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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

56

2018 6
26-27
Hotel NH Brusse
ls Bloom 1210 saint - jose -
ten- noode

2019

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

56 ISSN 1073-1652 ISBN 978-0-


309-48006-2

; ;
TRB (www.TRB.org national-academies.org/trb)
TRB
:500 Fifth Street, NW, NW, DC 20001( :202-334-3213; 202-334-2519; TRBsales@nas.edu)

2019

: 56 : -
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:Beth Schlenoff, Beth Schlenoff

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

(National Academy of ) 1863

1964
cd (Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr.)

( ) 1970

www.national-academies.org

7,000
(
)

www.TRB.org

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

www.nationalacademies.org/about/ whatwedo

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Barbara Lenz Susan


Shaheen Matthew W.
Daus, Windels Marx Lane & Mittendorf Barry einsing
( CAVita) Satu Innamaa VTT
Alex Karner
Alexandra Millonig, AIT Timothy
Papandreou, City Innovate
Marcin Stepniak

Maria Carbone Robert Missen


Frank Smit Roberta Zobbi

Alasdair Cain Peter Chipman

William Anderson Katherine


Kortum Gary Jenkins

CRP 56
Eileen P. Delaney Natalie Barnes
Janet M. McNaughton
Jennifer Correro Kathleen Mion

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

.................................................................................................................................................................9
...............................................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................... 1
Clara de la Torre Robert Missen
....................................................................................................................................... 2
Neil J. Pedersen
............................................................................................................................................... 2
Alasdair
............................................................................................................................................... 2
Barbara Lenz Susan Shaheen
................................................................................................................................................... 3
Johanna P. Zmud Nick Reed
: .............................................................................................................................. 6
f

1: ................................................................................................................................ 8

2: ...................................................................................................... 11
Alex Karner Marcin Stepniak
3: .............................................................................................................. 13
Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen
4: ? ........................................................................................................................ 16
Matthew W. Daus Satu Innamaa

vii

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

: .................................................................................................................................... 19
................................................................................................................................................. 19
Clara de la Torre Robert Missen
................................................................................................................................. 20
Neil J. Pedersen
............................................................................................................................................. 20
Alasdair

-
.................................................................................................................................................................21

A.

............................................................................................................................................................. 25
p

B.
......................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen
1:
- ............................................................................................................................................ 64

2: ...................................................................................................... 67
Alex Karner Marcin Stepniak
3: .................................................................................. 70
Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen
4: .............................................................................. 73
Satu Innamaa Matthew W. Daus

c ............................................................................................................................................................................78

d. ..........................................................................................................................................................81

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

AV
CAV
CAVSM CV

EV
ISINNOVA
NASEM PPP
TRB

ix

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

2018 6 26 27
NH

( ) (TRB) A
b

CAVSM

; ;
(CAVSM)

CAVSM -

TRB
Johanna Zmud
Barbara Lenz
Nick Reed
Susan Shaheen
Karel Martens Michael
Ableson CAVSM

xi

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

xii PREFACE

TRB
TRB
: ;
(ISINNOVA) Tina Quigley ;

-
CAVSM

(Clark University)
(Susan Hanson)( )
; ;
TRB;Acad-emies;

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Neil J. Pedersen
Alasdair Cain

Nick Reed, Bosch


Johanna P. Zmud, Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Karel Martens technon - Israel Institute of Technology
Michael F. Ableson

De la
( )
Clara de la Torre

(CAVSM)

- De la
2013

CAVSM

1
Twinning: coordination of research activities in funded projects of mutual
interest.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

2 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

CAVSM CAVSM (
)
CAVSM Pedersen
De la
CAVSM
De la
(2021-2027)
; Pedersen
;
:
;
150 (175 )

(PPP)

Robert Missen CAVSM


Alasdair
( )
CAVSM
CAVSM

CAVSM

CAVSM
CAVSM

Pedersen CAVSM

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

OPENING SESSION 3

CAVSM

CAVSM p

: ; a
; ; Zmud Reed
CAVSM Zmud
CAVSM

1 (AV) (CV)
Lenz Shaheen

AV
AV

2
Each breakout group included between 12 and 15 participants (from both
the European Union and the United States) representing academia, business,
and policy making.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

4 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

mudd
1914
0 : (
1 : CAVSM )
CAVSM

2 : (General data Protection Regulation)


