Fertecon

Nitrogen Report: Urea

July 6, 2023

Suzie Skipper, Senior Editor Fertilizers, suzie.skipper@ihsmarkit.com

Jeff McDonald, Senior Editor Urea, jeffrey.mcdonald@spglobal.com

Headlines
‒ AG sells a further 30,000 mt granular at $312/mt FOB for August shipment
‒ Vietnam cargo sells for $310-320/mt FOB; North African spot values rise
‒ Brazil heads higher up to $325/mt CFR; Indian tender likely 2H June

Outlook
Spot values look set to be underpinned or rise further in July/2H August provided both India and Brazil step up for
significant quantities. China remains the wild card as it is unclear how much it will be able to export from 2H July.

Fertecon Price Service

Urea: Key prices
July 6 June 29 June 22
Urea – fob Black Sea, prilled ($/mt) 250-270 240-250 230-240
Urea – fob Middle East (excl US), granular ($/mt) 312 299-312 253-265
Urea – fob Egypt, granular ($/mt) 360 340-350 312-330
Urea – fob NOLA, granular ($/st) 295 285-317 275-330
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.
Urea: Key prices chart
Black Sea prilled FOB Urea NOLA mt FOB
1200
1000
800
$/mt

600
400
200
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Data compiled July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2023 S&P Global.

Pricing Report
 Urea price indications (all prices in US$)
July 6 June 29 June 22
BULK UREA prilled
Baltic Sea fob 250-270 240-250 230-240
Black Sea fob 250-270 240-250 230-240
Middle East fob 312 299-312 253-265
SE Asia fob 305-320 305-320 300-325
China fob 300-310 290-300 280-290
China domestic Shandong ex-works (RMB/mt) 2160-2250 2050-2160 2020-2100
India cfr 280-285 280-285 280-285
BULK UREA granular
Baltic fob 270-300 250-290 235-255
Black Sea fob 270-310 250-300 235-270
Middle East fob excl US 312 299-312 253-265
Middle East fob US netbacks 285-288 274-312 263-327
Middle East fob Brazil netbacks 277-305 267-295 255-268
Middle East fob 277-312 267-312 253-327
Caribbean fob 275-300 265-324 255-339
SE Asia fob 310-320 305-320 300-325
North Africa fob 350-360 340-350 300-330
Algeria fob 350-360 340-350 300-330
Egypt fob 360 340-350 312-330
China fob 315-320 300-310 290-320
SE Asia cfr 325-345 325-345 325-345
Brazil cfr 300-325 290-315 280-290
France fca (€/mt) 350 330-335 310-315
US st NOLA 295 285-317 275-330
FERTECON PRICE DEFINITION
^ all business * no recent known business ** price adjusted ~ indicative
NB: All prices refer to most recent concluded business or latest competitive offers. Prices are net of credit or other terms.
NB: The cfr Brazil price and US ston NOLA do not include sales of Chinese material
The full history of Fertecon’s urea prices is available to view and download by clicking here.
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.

Freight
Route Cargo size (mt) Latest rate
China – East Coast India 40-50,000 14-16
Black Sea – Brazil 25-30,000 40
Black Sea – West Coast Mexico 20-25,000 60-65
Baltic – Brazil (excluding St Pete) 25-30,000 40
Baltic – West Coast Mexico (excluding St Pete) 25-30,000 60-65
Algeria – Brazil 25-30,000 25-30
Middle East – West Coast India 40,000 12-13
Middle East – Thailand bulk 25-30,000 25-30
Middle East – NOLA 40-45,000 32-35
Middle East - Brazil 40,000 20-23
Mesaieed – Brazil 40,000 22-24
As of July 6, 2023.
Note: All rates indicated are based on averages. Exact rates will depend on port loading and discharge rates.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.

Fertecon’s urea prices are available to analyze and download immediately after publishing via this link.

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Fertecon Tender Service
Urea: Recent and active tenders
Country Holder Product Metric tons Tender close Shipments Remarks
Indonesia PIHC Urea G 30,000 May 4 End May/early June Awarded at $337.50/mt FOB to Infinite
Commodities
Indonesia PIHC Urea P 30-40,000 May 4 End May/early June Awarded at $337/mt FOB to various
traders
Central Incofe Urea G 10,000 May 16 June Awarded in the low $330s/mt CFR to a
America trader
Central Incofe Urea P 12,000 May 16 June Awarded at $345/mt CFR to a trader
America
Taiwan TFC Urea P 6,000 May 30 June Indicated at around $280/mt CFR from
mainland China
India RCF Urea P or G 580,000 June 12 Shipment by July 17 Lowest L1s by Sun at $284.90/mt CFR
ECI and Samsung at $279.70/mt CFR
WCI
Central Incofe Urea G 10-11,500 June 13-14 Shipment 1H July High $290s/mt CFR
America
Central Incofe Urea P 9,500 June 13-14 Shipment 1H July High $280s/mt CFR
America
Philippines Atlas Urea P 6,000 Jun 19-20 Shipment by July 20 Awarded at $314/mt CFR
to Sangi and Davao
ports
As of July 6, 2023.
Note: G = granular P = prilled b = Bagged *sales tender.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.

