Evaluation of Off Grid Solar Energy

Harvesting Technologies (in the case of

Ethiopia): Cost, capacity (watt/ kilowatt), life time, and
Application.

Study team members:

1. Awoke Berihun
2. Rodas Getahun
3. Tesfaye Adisu
Table of content
1. Introduction
1.1. Latest trends in off grid solar energy harvesting world wide
1.2. Off grid solar panel installation and distribution in Ethiopia.
2. Methodology
3. Result and discussion
4. Conclusion

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1. Introduction

1.1 Latest trends in off grid solar energy harvesting

The number of people living without electricity access has, after several decades of dedicated effort,
dipped below one billion in 2016 (IRENA 2019). The world is steadily progressing towards
universal access to electricity, with the global electrification rate reaching 87% in 2016. Access
rates in rural areas – where most of those without access live have been growing rapidly and now
stand at about 76% (World Bank Group, 2018). Strong political commitment to the energy access
agenda at the national and global level, combined with financing, local entrepreneurship and
technological innovations, have set the stage for a final push towards universal electricity access by
2030 – a target within the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).

Today we have the technologies and the solutions that can dramatically accelerate the growth
trajectory of electricity access. Off-grid renewable energy solutions, including stand-alone systems
and mini-grids, have emerged as a mainstream, cost-competitive option to expand access to
electricity. Tremendous progress has been made in recent years as technology costs have
plummeted, innovation in delivery models and financing has picked up, and a more diverse set of
stakeholders, including communities, local entrepreneurs and the private sector, have become
engaged in the sector. The number of people benefiting from off-grid renewable energy solutions
grew six-fold between 2011 and 2016, reaching more than 133 million (IRENA, 2018a). Besides
providing electricity services for households, off-grid solutions are also increasingly supporting
public services (e.g., education, water and primary health care) and livelihoods (e.g., in agriculture).

Off-grid renewable energy solutions represent a viable electrification solution that is rapidly
scalable, environmentally sustainable, can be tailored to local conditions and, importantly, has the
potential to empower rural communities, especially the youth and women. The next phase of
expansion will require these solutions to play a fundamental role. It is estimated that by 2030,
renewable energy sources will power over 60% of new electricity access, and stand-alone and mini-
grid systems will provide the means for almost half of new access (IEA, 2017).

The convergence of several powerful factors has opened a window of opportunity for achieving
universal access to electricity supported by off-grid solutions (Figure 1). Rapid decreases in
technology costs have meant that off-grid renewable energy solutions are now the cost-competitive
choice for expanding electricity access in many unelectrified areas. Since 2009, for instance, solar
PV module costs have fallen by more than 80% while, globally, the cost of solar PV power declined
by 73% from 2010 to 2017 (IRENA, 2018b).

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Steeply declining costs of the most important components of off-grid systems, combined with an
equally remarkable increase in efficiency of end- use appliances, have further lowered prices and
increased affordability. Between 2010 and 2016, for instance, the prices of main components of
stand- alone solar home systems – LED lights and batteries (Li-ion) – dropped by 80% and 73%,
respectively (IFC, 2018).

figure 1 Case for off-grid renewable energy solutions

figure 2: Population served by off-grid renewable energy solutions (IRENA 2019)

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 2,275,877
6.173.845 products sold world

1,854,920
OGS products sold

1,256,110

269,911
194,827
118,440 83,872
32,606 17,026 61,902
8,354
Sub-Saharan West Africa East Africa Central Africa Southern South Asia East Asia & Latin America Middle East & Europe & North America
Africa Africa Pacific & Caribbean North Africa Central Asia

figure 3. Volume of off-grid solar Products Sold by region (2018 January - June).
In 2017, the global off-grid solar (OGS) sector is providing improved electricity access to an
estimated 73 million households, or over 360 million people, thus transforming lives that were
previously reliant on kerosene and solid fuels for most of their lighting needs. This market has
evolved and expanded substantially since 2010, when IFC released its first off-grid lighting report.
At that stage this was a market marked by low awareness, a single category of lighting-oriented
products, and a limited geographical presence (mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and India).