/
Zmud 90%

3 :

4 :
cv
5 :

Zmud CAV

:
/

;
( ( 2) Zmud
;4 ) cv
4 5
Zmud CAVSM CAV
CAV
CAVSM
:

2015
91%
Reed
/ (
( 43%
) 88%)
z 20%-25%

8%( 3)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

OPENING SESSION 5

:Texas A&M Transportation Institute


a
Carsharing /

b
Ridesourcing
( :SAE International J3163, 2018 9 http://sae.org/shared-
mobility/ )

FIGURE2

2040 30%

2030 640

Reed

(European Truck Platooning)

Reed

(
)
Reed
( 4)

:
FIGURE3

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

6 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

? Reed

:
f

Karel
:
?
:Rinspeed (
4 )

Reed

: ( ) ( )

CAVSM :

(
)
Reed

Reed CAVSM
2

Reed CAVSM

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

OPENING SESSION 7

(1)
(2) 40%
(3)
4
Ableson
( 2019
) ( )

2 3 1
15
Ableson Ableson

(
)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Timothy Papandreou, City Innovate

Alex Karner
Marcin Stepniak
Alexandra Millonig AIT Susan Shaheen

Matthew W. Daus, Windels Marx Lane and Mittendorf, LLP Satu


Innamaa, VTT

b Lenz

CAVSM
(
) Lenz 1
:
5

Lenz 1

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 9

Lenz

Lenz

Lenz 1
1 Lenz

Lenz 2:
Lenz
1

3
Blockchain is a digital ledger in which transactions are recorded chrono-
logically and publicly.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

10 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

Lenz Papandreou 2
( / )

( )

1 ( )

-
2 Lenz Papandreo cav
u

/
Lenz Papandreou (
)

( )
( )

CAV

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 11

;
;
;

;4

( )

2
Alex Karner Marcin Stepniak

(
)
Karner Stepniak 1:

1
Karner Stepniak 1

( );
Karner Stepniak
;

/ ;
;

4
Gig jobs are temporary, flexible jobs typically held by independent con-
tractors and freelancers instead of full-time employees.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

12 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

cav
Karner Stepniak 2

Karner Stepniak

( )

/ ( )
Karner Stepniak (
/ )

Karner Stepniak 2:

( ) ( /
/ ) (
)
Karner Stepniak 2

Karner Stepniak
2

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 13

;
( )

;
;
( )
CAVSM ( )
;

( ) ;

;
;

AV

3
Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen
( )

( )

Millonig Shaheen 1:
/

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

14 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

1,Millonig Shaheen CAV

CAV
Millonig Shaheen 1
CAV

(
) CAV
CAV

CAV Millonig Shaheen 2:CAV

1 Millonig 3d
Shaheen

CAV

CAV CAV
CAV CAV

1 Millonig Shaheen 2

CAV

Millonig Shaheen
1
(
)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 15

VSM
CAVSM

:
2 Millonig
Shaheen CAVSM
(
)

/
Millonig Shaheen 2 CAVSM

(
)

CAVSM
( )

CAVSM

/ 3d

Millonig Shaheen 2

CAVSM
( )

CAVSM
(
)

-
CA

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

16 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

;
cavsm

;
;

CAVSM
CAVSM

4
?
w Daus Innamaa

Daus Innamaa

CAV

; Daus Innamaa 1 :
CAV
( CAV )

;
CAVSM CAV
;
CAVSM ;

CAVSM ( 1 Daus
); Innamaa

CAVSM ;

CAVSM
( ); Daus Innamaa

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 17

Daus Innamaa 2
1

(
)

Daus Innamaa 1 2 Daus Innama


a

1 Daus Innamaa

Daus Innamaa 2

(
)

2:

Daus Innamaa

-
2 CAVSM

-
,

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

18 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

CAV

CAVSM

(
)
CAV

CAVSM cav
/
cav

CAV /

CAV

( )

cav (
/ )
:

cav ;

;
CAV
;

;
( )
;

( )

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Neil J. Pedersen
Alasdair Cain

:
EU
2020
2020

EU

De la 2019 4 2
( 3
)

Barbara Lenz
Susan Shaheen ; :
w

;
;
CAVSM EU
; ;