Analysis
The global urea market took a breather this week after a busy June which saw prices strengthen across the board. Spot
values remained firm at all FOB hubs with CFR/FCA levels also inching higher.
Talk of a new Indian tender also perked up market sentiment. The Department of Fertilizers is understood to be meeting
to discuss imports on 7 July. A tender is expected in the second half of July for shipment in August/early September. India
is expected to buy between 1-1.2 million mt. If India tenders later, we could see this large buyer compete with Brazil for
tonnes as it enters its peak import season in August.
On the sales side, trade was essentially thin given the Eid celebration across the globe. A 30,000 mt cargo of granular
urea, linked to Saudi producer Sabic, was reported sold at $312/mt FOB for August shipment most likely to Australia
underpinning the high end of sales last week.
North African sellers sold a few cargoes this week all at higher numbers. Sellers look comfortably sold out for July
shipment after a spate of sales which started in the second half of June. Algeria’s AOA is understood to have sold two
small cargoes to Europe at around $350/mt FOB for July shipment, followed by 20,000 mt sold at $360/mt FOB for
August. Egyptian values also headed higher as traders continued to buy small cargoes, likely for Europe. Kima sold 7,000
mt at $360/mt FOB Egypt and this was quickly followed by Mopco selling (after Fertecon’s 16:30 UK deadline and below
the 6,000 mt minimum) two lots of 5,000 mt at $360/mt FOB and $370/mt FOB respectively for end July shipment.
Australian buyers have continued to seek out spot tonnes from the Middle East as contract supply from key Southeast
Asian sellers has dried up due to various issues. This week a 40,000 mt Vietnamese granular cargo was reported sold to
a trader at $310-320/mt FOB for July shipment. Sales from other Southeast Asian producers remained non-existent again
this week although perhaps the end is in sight. Malaysia’s Petronas restarted both its urea units this week but is sold out
for spot exports throughout July. In Brunei, BFI is understood to be still offline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s PIHC is expected
to start exporting again 2H July/August.
Chinese spot prices also ticked higher with prills moving up $10/mt to $300-310/mt FOB and granular rising to $315-
320/mt FOB. Export capability from China once the domestic season dies down is the key question. Reports of longer

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custom’s inspection times of up 30 days or potentially stricter export controls were circulating this week as export tonnes
begin to filter through to ports.
In the US, the fertilizer market overall was quiet as the Independence Day holiday fell midweek in the country this year,
with many participants taking time out of the market as a result. Barge trade at NOLA this week was unsurprisingly thin
with barges for the prompt to July shipping timeframe assessed at a flat $295/st FOB this week, lower on average from
the prior week assessment range of $285-317/st FOB.
Brazilian buyers also began to step into the market as prices started to climb. Offers at $290/mt CFR fast disappeared,
with buyers paying between $300-325/mt CFR this week as offers raced higher to $330-340/mt CFR by late Thursday.
While prices remained strong this week, much will depend on fresh demand emerging from several key markets. If, as
expected India comes out with a tender for August shipment, Brazil also steps in to catch up on imports and other Latin
American buyers tender, we could see global prices continue to tick higher. On the downside, we are expecting to see
fresh cargoes from Southeast Asia and China competing for sales in late July/August.

Markets
France
French spot prices have risen this week on firmer values in the global market with the majority of sellers indicating
€350/mt FCA French Atlantic ports. This is up from sales reported last week at €330-335/mt FCA for July-December
shipment at sellers’ option. Buying activity is however slow as farmers concentrate on the harvests.

Reported urea shipments - France

Origin Vessel ‘000 mt Port Arrival
March 124.7
April 102.1
May 22.3
Spain Marie 2.3 Rouen 09-Jun
Netherlands Elsborg 3.3 Bordeaux 17-Jun
Algeria Masha D 8.0 Nantes 20-Jun
Egypt Tiara 5.0 Bayonne 22-Jun
June 18.6
UK Wilson Gijon 3.0 Le Havre 02-Jul
Algeria Louisa Bolten 20.1 Rouen 01-Jul
Egypt MBC Daisy 8.3 Rouen 06-July
Egypt Frisian Octa 6.5 St Malo 08-Jul
Algeria Sevkettin Sonay 11.4 Bordeaux 09-July
July 23.1
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.

