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2.valuation - TDM - WITHOUT - SOLUTIONS Slim Final
2.valuation - TDM - WITHOUT - SOLUTIONS Slim Final
Varying of
Varying of
1- Considering the above assumtpions of FCFF, growth rate and WACC, the Equity value is
In fact, Equity value per share is above the market price by 4.59 AED reperesenting 162%
2- Regarding Senistivity Analysis of parameters of high Growth Period
As we can see in the Table A : MIN Equity Value : 6.5 AED ( g : 15.74% & Wacc 6.02%) & M
More that by increasing or decreasing the growth rate by 100 Basis point ( 1%) , the equit
In the other hand, Equity value Change by 0.1 AED per share when we increase/decrease
===> There's no high sensitivity/change of Equity value And variation in WACC and Grow
No significant change compared to the baseline scenario + 1.01 AED/-0.91 AED Vs B
Year 1
FCFF 1,336,704
WACC 4.52%
PV 1,278,848
Terminal Value
Discount Rate
NPV of Terminal Value
NPV (includes '000) 103,748,330
Market value of Debt 7,301,199.00
Equity Value 96,447,131
Outstanding shares 13,014,300
Equity value (AED) 7.41
y Analysis Using Excel Function ( What If Analysis Data Table): Varying growth rate of high g
Analysis Using Excel Function ( What If Analysis Data Table): Varying growth rate of stable
ove assumtpions of FCFF, growth rate and WACC, the Equity value is much higher than the market capitalisation
per share is above the market price by 4.59 AED reperesenting 162% of the market share price
ty Analysis of parameters of high Growth Period
Table A : MIN Equity Value : 6.5 AED ( g : 15.74% & Wacc 6.02%) & MAX Equity Value : 8.43 AED ( g: 21.74 % & W
ing or decreasing the growth rate by 100 Basis point ( 1%) , the equity value change by 0.2 AED per share ( see TA
quity value Change by 0.1 AED per share when we increase/decrease WACC by 50 Basis point (0.5%) ( See TAB A.2)
sensitivity/change of Equity value And variation in WACC and Growth Rate of high growth period
hange compared to the baseline scenario + 1.01 AED/-0.91 AED Vs Base line Scenario 7.41 AED despite +/- 3% in
value is strongly linked to stable period parameters ( g & WACC) : Tab. B shows the strong impact of changes in
sis Shows that in worst case scenario : estimated Equity value is higher than the stock price
high growth period ( g : 15.74% and WACC : 6.02% ) Equity value is : 6.02 AED higher than the market price ( 2.8
table period ( g : 0.57% and WACC : 6.99% ) Equity value is : 4.06 higher than the market price ( 2.82 AED)
High Growth Phase Transition Phase
2 3 4 5
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
18.740% 18.740% 13% 7.62%
3,818,078 4,533,597 5,131,231 5,522,458
2,785,052 3,306,979 3,742,917 4,028,293
973,778 320,278 339,815 361,903
-200,041 -101,245 -311,533 -212,694
2 3 4 5
2,011,315 3,087,946 3,714,635 3,879,084
4.52% 4.52% 4.85% 5.17%
1,840,972 2,704,085 3,102,480 3,080,541
wth rate of high growth period and WACC of high growth period
Stable Period
1.57% 2.07% 2.57% 3.07%
market capitalisation
impact of changes in Growth rate and WACC of stable period on the estimation of Equity Value
6
3,959,634 *FCFF = EBITDA - CAPEX - Change in NWC
5.49%
2,980,745
117,910,016
0.753
88,760,658
5.49%
0.0032
21.74% TAB A
6.50 MIN 0.21
8.43 MAX #VALUE!
7.41 Baseline #VALUE!
-0.91 #VALUE!
1.01 #VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
3.57% TAB B
4.06 MIN 1.23
57.73 MAX #VALUE!
7.41 Baseline #VALUE!
#VALUE!
-3.35 #VALUE!
50.32 #VALUE!
#VALUE!
