CREDIT

MARKET
INDICATOR
A comprehensive measure
of retail lending health trends

April 2023 @2023 TransUnion CIBIL Credit Market Indicator

CONTENT
→ Executive Summary
→ Overall Credit Market Conditions
→ Demand and Supply Trends
→ Changes in Consumer Behavior
and Credit Performance

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 OVERALL
CREDIT
MARKET
CONDITIONS
3
Retail credit market continues
to grow through the year

Improvement in demand and Supply Credit Market Indicator (CMI)

• Credit growth in India remained robust despite uncertain global 120
macroeconomic factors 110
• Consumption-led lending continues to catalyze credit market growth 100
100
93

CMI Value
• Slow down in demand for home loans
90
80
80

Steady portfolio growth 70

• Credit market continues its growth trajectory 60

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
• Credit performance continues to improve on year-on-year basis
as delinquencies continue to be lower

December 2022 CMI value is provisional and subject to revision as additional data get
reported to the TransUnion CIBIL credit bureau.

4
Credit health across lender categories continued to improve owing to
better credit activity and improvement in asset quality

CMI by Lender Category

Key Metric for 3M Ended Dec - 2022
130
PSU PVT
Metric NBFC 120
Banks Banks
Accounts 110 106 103
Disbursed (YoY) 14% 10% 13%
100 95 101

CMI Value
Amount 17% 13% 13% 90 82
Disbursed (YoY) 94 97
80
Outstanding
18% 21% 20% 81
Balances (YoY) 70
Balance Level 60
-36 bps -69 bps -149 bps
90+ DPD (YoY)
50

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22
PSU PVT NBFC

5
Credit growth is solid across all major states

Dec’22 CMI
Dec-2022: YoY Change in CMI for Top 12 States
by State
16

Change in CMI (points)

12
12
10 10 10
9 9
8 8
8 7 7 7
6

4
Legend:
>= 102
0
100 – 101 MH TN KA GJ UP TS AP RJ KL MP HR DL
90 – 99
Portfolio < 1% MH: Maharashtra; TN: Tamil Nadu; KA: Karnataka; GJ: Gujarat; UP: Uttar Pradesh; TS: Telangana;
AP: Andhra Pradesh; RJ: Rajasthan; KL: Kerala; MP: Madhya Pradesh; HR: Haryana; DL: Delhi;
Map not to scale Top 12 states selected based on the retail lending portfolio size

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 6

DEMAND
AND
SUPPLY
TRENDS
7
Credit demand continues its growth trajectory

CMI Demand
240

Inquiry volumes continue to grow month over month through 200

Dec 2022, resultant of consistent demand increase driven by

CMI Value
160
personal loans and credit cards
120 101 99
80
80

40

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 8
Credit growth remained robust with younger consumers driving demand,
share in demand for rural increased marginally

Q4 2022 vs Inquiry Volumes

% Share Q4 2021 200
180
Semi-urban &
48% +1%
Rural Consumers 160
127

Indexed Values
Younger 120
43% +3%
Consumers 86
80
New-to-Credit 14% -8%
Consumers 40

Below Prime
40% +4% 0
Consumers

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Index: Jan-20 = 100

CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Below Prime = 300–730; Younger Consumers – 18-30 years

Source: TransUnion CIBIL 9

Marked increase in demand for credit cards and personal loans,
indicating growing adoption of consumption-led credit products

Inquiry Volumes by Product Type (3M Ended — Dec 2022)

Compared
to Q4 ‘21 19% 32% 7% 5% 82% 30% 77%

100%
77%
80%
YoY Growth Rate

60% 50%

40% 29%

20% 15%
1% 3%
0%
-1%
-20%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 10

 Young consumers now account for major share of demand;
Rural & Semi-Urban borrowers continue to have increased share

Inquiry Volumes by Consumer Age Inquiry Volumes by City Tier

(3M Ended Period) (3M Ended Period)

100% 100%
18% 16% 46+
21% Metro
33% 32% 31%
80% 80%
% of Inquiries

% of Inquiries
42% 41% Urban
60% 43% 60% 21% 21%
31-45 21%

40% 40% Semi-urban

25% 26% 26%

20% 40% 43% 20%

36% 18-30
20% 21% 22% Rural
0% 0%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 11