Turkey
Turkish urea imports January-May have more than doubled to 1.67 million mt, up from just 824,000 mt in the first five
months of 2022. Russian imports leapt to 205,000 mt, up from just 6,000 mt a year ago, while imports from Egypt climbed
263% to 479,000 mt. Imports from Oman, which are possibly originally of Iranian origin, were also up at 786,000 mt, a
jump of 63% year on year.
Turkey urea imports (‘000 mt)
Origin May-2022 May-2023 Jan-May 2022 Jan-May 2023 % chg

Oman 71.0 188.0 482.0 786.0 63.1%

Egypt 1.0 91.0 132.0 479.0 262.9%

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Russia 0.0 37.0 6.0 205.0 3316.7%

Malaysia 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.0 -

Iran 2.0 10.0 64.0 38.0 -40.6%

Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.0 -

Turkmenistan 8.0 11.0 49.0 24.0 -51.0%

Qatar 44.0 0.0 44.0 22.0 -50.0%

Bahrain 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 -

Others 3.0 3.0 47.0 28.0 -40.4%

Total 129.0 340.0 824.0 1,667.0 102.3%

As of July 6, 2023.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.

© 2023 S&P Global.

Southern Asia
India
India’s Department of Fertilizers is understood to have postponed its July 4 meeting to discuss further imports until July 7.
There are suggestions that India, most likely IPL, could potentially announce a new purchase tender in the second half of
July for August/early September shipment. Traders expect India to buy around 1-1.2 million mt.
Higher domestic urea production saw urea imports in the first five months of the year fall by 45% to 1.96 million mt
compared to 3.59 million mt in January-May 2022. Omani imports dominated, accounting for a third of imports at 639,000
mt, marking a 47% hike on year. Chinese imports were also markedly higher at 289,000 mt, up from just 82,000 mt a year
earlier.
India urea imports (‘000 mt)
Origin Apr-2022 Apr-2023 Jan-Apr 2022 Jan-Apr 2023 % chg

Oman 52.0 133.0 436.0 639.0 46.6%

China 19.0 7.0 82.0 289.0 252.4%

Russia 46.0 - 295.0 173.0 -41.4%

Qatar 41.0 75.0 363.0 171.0 -52.9%

Finland 103.0 - 255.0 153.0 -40.0%

Algeria 33.0 - 204.0 144.0 -29.4%

United Arab Emirates 3.0 58.0 328.0 113.0 -65.5%

Nigeria - - 169.0 92.0 -45.6%

Saudi Arabia 1.0 - 301.0 49.0 -83.7%

Others 54.0 6.0 1,155.0 137.0 -88.1%

Total 352.0 279.0 3,588.0 1,960.0 -45.4%

As of July 6, 2023.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.

© 2023 S&P Global.

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OQT has nominated its sixth vessel the MV Genoa which will load out of Tuapse in the Black Sea.
The following vessels are understood to have been nominated against RCF’s June 12 tender for shipment by July 17.

RCF June 12 tender vessel nominations

Likely
Supplier Vessel Quantity (t) Discharge Port
Origin

Samsung AG MV Nord Sound 45,000 Deendayal

Agricommodities AG MV Top Grace 40,000 Mundra
OQ Trading Oman MV Jal Kalpavriksh 40,000 Rozi
OQ Trading Oman MV Top Fortune 40,000 Adani Hazira
OQ Trading Oman MV Jal Kalpataru 40,000 Adani Dahej
OQ Trading Oman MV Incredible Blue 40,000 Mundra
OQ Trading Baltic MV Tuo Fu 6 50,000 Mundra
OQ Trading Black Sea MV Genoa 50,000 Jaigarh
Aditya Birla Baltic MV Star Capoeira 60,000 Tuna
Aditya Birla Baltic MV Panamax Christina 60,000 Pipavav
Sun International China MV Beate Oldendorff 50,000 Paradip
Fertiglobe UAE MV Nord Sound 45,000 Deendayal
Total 560,000

As of July 6, 2023.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.

© 2023 S&P Global.

Southeast Asia
Overall, the market in Southeast Asia remained thinly traded in seasonally slow markets.

Vietnam
Ca Mau is understood to have raised its granular urea offer to around 9,200 VND/kg ($389/mt), up by around 200 VND/kg
since last week. This is in spite of the lack of fresh buying activity as buyers are not expected to re-enter the market until
October fields dry out after the Mekong River flooding. The price is believed to be in line with price levels in northeast
China.

Eastern Asia
Mainland China
Shandong domestic prilled urea prices inched up this week Rmb 2,160-2,250 ex-works, up from Rmb 2,050-2,160 ex-
works last week. While top dressing applications on corn is nearly finished in north China, demand for rice planting is
expected to support prices for the next two weeks.

North America
United States
NOLA urea barges for the prompt to July shipping timeframe are assessed at a flat $295/st FOB this week, lower on
average from the prior week assessment range of $285-317/st FOB.
The US fertilizer market overall was quiet as the Independence Day holiday fell midweek in the country this year, with
many participants taking time out of the market as a result. Barge trade has been thin on all products at NOLA this week,
unsurprisingly.

