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CARE Ratings Initial (Jainam)
CARE Ratings Initial (Jainam)
21 Jan 2019
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the
Research Report.
Jainam Share Consultant research is available on www.jainam.in
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Index
A. Company Overview
1. About……………………………………………………….…………….…….3
2. Investment Rationale……………………………………….…………………4
3. Risk………………………………………………….………………………….5
B. Industry Overview
1. Global Outlook………… ……………………………………………..………………………………….6
.
2. Milestone………….…..…………………………… ………………………...14
.
3. Top Shareholders…………………………………..…………………………15
4. Management………………………………………………………………….16
D. Financial Outlook
1. Balance Sheet……………………………….……………….………………..17
2. Profit & Loss…………………………………… ………… ………………….18
. .
E. Analysis
1. Peer Analysis………………………………………………………………….20
2. Valuation………………………………………………………………………22
F. Conclusion
1. Recommendation…………………………………….……………………… .25 .
2. Sources……………………………………………….………………………..26
3. Full Form & Glossary………………………………………………………….27
4. Report Gallery………………………………………………………………….28
5. Disclaimer……………………………………………………………………..29
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Company Overview
About
Exchange: BSE NSE Code:534804 Current Market Price: 1014.50 Date: 21-JAN-19
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Investment Rationale
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Risk
Default risk - Default by a client would hamper the credibility of the rating agency and affect
their brand faith in the market. It is mandatory by SEBI to disclose the default rates as this
would keep the rating agency under control of the watch guard.
Concentration risk -CARE’s business is concentrated on rating revenues which account for
97% of consolidated revenues as compared to CRISIL and ICRA which are more diversified in
revenue profile. As a result macroeconomic concern would impact the growth of the company.
However, the company has taken small steps towards diversification with the acquisition of
Kalypto, a risk management company in Nigeria.
Expansion risk- Company is expanding its business outside India and had already entered
Maldives, Nepal, Brazil, Portugal, Malaysia and South Africa through various route like joint
venture. As the company is entering into newer geographies and services may potentially
impact margins in the medium term. However management is comfortable sustaining
operating margins at 63% and plus.
Reputational risk – Revenue of this business is largely dependent on brand recognition. CARE
has separated the analytic function and business development function, and analyst
compensation is not linked to business generated. CARE had moved to internal rating
committee where all ratings are assigned by internal rating companies.
Human risk – Business of the company is largely dependent on the human resource and it is
considered as the major proportion of the company expense. The management should have
an expertise in recruiting new credit analyst who is responsible for giving ratings.
Litigation risk – Company can come under legal supervision or litigation by the investors or
lenders to the company. Suppose Rating Company have assigned a particular corporate debt
in an investment grade category and the same company made default on their payment
obligations. Rating is just an opinion on the company debt issue and not any kind of
recommendation.
Recovery risk- If in case the company is not able to recover its annual surveillance fees this
can hamper the cash flows of the company as the surveillance fees is recorded over the 12
months equally every year.
Technology risk – significant security breaches and breakdown in the computer system and
network infrastructure can lead to the leakage of data and other important information about
the clients. CARE has in place kept a comprehensive IT policy.
Information risk – Rating of the credit agency is totally dependent on the basis of
information provided by its clients and third parties. Inaccuracy of the information provided
by them can lead to the risk of giving an inappropriate rating which may impact CARE
reputation.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Industry Overview
Global Outlook
Ratings in following segment may boost the revenue of the rating industry,if considered in India.
SUBSIDARY RATING: It helps to manage the subsidiary risk. Today’s regulatory landscape is
Unpredictable. Multi-national companies with subsidiaries around the world need to
constantly monitor the changing regulatory environment in the event that it could affect
their ability to manage effectively their cash across the group and fund corporate
development activities.
SWAP RISK RATINGS: A Swap Risk Rating is forward-looking opinion about the likelihood of
loss associated with a specific swap transaction.
A Swap Risk Rating takes into consideration the Ratings view on the terms of the Swap
Transaction including, without limitation, the creditworthiness of one or more reference or
underlying obligations or obligors (the "portfolio") above a certain specified threshold
percentage/amount, termination events, and potential recovery percentage or amount on
the Portfolio. All swap risk ratings take into consideration the creditworthiness of the
portfolio.