Continued growth in origination reflective of the positive
lender sentiment; Home Loan demand is slowing

YoY Growth in Originations

(3M ended Dec-2022) CMI Supply
240
Product Volume Value
200
Home Loan -6% -2%

CMI Value
160
LAP 11% 12%

Auto Loan 12% 31% 120 99

89 94
Two Wheeler Loan 23% 40% 80
Personal Loan 23% 23%
40
Credit Card 24% - 

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Consumer Durable Loan 13% 6%

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 12

Supply has slight dropped after the festive
season peak in third quarter of 2022

Origination Volumes
Q4 2022 vs
% Share Q4 2021 200

Semi-urban &
58% +1% 160 147
Rural Consumers 154

Indexed Values
Younger 120 104
34% +1%
Consumers
80
New-to-Credit 16% -4%
Consumers 40

Below Prime
31% +1% 0
Consumers

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Index: Jan-20 = 100

CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Below Prime = 300–730; Younger Consumers – 18-30 years

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 13

 Approval rates have reduced for a few products compared
to previous year resultant of strong growth in inquiries

Approval Rates by Product Type

3M Ended Dec-21 3M Ended Dec-22

60%
54%

50%
% of Matched Inquiries

44% 45%
42% 41% 39%
40% 35%
30%
30% 27% 28%
25% 25%
21% 21%
20%

10%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Approval rate is calculated as the percentage of accounts which were opened within the next 90 days of the enquiry for home loans, commercial vehicle,
construction equipment and education loans; (enquiry Month – July,Aug,Sep); and within the next 30 days of enquiry for all other loans.
(Enquiry month – Sep,Oct,Nov)

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 14

Growth in loans disbursed in driven by NBFC and Fintech lenders

Origination Volumes by Product Type (3M Ended — Dec 2022)

Compared
to Q4 ‘21 18% 22% -9% -3% 80% 42% 28%

40%

23% 23% 24%

YoY Growth Rate

20%
12% 13%
11%

0%

-6%

-20%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 15

 Share of consumers in origination by age and geography has remains
consistent in last 3 years

Origination by Consumer Age Origination by City Tier

(3M Ended Period) (3M Ended Period)

100% 100%
46+ 22% 23% 23% Metro
26% 23% 23%
80% 80%
% of Consumers

% of Consumers
20% 19% 19%
Urban
60% 60%
45%
44% 44% 31-45

40% 40% 32% 32% 32%

Semi-urban

20% 20%
29% 33% 34% 18-30 26% 25% 26% Rural
0% 0%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 16

Lenders continue to source new-to-credit (NTC) consumers with caution

Origination Volume by Risk Tier Approval Rates by ETC/NTC

(3M Ended Period) (3M Ended Period)
ETC NTC
100%
40%
20% 16% NTC 35%
22% 33%
80% 15%
16% 30% 35% 27%

Approval Rate (%)

16%
% of Consumers

Above 32%
60% prime
39%
33% 34% 20% 24%
40% Prime

20% 10%
29% 30% 31% Below
prime
0%
0%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22
CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Subprime = 300–680; Near prime = 681–730;
Prime = 731–770; Prime plus = 771–790; Super prime = 791-900

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 17

 CHANGES IN
CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR AND
CREDIT
PERFORMANCE
18
Portfolio balances continue to show growth across products with improvement
in credit activity as well as positive lender sentiments

YoY Growth in Outstanding

Balances (Dec-2022)

Product Value CMI Consumer Behavior

Home Loan 16% 120

109
LAP 13%
98
Auto Loan 23%

CMI Value
100

Two Wheeler Loan 23%

Personal Loan 33% 80 73

Credit Card 19%

Consumer Durable Loan 44% 60

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 19
Strong growth in credit active consumers since last year; Young
consumers offer a good opportunity to increase credit penetration