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 NOLA urea ($ per short ton FOB)
Load timeframe July 6 June 29 June 22
7 Day (Prompt) 295-310 285-317 330-335
30 Day Assessment 295 285-317 275-330
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
© 2023 S&P Global.

Granular Urea NOLA FOB

2021 2022 2023
975

875

775

675
$/st

575

475

375

275

175
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49
Data compiled July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2023 S&P Global.

July barges traded at $295/st FOB this week, while loaded product fetched a $5-15/st premium having sold between
$300-310/st FOB across the past seven days. The September window continues to see interest as well, with a barge deal
this week closing at $290/st FOB.
River terminal urea offers were stable this week in a range of $420-475/st FOB at primary trading hubs along the
Mississippi River and its major tributaries. Side and top dress demand at the tail end of the spring planting season
continues to support current price levels in addition to dwindling inland supplies.
Last year in the late summer, the Mississippi River fell to 40+ year historical low water levels due to drought conditions in
the US, hampering fertilizer barge movement as a result. Market participants are concerned this year could bring similar
logistical woes during a period where fall imports will be crucial in resupplying US stocks. International concerns over a
multi-year sustained El Nino weather pattern are also a factor to watch in the North American ag sector.
Cargoes booked to date for 2022-23 arrival include the following (‘000 mt):

US urea arrivals 2022-23

Supplier/Origin Tonnage Vessel Arrival Port and Notes
July (US customs) 179,000
August (US customs) 152,000
September (US customs) 241,000
October (US customs) 196,000
November (US customs) 527,000
December (US customs) 285,000
January (US customs) 311,000
February (US customs) 608,000
March (US customs) 596,000
April (US customs) 539,000
Algeria 50,000 HSL Nassau 1-May NOLA - Koch

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 US urea arrivals 2022-23
Supplier/Origin Tonnage Vessel Arrival Port and Notes
Russia 27,000 Apageon 1-May NOLA - PhosAgro prills/gran
Trinidad 7,000 Balsa 83 2-May Norfolk - Meherrin
Russia 16,000 SSI Providence 6-May Philadelphia - EuroChem
Algeria 48,000 New London Eagle 8-May NOLA - Koch
Indonesia 27,000 Indigo March 8-May NOLA - Koch
Trinidad 7,000 Balsa 92 8-May NOLA - Ameropa
Trinidad 7,000 Century Melody 10-May Wilmington
Nigeria 40,000 Petrel Bulker 15-May NOLA
Russia 34,000 Sunshine 19-May NOLA - ECO
Nigeria 14,000 Ultra Virtue 19-May NOLA - Indorama
Nigeria 32,000 Alicia 19-May Philadelphia - Dangote
Russia 18,000 Endless Horizon 22-May Charleston - EuroChem
Egypt 50,000 All Star Atlas 22-May NOLA - CHS
Trinidad 5,000 Miranda 22-May Brunswick
Algeria 40,000 Rojen 23-May NOLA - Keytrade
Algeria 49,000 KM Jakarta 25-May Wilmington
Oman 44,000 Attiki SB 30-May NOLA - EuroChem
Canada (est.) 60,000
May (est.) 573,000
Nigeria 42,000 Eleen Sofia 2-Jun NOLA - Koch
Russia 7,000 Endless Horizon 3-Jun Norfolk - EuroChem
Egypt 50,000 Imabari Queen 5-Jun NOLA
Russia 25,000 Meshka 7-Jun Houston, NOLA - EuroChem
Wilmington, Charleston -
Russia 16,000 Magic Seas 8-Jun EuroChem
Nigeria 33,000 Columbia 15-Jun NOLA
Finland 33,000 Zheng Yao 16-Jun NOLA - prilled/gran
Algeria 41,000 CL Luzhou 20-Jun Wilmington
Saudi Arabia (est.) 60,000 TBC June NOLA
Qatar (est.) 60,000 TBC June NOLA
Trinidad (est.) 4,000 TBC June NOLA
Canada (est.) 60,000 TBC
June (est.) 429,000
Total July ‘22 - June ‘23 (est.) 4,636,000
Total July ’21 - June ‘22 4,964,000
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

AOA is shipping its latest Algerian urea cargoes to the USA and Mexico.
Cargoes for the 2023-24 fertilizer year include the following (‘000 mt):

US urea arrivals 2023-24

Supplier/Origin Tonnage Vessel Arrival Port and Notes
Algeria 55,000 Roadrunner Bulker July NOLA
Qatar (est.) 60,000 TBC July NOLA
Trinidad (est.) 4,000 TBC July NOLA
Russia (est.) 40,000 TBC July NOLA/EC
Canada (est.) 60,000 TBC
July (est.) 164,000
Total July ’22 179,000
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

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Latin America
Argentina
Granular urea continues to be indicated at $380/mt CFR duty unpaid.