and decline linearly to 2020 16.7% 5.6%
heet 'Estimte EBITDA margin' and then estimate the future revenues based on 'g'
ate EBITDA
stimated seperately
ate Change in NWC'
FCFF
WACC
PV
Terminal Value As onYear End 2020
Discount Rate
PV of Terminal Value
NPV (includes '000)
Market value of Debt
Equity Value
Outstanding shares
Equity value (AED)
Sensitivity Analysis: Varying growth rate of high growth period and WACC of
Sensitivity Analysis: Varying growth rate of high growth period and WACC of
Year 1 2
1,336,704 2,011,315
4.52% 4.52%
1,278,848 1,840,972
103,748,330
7,301,199.00
96,447,131 High Growth Rate
13,014,300
7.41
3 4 5
3,087,946 3,714,635 3,879,084
4.52% 4.85% 5.17%
2,704,085 3,102,480 3,080,541
7.41
igh growth Rate (2015-2017)
Stable Phase
6
2020F
2.07% *Insert the same rate 2014-2017 and decline linearly to 2020
5,636,580 * Insert Total rev 2014 using the sheet 'Estimte EBITDA margin' and then estimate
4,111,537 *Use the EBITDA Margin to estimate EBITDA
369,503 * Use these Capital exp, which I estimated seperately
-217,600 *copy these numbers from 'Estimate Change in NWC'
6
3,959,634 *FCFF = EBITDA - CAPEX - Change in NWC
5.49%
2,980,745
117,910,016
0.753
88,760,658
5.49%
0.0032
21.74%
cline linearly to 2020 16.7% 5.6%
Estimte EBITDA margin' and then estimate the future revenues based on 'g'
ed seperately
ange in NWC'
Historical individual revenue components
AED'000
Revenues 2011 2012
Base rent 1,079,902 1,185,957
Net Turnover 121,679 272,187
Service and other charges 152,099 194,419
Other rental income 167,309 272,186.88
Total Rental revenue 1,520,989 1,944,192
NOTES TO SHARE
Using data obtained from EMG Financials, Rental revenue was decomposed into Base rent (60
Since Rental Revenue comprises the majority of revenues, Rental revenue has been used as th
1. Base rent: For this line item, an XX growth rate has been found to be
2. Net Turnover: The Net Turnover revenue was grown by XX% because it re
3. Service Income and Other RentaRevenues were grown for Service Income and Other Rental
Post 2017:
We assume that the high growth rate used from 2015-2017 will decrease linearly to a stable gr
The reason is that individual revenue components will grow to high amounts that will seem un
The XX% is an estimate of the growth rate of an average REIT firm in relatively more mature ec
posed into Base rent (60%), Net Turnover (14%), Service and other income (11%) and Other rental income (15%). :
nue has been used as the growth driver of the revenue projections. An XX growth rate was found to be appropriate
te has been found to be appropriate because it reflects the average of the historical growth rate of XX% found and th
wn by XX% because it reflects the average of theXX% historical growth rate for this item and a growth rate of 6% aris
ncome and Other Rental Income at their historical growth rates
ase linearly to a stable growth rate of XX%.
mounts that will seem unrealistic and hence, the projections will not be realistic.
latively more mature economies of the world such as the US and Western Europe. The following provides the finding
Weights
65%
35%
2.07%
hted average
verage as the long term growth rate for year 2020 in the sheet 'Estimate DCF'
income (15%). :
d to be appropriate for 2015-2017. The underlying assumptions have been incorporated into the analysis from 2015-2
of XX% found and the 7% escalation that EMG states that they will increase their base rent revenue by each year.
owth rate of 6% arising from increase of tourism and increase in household spending from 2015-2018.
provides the finding procedure:
into the analysis from 2015-2017
ent revenue by each year.
m 2015-2018.
AED'000 2011 2012 2013
Total Revenues 1,524,595 1,949,574 2,395,283
Operating expenses 354,229 361,948 436,834
Sales and marketing expenses 25,340 39,432 63,752
Depreciation 315,345 314,146 307,011
General and administrative expenses 108,292 102,383 155,378
Interest costs 458,012 400,842 332,869
Net Income 263,377 730,823 1,099,439
Current liabilities
Due to related parties -
Interest bearing loans and borrowings- short term portio 180,000
Accounts Payable and accruals 335,605
Advances and security deposits 448,942
Retentions payable -
Deferred Income 376,497
Total current liabilities 1,341,044
Notes:
CA excludes Cash and CL exludes interest bearing loans
Capital Structure
WD 16.59%
WE 83.41%
D/E 0.20
Year MV Debt
2014 7,301,199
*MV debt is assumed equal to BV
*Use the sheet 'Bal Sheet' to find
NOTES
Unlevered Beta The beta was calculated by the Bottom-Up method because EMG
Following that, a 5-year (60 observations) regression of the com
Levered Beta The levered beta was found using Hamada’s equation
Stable phase
1.64%
4.60%
N/A
1
44.4%
55.60%
0.80
6.24%
4.56%
5.49%
MV equity
36700326
*MV equity is Price*Number of shares
*price: 2.82
*Number of shares: 13014300
Βlev
1.2
1.07
1.13
0.36
d by the Bottom-Up method because EMG is too young for a regression analysis based beta to be valid and because regression
(60 observations) regression of the comparable companies was carried out and consequently, the regression betas were unlev
ound using Hamada’s equation
Source
10-year US Treasury Bond (Feb 1 2015)
Geometric average of S&P 500 – US 10 year T-bond returns from 1928-2014
Company Market Data; Capital structure of average REIT firm in US and Western Europe
Wd
0.17
mber of shares
D/E
139.32%
82.86%
123.40%
109.39%
se EMG is too young for a regression analysis based beta to be valid and because regression betas reflect past records. To calcu
e comparable companies was carried out and consequently, the regression betas were unlevered using the corresponding D/E
βlevered: βunlevered(1+[(1-t)D/E)
t = 40%
ern Europe
We D/E
0.83 0.20
ion betas reflect past records. To calculate the Bottom-Up beta, companies were shortlisted based on type of operations, occu
unlevered using the corresponding D/E ratio of each firm. The average unlevered betas of the comparable companies was then
ype of operations, occupancy rate, market cap and leverage.
ble companies was then calculated.
EMG’s Historical and Forecasted Statement of Financial Position
AED 000
Assets
Non current
PPE
Investment in properties
Investment in subsidiaries
Total Non-current assets
Current Assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Advances and prepayments
Due from related parties
Bank balances and cash
Total current assets
Total Assets