figure 4 Sales Volumes and Values by Product Category – Sub-Saharan Africa

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 1.2 Off grid solar panel installation and distribution in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa and is among one of the fastest developing nations on the
continent. In terms of population, the country is home to over 109 million people in 2018 according
to world bank group, which makes it the second most populous country in Africa (behind Nigeria
and just ahead of Egypt). As a result of Ethiopia’s rapid GDP growth over the past decade,
electricity demand has also been increasing steadily. Despite Ethiopia’s abundant natural resources
and huge energy potential, the country is experiencing energy shortages as it struggles to meet the
growing electricity demand, which is forecasted to grow by approximately 30% annually.

Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country and its second largest in terms of population, while
also being one of the poorest countries in Africa. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) is currently
implementing the second phase of its Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II), which aims for
Ethiopia to achieve lower middle income and carbon-neutral status by 2025.1 Along with Ethiopia’s
ambitious poverty reduction strategies and targets, the government has recently released its National
Electrification Plan 2.0 (NEP 2.0), which strives for universal electrification by 2025 through a mix
of on- and off-grid energy solutions. The following statistics provide insight into Ethiopia’s country
context:

➢ Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 was $84.4 billion, with an average per capita income
of $772. 

➢ In 2019, the estimated population was approximately 110 million people, with more than 80
percent living in rural areas (The World Bank, “Population, Total | Data).
➢ From 2011 to 2016, poverty dropped by 20 percent in Ethiopia. However, poverty in rural
areas increased during the same time frame (The World Bank, “Poverty and Household
Welfare in Ethiopia, 2011-2016).

Grid Electrification: The Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy (MOWIE) is the overall
governing body of the energy sector in Ethiopia. Under MOWIE, sit the Ethiopian Electric Utility
(EEU), which is in charge of power distribution, the Ethiopian Energy Authority (EEA), which is
the regulator, the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), which oversees power generation and
transmission, and the State Minister, which is in charge of the electricity sector. 


Mini-Grid Sector Overview: Currently, there are only two companies operating in the mini-grid
space in Ethiopia, with a total of two operational mini-grids, and four more under construction. This
market assessment contains an analysis by Power Africa that identifies areas with high
concentrations of high consumer power households that are beyond ten kilometres (km) from

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medium voltage grid lines as particularly attractive sites for mini-grids, particularly in the Eastern
Oromia region and the Northern Amhara region, to highlight a few.

Currently, the licensing process for mini-grids is prohibitively cumbersome, and specific policies
within the energy regulations for off-grid technologies have been drafted but not yet approved,
including the Directive for Off-grid and Tariff Methodology Guidelines.

Pico-Solar Sector Overview: Ethiopia’s pico-solar sector has seen strong growth in the last few
years, with the most growth pertaining to systems ranging in size from 0 to 1.5 watt-peak (Wp)
systems. Large systems over 20 Wp have seen virtually no sales according to GOGLA sales data for
2017 and 2018.

800000

700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Somalia Tanzania Zambia

H2 2018 H1 2018 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2016 H1 2016

figure 5: Volume of Products Sold in Selected African Countries

There are a range of support programs for off-grid energy solutions in Ethiopia which are largely
financed by the international donor community, such as IFC’s Lighting Africa, and the U.S.
Government’s Power Africa initiative. Support from the international community covers broad
areas, such as technical assistance to small and medium enterprises, grant funding, capacity
building, implementation support for the NEP 2.0, access to finance, and many others. Additionally,
the Solar Energy Development Association (SEDA-E) is a non-profit association formed by
stakeholders in the off-grid energy sector in Ethiopia to promote the interests of the solar industry to
the government and public sectors.