Reported urea shipments – Argentina

Origin Vessel ‘000 mt Port Arrival
Egypt Dorysia 6.00 San Lorenzo 01-Jun
Qatar Belfuji 8.00 San Lorenzo 03-Jun
Egypt Vola 3.50 San Lorenzo 05-Jun
Egypt Dorysia 6.00 San Lorenzo 15-Jun
Egypt Gat Feeling 8.00 San Lorenzo 16-Jun
Argentina Argenmar Mistral 9.50 San Lorenzo 16-Jun
Finland Montevideo 12.00 San Lorenzo 16-Jun
Tbc Beira 22.00 Nueva Palmira 17-Jun
Argentina Icy Bay 10.00 San Nicolas 19-Jun
Argentina Core Imperial 3.00 Ramalo 22-Jun
Morocco Uni Blossom 4.00 San Lorenzo 24-Jun
Tbc Core Imperial 3.00 Ramallo 02-Jul
Egypt Gat Feeling 5.00 San Lorenzo 14-Jul
Germany Daiwan leader 3.00 San Lorenzo 17-Jul
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2023 S&P Global.

Brazil
Buying interest has perked up this week in Brazil with spot prices moving up higher to around $300-325/mt CFR. Offers
for non-sanctioned granular were heard at between $330-340/mt CFR but there was little liquidity reported at these levels.

Reported urea shipments – Brazil

Vessel ETA Volume Receiver Charterer Origin Port
Panda 01-Jun 21,000 Phosagro Russia Paranaguá
Interlink Nobility 01-Jun 38,500 OCP OCP Morocco Paranaguá
Seal Island 03-Jun 13,000 Various Fertiglobe Algeria Paranaguá
Apolo 05-Jun 31,000 Enbel Iran Paranaguá
Seaglass 08-Jun 22,500 Heringer, Tocantins Eurochem Venezuela Santos
Agia Sofia 08-Jun 10,500 Fertinor Fertipar Russia Barra dos Coqueiros
Agia Valentina 12-Jun 28,500 Fertipar Acron Russia Paranaguá
Ossa 12-Jun 20,000 Mosaic, Yara Fitco Qatar São Francisco Do Sul
Yoga 15-Jun 30,000 Various Ameropa Oman Rio Grande
LB Energy 16-Jun 24,000 Various Enbel Oman Paranaguá
Apolo 16-Jun 32,400 Fertipar Enbel Oman Vitoria
Belfuji 17-Jun 15,400 Tocantins Ameropa Egypt Vitoria
Blue Ionian 18-Jun 16,250 Various Fertbroker China Rio Grande
Evgenia K 21-Jun 21,500 Various Indagro Bahrain Paranaguá
Scorpios Island 22-Jun 22,000 Mosaic, Piratini Fitco Nigeria Rio Grande
Outrider 22-Jun 18,000 Unifertil Comexport Venezuela Rio Grande
Ossa 23-Jun 23,000 Heringer, Piratini Fitco Qatar Rio Grande
Shipka 23-Jun 5,000 Adubos Araguaia Purefert Russia São Francisco Do Sul
Evgenia K 29-Jun 10,000 Yara Indagro Bahrain Rio Grande
Night Hawk 03-Jul 19,500 Tocantins Koch Qatar Aratu
LB Energy 03-Jul 30,000 Various Enbel Oman Rio Grande
Manna 03-Jul 15,000 Fertipar Eurochem Russia Aratu
Night Hawk 05-Jul 25,900 Mosaic Mosaic Qatar Santos
Metsovo 08-Jul 25,000 Mosaic Mosaic Qatar Santos
Nordic Bc Kiel 18-Jul 10,000 Various Sabic Saudi Arabia Rio Grande

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 Reported urea shipments – Brazil
Vessel ETA Volume Receiver Charterer Origin Port
Predator 18-Jul 11,000 Coxilha Coxilha Venezuela Porto Alegre
Manna 22-Jul 9,000 Cibrafertil Eurochem Russia Salvador
Clipper Brunello 22-Jul 24,000 Cibrafertil, Yara Yara Qatar São Francisco Do Sul
Puget Sound 24-Jul 7,000 Fertiglobe Algeria São Francisco Do Sul
Nordic Bc Kiel 25-Jul 10,000 Piratini, Unifertil Sabic Saudi Arabia Porto Alegre
TBN 21-Jul 42,000 CHS CHS Santos
As of June 29, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2023 S&P Global.