CAVSM
Clara de la Torre

19

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

20 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

Missen 2019 1 Pedersen 1 13 17


TRB 2019 TRB

TRB

j Pedersen
Neil Pedersen

Pedersen
-

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

(ISINNOVA)

cavsm

: CAVSM
; ; ;
; ; ( )
TRB

(
)

cavsm

21

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

22 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

CAV

CAVSM
( )

cav
CAVSM

( )

CAVSM

:
Impact
CAVSM ( )

( /
CAVSM
)

3d CAVSM

CAVSM cav
(
)

cav

cav
CAV

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO FOR EU-U.S. RESEARCH 23

(
)
CAV

CAVSM

CAV

CAVSM

( )

CAV

( )

CAVSM

CAV

CAV

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

24 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

( )

( )
CAVSM

cav

:
cavsm

CAVSM

CAVSM

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

a:

Johanna P. Zmud, Texas A&M Transportation Institute


Nick Reed, Bosch

CAVSM
EU GPS
(PII)
(CAVSM) PII
PII

CAVSM ( ) ( )
:
CAVSM

CAVSM (CAV)
90%
; ; CAV

EU

CAVSM

25

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

26 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

; CAVSM

CAVSM

CAVSM Introduction

CAV
2040 (AV)
(CV)

CAVSM

CAVSM

( )
(Intern CAVSM
ational Transport Forum) CAVSM
440 ;

( )

CAVSM
CAVSM

CAVSM

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 27

(GHG)
(sav)
(AI)
CAVSM

( )
(V2V)
(SAE) (
(V2I)
) ( 5 )
V2V V2I

V2X (
)
( )
1 2
(Hong et al. 2014)
V2I V2V ;
(DSRC) 4G-LTE
CV 5G
(C&AD CAD)
AI

(European commissio
n 2017b)
0 :
1 :

C&AD
2 :
CV
/
(
)
( )
3 :

(Shaheen et al.
2017a)
4 :

2016
5 :
540
(Grosse-Ophoff et al. 2017)
230
60

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

28 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

C&AD SAV 2018


EU

sav (The Economist CVs V2V


2018) V2I 2014 8 NHTSA
V2V
2017 1 NHTSA

V2V V2V
CAVSM 2018
2017 11 NHTSA
( DSRC;5G( ) V2V
CAVSM
EU 2017 9
CAVSM 2017 10
CAVSM START 2018 5

AV
CAVSM
NHTSA

AV

START
2016 ( DOT)
(NHTSA)
START
NHTSA
2.0:
(NHTSA2017 ) AV
SAE 3-5 (NCSL)
AV (
http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/
autonomous-vehicles-self-driving-vehicles-enacted-
legislation.aspx.) NCSL:
NHTSA NHTSA
2012 41
2018
AV 3.0 2017 22

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 29

2020
( )
2020 4
(
)

2020
( )
2018 5G

2017 8
48
(Moran et al. 2017)
1949 1968
:

43
:

Platooning

NCSL

(GEAR2030)

( http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportatio
( 2016 )
n/car-sharing-state-laws-and-legislation.aspx)
2019
V2V
V2I

2018 5
:
( 2018 )
2016 C&AV
2020

:
2016
3 4 traffic
(

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

30 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

1 CAVSM

2017
3

(Gudmundsson 2013)

(UK)

;
;
;

(
UK )
( 8 ) CAVSM
2016 3 (ETSC 2016a)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 31

;
;
3D (Bloom et al. 2017)
CAVSM
( )

PII

( ) ( ( )
) ( /
)
;
(Franckx 2017)

CAVSM
;
CAVSM ;

cv

(Westin 1967) PII


PII

PII
(
2017 )
GPS
: GPS; PII
; PII
;

PII PII

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

32 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

( ) ( ) arfinkel 2015)

2015

Kum Ahalt(2013)
:
2015 63% CAVSM

:
2015

( )
(European Commission
2015)
( api)
( 55%)
(62%)
( https://blog.bosch-si.
(63%)
com/mobility/intermodal-transportation-to-advance-
- -vis
mobility-in-urban-areas/)

( https://movement.uber.
com/?lang=en-US)

(EDRs)(
(Kum Ahalt, 2013) ) (Koch 2006)

:
PII

(
Bluetooth )
?

