. Lee. But Mr. Yoon and other South Korean
officials are reportedly interested in the U.S. deploying tactical nuclear weapons to
South Korea, three decades after Washington removed them in 1991. Washington
has stated it does not support the idea.
Many South Koreans do, says Lieutenant General Chun. They think that “maybe a
balance will be created on the Korean Peninsula, and North and South will both
understand unification by force is out the window,” he explains.
A report on North Korea released this month by a U.S. think tank recommends
Washington and Seoul should engage in preliminary planning for such a possible
option.
“The allies should consider tabletop planning exercises for the possible
redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea,” said the report by the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. It stressed such planning should be
“pre-decisional.” “The timeline and scope of weapons, such as low-yield nuclear

SLCMs [submarine-launched cruise missiles] or gravity bombs, should be left
deliberately ambiguous,” it said.
Ahn Young-joon/AP
People watch North Korea's missile launch displayed at the Unification Observation Post in Paju, South
Korea, on Jan. 27, 2023. South Korea’s government said Friday it will promote civilian efforts to provide
humanitarian assistance to North Korea in hopes of softening a diplomatic freeze deepened by North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s growing nuclear ambitions.
Need for trust

Even if discussions were to take place on the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear
weapons to South Korea, experts say South Korea is unlikely in the foreseeable
future to develop its own nuclear weapons given the damage that would cause to
the U.S.-South Korean alliance, the global nonproliferation regime, and South
Korea’s economic interests, including its civilian nuclear industry. Such a move
would make a crisis with the North more dangerous.
“If Seoul had nukes, the threats of North Korea would stay the same or get worse,”
says Mr. Panda.
A better alternative, they say, is for the U.S. to improve its extended deterrence
capabilities – something U.S. officials say is underway.
“Strong, reliable U.S.-extended deterrence would be a more effective deterrent than

South Korea pursuing its own nuclear program,” says Rachel Minyoung Lee, a
senior analyst with the Open Nuclear Network, an Austria-based organization with
the mission of reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.
Equally important, Washington must take steps to build greater trust in the U.S.
commitment to safeguarding South Korea. “The South Korean people are the ones
who are within range of North Korea’s tactical nuclear weapons and their means of
delivery,” says Ms. Lee, a former North Korea analyst for the U.S. government.
“South Koreans need stronger assurances from the U.S.”
Related stories
Seeking stability – and responsibility – Japan builds up military
All that nuclear talk: Is the unthinkable suddenly possible?
How Xi Jinping is reshaping China, in five charts
Read this article in

https://www.csmonitor.com/World Start your subscription today
/Asia-Pacific/2023/0131/Why- https://www.csmonitor.com/subscri
South-Korea-is-debating-a-nuclear- be
weapons-program
ISSN 2573-3850 (online)
Follow us:
    
© 1980–2023 The Christian Science Monitor. All Rights Reserved. Terms. Privacy Policy. Cookies Settings.

Why South Korea Is Debating A Nuclear Weapons Program: Cooperation

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

Why South Korea Is Debating A Nuclear Weapons Program: Cooperation

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Why South Korea Is Debating A Nuclear Weapons Program: Cooperation

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

2/10/23, 3:55 PM Why South Korea is debating a nuclear weapons program - CSMonitor.

Beyond fear, beyond anger. Real news, real hope.

Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP

Why South Korea is debating a nuclear

January 31, 2023

Political momentum is growing in South Korea for acquiring nuclear weapons – a

WHY WE WROTE THIS

South Korea Presidential Office/Yonhap/AP

New security environment

professor of international relations at American University’s School of

South Koreans warm to nuclear armament

“pre-decisional.” “The timeline and scope of weapons, such as low-yield nuclear

Need for trust

“Strong, reliable U.S.-extended deterrence would be a more effective deterrent than

Seeking stability – and responsibility – Japan builds up military

All that nuclear talk: Is the unthinkable suddenly possible?

How Xi Jinping is reshaping China, in five charts

Read this article in

ISSN 2573-3850 (online)

You might also like

2/10/23, 3:55 PM Why South Korea is debating a nuclear weapons program - CSMonitor.