Agriculture
The safrinha corn harvest reached 20%, with high yields and delays for unloading cargoes reported in Mato Grosso.
Meanwhile, the cotton harvest reached 8% on July 2. The winter wheat seeding reached 79%, with preplant and cover
fertilizer application under way.
The Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade published preliminary June 2023 fertilizer imports on July 1st. Around 149,400
mt/day were imported, a 24% decrease in comparison to June 2022. In the current pace, estimated imports for the current
month should reach 3.14 million mt.
EuroChem, through its subsidiary in Brazil, has increased its share in Fertilizantes Heringer from 51 to 80%, with an
investment of 230 million Brazilian reais ($46 million) in an auction of shares. The other majority shareholders remain
OCP S.A. and Nutrien Ltd., with shares of 10 and 9.5%, respectively.
Expected fertilizer tonnes in Brazil
Berth week MOP Urea AS MAP SSP TSP NP NPK Sulphur
Jun 26 to Jul 2 296,093 102,860 185,450 55,589 37,130 5,000 - 7,500 73,500
Jul 3 to Jul 9 117,575 1,500 41,800 54,450 50,800 - - 13,500 -
Jul 10 to Jul 16 103,011 17,050 117,351 135,750 67,000 34,450 12,000 2,000 -
Jul 17 to Jul 23 291,291 20,000 63,480 66,748 11,850 10,000 - - -
Jul 24 to Jul 30 10,700 17,000 48,580 25,780 31,000 - - - -
Jul 31 to Aug 6 14,090 - - - - - - - -
Aug 7 to Aug 13 - - - - - - - - -
Aug 14 to Aug 20 - - - - - - - - -
Aug 21 to Aug 27 - - - - - - - - -
832,760 158,410 456,661 338,317 197,780 49,450 12,000 23,000 73,500
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: Cargonave shipping agency.
© 2023 S&P Global

ANDA released their April 2023 statistics on July 1st. Deliveries of all fertilizers in April decreased 14% y/y to 2.31 million
mt, while domestic production decreased 22% y/y to 540,169 mt. In the cumulative period Jan-Apr 2023, deliveries
reached 10.87 million mt, down 4.4% from the same period last year.
Unigel has restarted its operations in the Camaçari, Bahia complex this week according to local news outlets. The
company will initially focus on automotive urea production.
Brazil fertilizer production figures
In metric tons
Product Jan-Apr 2022 Jan-Apr 2023 % chg
Urea 255,564 253,455 -1%
AN 59,539 62,023 4%
AS 35,001 36,245 4%

SSP 1,441,670 1,223,445 -15%

MAP 353,516 321,401 -9%
TSP 166,450 172,733 4%
NPK 27,645 25,979 -6%

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 MOP 88,430 104,052 18%
Potassium silicate 68,661 18,357 -73%

Ammonia 230,410 192,199 -17%

Phosphoric acid 652,421 639,276 -2%
Phosphate rock 1,552,371 1,595,789 3%
Sulphuric acid 1,193,790 1,323,273 11%
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: ANDA.

Central America
Incofe is expected to enter the market in the next couple of weeks to buy 30-40,000 mt prills and 30-40,000 mt granular
for August shipment to East and West Coast Central America.

Ecuador
A buyer is expected to enter the market shortly to buy 9,000 mt prills and 11,000 mt granular for August shipment.

Mexico
Mexican imports to May jumped by 63% to 791,000 mt, up from 484,000 mt in the first five months of 2022. Russian urea
dominated the market, accounting for 42% of all imports at 329,000 mt, marking a 126% increase from the 146,000 mt
imported in 2022.
Mexico urea imports (‘000 mt)
Origin May-2022 May-2023 Jan-May 2022 Jan-May 2023 % chg

Russia 56.0 51.0 146.0 329.0 125.3%

Brunei - - - 131.0 -

Qatar - 35.0 - 105.0 -

China - 4.0 - 53.0 -

United States 3.0 2.0 11.0 50.0 354.5%

Malaysia - - 23.0 32.0 39.1%

Trinidad & Tobago - - 42.0 28.0 -33.3%

United Arab Emirates - 23.0 - 23.0 -

Nigeria 49.0 - 94.0 23.0 -75.5%

Others 141.0 3.0 168.0 17.0 -89.9%

Total 249.0 118.0 484.0 791.0 63.4%

As of July 6, 2023.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.

© 2023 S&P Global.

Suppliers
Baltic Sea
Prilled sellers remain comfortable for July shipment post the last Indian tender. Demand from Africa and Latin America is
expected to emerge shortly and there is also speculation that an Indian tender could be announced 2H July for August
shipment. This would help support prices in the Baltic.

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 11

Russian producers of both prilled and granular have scheduled maintenance turnarounds in July and August. Salavat is
currently in turnaround at its 40,000 mt/year prilled/granular urea plant and is expected to restart mid-July.
Prilled urea spot prices have edged higher with a sale reported at $250/mt FOB and netbacks to European business
indicated at $270/mt FOB. Bids for a cargo of prills for end July shipment were heard at around $270/mt FOB this week.
Prices are up from $240-250/mt FOB last week.
Similarly, Baltic granular prices have also moved up to $270-300/mt FOB based on indications and netbacks to Brazil on
the low end. This is up from $250-290/mt FOB last week.
Freight from Russian Baltic ports to Brazil is indicated flat at $40/mt compared to $35-45/mt last week.

