Q2)

actual demand forecasted Demand A forecasted Demand B

1 536 575 550
2 590 600 580
3 554 580 545
4 622 595 600
5 718 610 670
6 673 625 645
7 640 630 650
8 595 640 645
9 542 600 565
10 588 605 570

800

700

600

500

actual demand
400
forecasted Demand A
forecasted Demand B
300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

a) By Visual check we can easily say that the forecast made by method B is more accurate
that the one made by method A.
 b)

forecaste forecaste
actual d d
deman Demand Demand Erro Error Abs Abs. Squar Squar
d A B rA B .A B eA eB %A %B
0.072 0.026
76119 11940
1 536 575 550 -39 -14 39 14 1521 196 4 3
0.016 0.016
94915 94915
2 590 600 580 -10 10 10 10 100 100 3 3
0.046 0.016
93140 24548
3 554 580 545 -26 9 26 9 676 81 8 7
0.035
0.043 36977
4 622 595 600 27 22 27 22 729 484 40836 5
0.150 0.066
41782 85236
5 718 610 670 108 48 108 48 11664 2304 7 8
0.071 0.041
32243 60475
6 673 625 645 48 28 48 28 2304 784 7 5
0.015 0.015
7 640 630 650 10 -10 10 10 100 100 625 625
0.075 0.084
63025 03361
8 595 640 645 -45 -50 45 50 2025 2500 2 3
0.042
0.107 43542
9 542 600 565 -58 -23 58 23 3364 529 01107 4
0.028 0.030
91156 61224
10 588 605 570 -17 18 17 17 289 289 5 5
TO 0.628 0.375
TA 96826 84722
L 388 231 22772 7367 6 3
MSE 2277.2 736.7
MAD 38.8 23.1
MAPE 6.289682 3.758472
(%) 656 23

______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Q3) a)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Actual demand 4000 4200 4200 3000 3800 5000 5600 4400 5000 4800
Forecasted
Demand 4500 5000 4000 3800 3600 4000 5000 4800 4000 5000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Actual deman
2000
1000 Forcasted Demand

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10