Probability Calculus

Lecture 11
Heindl
Mean Value
• If we measure the same parameter x multiple times, the results are
never exact the same!
• We can calculate the mean value x
Example
Sample Value
1 54,728
2 54,653 Value
3 54,331 54,900
54,800
4 54,057 54,700
5 54,591 54,600
6 54,598 54,500
54,400
7 54,092
54,300
8 54,492 54,200
9 54,625 54,100

10 54,477 54,000
53,900
0 2 4 6 8 10

sum 544,644
mean value 54,464
Reproduce the Table with Excel
Produce 10 random numbers, sum, mean value
The Error
• Mean square error
• For each value we need the mean value and the error
• The error is squared to obtain a positive sign and to amplify large
errors
• Attention: Sometimes some errors are so large that they cannot be
used any further because they could be the result of an incorrect
measurement.
Exercise
Calculate the mean error with table calculation
Galton Board
• Every ball drops over a number of nails
• At each nail, the probability is
p(left)=0.5, p(right)=0.5
• The balls are collected
• The height of the column gives the probability
Exercise
• Reproduce the Galton Board with Excel
Bell Curve
Exercise
We have 1000 events with an normal distribution.
• How many events are in the range between –σ and +σ
• How many events are in the range between –2σ and +2σ
• Is there any event outside of 3σ
Six Sigma
Bell Curve (Gaussian Curve)
• Describes the probability density function
Different parameters
Cumulative distribution function
Source: The Normal Distribution Sue Gordon
Exercise