Subjective logic

Subjective logic is a type of probabilistic logic that explicitly takes epistemic uncertainty and source trust
into account. In general, subjective logic is suitable for modeling and analysing situations involving
uncertainty and relatively unreliable sources.[1][2][3] For example, it can be used for modeling and
analysing trust networks and Bayesian networks.

Arguments in subjective logic are subjective opinions about state variables which can take values from a
domain (aka state space), where a state value can be thought of as a proposition which can be true or false.
A binomial opinion applies to a binary state variable, and can be represented as a Beta PDF (Probability
Density Function). A multinomial opinion applies to a state variable of multiple possible values, and can be
represented as a Dirichlet PDF (Probability Density Function). Through the correspondence between
opinions and Beta/Dirichlet distributions, subjective logic provides an algebra for these functions. Opinions
are also related to the belief representation in Dempster–Shafer belief theory.

A fundamental aspect of the human condition is that nobody can ever determine with absolute certainty
whether a proposition about the world is true or false. In addition, whenever the truth of a proposition is
expressed, it is always done by an individual, and it can never be considered to represent a general and
objective belief. These philosophical ideas are directly reflected in the mathematical formalism of subjective
logic.

Subjective opinions
Subjective opinions express subjective beliefs about the truth of state values/propositions with degrees of
epistemic uncertainty, and can explicitly indicate the source of belief whenever required. An opinion is
usually denoted as where is the source of the opinion, and is the state variable to which the
opinion applies. The variable can take values from a domain (also called state space) e.g. denoted as .
The values of a domain are assumed to be exhaustive and mutually disjoint, and sources are assumed to
have a common semantic interpretation of a domain. The source and variable are attributes of an opinion.
Indication of the source can be omitted whenever irrelevant.

Binomial opinions

Let be a state value in a binary domain. A binomial opinion about the truth of state value is the ordered
quadruple where:

: belief mass is the belief that is true.

: disbelief mass is the belief that is false.
: uncertainty is the amount of uncommitted belief, also interpreted as epistemic
mass uncertainty.
: base rate is the prior probability in the absence of belief or disbelief.

These components satisfy and . The characteristics of various

opinion classes are listed below.
An
where is an absolute opinion which is equivalent to Boolean TRUE,
opinion
where is an absolute opinion which is equivalent to Boolean FALSE,
where is a dogmatic opinion which is equivalent to a traditional
probability,
where is an uncertain opinion which expresses degrees of epistemic
uncertainty, and
where is a vacuous opinion which expresses total epistemic uncertainty
or total vacuity of belief.

The projected probability of a binomial opinion is defined as .

Binomial opinions can be represented on an equilateral triangle as shown below. A point inside the triangle
represents a triple. The b,d,u-axes run from one edge to the opposite vertex indicated by the
Belief, Disbelief or Uncertainty label. For example, a strong positive opinion is represented by a point
towards the bottom right Belief vertex. The base rate, also called the prior probability, is shown as a red
pointer along the base line, and the projected probability, , is formed by projecting the opinion onto the
base, parallel to the base rate projector line. Opinions about three values/propositions X, Y and Z are
visualized on the triangle to the left, and their equivalent Beta PDFs (Probability Density Functions) are
visualized on the plots to the right. The numerical values and verbal qualitative descriptions of each opinion
are also shown.

The Beta PDF is normally denoted as where and are its two strength parameters.
The Beta PDF of a binomial opinion is the function

where is the non-informative prior weight,

also called a unit of evidence,[4] normally set to .

Multinomial opinions
Let be a state variable which can take state values . A multinomial opinion over is the
composite tuple , where is a belief mass distribution over the possible state values
of , is the uncertainty mass, and is the prior (base rate) probability distribution over the possible
state values of . These parameters satisfy and as well as
.

Trinomial opinions can be simply visualised as points inside a tetrahedron, but opinions with dimensions
larger than trinomial do not lend themselves to simple visualisation.

Dirichlet PDFs are normally denoted as where is a probability distribution over the state
values of , and are the strength parameters. The Dirichlet PDF of a multinomial opinion
is the function where the strength parameters are given by

, where is the non-informative prior weight, also called a unit of

evidence,[4] normally set to the number of classes.

Operators
Most operators in the table below are generalisations of binary logic and probability operators. For example
addition is simply a generalisation of addition of probabilities. Some operators are only meaningful for
combining binomial opinions, and some also apply to multinomial opinion.[5] Most operators are binary,
but complement is unary, and abduction is ternary. See the referenced publications for mathematical details
of each operator.

Subjective logic operators, notations, and corresponding propositional/binary logic operators

Subjective logic operator Operator notation Propositional/binary logic operator

Addition[6] Union

Subtraction[6] Difference

Multiplication[7] Conjunction / AND

Division[7] Unconjunction / UN-AND

Comultiplication[7] Disjunction / OR

Codivision[7] Undisjunction / UN-OR

Complement[2][3] NOT

Deduction[1] Modus ponens

Subjective Bayes' theorem[1][8] Contraposition

Abduction[1] Modus tollens

Transitivity / discounting[1] n.a.

Cumulative fusion [1] n.a.

Constraint fusion[1] n.a.

Transitive source combination can be denoted in a compact or expanded form. For example, the transitive
trust path from analyst/source via source to the variable can be denoted as in compact
form, or as in expanded form. Here, expresses that has some trust/distrust in
source , whereas expresses that has an opinion about the state of variable which is given as
an advice to . The expanded form is the most general, and corresponds directly to the way subjective
logic expressions are formed with operators.