Growth in Credit Active Consumers Credit Penetration by Consumer Age

20% 40%

% of Adult Population
15% 30% 27%
16%
YoY Growth Rate

14% 21%
25%
10% 20%
10% 18%
10%
15%
5% 10%
11%

0% 0%
Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22

Credit penetration is the percentage of credit active population to the total

18-30 31-45 46+
adult population
Source: TransUnion CIBIL,
World Bank Database

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Credit performance continues to improve year-on-year
across products, except Credit Cards

Balance-level 90+ DPD by

Product (Dec-2022) CMI Performance

YoY
Product 90+ Rate Change (Bps) 120

Home Loan 1.21% -39

100 95
LAP 2.71% -133

CMI Value
77
Auto Loan 0.90% -39 80 72

Two Wheeler Loan 1.89% -162

60
Personal Loan 1.00% -14

Credit Card 2.31% 25 40

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Dec-20

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22
Consumer Durable Loan 1.64% -27

Higher value of performance CMI reflects better performance

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 21

 Vintage delinquency is lower than the previous year except for Credit cards
and CDL; PL and CDL vintage is higher than the pre-pandemic period

Vintage Delinquency by Product Type

Q4 2019 Q4 2021 Q4 2022
12%
10%
9%
% Accounts Ever 30+

9% 9%

8% 7%
in 6 Months

7% 7%
6% 6% 6%
6% 6%
5%
5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
4% 4% 3%
2%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Vintage delinquency is calculated as percent of accounts ever 30+dpd in 6 months from origination
Origination of Q2 2019, Q2 2021, Q2 2022, vintages measured in Q4 2019, Q4 2021, Q4 2022

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 22

Proportion of Prime and above has increased; higher upgrades in the
Near Prime segment showing improved consumer behavior

Consumer Distribution by Risk Tier Near Prime Segment 12 Month

Score Migration

100% 5% 100%
6% 6%
14% 14% 14% Super prime 33% 34%
80% 80% 39%
Upgrade
% of Consumers

% of Consumers
28% 29% Prime Plus
32%
60% 60%
Prime
40% 38% Same
40% 24% 22% 40% 41%
23% Near prime
Downgrade
20% Subprime 20%
29% 29% 27% 28%
25% 20%
0% 0%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22

CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Subprime = 300–680; Near prime = 681–730;
Prime = 731–770; Prime plus = 771–790; Super prime = 791-900

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 23

Collection efficiencies are deteriorating for a few products such as
PL, Credit Cards and LAP

30-59 DPD Roll Back + Cure Rates by Product Type (3M Ended Period)
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22
30% 28%
25% 25% 26%
23% 24%
25% 23%
21% 21%
% Accounts Cured

19% 19%
or Rolled Back

20% 18%
17%
15% 15% 15%
15% 12%
11% 11%
10%
7%
5%
5%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Roll Back + Cure Rate (30-59 DPD bucket) is the percent of accounts in 30-59 DPD in the previous month,
which rolled back, to 1-29 DPD bucket or were normalized to 0 DPD in the current month (Sep, Oct, Nov)

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 24

 Disclaimer

This Presentation is prepared by TransUnion CIBIL Limited (TU CIBIL). This Presentation is based on collation of information, substantially, provided by credit
institutions who are members with TU CIBIL. While TU CIBIL takes reasonable care in preparing the Presentation , TU CIBIL shall not be responsible for errors
and/or omissions caused by inaccurate or inadequate information submitted to it by credit institutions. Further, TU CIBIL does not guarantee the adequacy
or completeness of the information in the Presentation and/or its suitability for any specific purpose nor is TU CIBIL responsible for any access or reliance
on the Presentation and that TU CIBIL expressly disclaims all such liability. This Presentation is not a recommendation for rejection / denial or acceptance of
any application nor any recommendation by TU CIBIL to (i) lend or not to lend; (ii) enter into or not to enter into any financial transaction with the concerned
individual/entity. The user should carry out all the necessary analysis that is prudent in its opinion before making any decisions based on the Information
contained in this Presentation. The use of the Presentation is governed by the provisions of the Credit Information Companies (Regulation) Act, 2005, the
Credit Information Companies Regulations, 2006, Credit Information Companies Rules, 2006. No part of this presentation should be copied, circulated,
published without prior approvals.

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