(G (Dorri)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 33

Et al. 2017)
CAVSM
CAVSM
cv
CAVSM

2014

Privacy Protec (Markey 2015)


tion United Sta 2017
tes
(
2014 )
(Jolly 2017)
(
)
edr
edr

EU
PII 2018 5
( ) 1995
EDR (Canis EU
Peterman 2014) 2015 EU
edr edr 2016 (GDPR)
EDR EDR 2018 5 25
GDPR
EDR
( ) EU
EU

(FTC) (Sotto GDPR (


Simpson 2014) FTC 5 https://www.eugdpr.org/key-changes.html)

FTC :

EU

72

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

34 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

CAVSM
CAVSM

(Brooks and
(IT)
Nadeau 2015)

GDPR 4%
7.2 ( )

CAVSM (Bloom et al. 2017)


:
(Zmud et al. 2016a)

1
CAVSM
1

EU
CAVSM

CAVSM
( )

PII

2 EU

2:

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 35

2014
( https://joinup.
ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/document/2014-02/EU%
20Open%20data%20 policy.pdf)
CAVSM
( 2) ( )
CAVSM

(
http://opendatahandbook.org/guide/en/what-is-open-
data/) (MOD)

( O/D
)

2013 /

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

36 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

? FTC (Diamond et al. 2009)


CAVSM GDPR

GDPR 5
OpenTraffic (Zipper 2018)

2017
(NACTO) GDPR /
(SharedStreets)

Uber Lyft
Ofo

( )

90%

CV

V2I

CAVSM /
( )

2030
7500 (Alonso Raposo et al.
2018) cv
4 5

- -

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 37

/
( )
2016 25500
(Wegman 2017) CAV 1000 (Traffic
Impact Newswire 2016) 2016
2015 600 2010 6000
19%( 2017a)
2010

(IEEE 2018)

CAVSM
90%
(NHTSA 2015b) 1

( https:// ec.europa.eu/
transport/themes/its/road_it) NHTSA
:

2,046,000 (94%);
( )
(Jansson 1994) 4.4 (2%);

5.2 (2%);
(
) 47000 (2%)
(Edlin and Karaca-Mandic
: (41%)
2006;Parry et al. 2007; 2014)
(33%) (11%) (7%)
2016 37,461
2015 2014 ( 35,092 32,657 )

2011 200 69000


(NHTSA 2015a)
48000 ( 2014)
NHTSA 2010
2420 (NHTSA2015 )
( )
( )

1
The critical cause is defined as the immediate reason for the pre-crash
event as collected in NHTSA s National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation
Survey, conducted from 2005 to 2007.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

38 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

:
V2V GPS
( )
-

NHTSA
:
2021

ICAVSM
V2V V2I
V2I
V2V V2I

( https://www.its.
( cv ) dot.gov/factsheets/pdf/NYCCVPliot_Factsheet_
020817.pdf)

V2V V2I
V2V V2I
V2I

Najm (2010) V2I V2V


(
https://www.its) / tampa_participants.
(2013) V2V V2I
htm)
V2V V2I
80

400
( https://www.its.dot.gov/pilots/pdf/04_
V2V CVPilots_Wyoming.pdf)
CV
NHTSA CV
V2V NHTSA V2I
NHTSA FHWA ITS/JPO V2I
V2V

V2V
:

(Harding
et al. 2014)
C-
ITS

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 39

( http://www.itsinternational.com/categories/ /
networking-communication-systems/features/tri-
nation-cooperation-on-c-its-corridor/) SAE 3-5
C-Roads
C-ITS 2017
( https://www.c- - -vis
roads.eu/platform.html)

NordicWay C- (SHRP) 2
ITS (NDS) (Blanco et al. 2016)
v
NordicWay 3G 4G/LTE ; SHRP 2 NDS( 3400
C-ITS 2000 ( ) (
Nordicway.net) 130 )
Kalra Groves(2017) :
UKCITE( ) (1)
;(2)
40
LTE ITS-G5 WiFi V2X ( )

( https://www.cwlep) com/news/uk-cite-
project)

Level 3

SAE 3-5
( )
2016
(Jannsen Kenemans 2015;Trimble
2014) 4 5
( )
(Zmud
2016b, Smith Anderson 2017, Kolodge 2017, Sener
2018)

:https://
www.trafi.fi/en/road/automated_vehicle_trials

(Favar et al. 2017)


2 (

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

40 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

(
(AEB) AEB 2015)
38% (Fildes et al. 2015)