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 28.40
600000

8.41
10 5.38 4.66
3.31
2.39
1.29 1.25 1.45
500000

540,448
Vallue of OGS products sold (million US$)

400000

Volume of OGS products sold

300000

251,597

200000

88,631
100000
73,471
63,561 61,876
43,196

0 0

India Kenya Ethiopia Bangladesh Yemen Nigeria Cameroon Uganda Tanzania Myanmar

Value of the product sold Volume of Products Sold - Cash

Figure 6: Top 10 Country Markets by Volume of Products Sold - Cash

82.57 500,000

20.27 17.40
434,524 10.04 10.64 10.86 12.31

10 5.80
3.60
2.25
400,000
Vallue of OGS products sold (million US$)

300,000

Volume of OGS products sold

200,000

115,969

100,000

62,096
51,994 46,779 42,181
27,682 25,676 24,153
16,278

0 -

Kenya Uganda Rwanda Zambia Nigeria Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire Tanzania Togo Myanmar

Value of product sold - PAYGo Volume of Products Sold - PAYGo

Figure 7: Top 10 Country Markets by Volume of Products Sold - PAYGo

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2. Methodology

The methodology used for this analysis is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), a structured
technique for dealing with multi-criteria decisions making. It was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in
the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. The AHP provides a
comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and
quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative
solutions.

The following Criteria’s are selected for comparison of different types of solar energy harvesting
technologies

1. Cost: Includes all types of cost related to the acquisition of a solar system (cost of a solar
panel, batteries, accessories and maintenance costs).
2. Capacity: Is the power that the solar panel can produce in a daytime (Watt peak).
3. Lifetime: Is the number of years that the solar panel can work for.
4. EROI: (Energy Return of Investment) is the number of years that the solar panel have to
work to return back the energy used to produce it.

Types of technologies used to produce solar panels

Single crystal silicon (mono-Si) solar cells: Monocrystalline (also called single crystal) panels
use solar cells that are
cut from a piece of silicon grown from a single, uniform crystal.
Monocrystalline panels are among the most efficient yet most expensive on the market.
They require the highest purity silicon and have the most involved manufacturing process.

Multi-crystal silicon (multi-Si) solar cells: Multi-crystalline (also called
polycrystalline) panels use
solar cells that
are cut from multifaceted silicon crystals.
They are less uniform in appearance than
monocrystalline cells, resembling pieces
of shattered glass. These are the most
common solar
panels on the market, being less expensive than monocrystalline silicon. They are also less efficient,
though the performance gap has begun to close
in recent years.

Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) solar cells: Thin film solar panels are made by placing thin layers of
semiconductor material onto various surfaces, usually on glass. The term thin film refers to the
amount of semiconductor material used. It is applied in a thin film to a surface structure, such as a
sheet of glass. Contrary to popular belief, most thin film panels are not flexible. Overall, thin film
solar panels
offer the lowest manufacturing costs, and are becoming more prevalent in the industry.

There are three main types of thin film used:

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Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) is a semiconductor compound formed
from cadmium and tellurium.
CdTe solar
panels are manufactured on glass. They
are the most common type of thin film
solar
panel on the market and the most cost-effective to manufacture. CdTe panels perform significantly
better in high temperatures and in low-light conditions.

Amorphous silicon(a-Si) is the non-crystalline
form of silicon and was the first thin film
material
to yield a commercial product,
first used in consumer items such as
calculators. It can be deposited
in thin
layers onto a variety of surfaces and offers
lower costs than traditional crystalline silicon,
though it is less efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.

Copper, Indium, Gallium, Selenide (CIGS) is a compound semiconductor that can be deposited onto
many different materials. CIGS has only recently become available
for small commercial
applications, and is considered a developing PV technology.

Figure 8: PV Production by Technology Percentage of Global Annual Production

Organic solar cells (OPV) and Perovskite solar cells (emerging): also called the third generation
solar cells. The technology to produce this solar cells is not mature yet but they are becoming
interesting because of their cheap production with high through put and low- temperature
deposition techniques, low energy payback times due to a fabrication process avoiding
expensive purifi- cation methods and high versatility.