MID-MARKET EVALUATION (MME): A Mid-Market Evaluation (MME) is forward-looking
opinion about the creditworthiness of a mid-market company relative to other mid-market
companies. It assesses a mid-market company's relative capacity and willingness to meet its
financial obligations as they come due.
LOAN,RECOVERY RATINGS: A Loan Rating is the issue-specific rating assigned to a
borrower's syndicated loan. Loan Ratings are performed on syndicated loans comprised of
bank lenders and institutional investors. In the Loan Rating process, review Revolving Lines
of Credit, First Lien Term Loans, Second Lien Term Loans and Mezzanine Debt. Loan Ratings
are widely used in the loan market for credit risk assessment, pricing and structuring of
syndicated loans
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Indian Outlook
The fortune of the rating business is dependent of debt market and capital market of the country.
RBI has a mandatory guideline to rate the debt issuance and other commercial papers. Genesis of
the Credit Rating Industry in India, the first credit rating agency, Credit Rating and Information
Services of India Limited (“CRISIL”), was set up in 1987. Second largest rating agency, ICRA Limited
(then known as, Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited) (“ICRA”) was
established in 1991 and a third agency, CARE, was established in 1993. Duff and Phelps Credit
Rating India (P) Limited which started its operations in 1996 was renamed Fitch Ratings India
Private Limited (Fitch) in 2001 and renamed again to India Ratings and Research Private Limited in
2012. Brickwork Ratings India Private Limited (Brickwork) began its rating business in 2008. SME
Rating Agency of India Limited (SMERA) also began its rating business in 2008. Performance of the
top line is directly proportional to performance of Indian debt market and economical condition.
As capital flows in international financial markets had shifted from the banking sector to capital
markets, credit rating had begun to make a market overseas. Credit ratings are in use of financial
market of most developed economies and several emerging countries as well. With demand rising
in foreign countries, the number of foreign based rating agencies had increased. Along with four
largest U.S raters, one other U.S, one British, two Canadian and three Japanese firms are listed
among the world’s most influential rating agencies by the financial times in its publication credit
rating-international.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
-IPO
-Shipyard
-Banks
-Educational
-Credit Quality -Power institution
-Debt ratings
-Insurance -Roads -Maritime training
-Bank-loan
Ratings -State entities
-NBFC’s -Ports -Real estate project
-Issuer Ratings -Urban local
-Mutua funds -IDF -SME fundamentals
bodies
-corporate
Governance securitization -NSIC rating -Customized sector
Ratings
research
-SME rating
-CARE industry risk
metrics
-Economic research
reports
Fees structure
Initial rating fees
Fixed Deposits - 0.10% of the outstanding amount of Fixed Deposits subject to a minimum of
Rs.200,000
Debentures- 0.10% of the issue amount subject to a minimum of Rs.200,000.
Commercial Paper- 0.10% of the issue amount subject to a minimum of Rs.200,000.
Issuer Rating- 0.05% of all the outstanding debts as on last balance sheet date subject to
minimum of Rs.300,000.
Annual Surveillance fees
FD/Debentures/CP - 0.03% of the amount outstanding under the rated instrument subject to
a minimum of Rs.100,000.
Issuer Rating - 0.05% of the amount outstanding under the rated instrument subject to a
minimum of Rs.200,000.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Credit Reports - Fees applicable will depend on the scope and coverage of each report and
can be obtained on specific request.
Revenue collection
Initial rating fees is collected in advance before the rating is assigned and CARE does not
carry the risk of non-payment by the clients. Rating revenue is Recognize on the basis of %
of completion method. Surveillance fees are recorded over the term of 12 months from the
date of rating assigned. Company follows the conservative approach, Fees in respect of
certain category of clients are Recognize only when there is a reasonable certainty of
ultimate collection. Income from sale of research report and subscription to information
services are recognize on an accrual basis. Certain regulatory controls have been Establish
to control the Debtors policy and ensure that reviews and surveillance are conducted in a
timely manner.
Rating services includes credit ratings for corporate, banks, bank loans, small and medium
enterprises (SME), credit analysis services, grading services and global analytical services.
Research – Research segments includes global research and analytical services, industry
reports, customized research assignments, subscription to data services, independent
equity research (IER)
Advisory and training –CRISIL provides advisory services and a comprehensive range of risk
management tools, analytics and solutions to financial institutions, banks and Corporate in
India.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Focused business model – Care focus on large and medium sized enterprise and is
expecting a growth in the SME segment provide us positivity about the long term
fundamental prospects of the company and as the data suggest that care has been
consistently gaining market share over the last five years.