( 4 4-5)
3

( 4 4,5)

2016 5 :

( 3 ) H2020 (
(Bhuiyan 2017) )

:(1) (2)
(3) (
(Boudette and https://
Vlasik 2017) www.h2020-coexist.eu/)

DriveMe Pilot 100 xc90


3 3

(IntelliSafe Autopilot)
3 (
https://www.testsitesweden.com/en/projects-1/
driveme)
2020 ADAS&ME
L3PILOT 2017 9
C-ITS
( EUR)

L3PILOT 34
; (
13
)
11 100 1000
(Trimble 2014)
( )
( www l3pilot.
( )
ue / index . php ? id = 26)

AUTOPILOT 2017 1

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 41

5G car 2017 6

5G
(DUI)
( https://cordis.
europa.eu/project/rcn/206508_en.html)

(Truck platooning)
(Elgart et al.
2016)
CO2 ENSEMBLE
(EUR ) 2018 2021

(shirgoak
TNO (
ar 2016)
)
http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/
portal/desktop/en/opportunities/h2020/ topics/art-03-
2017.html (Rogers 2017)

2020 (Horizon 2020)

UK 2021
Innovate UK (Shaheen et al. 2016)
GATEway

;UK (UK Autodrive)


(Milton Keynes) Cov-entry (
;Venturer 2016)

(Dennis and Spulber 2017) (


2018 2 sav )
8 17 (Stocker
Shaheen )

Waymo
Easymile Navya Cruise/ GM Drive.
ai 2018 3

:
(1)
( )

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

42 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

?
(Kelly Bluebook) (2016)
12
( 56% 44%)

(51% 49%)

(Sener et al. 2018)

CAVSM (Kitayama et al. 2014) IT

IT ( )

(bryan 2017)
IT
4 5

SAE SAE j3101 -


saej3061 -

2016 8
(
( )
) Miller Valasek(2015) (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/
TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52017XX0720%2801%29)

Wi-Fi OBD-II
( )

(McCormick 2017)

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 43

(
) CAVSM

( Eddington 2006)
CAVSM

CAVSM

CAVSM

D
: (Murphy 2000)
( ) /

88% (B sch et al. 2017);


55%
(Op. city .);
43% (Hooper and Murray
2017)

CAVSM

CAVSM CAVSM
5%

cavsm

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

44 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

(
)
( 8% (Chan et al. 2012)
) (Greenblatt 21% (Hooper
Shaheen 2015) and Murray 2017) 26% (Meszler et al.
2018)

(
Caballini et al. 2017)

( ) ENSEMBLE
(
)
:
(Beede et al. 2017) (ITF)
640
440 (ITF
2017)
1993
; (Bui 2015)

(Bishop 2000)
(Costello 2017) ( Todd and Waters 2018)
(Simonite 2016)

( Waymo Embark TuSimple)


Otto( ) -
(Anheuser-Busch) I-
25

120 (Fitzpatrick, 2016)


(FMCSA 2011) (
PWC
2006) ( : 2006)
2040
30%(PWC MI
2018 )
(Daimler) (Volvo)
( )
(Scania) DAF

Maasvlakte

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 45

on 2018) ;Navya
(Christie et al. 2016) Easymile (Robarts 2015)
12 ;Aurrigo
(Parmenter 2017) nuTonomy (Ackerman 2016)
(
Stocker Shaheen )

(Stocker
Shaheen 2016;Stocker Shaheen, 2017)
2014 ( 2009
) ( Peloton
Simpson 2018)
(
) (
) ( )
( 2018 )
NACTO
(NACTO 2017 )

( Starship Technologies, Nuro)

(Visser et al. 2014) Starship ( )


(Karasin 2017) (Gerrard 2017) CAVSM

(
http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/
(Wong 2017) Mobility-on-Demand-Operational-Concept-Report-2017.
VMT/GHG pdf)
( 1865)

(Shergold et al. 2016)

40
( )
(Toffler Alvin 1980)

( ) ;

Waymo (Korosec 2018) Aptiv/


,
Lyft (Etheringt

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

46 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

45 -
( )(Muller 1995) CAVSM (Feigon
Murphy 2016;Rayle et al. 2016;Clewlow and Mishra
2017; 2017;Gehrke et al. 2018;Hampshire et al.
2017)
Lyft uberPO
OL Lyft Line
Sener et al.(2018)
(Maia Meyboom 2018) (39%)
(61%)
( )