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We can categorise the application of a solar photovoltaics panel in to grid tied solar installation and
off-grid solar applications. Then off-grid solar applications can be categorised into four levels based
on the capacity and the ability to fulfil different needs.

➢ Lanterns: a small portable source of light which is charged by sun light.

➢ Pico-solar system: is a solar light to electricity converting system with a task of lighting and
phone charging.
➢ Solar household system: is solar light to electricity converting system with a capacity for
general lighting and phone charging and television, fan and medium-power appliances.
➢ Mini-grid system: with this system we can use high-power appliances in addition to the solar
household system.

Table 1: Product Categories - Off-Grid Solar Lighting Products

Solar module capacity , Watt
Overall category
Peak (Wp)
0 – 1.499 Wp (indicative)
Portable Lanterns
1.5 – 2.999 Wp (indicative)
Categorization by services
provided by product
Single Light only
Single Light & Mobile Charging
Corresponding level of Multi-Tier
Framework energy access enabled by use
of product
Enables partial Tier 1 Electricity Access to
an individual person
Enables full Tier 1 Electricity Access to at
least one person and contributes to a full
household

Multi-light Multiple Light & Mobile Enables full Tier 1 Electricity Access to at
3 – 10.999 Wp (indicative)
Systems Charging least one person up to a full household

SHS, Entry Level (3-4 lights,

11 – 20.999 Wp Enables full Tier 1 Electricity Access to a
phone charging, powering radio,
household
fan etc.)
SHS, Basic capacity (as above
Enables full Tier 2 Electricity Access to a
Solar Home plus power for TV, additional
21 – 49.999 Wp household when coupled with high-
Systems lights, appliances & extended
efficiency appliances
capacity)
SHS, Medium capacity (as above
50 Wp +
but with extended capacities) Enables full Tier 2 Electricity Access to a
household even using conventional
Higher capacity (as above but appliances
Mini-grid system 1000Wp +
with extended households)

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The hierarchical structures are drown as shown below in the diagram for different application.

Figure 9: Hierarchical structures of different criterions with different alternative technologies for
different application
For this decision making process a total of 12 experts have been participated. Experts participated
through a questioner to compare the impotence of each criterion for different application. The pair
wise comparison of the different technologies against each criterion is done based on state of the art
literature review.

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3. Result and discussion

For a lantern application lifetime is the most important criteria then capacity then energy return of
investment then cost. The data from these experts has a consistence ratio of 0.3 and 73.1% group
consensus which moderate

Criterial weight for a lantern

35%
32%
30%
26%
25% 22%
20%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Cost Capacity Lifetime EROI

Figure 10: The weight of weights the four criterions for a lantern application from AHP pair wise
analysis.

60% mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites
53%
51%
for lantern application
50%
42%
39% 39%
40% 37%

30%
30% 28%

20%
14%
11% 10% 12% 11%
10%
10% 7% 6%

0%
Cost Capasity Lifetime EROI

Figure 11: The weight of different technologies to each criterion for a lantern application.
The evaluation of each technology to each criteria were done from literature reviews, latest trends
and facts. As it is seen on figure 11 organic photovoltaics and perovskite technologies are highly
favourites because of their low temperature processing (below 160oC), cheaper and very low
amount of materials, flexibility which helps for roll-to-roll production and have high throughput.

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For crystalline technologies cost is high because of a tick crystalline silicon wafer production which
is highly energy intensive and it takes more material compared to thin films and flexible organic
photovoltaics. The energy intensive ness of the production also translates to EROI, so crystalline
silicone solar cells have lower evaluation in energy payback time.

For the criterion capacity and lifetime have better evaluation due to the maturity of the
technologies.

But they are in a close range that we can see on the alternative choice OPV & perovskites are the
favourites. This is because cost and EROI have a close evaluation to lifetime and capacity.