Black Sea
Russian Black Sea prills were similar to the Baltic at $270-300/mt FOB this week, up from $250-290/mt FOB last week.
Turkmen and Azeri tonnes were heard bid at $310/mt FOB against higher offers. Approximately 10-15,000 mt granular is
estimated to be available for July shipment ex-Poti/Batumi.
Russian granular urea prices headed higher this week as major market Brazil firmed. Spot prices were assessed higher at
$270-310/mt FOB, up from $250-300/mt FOB last week.

Ukraine
Ostchem is understood to have resumed ammonia production at its two ammonia lines at Cherkassy and its urea unit at
the site this week after a two week outage.

North Africa
Algeria
AOA is understood to have sold a 20,000 mt granular urea cargo to a trader at $360/mt FOB for August shipment. This
follows sales of two small cargoes for Europe at $350/mt FOB.
AOA is shipping its latest cargoes to the USA and Mexico while Sorfert has two cargoes headed to France in early July.

AOA shipments
Destination Vessel ‘000 mt Shipment date
January 203.3
February 239.4
March 155.1
April 302.4
May 242.0
United States CL Luzhou 50.0 03-Jun
Panama Pintail 38.2 07-Jun
Uruguay Inland Sea 37.5 10-Jun
Panama Lignum Grid 42.4 12-Jun
France UMS - Arcturus 20.7 13-Jun
France Louisa Bolten 30.8 21-Jun
June 219.6
USA Roadrunner Bulker 57.8 01-Jul
Mexico Genco Rhone 38.2 02-Jul
July 96.0
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 12

 Sorfert shipments
Destination Vessel ‘000 mt Shipment date
January 92.4
March 33.3
April 99.1
May 89.7
Uruguay Adastar 34.3 11-Jun
France Masha D 8.0 13-Jun
Germany Egbert Wagenborg 14.3 15-Jun
France Vertom Meridian 8.0 18-Jun
Brazil Puget Sound 33.5 26-Jun
Portugal Navin Harrier 7.5 30-Jun
June 64.6
France Fri Sea 3.3 01-Jul
France Sevkettin Sonay 14.9 04-Jul
July 18.2
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

Egypt
Egypt is said to be almost sold out of granular with virtually nothing left for July shipment and no Abu Qir prills available.
The majority of cargoes were sold to traders covering sales to Europe.
Kima reported July 6 the sale of 7,000 mt granular urea at $360/mt FOB for end July shipment to an open origin. This
marks a $5/mt price hike since MOPCO’s sale late last week at $355/mt FOB.
Mopco reported late July 6 the sale of two lots of 5,000 mt granular urea at $365/mt and $370/mt FOB for end July
shipment. This was not included in Fertecon’s assessment as it is lower than the 6,000 mt minimum and also was
reported after our 16:30 UK deadline for information.
Fertecon assessed the market at $360/mt FOB, up from $340-350/mt FOB last week.
Ameropa is understood to be in the freight market to load 13,500 mt urea in Egypt 3-6 July for shipment to Ipswich, UK.
There were several other freight inquiries to load 11,000 mt at Abu Qir port July 5-15 for shipment to Immingham and
Ipswich and for 20,000 mt to load at Damietta port 15-18 July for Newport and Avonmouth.

Middle East
AG
A 30,000 mt sale of granular urea, linked to Saudi producer Sabic, is understood to have been sold to a trader at $312/mt
FOB this week. The cargo is due to load in August, most likely for Australia.
AG producers look comfortable for July shipment following a number of sales to Oceania.

Bahrain/Sitra
Destination Vessel ‘000 mt Shipment date
January 45.0
February 81.8
March 93.0
April 69.3
May 95.0
Australia ID Pioneer 35.5 11-Jun
Myanmar Hinase 28.4 23-Jun
June 63.9
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 13

 Oman/Sur
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
January 196.0
February 133.5
March 170.0
April 109.1
May 218.1
India Prabhu Sumat 60.0 07-Jun
India Incredible Blue 45.0 25-Jun
June 105.0
India Jal Kalpataru 38.8 01-Jul
India Top Fortune 40.9 08-Jul
July 79.1
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

Oman/Sohar
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
January 92.0
February 137.5
March 66.8
April 165.5
May 187.0
Myanmar Viet Thuan 30.6 07-Jun
China Victory Light 20.0 22-Jun
India Marmara S 38.1 30-Jun
June 50.6
Singapore Swift Falcon 46.3 03-Jul
July 46.3
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

Qatar/Mesaieed
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
February 128.2
March 261.0
April 178.7
May 193.0
Australia Azisai 55.4
Australia Forever SW 45.0 11-Jun
Thailand Abram Schulte 61.3 19-Jun
UAE Trident Star 45.0 22-Jun
Madagascar IVS Sparrowhawk 33.4 01-Jun
June 199.1
Australia Federal Kudos 50.0 01-Jul
Brazil Latika Naree 33.9 01-Jul
July 53.9
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