Properties
In case the argument opinions are equivalent to Boolean TRUE or FALSE, the result of any subjective
logic operator is always equal to that of the corresponding propositional/binary logic operator. Similarly,
when the argument opinions are equivalent to traditional probabilities, the result of any subjective logic
operator is always equal to that of the corresponding probability operator (when it exists).

In case the argument opinions contain degrees of uncertainty, the operators involving multiplication and
division (including deduction, abduction and Bayes' theorem) will produce derived opinions that always
have correct projected probability but possibly with approximate variance when seen as Beta/Dirichlet
PDFs.[1] All other operators produce opinions where the projected probabilities and the variance are always
analytically correct.

Different logic formulas that traditionally are equivalent in propositional logic do not necessarily have equal
opinions. For example in general although the distributivity of conjunction over
disjunction, expressed as , holds in binary propositional logic. This is no
surprise as the corresponding probability operators are also non-distributive. However, multiplication is
distributive over addition, as expressed by . De Morgan's laws are also satisfied as
e.g. expressed by .

Subjective logic allows very efficient computation of mathematically complex models. This is possible by
approximation of the analytically correct functions. While it is relatively simple to analytically multiply two
Beta PDFs in the form of a joint Beta PDF, anything more complex than that quickly becomes intractable.
When combining two Beta PDFs with some operator/connective, the analytical result is not always a Beta
PDF and can involve hypergeometric series. In such cases, subjective logic always approximates the result
as an opinion that is equivalent to a Beta PDF.

Applications
Subjective logic is applicable when the situation to be analysed is characterised by considerable epistemic
uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge. In this way, subjective logic becomes a probabilistic logic for
epistemic-uncertain probabilities. The advantage is that uncertainty is preserved throughout the analysis and
is made explicit in the results so that it is possible to distinguish between certain and uncertain conclusions.

The modelling of trust networks and Bayesian networks are typical applications of subjective logic.

Subjective trust networks

Subjective trust networks can be modelled with a combination of the transitivity and fusion operators. Let
express the referral trust edge from to , and let express the belief edge from to . A
subjective trust network can for example be expressed as as
illustrated in the figure below.
The indices 1, 2 and 3 indicate the chronological order in which the trust edges and advice are formed.
Thus, given the set of trust edges with index 1, the origin trustor receives advice from and , and is
thereby able to derive belief in variable . By expressing each trust edge and belief edge as an opinion, it
is possible for to derive belief in expressed as .

Trust networks can express the reliability of information sources, and can be used to determine subjective
opinions about variables that the sources provide information about.

Evidence-based subjective logic (EBSL)[4] describes an alternative trust-network computation, where the
transitivity of opinions (discounting) is handled by applying weights to the evidence underlying the
opinions.

Subjective Bayesian networks

In the Bayesian network below, and are parent variables and is the child variable. The analyst must
learn the set of joint conditional opinions in order to apply the deduction operator and derive the
marginal opinion on the variable . The conditional opinions express a conditional relationship
between the parent variables and the child variable.

The deduced opinion is computed as . The joint evidence opinion can be

computed as the product of independent evidence opinions on and , or as the joint product of partially
dependent evidence opinions.

Subjective networks
The combination of a subjective trust network and a subjective Bayesian network is a subjective network.
The subjective trust network can be used to obtain from various sources the opinions to be used as input
opinions to the subjective Bayesian network, as illustrated in the figure below.

Traditional Bayesian network typically do not take into account the reliability of the sources. In subjective
networks, the trust in sources is explicitly taken into account.

References
1. A. Jøsang. Subjective Logic: A formalism for reasoning under uncertainty (https://books.goog
le.com/books?id=nqRlDQAAQBAJ). Springer Verlag, 2016
2. A. Jøsang. Artificial Reasoning with Subjective Logic. Proceedings of the Second Australian
Workshop on Commonsense Reasoning, Perth 1997. PDF (http://www.unik.no/people/josan
g/papers/Jos1997-AWCR.pdf)
3. A. Jøsang. A Logic for Uncertain Probabilities. International Journal of Uncertainty,
Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems. 9(3), pp. 279–311, June 2001. PDF (http://www.
unik.no/people/josang/papers/Jos2001-IJUFKS.pdf)
4. Skoric, B.; Zannone, N. (2016). "Flow-based reputation with uncertainty: Evidence-Based
Subjective Logic". International Journal of Information Security. 15 (4): 381–402.
arXiv:1402.3319 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.3319). doi:10.1007/s10207-015-0298-5 (https://d
oi.org/10.1007%2Fs10207-015-0298-5).
5. A. Jøsang. Probabilistic Logic Under Uncertainty. Proceedings of Computing: The Australian
Theory Symposium (CATS'07), Ballarat, January 2007. PDF (http://www.unik.no/people/josa
ng/papers/Jos2007-CATS.pdf)
6. D. McAnally and A. Jøsang. Addition and Subtraction of Beliefs. Proceedings of the
conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based
Systems (IPMU2004), Perugia, July, 2004.
7. A. Jøsang, and D. McAnally. Multiplication and Comultiplication of Beliefs. International
Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 38/1, pp. 19–51, 2004.
 8. A. Jøsang. Generalising Bayes' Theorem in Subjective Logic (http://folk.uio.no/josang/paper
s/Josang2016-MFI.pdf). 2016 IEEE International Conference on Multisensor Fusion and
Integration for Intelligent Systems (MFI 2016), Baden-Baden, Germany, 2016.

External links
Subjective Logic (https://www.mn.uio.no/ifi/english/people/aca/josang/sl/) by Audun Jøsang
Subjective Logic Experimentation Framework (https://sourceforge.net/projects/slef/) based
on Subjective Logic Operators in Trust Assessment: An Empirical Study by F. Cerutti, L. M.
Kaplan, T. J. Norman, N. Oren, and A. Toniolo

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