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Calculadora Market VaR Montecarlo
Calculadora Market VaR Montecarlo
© Ramon Alfonso
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#5 #6 #7 #8 #9 # 10 # 11 # 12
trial trial trial trial trial trial trial trial
0.70322 0.11900 0.32701 0.62075 0.54981 0.08492 0.46448 0.80563
0.53369 -1.18000 -0.44818 0.30746 0.12518 -1.37274 -0.08916 0.86189
0.20674 -0.13600 0.01036 0.16149 0.12504 -0.17455 0.08217 0.27238
1.22966 0.87284 1.01042 1.17526 1.13319 0.83984 1.08564 1.31308
122.96598 87.28432 101.04174 117.52624 113.31902 83.98371 108.56382 131.30829
27.96598 0.00000 6.04174 22.52624 18.31902 0.00000 13.56382 36.30829
0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484
25.30466 0.00000 5.46679 20.38258 16.57573 0.00000 12.27305 32.85310
1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
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# 13 # 14 # 15 # 16 # 17 # 18 # 19 # 20
trial trial trial trial trial trial trial trial
0.66801 0.33808 0.90443 0.88992 0.08166 0.95625 0.63975 0.18276
0.43441 -0.41771 1.30721 1.22611 -1.39402 1.70878 0.35779 -0.90489
0.18688 0.01646 0.36144 0.34522 -0.17880 0.44176 0.17156 -0.08098
1.20549 1.01659 1.43540 1.41230 0.83627 1.55544 1.18715 0.92221
120.54861 101.65949 143.53981 141.23025 83.62700 155.54361 118.71526 92.22133
25.54861 6.65949 48.53981 46.23025 0.00000 60.54361 23.71526 0.00000
0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484
23.11734 6.02575 43.92064 41.83086 0.00000 54.78213 21.45846 0.00000
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
l
# 165 # 166 # 167 # 168 # 169 # 170 # 171 # 172
trial trial trial trial trial trial trial trial
0.37935 0.06713 0.02930 0.43681 0.17804 0.59092 0.22413 0.93236
-0.30718 -1.49749 -1.89115 -0.15906 -0.92286 0.22991 -0.75833 1.49363
0.03856 -0.19950 -0.27823 0.06819 -0.08457 0.14598 -0.05167 0.39873
1.03932 0.81914 0.75712 1.07057 0.91891 1.15717 0.94965 1.48992
103.93168 81.91412 75.71234 107.05665 91.89064 115.71748 94.96469 148.99246
8.93168 0.00000 0.00000 12.05665 0.00000 20.71748 0.00000 53.99246
0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484 0.90484
8.08172 0.00000 0.00000 10.90931 0.00000 18.74595 0.00000 48.85440
1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Percentil V. CARTERA
0.01 -2.50
0.05 -1.55 VaR 95% confianza -1.55
0.10 -1.13
4.42
-5.32 Distribución de pérdidas y ganancias estimados
249
9.74
80
Frecuencia 70
0 60
0 50
0 40
0
30
0
20
67
2 10
5 0
79
LEY NORMAL --> MOD. VARIANZA-COVARIANZA MOD. MONTECARLO o MOD SI
tambien MOD. MONTECARLO o MOD SIM. HISTORICA NUNCA: NUNCA: VARIANZA-CO
Acciones
Indices bolsa
Titulos liquidos de bonos y obligaciones Tesoro
Titulos liquidos bonos y obligaciones Corporativos
Precios grandes materias primas
Divisas grandes ej EURUSD.---
K
Chart Title
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
12/31/2020 1/31/2021 3/3/2021
MOD. MONTECARLO o MOD SIM. HISTORICA
UNCA: NUNCA: VARIANZA-COVARIANZA
VIQ SOLUTIONS
12/31/2020 12.3
1/7/2021 12.3 0
Opciones 1/14/2021 12.3 0
Productos capital garantizado 1/21/2021 12.6 0.02409755
Productos baja liquidez 1/28/2021 12.6 0
2/4/2021 12.6 0
2/11/2021 12.6 0
2/18/2021 11.9 -0.05715841
2/25/2021 11.9 0
3/4/2021 11.9 0
Chart Title 3/11/2021 11.9 0
3/18/2021 11.9 0
3/25/2021 13 0.08841096
4/1/2021 13 0
4/8/2021 13 0
4/15/2021 13 0
DISTRIBUCION SUCESOS
Valor Nº Sucesos
0 20
1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
100
5
99
4
98
3
97
2
96
1 Pérfil Perdidas y Ganacias
95 Opción Call
0
94
0
93
0 K = 95
92
0
91 93 94 95 96 97
0
90
0