(SCR 2018)

(Shaheen 2016)

( )
/
( )
Lyft

154 - 435 (Shaheen


2015)
(
) CAVSM
(
)

(Forde et al. 2017)


CAVSM
(Meyer et al. 2017) Lyft

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 47

Waymo
/
Goos Manning
/ (2007)
;
(
) Frey Osborne(2013)

sav
( ) /
( VIP (Arntz et
al. 2016) 9%
) Frey Osborne

2017 81%
( Beede )
(Smith and Anderson 2017) 2015 1550

(Beede 2017 )
(
(
)
( (
)) (
)

(88%)
(92%)

( )
( )
:(1) (Diels Bos
( );(2) 2016)
(
);(3)
( tb (Broughton et al. 2003)
) ( NHTSA/NCAP, EuroNCAP)

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

48 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

(Russo Comi 2012)

GNewt
Cargo ;
PedalMe
(Goodwin 2004;Hartgen 5 ( 5 )
et al. 2009)
Starship technologies Dispatch
; Robotics

CAVSM

(
:
)

(Fagnant et al. 2015;Greenblatt and Shaheen 2015)

(Schaller 2017) (
6%) ( 3%) (Clew-low Mishra 2017)

( B sch 2017
2017
)
6

(Wong 2017)

( )
:

(
(Visser et al.
Shaheen 2017)
2014)
( )

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 49

I
CAVSM

(Jones and Livingstone 2018)

CAVSM

(Litman 2016 )
/
11% 26-39%
30-57% 6-26%
(Chester et al. 2015)
CAV
V2I

CAVSM
Zhang (2015)

90% CAVSM
CAVSM
(Lazarus et al.
2018) (Martens 2012)
(Eddington
2006) CAVSM

CAVSM

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

50 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

CAVSM

( ) (Shaheen
2017a;Shaheen 2017b;Kroger et al. 2018)

( ) CAVSM

/
( )

(Junken 2015) 43
( 2013; 2014 )
(
92%
; Helman et al. 2010)
7%
( Fagnant and Kockelman 2018;Greenblatt
Shaheen 2015)
45
45 7
4 (Golub Martens 2014)

Grengs(2010)
( )

CAVSM

/
( )

1960
e
/
( 1967 ): ; ;
( )

(Giesel et al.
2013) CAVSM
(Bajaj 2018)
(Parkhurst etal . 2014)
(Musselwhite 2017)

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 51

(Anstey 2006;Edwards
20 90 et al. 2008;Freeman et al. 2006;Gallo et al. 1999)

/
( 2014)

CAVSM
(Beaulac et al. 2009)
(Schneider and Gruber 2013)

( ) Insight
CAVSM (http://insight-cav.com/)

CAVSM CAVSM

( )

(
)
CAVSM

( Rosiers 2010;Diaz and McLean


1999;Forrest et al. 1996)

CAVSM /
(National Association of Counties, 2017)

CAVSM

Inclusion ( ) /

/
70% (Statista
2017 2018)

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

52 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

( https://citymapper.com/smartride)
30% CityMa
93% 15 ; pper
60%
(Demirguc-Kunt et al. 2018) CityMapper

( )
Via( )

( RAMONA :http://www.
(Serebrin 2016) dlr.de/vf/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2974/1445_read-
50061/ MERGE :https://mergegreen
sav wich) com/)
(Fagnant /
Kockelman 2018;Greenblatt and Shaheen 2015)

SAV

Lyft
(Walker 2018)
VMT/VKT CAV
: ;

(Shaheen Cohen
2018)

(Gunier et al. 2003)


2017 (Meng et al.
CityMapper 2008, Espino et al. 2015)
SmartRide

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER 53

(
CAVSM )

( 2019 4 )

GDPR CAVSM

CAVSM
(
)

CAVSM

CAVSM
90%
CAV
CAV

(
) CAV

;
( ) ( )

CAVSM

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

54 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

/
/

cv

cv av

AI
AI

AI ( )
/

Ackerman, E. (2016). After Mastering Singapore s


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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