Rating procedure
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Validity of care credit ratings Short term rating letter have a validity period of 2
months .Long term rating letter have a validity period of 6 months. Care ratings are valid for
life of the instruments unless it is withdrawn. The rating may be upgraded, downgraded or
reaffirmed by the Rating Committee on periodic reviews, including annual surveillance.
Limitations of credit ratings They do not evaluate the reasonableness of the issue price,
possibilities for capital gains or take into account the liquidity in the secondary market.
Ratings also do not take into account the risk of prepayment by issuer. Ratings neither take
into account investors’ risk appetite nor the suitability of a particular instrument to a
particular class of investors.
Effect of implementation of new norms The implementation of Basel II standards by the
RBI resulted in large scale demand for credit ratings across sectors and geographies, which
was previously limited to a small group of clients. We are the leading credit rating agency in
India for IPO grading, having graded the largest number of IPO since the introduction of IPO
grading in India.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Growth Drivers
Growth by regulatory bodies Some of the measures are undertaken in the Union Budget
2018-19 for the development of corporate bond market. SEBI will also consider mandating,
beginning with large Corporate, to meet about one-fourth of their financing needs from the
bond market and to allow strong Regional Rural Banks to raise capital from the market to
enable them increase their credit to rural economy. Finance minister reduce the threshold
rating criteria and urged them to move from ‘AA’ to ‘A’ for investment eligibility.
Growth in SME market Various states are exploring options to increase capital availability
and improve policy support to SMEs. The West Bengal government has signed pacts with BSE
and NSE to raise awareness among the State’s MSMEs to tap the capital market as an
alternative funding source.
Growth in real estate sector The real estate sector has shown some pick up after the
implementation of RERA as has registered an average growth of 10% in Q1-FY19. Aggregate
bank deposit has grown at 7.6% yoy while the bank credit grew at 12.8% yoy in Apr-Jun’18.
This data suggest that there is an uptick in the construction activity.
Growth in commercial papers In FY18, commercial paper showed a growth as Rs. 22.9 lakh
crore were raised, 32% higher than the issuances of Rs. 17.4 lakh crore in the previous year.
Corporate are more incline towards borrowing by commercial papers although the growth of
the corporate bond market was subdued but there has been a growth in commercial papers.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Research division - During the year, CART undertook 9 industry research assignments for clients
to assist them in filing Draft Red Herring Prospectus.
Training division - During the year the company conducted 13 days of executive classroom
training on various topics which included customized training for a bank and an NBFC.
CRAF provides ratings for various instruments such as bonds, debentures, commercial paper,
bank deposits, structured finance and other debt instruments besides the bank facilities
including term loans, working capital limits, non-funded exposures etc.
CRAF has expanded its operations and assigned ratings to instruments in both the bond and
bank facilities domain aggregating to around MUR 20.0 billion (MUR 9.0 billion in FY17).
CRNL is providing credit ratings and related services in the geography of Nepal. The rating
services of CRNL majorly include IPO grading, issuer rating and rating of debt instruments.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
New projects
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Milestone
2003 ONWARDS
2005 to 2008
1997 to 2000
2009 to 2012
2001 to 2004
2013 ONWARDS
Source : CARE RATINGS LTD-WEBSITE
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Top Shareholders
Shareholders % Holding
Life Insurance Corporation of India 9.8%
CRISIL LIMITED 8.9%
Stichind Depositary Emerging Markets Equity Pool 3.8%
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVESTMENT FUNDS 2.6%
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON MUTUAL FUND 5.2%
THE PABRAI INVESTMENT FUND IV, LP 2.2%
DSP BLACKROCK MIDCAP FUND 2.6%
L AND T Mutual Fund Trustee ltd-L AND T TAX advantage ltd 3.3%
GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOABAL LTD 2.9%
INDIA CAPITAL FUND LIMITED 2.5%
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Management
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Financial Information
Balance Sheet
(Fig in cr)
Particulars March-16 March-17 March-18
Assets
Non-current assets
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Expenses
Employee benefits expense 75.63 72.60 88.90
Other expense 29.85 32.23 10.30
Depreciation and amortisation
4.17 3.39 3.14
expense
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Ratio
Du Point Analysis
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Peer Analysis
Total no of
No of instruments Total no of
instruments rated is
INSTRUMENTS RATED rated is 15000 in sme instruments rated is
10,273 in the SME
segment by CRISIL more than 4000
segment
Launched a new
ICRA had launched a Announces the
product called
credit rating scheme launch of certificate
NEW PRODUCTS Quantix to drive
for SME segment in courses in credit
growth in research
india management
business
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
face value 1 10 10
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Valuations
Management is expecting a growth rate in the range of 7% -10% during FY19
Scenario 1 assumptions:
Assuming the company grows at a rate of 7% for next 3 years .