Alternatives for Lantern

30% 28%
27%
26%
25%

20% 19%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1
mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites

Figure 12: Percent suitability of different technologies for a lantern application.

For Pico-solar system the experts gave a higher value for life time and lowest value for cost. And
this data has a consistency ratio of 0.5% and 84.9% group consensus which high.

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 Criterial weight for Pico-solar system
45%
41%
40%

35%

30%

25%
21%
20%
20% 18%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Cost Capacity Lifetime EROI

Figure 13: The weight of weights the four criterions for a Pico-solar system application from AHP
pair wise analysis.

mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites
50%
for pico-solar system application
45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Cost Capasity Lifetime EROI

Figure 14: The weight of different technologies to each criterion for a pico-solar system application.

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 Alternative for Pico-solar system

35% 32%

30% 27%
25% 22%

20% 19%

15%

10%

5%

0%
mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites

Figure 15: Percent suitability of different technologies for a Pico-solar system application.
Multi crystalline Silicon (multi-Si) solar cells come out clearly as a favourite for pico-solar system
application because the experts’ evaluation and that the technology has lower cost higher lifetime.
Mono crystalline silicon solar cells are also in a close range.

For a Solar household system and mini-grid application the final results are almost the same. The
criteria lifetime is given the highest value (42%) compared to the other two applications (lantern
and pico-solar system). The consistency ration and the group consensus and very close for the two
applications.

Criterial weight for SHS

45% 42%
40%
35%
30%
25% 23%
21%
20%
14%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Cost Capacity Lifetime EROI

Figure 16: The weight of weights the four criterions for a solar home system(SHS) application from
AHP pair wise analysis.

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 60% mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites
for SHS application
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Cost Capasity Lifetime EROI

Figure 17: The weight of different technologies to each criterion for a pico-solar system application.

Alternateves for SHS

35%
30%
30% 27%
25%
25%

20% 18%

15%

10%

5%

0%
mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites

Figure 18: Percent suitability of different technologies for a solar home system (SHS) application.
The second important criterion is EROI which is related to energy payback time and is an important
criterion for larger applications.

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 Criterial weight for Mini-grid system
45% 42%
40%

35%

30%

25% 21% 23%

20%
14%
15%

10%

5%

0%
Cost Capacity Lifetime EROI

Figure 19: The weight of weights the four criterions for a Mini-grid system application from AHP
pair wise analysis.

60% mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites
for mini-grid application
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Cost Capasity Lifetime EROI

Figure 20: The weight of different technologies to each criterion for a mini-grid application.

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 Alternative for Mini-grid system
35%

30% 28% 29%

25% 24%

19%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1
mono-Si multi-Si Thin film (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si) OPV & Perovskites

Figure 21: Percent suitability of different technologies for a Mini-grid system application.

Generally, for those two applications crystalline silicon technologies are selected. Multi-Si solar
cells are more suitable for SHS and for mini-grid application mono-Si and multi-Si are almost
equally favourable.

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4. Conclusion

Different photovoltaics technologies are suitable for different off-grid energy harvesting and
beyond off-grid application. But crystalline silicon technologies are suitable for almost all
application because of the maturity the technology and industry of scale. Ninety-five percent of
today’s solar panel production is crystalline silicon solar panels. Other technologies are also real
contenders and have many advantages over crystalline silicon photovoltaics.

According to the experts participated and the analysis with AHP for a portable lantern and very
small solar equipment organic and perovskite solar panels are well suited. Multi-Si solar panels can
be also used as a second choice.

For the rest applications crystalline silicon technologies mainly multi-Si can be used because of the
maturity the technology the lifetime of the product is longer and because of the industry of scale the
cost and energy payback time is lower. Thin film photovoltaics are not selected in any of the
application because of the immaturity of the technologies, presences of some toxic metals,
presences of scarce metals and are produced for special purpose applications.

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