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mated Driving Concepts: Past Research, State of 01/who-owns-urban-mobility-data/549845/.
Automa-tion Technology, and Emerging System
Concepts. Report No. DOT-HS-812-043. National Zmud, J., J. Wagner, M. Moran, and J. P. George. 2016a.
Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D. License Plate Reader Technology: Transportation Uses
C.
and Privacy Risks. NCHRP 08-36: Task 136. Retrieved
April 2018 from https://scholarship. law. tamu. edu/cgi/
Visser, J., T. Nemoto, and M. Browne. Home delivery and viewcontent.cgi?article=1920&context=facscholar.
the impacts on urban freight transport: A review.
Procedia: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 125, Zmud, J., I. Sener, and J. Wagner. 2016b. Consumer Accep-
2014, pp. 15 27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014. tance and Travel Behavior Impacts of Automated
01.1452.
Vehicles. Final Report. PRC-15-49F. Texas A&M
Transportation Institute, College Station.
Wegman, F. 2017. The future of road safety: A worldwide
perspective. IATSS Research, Vol. 40, No. 2. Retrieved
June 2018 from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Alexandra Millonig, AIT Susan Shaheen

Barbara Lenz
Barry einsing, Cisco Systems, Inc.( CAVita)Alex Karner

Marcin Stepniak
Satu Innamaa VTT Matthew W. Daus, Windels
Marx Lane and Mittendorf, LLP

Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen


Introduction
CAV
- ( ) ( )
(
) :

, ,

/ ( )

/ 1
( )

1
The freight subtopic defines the two opposing scenarios as: (1) Auto-
mated Vehicles Taking Over Transport Business and (2) Automated cav
Roadway Freight Restrained by Policy. The policy/governance (stake-
holder response) subtopic defines its two opposing scenarios as: (1) CAVs
on the Rise and (2) CAVs Tamed by Policy.

62

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 63

1 (Millonig Shaheen 3 )

(4 5 )

:(1) (2) 1:cav


(3) (4) /
:(1) (2) (3) CAV
(4) cav
(
(
)
) :(1) cav (2) cav
/
1
:(1) / (2) /

( )

cav

2
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has defined five levels of
vehicle automation, with Level 1 signifying vehicles that automate only one
primary control function (e.g., self-parking or adaptive cruise control) and
Level 5 referring to vehicles capable of driving in all environments without
human control (U.S. Department of Transportation 2016]. The majority of
AV pilots thus far are target-ing Level 4 automation, where a human ( )
operator does not need to control the vehicle as long as it is operating in a
suitable operational design domain (ODD) given its capabilities. (Stocker
and Shaheen 2018, Forthcoming).

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

64 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

cav

2:

:(1)
( ) ;(2)
( 3d 2 ( / / )

1:
20
(
)
(
;
)

(
)

1 ( )

Introduction

:(1) (2)
(3) (4)
( )
( )

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 65

? ?
?

? ? ?

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

66 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

?
:
?
?
?
( )?

CO2

(1) (2) (3)


(4) ( 1
? )
( )
?
?

?
? ?

2:
?

? ?

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 67

)?
?

?
?

?
?

?
?
?

? 2
Alex Karner Marcin Stepniak

Introduction

(GDPR)
(
)
( )
( ) ( )

/ ?
?
?
? ?
?

1
?
/

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

68 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

2
1
2
1
1:
1
?

( )
?

CAV

(
)
( )
( )

CAV

( ) (
)

( )
( )

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 69

) ?
( ) ? ?
? 2:
2

(
)

( )
(
)
( )
?
2

(
)
2

(
/ ) (
/ )

?
( )
?

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

70 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

2 20 2 CAV
1

1
? CAV
?
2

? 2 2
? 2
cav ?

Alexandra Millonig Susan Shaheen

Introduction
2

(CAV)
( )
?
? :(1)
? (2) (3) (4)
2
cav
;

:(1) cav (2)


1

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 71

(1) / (2) /
?
( / )?
(
)
?
1:cav ? ?
CAV

(
) ?
/

( ) ?
?

( ?
)
?

cav
:(1)
(2) (3) (4)
(
)
cav

( )
CAV
( ) ?
?

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

72 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

? :(1) (2)
(3) (4)

( / )
? /
?
(
) (
)
( ?
)
? ( )

2: cav ?

( )
?
( 3d
)

(
)

?
( ?
)
( ( )
)
?