Current P/E of 19.34 is assumed to estimate the M.cap.
SCENARIO 1 (PART 1) FY 21
5yrs avg PAT margin (%) 3yrs avg PAT margin (%)
sales 408 408
SCENARIO 1(PART 2) FY 21
5yrs avg EBITDA margin 3yrs avg EBITDA margin
(%) (%)
sales 408 408
EBITDA margin 62.58% 63%
EBITDA 255 257
Ev/EBITDA 12.14 12.14
M.cap (cr) 3100 3120
No. Of shares 2.9459 2.9459
Reasonable price 1052 1059
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Scenario 2 assumptions:
Assuming that a company grows at a rate of 10% for the next 3 years.
SCENARIO 2 (PART 1) FY 21
5yrs avg PAT margin (%) 3yrs avg PAT margin (%)
SCENARIO 2(PART 2) FY 21
5yrs avg EBITDA margin 3yrs avg EBITDA margin
(%) (%)
sales 443.00 443.00
EBITDA margin 0.63 0.63
EBITDA 277.22 279.00
Ev/EBITDA 12.14 12.14
M.cap (cr) 3365.45 3387.06
No. Of shares 2.95 2.95
Reasonable price 1142.42 1149.75
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Shares Outstanding
(Crore) 2.95
Net Debt Level -281.95
FINAL CALCULATIONS
Terminal Year 329
PV of Year 1-10 Cash
1,204
Flows
Terminal Value 1,058
Total PV of Cash Flows 2,262
Number of Shares 3
DCF VALUE/SHARE (Rs) 862
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Conclusion
Recommendation
Credit Analysis & Research Ltd (CARE) is second largest rating company in India which caters 30%
of the rating market share. Rating business accounts for around 97% of the total revenue of the
company.
Rating industry in India has seen growth in past few years but still there are product gaps in certain
segments as compared to rating industry globally. There is room to introduce some rating
instruments like Subsidary rating, swap risk rating, mid market evaluation, which are currently
rated in major economies worldwide.
CARE ratings is definitely a company which have a high growth potential and is consistently
growing at a good rate as compared to its industry peers. Company is also expanding his global
reach by acquiring or investing in the globally recognize rating firms.
Care continues to focus on high margin segment as the majority of the business is derived from
the rating segment and this margin is way higher than the industry leader who enjoys just 25%
EBIDTA margin and this EBIDTA margin of care ratings is expected to remain constant due to rising
focus on low margin SME business
The OPM of the company is consistent around 63% over the years and ROE of the company is also
around 30% in the past recent years. Management is quite focused towards one business segment
and also willing to expand their client base.CARE is available at lower valuations as compare to its
industry peers.
We recommend our Investors to “BUY" the stock with potential upside of 36% with Horizon of 2.5
years.
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
Sources
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : RATINGS
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : Consumer Durable
Report Gallery
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Jainam Share Consultant Pvt Ltd Sector : Consumer Durable
Disclaimer
Research Analyst Details
Analyst Certification: The Analyst certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their)
personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
Disclaimer: www.jainam.in is the domain owned by Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised
to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment,
legal or taxation advice to you. This report should not be reproduced to any other person in any form. This document
is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment
decision. Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd. or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for
any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this
report. Neither Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd., nor its employees, agents nor representatives shall be liable for
any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that
may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd. or any of its
affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter
pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular
purpose, and non-infringement.
The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd. and/or its
affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this
report. Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd. has incorporated adequate disclosures in this document. This should,
however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary
action has been taken on Jainam Share Consultants Pvt. Ltd. by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research
Analysis.
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