Saudi Arabia/Jubail
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
March 573.0

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 14

 Saudi Arabia/Jubail
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
April 374.6
May 312.3
Thailand African Baza 50.0 05-Jun
India DL Lilac 33.7 05-Jun
Brazil Nordic BC Kiel 43.0 10-Jun
New Zealand Iris Harmony 38.6 17-Jun
South Africa Bulk Paraguay 50.0 18-Jun
India Moonbright 29.4 22-Jun
Australia Sumatra 38.9 23-Jun
Australia Pan Bonita 34.7 28-Jun
Bangladesh Maroudio 54.8 29-Jun
June 273.1
UAE Sea Guardian 51.7 04-Jul
July 51.7
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

UAE/Ruwais
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
January 191.5
February 188.0
March 169.6
April 238.9
May 178.4
Australia Spica Harmony 36.9 03-Jun
Sri Lanka Atilla 35.3 10-Jun
Bangladesh New Horizon 45.0 17-Jun
Mozambique Clara Insignia 50.0 22-Jun
June 167.2
India Nord Sound 45.0 02-Jul
July 45.0
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global Intelligence & Analytics
© 2023 by S&P Global Inc.

There is a freight inquiry to load 40,000 mt bulk urea in the AG 4-31 July for shipment to Mexico.

Iran
There is a freight inquiry to load 40,000 mt bulk urea at Bandar Abbas 4-31 July for shipment to west coast Mexico. There
was also an inquiry to load 25,000 mt bulk urea at Bik or Bandar Abbas 4-14 July for shipment to Iskenderun, Turkey.

East Asia
Mainland China
Export trade is expected to pick up by the second half of July as demand from the domestic market seasonally slows.
Spot prills trade was reported at $300-310 FOB, up from $290-300/mt FOB last week. Granular urea also moved higher to
$315-320, up from $300-310/mt FOB last week.
Chinese suppliers have been accelerating export sales to Southeast Asia and Oceania regions since the beginning of
May on the back of the easing export restriction and the sustained depreciation of Chinese currency against the US dollar
since early this year. In addition, India is expected to issue a new purchase tender by mid-July which is likely to boost the
export sentiment.

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 15

However, rumors started to circulate in the market over the past two days that China may start to restrain urea exports
again. The government may issue a new CIQ to control the total urea export, though there is no confirmation of this yet.
Production
Urea supply continued to decline with production dropping to 1.14 million mt at 77% of plant operating rates this week.
Coal-based production edged lower to 876,400 mt with 79% of plant operating rates following six producers having
temporary shut down during the week. On the other hand, natural gas-based production remained relatively stable at
271,120 mt with 73% of plant operating rates.
Urea production is expected to see a moderate recovery based on the expectation that producers will continue to ramp up
production after going through much of their inventories, while four to five producers may also resume operation from the
previous turnaround next week.
Stocks
Producer inventories bottomed out at a 13-month low level of 278,400 mt by the end of the week. While port inventories
increased to above 100,000 mt with granular mostly stocking up at Qinhuangdao and Yantai ports and prills to Huanghua
ports amid firmer expectations on export markets.

Southeast Asia
Brunei
Brunei producer BFI remains on turnaround. It is expected to restart in mid-July.

Indonesia
PIHC is expected to begin to have export cargoes available in 2H July or August.

Indonesia/Bontang
Destination Vessel '000 mt Shipment date
Domestic MV Simore 5.0 02-Jun
Philippines MV Long Tan 39 6.0 05-Jun
Domestic MV Sriwijaya Maju 3.5 13-Jun
As of July 6, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
© 2023 S&P Global.

Malaysia
Petronas reports that it has restarted its Gurun plant and that it will be fully operational by July 10. Its Bintulu plant came
back online last week. The producer has no spot cargoes to offer and is fully committed until August.

Vietnam
Ca Mau is understood to have sold a 40,000 mt granular urea cargo to a trader at $310-320/mt FOB for July shipment.
The cargo is likely to head to Australia, which has been in the market for cargoes due to the lack of contract supply from
Southeast Asian producers.

Exchange Rates
Exchange Rates (Local Currency: US$)
06/07/2023 29/06/2023 06/07/2022
€ Euro 0.91955 0.91445 0.96835
£ Pound Sterling 0.78687 0.78846 0.83215
Turkish Lira 26.0243 26.0163 16.9134
Rupee India 82.2356 82.022 79.0025
Real Brazil 4.84436 4.82906 5.35727
China RMB 7.23925 7.23789 6.70677

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 16

 Australian $ 1.49895 1.50896 1.46729

As of July 6, 2023
Source: oanda.com
© 2023 S&P Global.

Agriculture
Please find the latest Agriculture Summary on the Connect portal or by clicking here.

Feedstock
Please find the latest Feedstock Report on the Connect portal or by clicking here.

spglobal.com Fertecon | Nitrogen Report: Urea | 17

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