( ?
)

cav

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 73

( )

? / CAV
( ) (
)
:(1) ;(2)
? ;(3) ;(4) ;(5)

? (
)
:
; ;
;
(
)

?
;

4:

Satu Innamaa Matthew W. Daus

Introduction

(
:(1)CAV
;(2) /
CAV )
CAV ; (3)
:(1) (2)
(3) (4)

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

74 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

1:cav
( 1
)

:(1) cav
;
;(2)
/
: /
/ 1
2
( )

(SAE 4-5)
3
:
(1) (2) (3)
(4) 1

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 75

( ) ?

(
)
/

1
2

?
( :
) ? ? CAV
?
1 ?
?
?

1
1
/
(
)

( ) /
( )?

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

76 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

(MOD)
; ;
? /
( / )

/ 2
(
1)

1
(

)?

SAE (
)
?
1

( (
))
2 1
?

2
2:
2
1

2 1
( )

(
) (
(MaaS) )
?

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

A P P E N D I X B : B R I E F I N G PA P E R S O N E X P L O R AT O RY T O P I C S 77

2 S/MOD

( ) 2
(
) (
( ) 2
)
?

SAE
/ (
? ) SAE

WAV ;
WAV ?
(
)
WAV ?

2 Rohr, Charlene, Lissa Ecola, Johanna Zmud, Fay Dunkerely,


/ James Black, and Eleanor Baker (2016). Travel in
Britain in 2035: Future Scenarios and Their
Implications for Tech-nology. RR-1377. Rand:
Cambridge, UK.
1
Stocker, Adam and Susan Shaheen (2018). Shared
2 Automated Vehicle (SAV) Pilots and Automated
1 2 Vehicle Policy in the U. S. : Current and Future
Developments, Road Vehicle Automation 5. Springer:
( Cham, Switzerland.
) Maa U. S. Department of Transportation (2016). Federal
Automated Vehicles Policy, https://www.transportation.
gov/sites/dot.
gov/files/docs/AV%20policy%20guidance%
20PDF.pdf (accessed 08 November 2016).

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

EU-U.S

2018 6
26-27
Hotel NH
Brussels Bloom 1210 Saint-
Josse-ten-Noode
2018 6 26
07:30

08:30
Clara de la Torre

Neil J. Pedersen
Alasdair Cain

- :
Barbara Lenz
Susan Shaheen

9
p A&M
(Nick Reed)

9:45

10 15 :
Karel Martens
Michael F. Ableson

78

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

APPENDIX C: PROGRAM 79

1 1
12:30 ;

13:30
1:
15:15 Timothy Papandreou, City Innovate

:
15 Alex Karner Austin
Marcin Stepniak
3:
Alexandra Millonig, AIT
Susan Shaheen

4: ?
Matthew Daus Windels Marx Lane and Mittendorf, LLP
Satu Innamaa VTT

1:

( )
2:

18:00 Mix & Mingle:

2 :2018 6 27

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

80 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M PA C T S O F A U T O M AT E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Michael Ableson w
Windels Marx Lane & Mittendorf

Auten Natalia de estvan - ubeda

Robert Bertini University Doerner


of South Florida

Marco Boero Gougeon


Softeco Sisma
t

Clarrissa Cabansagan Johann Gwehe


TransForm United nberger Allianz Insura
States nce
Robert C. Hampshire
(aig) University of Michigan

Annie Chang
SAE International

Corless Steven Higashid


e TransitCenter

Yannick Cornet
University of Zilinja Zipcar
Slovakia

Cozart Innamaa
PolicyLink VTT

Iwasaki
:

81

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Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

82 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
: : : : : : : :

gley

Nick Reed Bosc


h
Dalia Leven
AECOM
(ISINNOVA)
Marius Macku
Uber
Martin Russ
Martens Austria

Shaheen

Natasha Merat
University of Leed
s

Dimitris Milakis
Marcin Stepniak

Millonig Tausz
AIT (SBB)

Massimo Moraglio Techni Nikolas Thomopoulos


cal University Berlin University of Greenwic
h Greece

Sarita Turne
r PolicyLink
Pavithra Parthasarthi

RWI
Pinckard
Wilmink

Evangelia Portouli

Irina Yatskiv

tin
Johanna P. Zmud
a Qui

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Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Socioeconomic Impacts of Automated and Connected Vehicles

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


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